Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU) enters December 3, 2025 at the centre of investor attention: the stock is trading near its 52‑week high, it just went ex‑dividend on an increased payout, and analysts continue to ratchet price targets higher following a record third quarter. [1]
Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analysis around Suncor Energy stock as of December 3, 2025, designed for readers following the name on Google News and Discover.
Key Takeaways
- Stock price today: Suncor’s NYSE‑listed shares trade around US$44, down roughly 2% intraday, with a 12‑month range of US$30.79–45.60 and a market cap near US$53 billion. [2]
- Ex‑dividend today: The stock goes ex‑dividend on December 3 for a C$0.60 quarterly dividend, payable December 24, 2025, up from C$0.57 previously. [3]
- Dividend yield: At a TSX share price around C$61–62, the new C$2.40 annualized dividend implies a forward yield of just under 4%. [4]
- Q3 2025 beat: Suncor delivered record production of ~870,000 bpd, record refining throughput around 492,000 bpd, and C$3.8 billion in adjusted funds from operations and C$2.3 billion in free funds flow, beating earnings estimates and raising 2025 guidance. [5]
- Guidance upgrade: 2025 corporate guidance now calls for 845,000–855,000 bpd total production, 470,000–475,000 bpd refinery throughput, and 610,000–620,000 bpd refined product sales, with capital expenditures still pegged at C$5.7–5.9 billion. [6]
- Analyst stance: The stock carries a “Moderate Buy” / “Buy”‑leaning consensus, with TSX price targets clustered around C$65–66 and U.S. targets ranging from the high‑$40s to $65, and several recent upward revisions from major banks. [7]
- Valuation: Suncor trades around 13–14x forward earnings and about 5.6x estimated 2025 EBITDA, a discount to many large global integrated oil majors, while generating strong free funds flow and returning substantial cash via dividends and buybacks. [8]
1. Suncor Energy Stock Snapshot on December 3, 2025
As of early trading on December 3, 2025, Suncor’s NYSE shares (ticker: SU) change hands near US$43.9–44.0, down roughly 1.9% on the day. MarketBeat’s latest institutional‑ownership note, published the same day, puts the 12‑month low at US$30.79 and high at US$45.60, with a P/E ratio around 13.5x, a PEG ratio of ~3.5 and a beta of ~0.75. [9]
On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Suncor trades in the low C$60s; MarketBeat’s Canadian forecast page uses a current price of C$61.44 as the basis for its target‑price upside calculation. [10]
The stock has been on a strong run:
- Zacks, writing via Nasdaq on November 25, notes Suncor shares gained about 10.5% over the prior month, outperforming both the oil & gas sub‑industry and the broader energy sector. [11]
- UBS points out the stock has advanced more than 188% over the past five years, underscoring long‑term recovery from the COVID‑era oil price collapse. [12]
This strength is unfolding against a supportive macro backdrop. On December 3, Canadian equity futures edge higher on rising crude prices, with Reuters highlighting the energy sector as a key driver of the TSX’s positive tone. [13]
2. Dividend Hike and Ex‑Dividend Date: What Changed Today
New C$0.60 quarterly dividend
On November 4, 2025, Suncor’s board approved a C$0.60 per‑share quarterly dividend, up from C$0.57 earlier in the year—roughly a 5% increase and consistent with management’s stated goal of 3–5% annual dividend growth. [14]
Suncor’s official dividend schedule shows: [15]
- Declaration date: November 4, 2025
- Ex‑dividend date: December 3, 2025
- Record date: December 3, 2025
- Payment date: December 24, 2025
- Amount: C$0.60 per share
DividendMax and similar services confirm that the next dividend goes ex today for C$0.60 and will be paid in about 3 weeks, with Suncor typically paying four regular dividends per year. [16]
What the ex‑dividend date means for SU shareholders
Because December 3 is the ex‑dividend date, today is the first day the stock trades without the right to receive this upcoming C$0.60 payment. In practice, that often results in:
- A small mechanical drop in the share price around the ex‑dividend date, reflecting the value of the dividend exiting the stock; and
- Higher‑than‑usual trading volume as income investors and arbitrage strategies reposition.
Today’s roughly 2% dip in SU shares is broadly consistent with a typical ex‑dividend adjustment plus normal market volatility. [17]
Implied dividend yield
Using the C$2.40 annualized dividend and a TSX share price near C$61–62, Suncor’s forward dividend yield sits around 3.9%. [18]
U.S.‑focused data providers like MarketBeat show a somewhat higher headline yield of about 5–6% on the NYSE listing, though that figure depends on currency assumptions; in economic terms, the yield Canadian investors see in CAD is the more reliable benchmark. [19]
The dividend is underpinned by strong free funds flow and a relatively conservative payout ratio—MarketBeat places the payout around 55–56% of earnings, leaving room for buybacks and debt reduction. [20]
3. Q3 2025: Record Operations, Big Beat and a Guidance Upgrade
Suncor’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 4, are the main fundamental catalyst behind the recent rally.
Operational records and earnings beat
According to Suncor’s Q3 report and multiple news outlets: [21]
- Upstream production averaged around 870,000 barrels per day, up about 5–8% quarter‑over‑quarter and a record for the company.
- Refining throughput reached roughly 492,000 barrels per day, another record, with refinery utilization exceeding 100% thanks to debottlenecking and high reliability.
- Refined product sales hit a record ~646,800 bpd, up 5–6% year‑on‑year.
- The Refining & Marketing segment delivered C$894 million in adjusted earnings, an ~85% jump versus the prior year, thanks to strong margins and high utilization.
- Adjusted operating earnings came in around C$1.79 billion (C$1.48 per share). That comfortably beat analyst expectations closer to C$1.08 per share.
- Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) totaled roughly C$3.8 billion, while free funds flow (FFF) was about C$2.3 billion in the quarter.
Notably, Suncor achieved these results even though benchmark oil prices were about 14% lower year‑on‑year, hovering near US$69/bbl Brent over the quarter. Strong refining margins, record volumes and tight cost control offset the commodity headwind. [22]
Capital returns: dividends and buybacks
Management continues to lean heavily into shareholder returns:
- Q3 saw more than C$1.4 billion returned to shareholders, split roughly C$700 million in dividends and C$750 million in share repurchases, according to TD Securities’ recap and subsequent analyst notes. [23]
- The Q3 investor presentation highlights that Suncor has shifted to returning “at or near 100%” of excess funds to shareholders, once its net‑debt target of C$8 billion was reached. In 2024, that translated into C$5.7 billion of shareholder returns and an ~8.8% cash yield. [24]
With ~42 million shares repurchased year‑to‑date and net debt trending down to roughly C$8.6 billion, Suncor is gradually increasing its per‑share earnings power while de‑risking the balance sheet. [25]
Upgraded 2025 guidance
On the back of its strong third quarter, Suncor raised its full‑year 2025 outlook: [26]
- Total production increased from 810,000–840,000 bpd to 845,000–855,000 bpd.
- Refinery throughput was revised up from 435,000–450,000 bpd to 470,000–475,000 bpd.
- Refined product sales are now expected in the 610,000–620,000 bpd range.
Capital expenditures remain targeted at C$5.7–5.9 billion, with a sizable portion earmarked as “economic investment” to improve efficiency, flexibility and long‑term resilience in the oil sands and downstream network. [27]
Zacks characterizes the quarter as a “record‑breaking performance”, noting that Suncor sold oil sands barrels at 96% of WTI and captured around 92% of downstream margins, illustrating the power of its integrated model. [28]
4. 2025 Corporate Guidance: Production, Costs and Sensitivities
Suncor’s November 4, 2025 corporate guidance document lays out a detailed roadmap for the coming year. Key points include: [29]
- Total production:
- 845,000–855,000 bpd overall
- ~790,000–795,000 bpd from oil sands (Base Plant, Fort Hills, Syncrude and in‑situ)
- 55,000–60,000 bpd from Exploration & Production (offshore and international assets)
- Refining and marketing:
- 470,000–475,000 bpd refinery throughput
- 101–102% refinery utilization, based on nameplate capacity
- 610,000–620,000 bpd refined product sales
- Capital expenditure (C$ millions):
- Oil Sands: C$3.78–3.85 billion (about 40% “economic investment”)
- E&P: C$725–775 million
- Downstream: C$1.18–1.25 billion
- Corporate: ~C$25 million
- Total: C$5.7–5.9 billion
- Cash operating cost guidance (C$/bbl):
- Oil sands operations: C$26–29/bbl
- Fort Hills: C$33–36/bbl
- Syncrude: C$34–37/bbl
The guidance also gives sensitivity estimates for adjusted funds from operations: a US$1/bbl move in WTI is worth roughly C$170 million to annual AFFO, while a US$1/bbl move in the NY Harbor 2‑1‑1 crack spread adds about C$210 million. Foreign exchange, gas prices and power costs also play significant roles. [30]
Taken together, this framework underscores how volume growth, margin capture and disciplined capex can drive meaningful free‑cash‑flow even in a mid‑$60s oil environment.
5. Management Changes: CFO Transition
On October 14, 2025, Suncor announced that long‑serving Chief Financial Officer Kris Smith will retire on December 31, 2025 after more than 25 years with the company. [31]
According to Newsfile coverage of the announcement: [32]
- Troy Little, currently Senior Vice President of External Affairs, will assume the role of CFO on November 1, 2025, ensuring overlap and continuity.
- Smith previously held senior roles including Executive Vice President, Downstream and Interim CEO, and has been closely involved in Suncor’s recent operational and capital allocation reset.
For investors, the planned, gradual transition suggests no abrupt strategic pivot, but it does introduce the usual governance question of how a new CFO will approach leverage, dividends and buybacks in a cyclical commodity business.
6. What Wall Street and Research Houses Are Saying
Consensus targets and ratings (TSX + NYSE)
Different data sets paint a broadly consistent picture: Suncor is widely viewed as a solid value‑oriented energy name with moderate upside.
On the Toronto listing (TSX: SU):
- MarketBeat compiles 11 analyst 12‑month price targets, with an average of C$65.46, a high of C$78 and a low of C$57. Based on a current price around C$61.44, that implies roughly 6–7% upside at the consensus level. [33]
- A recent Yahoo Finance piece notes that the consensus target has ticked up from C$64.10 to C$65.55, reflecting a modest but positive re‑rating as 2025 results come in. [34]
On the NYSE listing (SU):
- MarketBeat’s December 3rd article cites coverage from 11 U.S.‑tracked analysts, describing a “Moderate Buy” consensus with 2 Strong Buys, 4 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell and an average price target of US$65, implying substantial upside from the mid‑$40s. [35]
- Finviz, which tracks 22 analyst ratings, shows an average target around US$47–48, with a low near US$40.61 and a high around US$55.67, and a recommendation score near 1.96 (roughly “Buy”). [36]
The spread between the mid‑$40s targets and the more aggressive US$65 objective underscores that analyst opinion is bullish but not unanimous—some see Suncor primarily as a high‑yield, moderate‑growth compounder, while others model more substantial upside if oil tightens.
Recent target hikes from major banks
Several banks have raised their Suncor price targets following Q3 2025:
- TD Securities boosted its target to C$71 from C$67 on November 5, maintaining a Buy rating. The update cited Suncor’s C$3.8 billion in AFFO, C$2.3 billion in free funds flow, and raised production and throughput guidance as evidence that the story is tracking ahead of plan. [37]
- UBS raised its Suncor target to C$65 from C$61 on the same date, also with a Buy rating. UBS highlighted record Q3 production, upgrader utilization above 100% and record refining throughput, along with over C$1.4 billion returned to shareholders in the quarter. [38]
- Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has reiterated an “Outperform” rating and a US$65 target, according to multiple MarketBeat summaries. [39]
At the same time, Zacks Investment Research takes a somewhat more cautious stance, assigning Suncor a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in its November 25 article. Zacks sees a balanced risk‑reward setup: record operations and attractive capital returns offset by oil price sensitivity, carbon costs and capital intensity. [40]
Independent research platform Gotrade goes further, rating Suncor a “BUY” and “core long‑term energy holding” in a November 13 deep dive, citing structural oil supply constraints, long‑life reserves and management’s buyback discipline. [41]
7. Valuation and Fundamentals: Is Suncor Still Undervalued?
A key question for investors scanning Google Discover for “Suncor stock” is whether the recent rally has eaten up the value opportunity.
Recent analysis offers several valuation angles:
- Gotrade estimates Suncor trading around 13.5x forward earnings, squarely in line with data from Finviz and Q3 recap notes. [42]
- A Seeking Alpha article published today characterizes Suncor as a “value machine with rising efficiency”, noting an enterprise value of roughly US$62.5 billion and a valuation of about 5.6x estimated 2025 EBITDA—a discount to many global integrated majors that often trade in the 7–8x range. [43]
- Gotrade’s research highlights a 9M 2025 net margin of ~11%, C$39.6 billion of revenue and a reduction in long‑term debt to about C$8.61 billion, with interest expense just ~1.2% of revenue, suggesting a robust balance sheet. [44]
From a cash‑flow perspective:
- Q3 free funds flow of C$2.3 billion implies a double‑digit annualized free‑cash‑flow yield on enterprise value if that level were sustained, even before factoring in potential upside from higher oil prices. [45]
- Suncor’s own Investor Day materials show management targeting higher normalized free funds flow by 2026, supported by reliability gains, cost reductions and incremental debottlenecking rather than high‑risk exploration. [46]
Relative valuation screens (e.g., WallStreetZen) generally find Suncor undervalued on P/E but somewhat richer on price‑to‑book versus the broader integrated‑oil peer group—reflecting high‑quality long‑life reserves but also the capital intensity of oil sands assets. [47]
8. Technical and Sentiment Signals Around SU Stock
Relative strength and base formation
Investor’s Business Daily recently noted that Suncor’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has climbed into the low‑70s, up from the mid‑60s earlier in the year. The stock is described as forming a “flat base” with a buy point around US$43.48, with investors watching for a decisive breakout on above‑average volume. [48]
Earlier IBD coverage in September flagged Suncor as having already cleared a “cup with handle” pattern near US$40, suggesting the current consolidation may be a continuation rather than a fresh base. [49]
Trading‑oriented views
Trading‑focused research from Gotrade, written when the stock was around US$44, characterizes recent price action as a “vertical squeeze from the high‑30s to mid‑40s” that leaves the stock short‑term overbought but structurally bullish. They see support in the low‑$40s and potential upside toward US$50+ in a favorable oil tape. [50]
Options activity has also intensified:
- A MarketBeat article titled “Traders Are Piling Into Suncor Call Options—Should You?” notes a surge in call‑option volume as traders reconsider whether Suncor’s discount is justified or whether a larger bull move is underway. [51]
- More recently, MarketBeat has flagged unusually large put‑option volume as well, with more than 28,000 puts traded in a single session—about 30x typical volume, suggesting some investors are hedging or speculating on volatility around earnings and oil prices. [52]
For long‑term investors, these technical and derivatives‑market signals mainly underscore that Suncor is now firmly on traders’ radar, which can amplify short‑term swings even when fundamentals are stable.
9. Key Risks Investors Should Monitor
Despite the bullish tone from many analysts, several real risks remain front‑and‑centre in the latest research.
1. Commodity price and refining margin risk
- Zacks and others stress that Suncor, even with an integrated model, remains sensitive to sustained oil price weakness, especially if WTI spends extended time below US$60/bbl, which could compress cash flows, limit buybacks and slow dividend growth. [53]
- Suncor’s corporate guidance shows adjusted funds from operations moving hundreds of millions of dollars with relatively small shifts in WTI and crack spreads, highlighting the leverage to both upstream and downstream conditions. [54]
2. Carbon, ESG and regulatory pressure
- Operating primarily in Canada’s oil sands means Suncor faces intense emissions scrutiny and evolving carbon‑tax regimes. Zacks warns that tighter environmental rules or higher carbon prices could meaningfully raise operating costs and reduce returns on future projects. [55]
- Gotrade and other analysts also note the risk that ESG‑driven capital constraints could limit the investor base, though they also argue this may keep industry supply tight and support long‑term prices. [56]
3. Capital intensity and maintenance
- Suncor’s own guidance acknowledges that its operations—especially in the oil sands and refining—are highly capital intensive, with performance vulnerable to unplanned outages, third‑party infrastructure issues and harsh winter conditions. [57]
- Zacks and others caution that even with improved maintenance practices, the company must constantly reinvest to maintain high throughput and reliability, which can constrain flexibility if prices slump. [58]
4. Management transition risk
- The CFO transition from Kris Smith to Troy Little is planned and orderly, but any leadership change introduces uncertainty around capital allocation philosophy, especially in a firm that has significantly increased buybacks and shifted to aggressive shareholder returns. [59]
10. Bottom Line: What December 3, 2025 News Means for Suncor Energy Stock
Putting all the latest news and analysis together, a picture emerges:
- Operationally, Suncor is executing well, with record production, record refining throughput and raised 2025 guidance suggesting strong asset performance and reliability. [60]
- Financially, the company is generating robust free funds flow, reducing debt and returning a large share of cash to investors through a growing dividend and active share repurchases. [61]
- Today’s ex‑dividend date marks the first payout at the higher C$0.60 quarterly rate, locking in a near‑4% yield on the TSX and reinforcing Suncor’s image as a cash‑return story rather than a pure growth play. [62]
- Analyst sentiment is broadly positive—ranging from “Hold” to emphatic “Buy”—with targets clustering in the mid‑C$60s on the TSX and mid‑$40s to $60+ on the NYSE, and multiple recent upgrades from TD, UBS and RBC. [63]
- Valuation remains reasonable: Suncor trades at mid‑teens earnings multiples and roughly 5–6x forward EBITDA, which many commentators see as a discount relative to its integrated model, long‑life reserves and improving operational reliability. [64]
However, prospective and current investors should balance this against commodities‑driven volatility, environmental and regulatory risks, capital intensity and leadership transition, all of which feature prominently in recent third‑party analysis. [65]
Important Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Suncor Energy Inc. shares involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Before making any investment decision, consider your objectives, risk tolerance and financial situation, and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.
References
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