Published: December 3, 2025 – Informational article, not investment advice.
Key takeaways for BNS stock today
Share price: Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) trades around US$70.55 on the NYSE, up roughly 3% on the day.
Fresh record in Toronto: The TSX listing recently hit a record high near C$99.34 after earnings.
Reuters
Q4 2025 beat: Adjusted EPS of C$1.93 topped consensus (~C$1.84) and revenue also came in above expectations.
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Dividend: Scotiabank confirmed a C$1.10 quarterly dividend (Dividend No. 626), payable January 28, 2026, keeping the yield in the mid‑4% range at current prices.
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Street view: Consensus is a “Hold” with an average 12‑month target of about US$86 (≈22% upside) according to MarketBeat, while several Canadian brokers now point to C$97–C$104 targets on the TSX line.
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Big picture: Capital markets and wealth management are humming, but domestic Canadian retail banking and rising loan‑loss provisions remain key risks.
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How Bank of Nova Scotia stock looks right now
On December 3, 2025, Bank of Nova Scotia’s U.S. listing (NYSE: BNS) is trading around US$70.55, up almost 3% on the session.
MarketBeat’s institutional‑flow recap shows:
MarketBeat
1‑year low: ~US$44.09
Recent 1‑year high: around US$71.00
50‑day moving average: ~US$65.77
200‑day moving average: ~US$59.98
Market cap: roughly US$87 billion
Valuation: P/E about 19x, PEG close to 1.1, and beta ~1.1 (a touch more volatile than the broad market).
On the Canadian side, MarketScreener shows TSX:BNS trading near C$98.72, up 2.8% on the day and almost 28% year‑to‑date, underscoring how strongly the name has rerated in 2025.
MarketScreener India
That rerating has been driven by better results, a richer dividend and improving sentiment across Canada’s big‑bank complex.
Q4 2025: Earnings beat powered by capital markets and wealth management
Scotiabank kicked off Canada’s Big Six earnings season with strong fiscal Q4 2025 numbers (quarter ended October 31).
Headline numbers
Across Reuters, Dow Jones/MarketScreener and sector coverage, the key metrics line up as follows:
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Reuters
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Adjusted EPS: about C$1.93
vs analyst expectations around C$1.84–C$1.85
Total revenue: roughly C$9.8 billion, beating FactSet’s ~C$9.45 billion estimate
Net income: around C$2.2 billion, up from roughly C$1.69 billion in the prior‑year quarter
Net interest income: about C$5.59 billion, vs C$4.92 billion a year earlier
In other words: growth, and better than expected.
Segment performance – where the growth came from
Both Reuters and Canadian mortgage‑sector coverage highlight just how much non‑traditional banking is doing the heavy lifting:
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Global Banking & Markets:
Net income up nearly 50% year‑on‑year in Q4, thanks to robust trading, investment banking and corporate lending activity.
Global Wealth Management:
Earnings up about 18%, supported by higher mutual‑fund and investment‑management fees as markets rallied and assets under management rose.
International Banking:
Net income grew a modest ~3%, with Latin America still profitable but facing higher loan‑loss charges.
Canadian Banking:
The weak spot: full‑year adjusted earnings from this segment fell about 9%, pressured by slower loan growth, competitive deposit pricing and rising provisions for credit losses.
Mortgage Professional Australia
So the story of this quarter is clear: markets and fee income are offsetting pressure in traditional retail banking.
Loan‑loss provisions and restructuring costs
Investors are laser‑focused on credit quality, and the Q4 print didn’t entirely calm those nerves:
Provisions for credit losses (PCL): around C$1.11 billion, up from C$1.03 billion a year earlier and slightly above what analysts had pencilled in.
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Scotiabank also booked a C$373 million restructuring charge tied to layoffs in Canada and Asia, part of a broader effort to trim costs and refocus the business.
Reuters
Despite this, the market reaction was firmly positive: the stock jumped about 2.5% in Toronto and touched a record intraday high near C$99.34 after the release.
Reuters
Full‑year 2025 results: solid net interest income, flat bottom line
For the full fiscal year ended October 31, 2025, S&P Capital IQ data via MarketScreener shows:
MarketScreener India
Net interest income:
~C$21.5 billion vs C$19.3 billion in 2024 – strong growth as higher rates and loan volumes kicked in.
Net income:
C$7.79 billion vs C$7.76 billion a year earlier – basically flat overall.
Basic EPS (continuing ops):
About C$5.84, slightly down from C$5.94 in 2024.
In other words, Scotiabank is earning meaningfully more on its core lending book, but higher expenses and provisions mean that extra revenue isn’t fully dropping to the bottom line.
2026 outlook: cautious optimism and a focus on growth projects
Management’s tone for fiscal 2026 is best described as “cautiously optimistic.”
According to Reuters’ recap of the earnings call:
Reuters
The bank expects loan and deposit growth, combined with moderating provisions for credit losses, to support double‑digit profit growth in 2026.
Executives stressed that they still anticipate “elevated global macroeconomic uncertainty”, particularly around trade relations, unemployment and Canada’s sluggish housing market.
They also pointed to Canada’s new federal budget, which leans heavily on infrastructure, pipelines and natural‑resource projects, as a medium‑term positive. With a strong energy and project‑finance franchise, Scotiabank believes it is well‑positioned to advise and finance large capital projects that emerge from this policy push.
Dow Jones coverage echoes this, framing Scotiabank as aiming for stronger earnings growth driven by markets, wealth and targeted lending, while still acknowledging the headwinds facing Canadian consumers and businesses.
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Dividend: 4–5% yield plus growth and buybacks
Income investors continue to have a lot to like here.
Latest dividend declaration
On December 2, 2025, Scotiabank announced:
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Dividend No. 626: C$1.10 per common share,
Payable: January 28, 2026,
Record date: January 6, 2026.
Shareholders can elect to receive the payout in additional common shares via the Dividend and Share Purchase Plan, with shares acquired in the open market rather than newly issued from treasury.
Based on the current TSX price near C$99, that implies a forward dividend yield of roughly 4.5% – competitive even among Canada’s famously high‑yield Big Six banks.
Dividend growth and capital returns
Earlier this year, Scotiabank raised the quarterly dividend by C$0.04 to C$1.10, reinforcing its commitment to dividend growth.
Scotiabank – Press Releases
In May 2025 the bank also announced – and later received approval for – a normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 20 million common shares, adding a buyback lever on top of the dividend.
Scotiabank – Press Releases
For investors, that combination of:
a high current yield,
dividend growth, and
share repurchases
is a classic recipe for total‑return potential, provided earnings keep up.
What analysts are saying about BNS stock
Analyst opinion on Scotiabank is cautiously constructive rather than outright euphoric.
Consensus ratings and targets
On the U.S. line (NYSE: BNS):
MarketBeat reports a consensus “Hold” rating from 6 Wall Street analysts, with 4 holds and 2 buys.
The average 12‑month price target is US$86, implying about 22% upside from the recent US$70.51 close.
MarketBeat
Benzinga’s compiled data shows a consensus price target around US$72.20, with a high target of US$86 (RBC Capital) and a low around US$65 (Barclays).
Benzinga
Some data providers (via Yahoo Finance) still flag BNS as a “Buy” with a target around US$72, reflecting slightly older estimates.
Yahoo Finance
Differences between services mainly reflect currency (CAD vs USD) and timing of the latest updates, but the common thread is:
Upside potential, but not a screaming bargain, and not a consensus strong buy.
Fresh Canadian price‑target moves
On the TSX line, Canadian‑dollar targets have been bumped after this week’s earnings beat:
RBC Capital has raised its target from C$86 to C$97 while maintaining a “Sector Perform” rating.
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TD Securities has lifted its target to around C$104, according to MarketScreener’s news feed.
MarketScreener India
MarketScreener’s own consensus for TSX:BNS shows a mean “Outperform” stance from about 15 analysts, with an average target near C$97.5 – only a little above where the stock is now trading after the post‑earnings rally.
MarketScreener India
In short: analysts broadly see BNS as fairly valued to modestly undervalued after its run, but recent target hikes show improving confidence in the earnings trajectory.
Who’s buying? Institutional investors are heavily involved
If you like to see what “smart money” is doing, recent filings are encouraging.
A MarketBeat breakdown of institutional holdings notes that:
MarketBeat
1832 Asset Management L.P. (a major Canadian fund manager) trimmed its stake by about 4% in Q2, but still owns 17.0 million shares (≈1.37% of the company) worth roughly US$940 million, making BNS its 15th‑largest holding.
Vanguard Group, Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign‑wealth fund), Scotia Capital, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs all hold substantial positions and, in many cases, added shares in the latest reported quarter.
Overall, about 49% of BNS shares are owned by institutional investors.
That level of global institutional participation is typical of a major Canadian bank, but the fact that several of these players have been adding to their stakes supports the thesis that Scotiabank is in favour among big, long‑term investors.
Strengths and risks for BNS going into 2026
Bullish drivers
From recent earnings coverage and MarketBeat’s bull‑case summary, key positives include:
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Earnings beats: BNS has now delivered better‑than‑expected EPS and revenue, showing it can execute even in a choppy macro environment.
Strong profitability metrics: Recent data show net margins around the high‑single digits and return on equity in the low‑double digits, in line with big‑bank peers.
Revenue growth: Year‑over‑year revenue growth north of 10% in recent quarters points to healthy underlying activity.
Diversification: Exposure across Canada, the U.S. and key Latin American markets provides multiple growth levers and reduces reliance on any single economy.
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Capital markets and wealth strength: These higher‑margin businesses are growing faster than traditional lending and helped propel the latest quarter’s beat.
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Shareholder‑friendly capital returns: A high dividend, regular dividend increases and a share‑repurchase program all support per‑share value.
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Key risks to watch
The recent bear‑case commentary and data highlight several important risks:
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Rising provisions for credit losses: PCL is moving higher, not lower, as households and businesses adjust to years of higher rates. If the economy weakens more than expected, loan‑loss charges could eat into earnings.
Domestic banking pressure: Canadian Banking earnings are under pressure from slower loan growth, intense competition for deposits and housing‑market softness.
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Leverage and interest‑rate sensitivity: With a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.66 and a beta above 1, BNS is sensitive to both credit conditions and broader market swings.
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Global uncertainty: Exposure to Latin America brings growth opportunities but also political, regulatory and currency risk.
Valuation after the rally: With the TSX line already close to some updated Canadian price targets, the easy money from the post‑earnings bounce may have been made, leaving more modest upside from here based on current consensus.
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Is Bank of Nova Scotia stock a buy after the Q4 pop?
From an investor’s perspective, the December 2–3 news flow around BNS can be boiled down to:
Fundamentals:
Earnings are growing and beating expectations, powered by fee‑rich businesses.
The full‑year numbers show strong net interest income, but a flat bottom line as provisions and costs bite.
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Shareholder returns:
A near‑record dividend, a solid yield around the mid‑4% range, and an active buyback program all create a compelling income and capital‑return story.
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Market sentiment:
Analysts are warming up – RBC and TD just raised targets – but the dominant rating is still “Hold”, not “Strong Buy.”
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Risk/reward:
Credit risk and Canadian economic softness are not going away quickly, and the stock has already rallied sharply off its lows.
If you are:
An income‑oriented investor looking for reliable dividends, modest growth and a globally diversified bank, BNS remains a credible candidate for consideration in a diversified portfolio.
A more aggressive, total‑return investor, the last few months’ rally and “Hold” consensus suggest that most near‑term good news may be priced in, and future upside could depend on the bank actually delivering the double‑digit profit growth management is targeting for 2026.
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As always, prospective investors should match any BNS decision to their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio mix, and consider speaking to a licensed financial adviser before making trading decisions.
