Ferrexpo Share Price Plunges as Ukraine Peace Talks Stall – FXPO Stock Outlook on 3 December 2025

Ferrexpo plc (LON: FXPO), the Ukrainian iron-ore pellet producer listed in London, is back in the volatility spotlight. Midday on 3 December 2025, the stock was down around 14% to roughly 67p, making it the biggest faller on London’s small‑caps index and marking its steepest one‑day drop since May. ^[1]

The immediate trigger: a Reuters report that high‑level talks between the United States and Russia failed to produce progress toward a peace deal in Ukraine, abruptly cooling recent optimism that had helped drive a powerful November rebound in Ferrexpo’s share price. ^[2]

Data and analysis in this article are as of mid‑day London time on 3 December 2025 and are for information only, not personal investment advice.

Ferrexpo share price today: from breakout to brutal reversal

At around 67p, Ferrexpo shares are down roughly 14% on the day and were recently quoted around 67–69p in London, with intraday lows reported near 64.4p and a prior close of 77.9p. ^[3]

That’s a sharp reversal from the strong rally seen over the past two weeks:

On 22–23 November, MarketBeat flagged Ferrexpo as trading up about 8%, as the price climbed into the high‑50s pence on volumes more than 150% above average. ^[4]
On 25 November, the stock then surged 22.4% in a single session, hitting an intraday high of 73.56p and closing around 70.6p, with trading volume more than triple normal levels. ^[5]
By 2 December, technical site StockInvest.us noted Ferrexpo had risen in eight of the last ten sessions, was up about 62% over two weeks, and closed at 77.9p, with intraday volatility above 8%. The site described FXPO as “very high risk” based on its recent price swings. ^[6]

So today’s sell‑off isn’t happening in isolation. It’s a whiplash move at the end of a fast, momentum‑driven breakout. As Reuters points out, even after recent gains, Ferrexpo’s shares were still down about 26% year‑to‑date versus a roughly 8% gain in London’s small‑caps index. ^[7]

Longer‑term, the story is even harsher: since the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ferrexpo’s shares have fallen around two‑thirds, and independent fundamental research notes a total decline of over 80% from peak levels as the war and regulatory disputes hammered cash flow and sentiment. ^[8]

What triggered today’s Ferrexpo sell‑off?

Today’s move is not about a company‑specific announcement; it’s about geopolitics getting uglier again.

A Reuters piece carried on TradingView reports that Ferrexpo shares fell about 14.25% to 67.19p after news that the United States and Russia failed to reach a compromise on a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. That made Ferrexpo the top loser on London’s small‑caps index, even as the broader market was slightly up on the day. ^[9]

For Ferrexpo, which mines and processes iron ore entirely in central Ukraine and relies on fragile logistics through Ukrainian rail and alternative export routes, the war is not background noise — it is the investment case. An improvement in peace prospects is a direct upside catalyst; disappointment is a direct hit to valuation.

In other words, today’s drop is the market repricing the probability of “good news in Ukraine” back down after a strong, speculative run‑up.

Operational picture: production, VAT squeeze and war damage

Behind the share‑price fireworks is a company still trying to run a heavy industrial operation in a warzone and under a very unfriendly tax regime.

Production in 2025: record quarter, then forced scaling back

In 1Q 2025, Ferrexpo reported its highest quarterly production since the invasion, with 2.1 million tonnes of commercial output:
- 1.3 million tonnes of pellets
- 0.8 million tonnes of 67% Fe concentrate, helped by strong demand from Asian customers. ^[10]
However, because Ukrainian authorities suspended VAT refunds, Ferrexpo cut back from operating two pellet lines to just one during the quarter, citing the VAT issue as the reason for reducing output. ^[11]
In 3Q 2025, the company reported 1.51 million tonnes of commercial production, about 3.3% higher than 2Q but still 29% below 1Q levels. ^[12]
- Pellet production dropped 22% quarter‑on‑quarter to about 639,000 tonnes.
- Concentrate output jumped to roughly 871,000 tonnes, as Ferrexpo leaned harder into selling high‑grade concentrates, particularly to Chinese buyers. ^[13]

Across the first nine months of 2025, total commercial production was about 5.07 million tonnes, slightly above the same period in 2024 — an impressive feat given the circumstances, but still far below pre‑war capacity of around 12 million tonnes per year. ^[14]

VAT refunds: a slow financial strangling

The suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian tax authorities has morphed into one of Ferrexpo’s most acute financial headaches:

By early October, the company said $47 million of VAT refunds had been withheld and estimated that, assuming no refunds for August and September either, the total would reach about $58 million. ^[15]
Management explicitly described the VAT issue as the “most critical” challenge facing the business and cited it as a key reason for operating only a single pellet line and for aggressive cost‑cutting (reduced working hours, procurement cuts, suspended non‑essential capex, and around 20% of staff on furlough or reduced hours). ^[16]

Independent commentary on the August interim results framed the situation starkly: a large net loss, a 95% collapse in EBITDA, and a business essentially in survival mode as VAT suspension and production cuts destroyed margins. ^[17]

Direct war damage and power disruptions

Operational risk is far from theoretical:

In November, Ferrexpo announced that missile strikes on Ukraine’s power infrastructure cut electricity to its Poltava and Yeristovo operations, forcing a temporary suspension of mining and processing at both sites. ^[18]
Intensified Russian strikes on rail networks and energy infrastructure have further complicated logistics and raised costs, according to the 3Q production update. ^[19]
Tragically, Ferrexpo reported that three more employees were killed while serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the quarter, bringing the total to 50. ^[20]

All of that feeds back into the share price: any sign of escalation, infrastructure damage or further power cuts immediately raises questions about how long the company can maintain even its current reduced output.

Legal and nationalisation risk: the Poltava mine threat

On top of war and tax pressure, Ferrexpo is dealing with existential legal risk in Ukraine.

In February 2025, The Times reported that Ukrainian authorities were preparing legal action seeking to seize 49.5% of Poltava Mining, Ferrexpo’s flagship mine and processing complex, as part of efforts to recover assets linked to the company’s founder. The article said this could effectively amount to partial nationalisation of Ferrexpo’s largest asset, and the news sent the shares down by about 30% in a single session to roughly 69p. ^[21]

Ukrainian investigators have alleged illegal mining and environmental damage and filed a civil claim reportedly worth 157 billion UAH (around £3 billion) against Ferrexpo Poltava Mining and its directors. Ferrexpo denies the allegations, calling them baseless, and says it will defend itself vigorously and had not yet received formal court documents at the time of the report. ^[22]

Even if investors believe Ferrexpo will ultimately prevail, the mere possibility of losing part of Poltava — a resource with enough reserves for decades of production — sits as a fat‑tailed risk in any valuation model.

Balance sheet, credit ratings and funding risk

If this were “just” a bad quarter story, the credit profile would look very different. Instead, it looks like a company trying to ride out a hurricane on a relatively sturdy but slowly eroding raft.

Leverage and liquidity

Ferrexpo’s balance sheet is, on paper, surprisingly clean. Interim results for the six months to June 2025 show net cash of around $50 million, with essentially no interest‑bearing debt other than lease liabilities. ^[23]
Independent fundamental analysis highlights a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 0.01, with more cash than debt — giving Ferrexpo a “fortress” balance sheet for now. ^[24]

But that’s where the good news ends.

Credit ratings: firmly in distressed territory

Credit rating agencies now see Ferrexpo as a very high‑risk credit:

Fitch Ratings downgraded Ferrexpo’s long‑term Issuer Default Rating from ‘CCC+’ to ‘CCC‑’ in June 2025 and later reaffirmed that rating with a negative outlook, citing deteriorating operational liquidity and ongoing negative free cash flow. ^[25]
As of 30 June 2025, S&P rated Ferrexpo ‘CCC’ (negative outlook) and Moody’s rated it ‘Caa3’ (negative outlook), according to the company’s interim report. ^[26]

In ratings‑speak, that combination effectively means: default or restructuring is possible if things get worse, and they might.

Ferrexpo fundamentals: from record profits to chronic losses

Before the war, Ferrexpo was a cash‑machine:

In 2021, the company generated around $2.5 billion of revenue and about $871 million of net income, with operating margins above 40% thanks to high iron‑ore prices and strong demand for its premium pellets. ^[27]

Since 2022, that picture has reversed:

Revenue fell to about $1.25 billion in 2022 and then to around $650 million in 2023 — a drop of roughly 74% from the peak. ^[28]
Ferrexpo swung to net losses in 2023 and 2024 (Reuters cited a $50 million loss for 2024), and free cash flow turned negative as operating cash no longer covered capex. ^[29]
Dividend payments have been suspended since mid‑2022, and the company’s own site shows no new distributions since a 6.6¢ per share final dividend for 2021. ^[30]

So the current investment case is not “cheap quality compounder”. It is “quality assets trapped in a high‑risk jurisdiction with structurally impaired profitability until something big changes”.

Analyst ratings and Ferrexpo stock forecasts

Broker views: mostly “hold” and cautious

There is currently only limited broker coverage of FXPO, but what exists is not exactly an enthusiasm festival:

UK broker Peel Hunt reiterated a “Hold” rating on 10 November 2025 with a 53p price target. That target implied only low‑single‑digit upside at the time and now sits below today’s price, even after the sell‑off. ^[31]
MarketBeat’s aggregation of analyst opinions also shows a consensus rating of “Hold” with an average target around 53p. ^[32]

In short: the one mainstream UK broker actively publishing on Ferrexpo is lukewarm, not bullish.

Aggregated 12‑month targets

Various data platforms that scrape and standardize analyst numbers cluster in a similar range:

TradingView’s FXPO forecast page cites an average price target near the mid‑50s pence, with a range from roughly 48p to 65p. ^[33]
ValueInvesting.io shows a 12‑month target around 55p, with a range of about 47–68p and a consensus “Hold” recommendation based on several analysts. (The site labels these as “GBP” but the values clearly correspond to pence.) ^[34]

Given the stock was trading near 78p yesterday and ~67p today, those consensus targets actually imply modest downside or, at best, limited upside from current levels, assuming no big improvement in the operating environment.

Quant and technical models

On the more quantitative side:

StockInvest.us — a technical analysis site — had Ferrexpo flagged as a “Buy or Hold candidate” since 21 November, noting a 61.8% gain over that period, multiple moving‑average buy signals and very high daily volatility. Support levels were seen around 73.6p and 58.4p, with the stock classified outright as “very high risk.” ^[35]

That kind of technical optimism is exactly what gets stress‑tested on days like today.

Independent deep‑dive analysis

One of the more detailed fundamental write‑ups comes from KoalaGains, which updates its Ferrexpo model periodically:

Overall rating: “Negative”, arguing that Ferrexpo’s “high‑quality” iron‑ore assets are effectively paralysed by war risk. ^[36]
Financials:
- Revenues down over 70% from 2021.
- Net losses in recent years and negative free cash flow.
- Very low leverage and net cash are a major cushion but not enough to offset operational stress. ^[37]
Valuation:
- Forward P/E in the low single digits and a price‑to‑book ratio around 0.6, suggesting the stock trades below the value of its tangible asset base.
- The report estimates an “asset‑based” fair value in the 70–85p range but emphasises that this relies heavily on an eventual normalisation in Ukraine and export logistics. ^[38]

The punchline from that analysis: Ferrexpo may look cheap on traditional multiples, but the discount mostly reflects genuine binary risk rather than market negligence.

Growth and earnings forecasts: surprisingly bright… on paper

Some forecasting platforms paint a statistically rosy picture — as long as you remember that all models are fragile in a war:

SimplyWall.st, which builds long‑term DCF‑style models using consensus data, expects Ferrexpo’s revenue to grow around 12% per year and EPS to nearly double annually over the next few years. ^[39]
US‑listed OTC ticker FEEXF (Ferrexpo’s ADR) shows on MLQ and Fintel that one or two analysts expect solid revenue and EPS growth into 2026–2028, though estimates are based on a very small sample. ^[40]

These kinds of forecasts generally assume:

Ferrexpo keeps its mining assets and key licences.
Export routes remain open enough to sell a reasonable volume of pellets and concentrates.
Ukraine’s fiscal and VAT situation doesn’t deteriorate further.

If any of those break, the models become expensive fiction.

KoalaGains explicitly frames its projections in scenario mode rather than a single point estimate — with a base case of depressed, low‑level production for several years, a bull case requiring a durable peace and infrastructure rebuild, and a bear case in which the company effectively ceases to be a viable equity investment. ^[41]

ESG and “responsible business”: a rare bright spot

Strangely, one of Ferrexpo’s more positive headlines this year had nothing to do with profits:

In November 2025, Ferrexpo published its tenth consecutive Responsible Business Report, for the first time aligned with Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) standards. ^[42]
The report highlighted:
- A veteran support programme helping employees returning from the front.
- Funding for 100+ humanitarian projects.
- Women now making up about 32% of the workforce and nearly 23% of management roles in Ukraine.
- A roughly 9% reduction in Scope 1 emissions per unit of production.
- Continued inclusion in FTSE4Good and recognition as a European climate leader by the Financial Times and Statista. ^[43]

ESG plaudits do not by themselves pay VAT bills or rebuild power lines, but they help explain why some long‑only institutions still want to own Ferrexpo if the operational risks can eventually be tamed.

Scenario‑based outlook for FXPO from here

Given the mix of war, legal risk, VAT pressure and a leveraged global iron‑ore cycle, thinking in tidy “price targets” alone is misleading. A more honest way to frame Ferrexpo is in three crude scenarios, synthesising the independent analyses cited above. ^[44]

1. Bull case: peace and infrastructure recovery

A durable ceasefire or peace deal by, say, 2026.
VAT refund regime normalised; back‑logged VAT gradually repaid.
Power grid and rail infrastructure stabilise; Black Sea export routes reopen more fully.
Ferrexpo ramps production towards 10–12 million tonnes again within ~5 years, recapturing lost market share in green steel supply chains.

In this world, current valuations could look extremely cheap in hindsight. Asset‑based fair value estimates around 70–85p would likely be conservative, and upside well beyond that is possible over a multi‑year horizon. ^[45]

2. Base case: grinding war, constrained operations

Ongoing conflict, periodic attacks on power and transport infrastructure.
VAT refunds remain sporadic or suspended; one or two pellet lines run at reduced utilisation.
Production stays in the 4–6 million tonne range; profits, if any, remain thin and lumpy.

Here, Ferrexpo survives thanks to its net cash and relatively low leverage but delivers sub‑par returns and persistent volatility. Consensus price targets in the mid‑50s pence and “Hold” ratings are broadly aligned with this scenario. ^[46]

3. Bear case: legal or military shock

Poltava mine is partially or fully expropriated, or legal claims against Ferrexpo result in crippling damages. ^[47]
A major escalation in attacks destroys key infrastructure or forces sustained shutdowns.
VAT situation worsens; liquidity shrinks; credit ratings deteriorate further.

In that world, the equity could suffer further severe losses or be largely wiped out in a restructuring or nationalisation scenario. This is exactly the tail risk that keeps credit ratings in the CCC/Caa bucket and underpins the stock’s distressed valuation. ^[48]

Key things investors are watching now

For anyone tracking FXPO (whether or not they own it), the main dials to watch after today’s drop are:

Geopolitics – any credible move toward a Ukraine peace framework or, conversely, signs of escalation.
Ukrainian policy – outcomes of VAT refund disputes and the legal processes around Poltava.
Operational updates – whether power supply stabilises, how many pellet lines are running, and quarterly production volumes. ^[49]
Credit and liquidity – changes in Fitch, S&P or Moody’s ratings and any new financing arrangements. ^[50]
Iron‑ore and steel markets – global prices and demand for high‑grade pellets, especially from Europe and China, which feed into Ferrexpo’s potential earnings if it can ship product. ^[51]

Bottom line: Ferrexpo is still a pure geopolitical bet

Ferrexpo today is not your sleepy FTSE income stock. It is a highly volatile, single‑country mining name whose fate is tied directly to:

the trajectory of the war in Ukraine,
the attitude of Ukrainian regulators and courts, and
the resilience of its tax, power and logistics environment.

Today’s 14% slump is mostly the market re‑rating those risks after another sobering geopolitical headline, not a new revelation about Ferrexpo’s ore body or pellet technology.

On traditional metrics the shares may look statistically cheap, and some models do pencil in strong earnings growth and higher fair values. But across the research landscape, the consistent theme is that any investment in FXPO is a high‑risk, binary bet on geopolitics and policy, not just on iron‑ore prices.

References

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