Alphabet stock is back in the market’s spotlight today as Google’s parent company trades near record highs, riding a powerful wave of AI optimism, fresh Wall Street upgrades and a growing narrative that its in‑house AI chips could challenge Nvidia’s dominance.
As of Wednesday afternoon, December 3, 2025, Alphabet’s Class A and C shares (tickers GOOGL and GOOG) are changing hands around $318, up roughly 0.7% on the day and leaving the company valued just under $3 trillion. Over the past year, the stock has surged more than 80%, with a 52‑week range of about $140.53 to $328.83. [1]
Below is a structured look at what’s driving Google stock today, the latest forecasts and what analysts are saying about its AI-driven future.
1. Alphabet (GOOGL) stock today: price, momentum and valuation
- Price: Around $317–318 for GOOGL and GOOG in Wednesday’s session, up a little over $2 from yesterday’s close.
- Intraday range: Roughly $314 to $319 so far today.
- Market cap: About $2.94 trillion, putting Alphabet just behind Apple and Nvidia in the global market‑cap league table.
- 12‑month performance: GOOGL is up roughly two‑thirds to 70% in 2025, depending on the source, one of the strongest runs among the “Magnificent 7” stocks. [2]
Valuation depends on which lens you use:
- A recent AI‑chip–focused analysis on Finviz estimates Alphabet’s trailing P/E around 31x, noting that this actually leaves GOOGL slightly cheaper than the Nasdaq‑100 despite a ~70% gain this year. [3]
- A separate Seeking Alpha breakdown pegs Alphabet at about 25x forward adjusted EPS, arguing that’s attractive versus other mega‑cap tech names given its balance sheet strength and AI leadership. [4]
In other words, Google stock is no longer “cheap”, but many analysts still see the valuation as reasonable for a dominant AI, search and cloud platform.
2. Why Google stock is moving: AI chips, Gemini 3 and the cloud backlog
2.1 Gemini 3 and Google’s TPU chips rattle the AI landscape
Much of today’s commentary revolves around Google’s Gemini 3 model and the custom Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) chips that power it.
A widely shared analysis from Motley Fool via Finviz highlights that Gemini 3 was trained exclusively on Alphabet’s own TPUs, and that benchmark tests show performance beating the latest systems from OpenAI and Anthropic in several categories. [5] The same piece notes:
- Google Cloud’s AI‑heavy revenue hit $15.1 billion in Q3 2025, up 33.5% year‑over‑year,
- And the AI infrastructure backlog surged to about $155 billion, up 82% year‑over‑year, as customers line up for access to Google’s compute capacity. [6]
This is fueling a powerful narrative shift on Wall Street: rather than being purely dependent on Nvidia GPUs, Alphabet is increasingly seen as a chip platform in its own right, with TPUs that could become a profit center and a competitive threat to Nvidia over time.
A widely-circulated article titled “Alphabet Just Delivered Bad News for Nvidia Stock Investors” lays out the risk for Nvidia investors: if developers and hyperscalers demand TPUs instead of GPUs, that reduces Nvidia’s unit demand and opens the door for Alphabet to sell chips directly to large customers like Meta and Anthropic. [7]
2.2 Google Cloud: from laggard to AI growth engine
Google Cloud has moved to the center of the bullish thesis:
- Q3 2025 Cloud revenue came in around $15.1–15.2 billion, up roughly 34–35% year‑over‑year and firmly profitable. [8]
- Management disclosed a cloud backlog of about $155 billion, up 46% sequentially and roughly 80% year‑over‑year, largely driven by demand for AI compute and generative AI services. [9]
- Over 70% of Google Cloud customers now use Alphabet’s AI products, and new Google Cloud Platform customers grew about 34% year‑over‑year. [10]
Analysts at Guggenheim have called this backlog growth “exceptional” and argue consensus estimates may understate the cloud unit’s run‑rate revenue by roughly $40 billion if current trends persist. TS2 Tech+1
2.3 AI at scale: search, Gemini app, YouTube and Waymo
Recent deep‑dive coverage on Alphabet’s AI push paints a picture of staggering scale: [11]
- AI Overviews in Google Search, which layer conversational summaries on top of traditional results, now serve over 1.5 billion monthly active users.
- The standalone Gemini app has more than 650 million monthly active users, with queries tripling from Q2 to Q3 2025.
- Across Google surfaces, Gemini models now process around 7 billion tokens per minute via the API and over 1.3 quadrillion tokens per month overall—more than 20x last year’s volume.
- YouTube’s ad revenue climbed roughly 15% to about $10.3 billion in Q3, with Shorts now generating more revenue per watch hour than traditional in‑stream ads in the U.S., and YouTube subscriptions helping drive a ~21% increase in the broader subscriptions, platforms and devices segment to $12.9 billion. [12]
- Waymo, Alphabet’s self‑driving unit, continues to expand robotaxi operations to more U.S. cities and overseas, even as it remains loss‑making inside the “Other Bets” segment. [13]
This breadth is a key reason Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has built an Alphabet stake worth roughly $2.4 billion, according to 24/7 Wall St., giving the stock a symbolic “Buffett seal of approval.” TS2 Tech+1
2.4 Musk, “Magnificent 7” narratives and sentiment
Sentiment around Google stock is also getting a boost from high‑profile endorsements:
- In a podcast with Indian entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath, Elon Musk specifically named Google and Nvidia as his top AI investment picks, praising Google’s groundwork for “an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint,” even while stressing that he doesn’t actively buy stocks. [14]
- New pieces highlighting “The 3 Best Magnificent 7 Stocks for 2026” include Alphabet alongside Apple and Tesla, arguing that AI, cloud and autonomous driving give GOOGL multiple catalysts going into next year. [15]
This combination—strong fundamentals plus powerful narratives around AI chips, Gemini 3 and endorsements from figures like Musk and Buffett—is a big part of why Alphabet has outperformed many of its mega‑cap peers in late 2025.
3. Latest analyst calls and price targets for GOOGL
3.1 Fresh $375+ price targets
The most eye‑catching news this week is a cluster of new high‑end price targets:
- Guggenheim raised its Alphabet price target to $375 from $330 on December 1, reiterating a “Buy” rating. The firm highlighted three pillars of its bull case:
- “Exceptional” cloud backlog growth driven by enterprise AI demand,
- YouTube’s continued dominance in streaming, and
- Gemini’s emergence as a leading AI platform. [16]
- A TS2.Tech roundup notes that Arete Research lifted its target to $380 and HSBC increased its target to around $370, emphasizing Gemini 3’s performance versus OpenAI and the monetization potential of custom TPUs. TS2 Tech
These bullish notes frame Alphabet as one of the best‑positioned “AI platforms” for 2026, even after the stock’s huge 2025 run.
3.2 Consensus still sees only modest near‑term upside
Despite those aggressive targets, consensus forecasts are more restrained:
- StockAnalysis aggregates 42 analysts with an average 12‑month price target around $299.36, implying mid‑single‑digit downside from today’s levels, with a range of $190 to $375. The consensus rating is a straightforward “Buy.” [17]
- MarketBeat tracks 51 analysts on GOOGL and shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus: 45 Buys, 6 Holds, 0 Sells. The average price target sits around $312.06, about 2% below the current price of roughly $318. [18]
This split—bullish long‑term narrative vs. limited 12‑month upside—is the core of today’s debate around Alphabet stock.
3.3 Revenue and earnings forecasts
Based on aggregated Wall Street estimates summarised in recent research: TS2 Tech
- 2025 revenue is projected around $410 billion, up ~17% from 2024.
- 2026 revenue is expected to reach roughly $462 billion, another ~13% gain.
- 2025 EPS is forecast near $10.68, up roughly 33%, reflecting strong operating leverage.
- 2026 EPS is seen at about $11.27, with growth slowing to around 5–6% after the big 2025 step‑up.
Many analysts see Alphabet as a core long‑term compounder in AI and cloud, but caution that a lot of good news may already be reflected in the current price.
4. Under the hood: Q3 2025 results and capital allocation
Alphabet’s recent rally rests on very strong underlying numbers.
4.1 Record $100B+ quarter
For Q3 2025, Alphabet reported: TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
- Revenue: About $102.3–102.35 billion, up 16% year‑over‑year, the company’s first‑ever quarter above $100B in sales.
- Net income: Roughly $35 billion, up ~33% YoY, even after absorbing a €3.5 billion (~$3.5B) EU fine.
- Diluted EPS: $2.87, well ahead of Wall Street estimates around $2.29. [19]
- Operating income: About $31.2 billion, or ~$34.7B excluding the fine, implying non‑GAAP operating income growth over 20% and margins in the mid‑30s.
By segment: TS2 Tech+1
- Google Services (Search, YouTube, Android, Maps, etc.): Revenue around $87.1 billion, growing in the mid‑teens.
- Google Cloud: Roughly $15.1–15.2 billion in revenue, up 33–35% YoY, with operating income around $3.6 billion and margins in the mid‑20s.
- Other Bets: Still small, with revenue in the hundreds of millions and operating losses around $1.4 billion, reflecting heavy R&D in areas like Waymo. [20]
CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized that Alphabet’s quarterly revenue has roughly doubled in five years, from around $50B to over $100B, and that the company now has multiple “growth engines” beyond search—Cloud, YouTube, subscriptions, hardware and Other Bets. TS2 Tech+1
4.2 Capex, AI infrastructure and free cash flow
The flip side of the AI boom is massive capital spending:
- Alphabet has raised its 2025 capex guidance to roughly $91–93 billion, largely to fund data centers, TPUs and GPUs for AI workloads. [21]
- Industry estimates suggest that Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft together could invest over $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026. [22]
Even with that intensity:
- Alphabet generated about $48.4 billion in operating cash flow in the first nine months of 2025 and substantial free cash flow after capex, according to recent SEC filings. TS2 Tech
- It spent roughly $40.2 billion on share repurchases over that period and about $7.5 billion in dividends, following the introduction of its first regular dividend earlier in the year. TS2 Tech
- The company also declared a $0.21 quarterly dividend (annualized $0.84, ~0.3% yield) payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 8. [23]
All of this gives Alphabet a rare combination: hyper‑scale AI investment and still‑robust shareholder returns.
5. What big money is doing: institutional moves and insider selling
Fresh regulatory filings on December 3 reveal mixed but generally supportive institutional flows: [24]
- ABN AMRO Bank N.V. disclosed a new stake of about 298,351 GOOGL shares, worth roughly $52.9 million, acquired in Q2.
- Entropy Technologies LP boosted its Alphabet stake by 157.8% to 51,243 shares, about $9.03 million, making GOOGL its 20th‑largest holding.
- A separate MarketBeat note shows Legal & General Group Plc trimmed its Alphabet position by 1.9%, selling about 753,567 shares but still holding nearly 38.9 million shares worth around $6.85 billion, its 7th‑largest holding.
- Across these filings, about 40% of Alphabet’s float is owned by institutions and hedge funds, underscoring ongoing large‑scale interest.
Insiders, meanwhile, have been net sellers after the rally:
- Over the last 90 days, insiders sold about 193,628 shares (roughly $50–51 million worth), including CEO Sundar Pichai’s sale of 32,500 shares (~$9.6M). [25]
This pattern—institutional accumulation with opportunistic insider selling—is typical for a mega‑cap that’s had a huge run but still sits at the center of a long‑term growth theme.
6. Legal and regulatory overhang: the main bear case
The bullish AI story doesn’t erase Alphabet’s legal and regulatory risks, which remain a key part of any investment case.
6.1 U.S. antitrust and privacy cases
A new piece on December 3 summarises several recent legal setbacks for Google: [26]
- In April 2025, a U.S. federal court ruled that Google monopolized the open‑web digital advertising market, ordering the company to share certain data with rivals and stop exclusive deals, but stopping short of a breakup of Chrome or Android.
- In September 2025, a California jury ordered Google to pay $425 million for privacy violations, finding that the company collected app‑activity data from mobile users even after they disabled tracking. Google is appealing.
- Google has also faced a €572 million fine in Germany over price‑comparison antitrust issues and a $55 million penalty in Australia related to search pre‑installation deals.
Separately, a long‑running U.S. search antitrust case ended with a “mixed verdict” in September: the judge declined to mandate a breakup but imposed behavioral remedies on search defaults and data sharing—good news for shareholders relative to worst‑case breakup fears, but still a sign of heightened oversight going forward. TS2 Tech
6.2 Europe’s Digital Markets Act and Google News probe
Under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), the European Commission opened a formal probe into Google’s treatment of news publishers in November 2025, examining whether spam policies and ranking changes unfairly demote news sites and hurt their ad revenue. TS2 Tech
The DMA allows fines of up to 10% of global annual turnover for serious violations—a significant threat for a company driving over $400B in yearly revenue. TS2 Tech
Alphabet has also withdrawn a separate EU cloud antitrust complaint against Microsoft as regulators review the broader cloud market, an indication that Google is trying to navigate carefully in an increasingly interventionist regulatory environment. TS2 Tech
The takeaway: regulation is unlikely to derail Alphabet overnight, but it is a persistent, hard‑to‑quantify risk that could affect margins, ad practices and product design over the coming years.
7. Is Google stock still a buy after its 2025 surge?
Different commentators are drawing subtly different conclusions from the same set of facts.
7.1 The bullish view
- A Nasdaq analysis notes that if you had invested $1,000 in Alphabet a decade ago, you’d be sitting on a very large gain today, and argues that the company’s outperformance versus the broader market is backed by real momentum in AI, Cloud and Search, not just hype. [27]
- AInvest and EnergyNewsBeat both characterize Alphabet as a central winner of the AI infrastructure boom, pointing to its $155B backlog, 650M‑plus Gemini users, and raised capex guidance as evidence that it’s playing offense rather than defense in the AI era. [28]
- Seeking Alpha’s recent “Emerging From The AI Pack” piece argues that Alphabet has re‑captured AI leadershipafter trailing OpenAI early in the large‑language‑model race, and that its 25x forward P/E is attractive given its balance sheet, profitability and multi‑engine growth model. [29]
Put simply, bulls see Alphabet as:
A high‑quality compounder with dominant positions in search, video, mobile and now AI infrastructure, plus a rapidly scaling cloud business and a growing dividend/buyback story.
7.2 The cautious view
On the other side, several analyses note that:
- Consensus 12‑month price targets around $300–312 are at or slightly below today’s price, implying limited near‑term upside unless AI monetization beats expectations. [30]
- Technical indicators such as the relative‑strength index (RSI) and distance from key moving averages suggest Alphabet shares are extended and potentially overbought, raising the risk of consolidation or pullbacks. TS2 Tech+1
- Massive AI capex—over $90B in 2025 and likely higher in 2026—will push up depreciation and data‑center costs, pressuring margins even as revenue grows. [31]
- Regulatory and legal outcomes remain wildcards, especially in Europe and in ongoing privacy litigation. [32]
A new Somos Hermanos piece captures this tension well: despite legal challenges and fines in the U.S., Germany and Australia, Alphabet shares have still surged roughly 66% in 2025 as investors focus on Gemini 3, potential AI chip deals with Meta and robust cloud and ad growth. [33]
7.3 How to think about Google stock today
None of this is personal investment advice, but today’s setup for Alphabet looks roughly like this:
- Long‑term story (3–5+ years):
- Strong: leadership in AI models and infrastructure (Gemini, TPUs), huge cloud backlog, durable search and YouTube cash flows, expanding subscriptions, and a new dividend plus aggressive buybacks. [34]
- 12‑month reward‑to‑risk:
- Less obvious: the stock already prices in a lot of AI optimism, analysts’ average price targets cluster around the current level, and techincal indicators hint at overbought territory. [35]
- Key things to watch into 2026:
- How quickly the $155B cloud backlog converts into revenue,
- Whether Meta and other hyperscalers sign large, public TPU deals,
- Evidence that AI Overviews and Gemini 3 grow ad revenue rather than cannibalize it,
- Progress toward Waymo scale and profitability,
- Any escalation or resolution in U.S. and EU regulatory actions. TS2 Tech+2Finviz+2
For investors following Google stock today, December 3, 2025, the message from Wall Street is fairly clear:
Alphabet remains one of the defining AI and cloud stories of this cycle — but after a historic run, the easy money may be behind it, and future gains will depend on how well it converts AI excitement into durable, growing cash flows.
Always consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification before making any investment decisions, and consult a qualified financial adviser if you’re unsure what’s appropriate for your situation.
References
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