The Indian rupee has finally done what traders have been whispering about for months: it has broken through the psychologically crucial ₹90 per US dollar level.
On Wednesday, 3 December 2025, the USD to INR rate hit an intraday low for the rupee of around ₹90.29 per dollar before easing slightly to close near ₹90.19 in the onshore market. Reuters
That puts the US dollar to Indian rupee pair at a record high, capping an eight‑month slide that has turned the rupee into one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in 2025, despite strong domestic growth and low inflation. Reuters
Below is a detailed, news-style explainer of today’s USD/INR price, the latest forecasts, and what this means for households, businesses, and investors.
USD to INR Today: The Latest Rate on 3 December 2025
Different data providers quote slightly different mid‑market rates depending on timing, but they all tell the same story: the rupee has decisively moved into the 90s.
- In early trade, the rupee weakened to about ₹90.13 per dollar, breaking Tuesday’s previous record near ₹89.95. Hindustan Times
- Over the course of the session, it touched an all‑time low near ₹90.29 before stabilising. Reuters
- By mid‑afternoon India time, the interbank market had the rupee around ₹90.15–₹90.20, while global platforms such as XE and Wise showed mid‑market rates around ₹90.18–₹90.20 per USD. Xe
For context:
- At the start of 2025, USD/INR was closer to the mid‑83s at its strongest point in early May. Pound Sterling Live
- The rupee has now fallen a little over 5% year‑to‑date, its steepest annual slide since 2022 and among the worst in Asia. Reuters
In other words, what was once “unthinkable” — ₹90 for a dollar — is now the new normal in the USD/INR market.
Why Is the Rupee Falling Against the Dollar?
Today’s USD to INR spike is not a one‑day accident. It’s the result of months of pressure from trade, capital flows, and policy shifts. Here are the main drivers.
1. US–India trade tensions and 50% tariffs
The single biggest new shock in 2025 has been punitive US tariffs on Indian exports:
- The United States has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on many Indian goods, leaving India facing some of the highest US tariffs globally. Reuters
- Hopes that these tariffs would be quickly rolled back have repeatedly been dashed as a comprehensive US–India trade deal remains stuck in limbo. Reuters
These tariffs hurt the rupee in two ways:
- They dent exports and corporate earnings, reducing dollar inflows to India.
- They spook foreign investors, who worry about growth and policy uncertainty and thus cut exposure to Indian assets.
Several analysts quoted by Reuters and Indian media describe the tariff dispute as the accelerant that turned a slow rupee grind into a sharp slide. Reuters
2. Huge trade deficit and import demand
At the same time, India’s demand for dollars has surged:
- India’s merchandise trade deficit hit a record in October, in part due to high US tariffs and a jump in gold and crude oil imports. Reuters
- India still imports nearly 90% of its crude oil, plus large amounts of electronics, fertilisers and edible oils — all priced largely in dollars. The Times of India
When imports stay strong but export and investment inflows falter, the country needs more dollars than it earns. That creates a structural gap which pushes USD/INR higher unless it is fully offset by capital inflows or central bank intervention.
3. Foreign investor exodus and weak FDI
Foreign capital has quietly turned from a tailwind into a headwind:
- Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold nearly $16–17 billion of Indian equities so far in 2025. Reuters
- Net FDI has turned negative for at least two months in a row, as private equity and venture capital funds used the booming IPO market to cash out and repatriate capital. Gross FDI inflows around $6.6 billion in September were outweighed by exits. Reuters
Less foreign money flowing into India and more flowing out means fewer dollars are available to meet importers’ needs, so each dollar becomes more expensive in rupee terms.
4. Hedging imbalance: importers panic, exporters hold back
The structure of the FX market has also turned against the rupee:
- Import‑heavy companies are rushing to hedge their dollar exposure, buying dollars forward to protect against further rupee weakness.
- Exporters, facing tariffs and uncertainty, are often delaying the conversion of dollar earnings into rupees, hoping to get more rupees per dollar later. Reuters
This combination creates a heavy one‑sided demand for dollars, which amplifies every break of key levels like ₹88.80, ₹89.50 and now ₹90.
5. RBI’s “soft-touch” intervention strategy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is intervening — but in a very specific way:
- RBI has sold dollars and built up short USD positions in the forwards market, which reached about $63–64 billion in October, to slow the rupee’s fall. Reuters
- Foreign exchange reserves, while still massive (near $690+ billion), have dipped as part of this defence. The Times of India
- Yet, traders say the bank has deliberately scaled back from drawing a firm “line in the sand”, allowing a gradual depreciation instead of aggressively defending specific levels.
According to a Moneycontrol report on Wednesday, traders believe RBI intervened only lightly around ₹90.16–₹90.29 to curb “excessive” volatility, but otherwise let the market discover a new range. Moneycontrol
International institutions echo this view:
- HSBC and J.P. Morgan economists have described a “calibrated” or “gradual” rupee depreciation as both inevitable and, in the current tariff‑heavy environment, even “desirable” as a shock absorber. Reuters
In short, RBI seems to be guiding the rupee lower rather than rigidly guarding a particular level, a stance that the IMF recently recognised by re‑classifying India’s regime as more “crawl‑like” than “stabilised”. The Times of India
How Bad Is It Really? Strong Growth, Soft Inflation, Weak Currency
The most striking part of the USD/INR story in 2025 is the disconnect between solid domestic fundamentals and weak external balances.
- India’s economy grew 8.2% year‑on‑year in the July–September quarter, beating expectations of around 7.3% and marking the fastest growth in six quarters. Reuters
- Inflation has undershot earlier forecasts, and RBI is considering another small rate cut after already easing by 100 basis points in the first half of the year. Reuters
Yet, despite this “goldilocks” mix of high growth and low inflation, the rupee has:
- Lost about 4–5% versus the dollar this year.
- Become Asia’s weakest currency on some measures. The Times of India
A key reason: the external accounts — trade, FDI, portfolio flows — have all moved the wrong way at the same time, forcing the currency to do the heavy lifting.
India’s Chief Economic Adviser has tried to calm markets, saying the rupee’s fall is “not a major worry” and is unlikely to significantly destabilise inflation or exports in the near term, while expressing hope that extra tariffs may eventually be scrapped. Hindustan Times
RBI’s December 5 Meeting: Could Monetary Policy Shift the USD/INR Trend?
The timing of this rupee slide is awkward: RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) starts its meeting today (3 December), with a decision due on 5 December 2025.
- A recent Reuters poll found a majority of economists expect a 25 bps rate cut, taking the repo rate lower after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year. Reuters
- Domestic coverage, including commentary in Indian media, suggests the MPC might prefer to hold rates steady at 5.50% to avoid stoking outflows or sending a dovish signal while the rupee is under pressure. The Economic Times
Moneycontrol reports that some traders interpret RBI’s light-touch FX intervention as a sign that the central bank may deliver a policy “surprise” or stronger currency guidance in the statement, rather than draining reserves aggressively. Moneycontrol
What to watch on December 5:
- Any change to inflation and growth projections that justifies further easing.
- Whether the statement explicitly acknowledges the rupee’s record low and gives a comfort band or level.
- New comments on FX intervention strategy, “external headwinds,” or the trade dispute with the US.
If RBI cuts rates and sounds dovish, it could keep USD/INR elevated or push it higher in the short term. A more hawkish or FX‑focused message could help stabilise the pair below the mid‑90s, especially if global risk sentiment remains calm.
Short-Term USD to INR Forecasts: 2025–2026 Outlook
Earlier consensus vs. today’s reality
As recently as late September and mid‑November, most major forecasts did not foresee USD/INR trading above 90:
- A Reuters poll of 38 FX analysts at the end of September projected the rupee would strengthen to around ₹88 per dollar by end‑December 2025 and hover near ₹87.9–₹88.0 by March 2026. Reuters
- Aggregated forecasts compiled in a November 11 analysis showed median expectations for December 2025 near ₹88.36, with major banks like MUFG and ING clustered around 88–88.8, and some houses like BofA and Westpac seeing levels closer to ₹86–₹88. XS
With USD/INR already at ~₹90.2, the rupee is weaker than most models anticipated, highlighting how much the tariff shock and capital outflows have surprised markets.
Fresh views after the 90-break
New commentary published today and this week paints a more cautious picture:
- ANZ expects the rupee to weaken further to around ₹91.30 per dollar by end‑2026, assuming US tariffs stay in place — and warns that level could come sooner if the trade stalemate drags on. Reuters
- Bank of America is more optimistic long term, forecasting a recovery to about ₹86 per dollar by end‑2026, on the assumption that the global dollar cycle softens and India continues to grow strongly. Reuters
- A November multi‑source forecast summary suggests USD/INR may remain elevated through late 2025, then drift lower through 2026–2027, as bond‑index inclusion, improving external balances, and a softer US dollar support the rupee. Some long‑horizon projections see USD/INR falling toward the low‑80s by 2027 under favourable scenarios. XS
Earlier this week, a separate analytical piece noted that USD/INR had already rallied from around 83.76 at its 2025 low to near 88.9, framing the move as a strong bullish run for the dollar and a sign of how much India’s currency has lagged regional peers. TradingView
Putting the forecasts together
Broadly, you can group current USD to INR forecasts into three scenarios:
- Bearish INR / higher USD/INR (tariffs stay, flows stay weak)
- USD/INR hovers in the high‑80s to low‑90s in 2025–26.
- Risks: move toward or above ₹91–₹92 if there’s no trade deal and capital outflows continue. Reuters
- Base case (slow improvement)
- Some moderation of tariffs or at least greater clarity on trade policy.
- RBI keeps a managed, not rigid, float; strong growth continues.
- USD/INR gradually edges back into the high‑80s over 2026 while staying structurally weaker than pre‑2023 levels. XS
- Bullish INR / lower USD/INR (positive surprises)
However, forecasts are still playing catch‑up with fast‑moving politics and trade policy, so they should be treated as scenarios, not certainties.
What Today’s USD/INR Means for You
1. For households and consumers
A weaker rupee makes almost everything that is imported or dollar‑linked more expensive:
- Fuel: India’s heavy reliance on imported oil means petrol, diesel and LPG will face upward price pressure in rupee terms, even if global crude prices are steady. The Times of India
- Electronics & appliances: Phones, laptops, TVs, and advanced auto components become costlier to import; retailers may pass on part of this via higher prices. The Times of India
- Foreign education & travel: Tuition fees and living expenses abroad, typically denominated in dollars, jump in rupee terms. Some estimates suggest students could be paying ₹5–10 lakh more per year than in 2023 for similar overseas courses. The Times of India
2. For borrowers and corporates
- Companies with unhedged foreign currency debt face higher servicing costs in rupees if the dollar stays strong.
- Import‑dependent sectors (oil marketing, airlines, some manufacturers) see margin pressure unless they can pass on higher costs.
Advisers quoted in Reuters coverage suggest importers should use pullbacks in USD/INR to hedge, while exporters may continue to sell dollars gradually and hedge only a portion of receivables, given the bias toward a weaker rupee. Reuters
3. For exporters and NRIs
There are some winners:
- Exporters receive more rupees per dollar of revenue, partly offsetting tariff headwinds.
- Families receiving remittances from relatives abroad see higher rupee amounts for each dollar sent back. The Times of India
This is one reason why some economists (and possibly RBI itself) see a moderately weaker rupee as helpful in absorbing external shocks — as long as the slide is gradual rather than chaotic. Reuters
Key Levels and Triggers to Watch for USD/INR
Over the coming days and weeks, traders will be watching a few critical factors:
- US–India trade deal headlines
- Any breakthrough on tariffs or a partial trade agreement could quickly knock USD/INR back from the 90s into the high‑80s, at least temporarily. Reuters
- RBI’s December 5 policy decision
- Rate cut + dovish tone → pressure for a weaker rupee.
- On‑hold + stronger language on FX stability → could help cap USD/INR. Reuters
- Foreign portfolio flows
- Sustained FPI selling would keep the rupee vulnerable.
- A return of inflows — especially via bond‑index inclusion or post‑policy optimism — could ease the pressure. Reuters
- Global dollar trends & Fed policy
- Global strategists remain mildly bearish on the US dollar over a 12‑month horizon due to expected Fed cuts, but near‑term moves depend on incoming US data and politics. Reuters
- Oil prices and risk sentiment
- Any renewed spike in crude oil prices or a global risk‑off episode typically hurts high‑beta emerging currencies like the rupee more than the dollar.
Quick FAQs on USD to INR Right Now
Why did USD/INR break 90 today?
Because several negative forces hit at once:
- High US tariffs and a delayed trade deal cut export and investment inflows.
- A record trade deficit and robust import demand boosted dollar buying.
- Foreign investors sold Indian stocks and pulled capital out.
- RBI chose limited, tactical intervention, letting the rupee act as a “shock absorber” rather than defending a hard line. Moneycontrol
Is this a currency crisis?
Not in the classic sense:
- India still has one of the world’s largest FX reserve piles, covering many months of imports. The Times of India
- Growth is strong and inflation is relatively low. Reuters
This is more of a market‑driven and policy‑tolerated depreciation than a run on the currency. But if tariffs remain high and capital outflows continue, pressure on the rupee — and on policymakers — will likely intensify.
Could USD/INR go to 92 or 95?
It’s possible under a prolonged “bad” scenario (no trade deal, persistent outflows, higher oil, weaker global risk appetite). Some banks already flag risks toward the low‑90s if US–India trade frictions are not resolved. Reuters
However, many institutional forecasts still assume that some combination of tariff relief, RBI management, and a weaker global dollar will gradually pull USD/INR back into the high‑80s over the next 12–24 months. XS
If you follow USD to INR closely — whether as a trader, business owner, student or NRI — the next few days will be crucial. RBI’s December 5 decision and any fresh trade headlines from Washington or New Delhi could set the tone for where the pair trades into the new year.
