Toronto – December 3, 2025.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC, TSX: CM; NYSE: CM) heads into its fourth‑quarter 2025 earnings report trading just shy of its 52‑week highs, after a strong year for Canadian bank stocks and a fresh wave of research, trading plans and institutional filings hitting the tape today.
On the Toronto Stock Exchange, CIBC’s shares closed on December 2 at C$119.50, after trading between C$119.67 and C$121.08, keeping them within touching distance of a recent intraday peak around C$122.56. [1] On the NYSE, the U.S.-listed CM shares finished Tuesday at US$86.59, up about 30% over the past 12 months, according to a Benzinga earnings preview. [2]
With CIBC set to report results before the market opens on Thursday, December 4, and the Big Six Canadian banks trading at above-average valuation multiples, investors are watching closely to see whether the bank can justify its recent rally. [3]
CIBC stock today: price, performance and valuation
TSX listing (CM.TO)
A new analysis published this afternoon by Meyka highlights that CIBC’s Toronto shares are trading around C$121.06, up roughly 1.5% on the day and up about 32.8% year‑to‑date, with a six‑month gain of 35.8%. [4] The article notes the stock is “edging closer” to a year high near C$122.56, putting it firmly in breakout territory ahead of earnings. [5]
NYSE listing (CM)
On the U.S. side, price data from StockAnalysis shows CM closing at US$86.59 on December 2, up 1.63% on the day, with recent closes generally clustered in the mid‑80s. [6] Business Insider data pegs CIBC’s 52‑week range between about US$53.65 and US$87.37, putting the current U.S. price very close to the top of its yearly band. [7]
Valuation snapshot
- Recent P/E ratios for CIBC sit in the 11.5x–14.5x range, depending on the methodology and time period. AlphaPilot’s valuation dashboard, based on October 2024 figures, calculates a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 11.5x, up from about 9x a year earlier, with a three‑period average around 9.8x. [8]
- The Meyka note, using Toronto trading data, cites a P/E of 14.64 and earnings per share of C$8.27, implying investors are paying a richer multiple on local earnings. [9]
- Sector‑wide, Reuters reports that Canada’s Big Six banks – including CIBC – are trading around 12.9x forward earnings, roughly 23% above their 10‑year average, after gaining about 32% year‑to‑date, outpacing the broader TSX. [10]
Taken together, CIBC’s valuation is no longer “cheap” on historical metrics, but still sits in line with, or slightly below, the broader Canadian banking pack when measured on forward earnings.
Q4 2025 earnings preview: what to expect on December 4
CIBC will report results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025 on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with financials released around 5:30 a.m. ET and a conference call scheduled for 7:30 a.m. ET, according to the bank’s investor relations calendar. [11]
Consensus expectations
A Benzinga earnings preview published this morning notes that Wall Street is looking for earnings per share (EPS) of approximately US$1.48 for the upcoming quarter. [12] MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page suggests full‑year 2025 EPS expectations around US$5.69, with forecasts generally rising into 2026, where top‑end projections approach US$6.41. [13]
On the Canadian side, Meyka cites expectations of about C$2.08 EPS and C$7.26 billion in revenue for the quarter, reflecting local‑currency estimates for the TSX listing. [14]
Track record: a recent streak of beats
CIBC enters the print with some momentum:
- In Q3 2025, MarketBeat and related filings indicate the bank reported EPS of US$1.57, topping consensus of US$1.43, on revenue of US$5.24 billion versus an expected US$5.12 billion. Net margin came in around 12.9% and return on equity near 14.7%, with revenue up about 3.3% year‑on‑year. [15]
- Benzinga’s historical table underscores that CIBC has beaten or met EPS estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, though the immediate share‑price reaction has been relatively muted in some cases. [16]
Reuters, looking at the sector as a whole, expects strong Q4 earnings across Canadian banks, driven by investment banking and wealth management, against the backdrop of stabilizing credit. However, it also warns that elevated valuations mean any disappointment on earnings – or negative surprises on loan‑loss provisions – could trigger outsized share‑price reactions. [17]
What today’s research is saying about CIBC stock (December 3, 2025)
A cluster of fresh notes and tools dropped on December 3 specifically focused on CIBC:
1. Meyka: AI‑driven forecast with cautious nod to leverage
Meyka’s detailed breakdown of CM.TO emphasises: [18]
- Performance: Price around C$121.06, up roughly 1.5% on the day, with 32.8% YTD and 35.8% six‑month gains.
- Fundamentals: P/E about 14.6, EPS C$8.27, and a dividend yield of 3.21% on the Canadian listing, alongside a relatively high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 5.90 and book value per share of C$67.44.
- Earnings expectations: Local consensus around C$2.08 EPS and C$7.26 billion in revenue for Q4.
- AI price targets: Meyka’s AI model projects the stock could reach roughly C$123.48 within a month and C$164.29 over three years, underlining a constructive long‑term view but flagging leverage and overbought technical indicators as key risks.
In plain terms, that report paints CIBC as a strong performer whose valuation and balance‑sheet leverage now demand more careful monitoring.
2. StockTradersDaily: trading levels and risk zones
Technical traders got a new “How To Trade CM” report overnight from StockTradersDaily, offering specific price levels for the TSX‑listed CM:CA shares. [19]
The plan outlines:
- A potential long entry near C$114.60 with a target around C$122.19, and
- A short setup near C$122.19 aiming back toward C$114.60, with tight stop‑loss levels around each trigger.
The piece describes near‑ and mid‑term ratings as “Neutral”, but labels the long‑term profile as “Strong”, reflecting a view that tactical traders can work the range while long‑horizon investors may be comfortable holding through volatility. [20]
3. Benzinga: earnings preview and 30% 12‑month rally
Benzinga’s one‑minute earnings snapshot this morning reiterates the US$1.48 EPS consensus, reminding readers that CIBC beat estimates by US$0.14 in the previous quarter. It also notes that CM’s U.S. shares are up roughly 30.1% over the past year, a performance broadly in line with Reuters’ estimate of a 32% average gain for the Big Six Canadian banks in 2025. [21]
The article stresses that guidance – not just headline EPS – is likely to drive the stock’s reaction on Thursday, particularly any commentary around credit quality, mortgage renewals and the U.S. business. [22]
4. Structured-note amendment: minor housekeeping, not a thesis changer
Marketscreener today carried a notice from CIBC Capital Markets relating to a “manifest error” amendment affecting the terms and conditions of several structured-note series. The document clarifies that only specific terms are being corrected and that all other elements of the Final Terms remain unchanged. [23]
For ordinary CM shareholders, this looks more like documentation housekeeping than a fundamental shift in the investment case.
5. Dividend-growth commentary: CIBC singled out as a “standout” banker
A separate article on dividend growth and bank resilience, published this morning, highlights CIBC as a standout among Canadian banks for its dividend profile and projected growth as the Bank of Canada eventually moves toward rate cuts. [24] The piece frames dividend growth as a strategic signal of balance‑sheet strength and management confidence—an angle that could matter for income‑oriented investors following CM.
Analyst price targets and ratings: “Hold” in Canada, “Moderate Buy” in the U.S.
Despite the stock’s strong run, the picture from analysts is nuanced rather than euphorically bullish.
TSX (CM.TO): consensus “Hold” with modest implied downside
MarketBeat’s Canadian forecast page, updated with prices as of December 2, shows: [25]
- Average 12‑month target:C$113.00
- Current reference price:C$121.06
- Implied downside: about –6.7%
- Target range:C$96.00 to C$127.00
- Ratings mix:1 Sell, 5 Hold, 4 Buy (10 analysts), producing an overall “Hold” consensus.
In other words, many Canadian bank analysts believe a lot of good news is already in the price, even if they’re not outright bearish.
NYSE (CM): mixed signals, but leaning positive
Several data providers track U.S.-dollar targets for CM:
- TickerNerd aggregates 7 major Wall Street analysts and reports a median price target of US$84.34 (range US$61.30–US$89.73) with CM recently trading at US$86.59—a slight implied downside overall. The site characterises the stock’s rating as “Buy (7.0/10)”, backed by 7 Buy, 7 Hold and 2 Sell ratings when it folds in broader coverage. [26]
- Business Insider lists a median target around US$102, with a high estimate of US$116 and a low near US$77, based on four analysts, and categorises CM as a Buy‑rated stock. [27]
- MarketBeat’s U.S.‑oriented notes in recent institutional holdings stories point to a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target of about US$107.50, supported by four Buy and three Hold ratings. [28]
- Public.com, summarizing two active analyst calls as of December 3, also cites a US$107.50 price target and a straight Buy consensus. [29]
The takeaway: while Canadian brokerage desks are more cautious on the TSX valuation, U.S.-focused aggregators still see modest upside from current levels, particularly on a 12‑month view.
Dividend and capital return: still a core part of the story
For many investors, CIBC is as much a dividend and income play as a pure growth story.
Current yield and growth profile
- StockAnalysis data shows CM paying an annualized dividend of about US$2.76 per share, for a yield near 3.2% at recent U.S. prices, with a payout ratio around 46% and nine consecutive years of dividend growth. [30]
- Business Insider, looking at the Canadian listing, reports a C$3.60 annual dividend and a yield around 4.1%, highlighting the effect of the stronger yield when calculated off the TSX share price in local currency. [31]
- Dividend.com estimates CIBC’s dividend in U.S.-dollar terms at US$2.63 for 2024 and US$2.79 for 2025e, implying a mid‑single‑digit compound annual growth rate over the last decade. [32]
Long history of uninterrupted payouts
CIBC’s own dividend history notes that the bank has not missed a regular common-share dividend since 1868, an unusually long track record even among conservative Canadian lenders. [33]
Recent board actions include:
- A step‑up in the quarterly dividend to C$0.97 per share for the quarter ending January 31, 2025, announced in December 2024. [34]
- Maintenance of that C$0.97 quarterly level through at least the October 2025 payment, with record dates in March, June and September this year. [35]
Layer in an earlier 2025 announcement of a plan to repurchase up to 20 million common shares, and the bank continues to present itself as a steady capital‑return vehicle. [36]
Institutional positioning: big funds reshuffle CIBC exposure
New 13F‑based stories this week highlight active repositioning among major institutional holders:
- OMERS Administration Corp trimmed its position in CIBC by about 31% in Q2, selling nearly 398,000 shares and ending the period with 888,679 shares, or roughly 0.10% of the company, valued around US$63 million. [37]
- In contrast, Prudential Financial Inc. increased its stake by 26.3% to 78,319 shares, for a position of roughly US$5.55 million, while several other asset managers also modestly added to or initiated exposure. [38]
- Fisher Asset Management LLC disclosed a new position of about 1.25 million CM shares, worth approximately US$88.6 million, representing around 0.13% of the bank. [39]
Across these filings, MarketBeat notes that roughly half of CIBC’s shares (around 49.9%) are held by institutional investors and hedge funds, reinforcing its status as a core holding in many global financial portfolios. [40]
Key risks and themes to watch
Even as earnings expectations look solid, several risk factors are front and center in the latest research.
1. Rich sector valuations and the risk of a miss
Reuters warns that Canada’s major banks, including CIBC, now trade at forward multiples well above their decade‑long average. Any slip‑up on Q4 earnings, or a more cautious 2026 outlook, could lead to sharp multiple compression across the group. [41]
2. Regulatory and capital changes
A Yahoo Finance piece this week highlights recent regulatory changes affecting Canadian banks and suggests they could influence CIBC’s valuation and investor perception, encouraging closer scrutiny of capital ratios and risk‑weighted assets. [42]
While the details vary, the theme is clear: as rules evolve, investors will want reassurance that CIBC can maintain both its dividend policy and growth ambitions without stretching its balance sheet.
3. Credit quality, mortgage renewals and U.S. exposure
The same Reuters analysis notes that investors remain focused on: [43]
- Loan‑loss provisions, particularly in consumer and commercial credit,
- The impact of Canadian mortgage renewals at higher interest rates, and
- The performance of Canadian banks’ U.S. operations, where competition and credit cycles can differ from the domestic market.
For CIBC, comments on credit trends in its Canadian personal and business banking franchise, as well as its U.S. commercial and wealth unit, will be dissected line by line on Thursday’s call. [44]
What investors will be watching next
Heading into tomorrow’s report, here are the big questions that the latest news and forecasts suggest are most likely to move CIBC’s stock price:
- Can CIBC extend its earnings beat streak?
With consensus centered around US$1.48 EPS / roughly C$2.08, another beat—especially if driven by revenue rather than just lower provisions—would help justify the stock’s near‑high valuation. [45] - Will management lean into dividend growth or buybacks?
Given a long history of uninterrupted dividends and recent increases, any signal of continued dividend growth or an expanded share‑repurchase program could appeal to income and total‑return investors alike. [46] - How conservative will guidance be for 2026?
With valuations rich across the sector, even “in‑line” earnings could meet a cool reception if management strikes a cautious tone on growth, credit or capital requirements. [47] - Do technical traders respect the current range?
Short‑term traders will be watching the C$114–C$122 zone flagged by StockTradersDaily to see whether earnings push CM:CA through resistance, or send it back toward the bottom of its recent channel. [48]
For now, CIBC sits in a familiar but delicate position for a mature blue‑chip bank: strong price momentum, solid fundamentals, a dependable dividend – and expectations high enough that Thursday’s numbers will need to be good, not just “okay,” to keep the rally going.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.cibc.com, 4. meyka.com, 5. meyka.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. markets.businessinsider.com, 8. www.alphapilot.tech, 9. meyka.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.cibc.com, 12. www.benzinga.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. meyka.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.benzinga.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. meyka.com, 19. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 20. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.ainvest.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. tickernerd.com, 27. markets.businessinsider.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. public.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. markets.businessinsider.com, 32. www.dividend.com, 33. www.cibc.com, 34. www.cibc.com, 35. www.cibc.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. finance.yahoo.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.morningstar.com, 45. www.benzinga.com, 46. www.cibc.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. news.stocktradersdaily.com
