Meta Platforms (META) Stock on December 3, 2025: AI Spending Jitters, SAM 3 Breakthrough and New 2025

As of late-morning U.S. trading on December 3, 2025, Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is changing hands around $643 per share, down roughly 0.6% on the day and almost 19% below its 52‑week high of $796.25. The stock’s market capitalization sits near $1.6 trillion, with a trailing P/E ratio around 28–29 and a dividend yield of about 0.3%. ^[1]

Year to date, Meta shares are up about 8%, but they’ve lagged the S&P 500 as investors digest an enormous AI infrastructure build‑out that has reshaped the company’s cash flow profile. ^[2]

Below is a roundup of the most important Meta stock news, forecasts and analyses published on December 3, 2025, plus how they fit into the broader 2025 narrative around Meta’s AI gamble.

Snapshot: META Stock Today

Price: about $643 per share, down ~0.6% intraday. ^[3]
52‑week range:$479.80 – $796.25. ^[4]
Market cap: ≈ $1.6T. ^[5]
Valuation: P/E around 28–29, forward P/E near 22, P/E/G ~1.3. ^[6]
Dividend:$2.10 annualized (about 0.33% yield) after the new payout introduced this year. ^[7]
YTD performance: roughly 8% gain, making Meta one of the weaker “Magnificent Seven” names in 2025 despite robust earnings. ^[8]

1. 24/7 Wall St: “Does Meta Platforms Need Another Year of Efficiency?”

A fresh 24/7 Wall St column published today argues that Meta’s AI‑driven capex is the key reason the stock trades nearly 19% below its peak, even after a recent relief rally. ^[9]

Key points from the article:

Performance vs. market: Meta is up only about 6% year to date versus more than double that for the S&P 500, making it a rare laggard among AI leaders. ^[10]
AI spending fears: The author notes that concerns about an “AI bubble” and Meta’s aggressive AI infrastructure budget have weighed on sentiment, even though earnings themselves have been “pretty decent.” ^[11]
Efficiency 2.0? The piece asks whether CEO Mark Zuckerberg needs another “year of efficiency” like the drastic 2023 cost cuts that sparked Meta’s historic turnaround. The conclusion: major new cuts probably aren’t necessary, but investors want clearer evidence that front‑loaded AI spend will pay off. ^[12]
Stance: The author views the recent sell‑off as buyable, favoring continued AI investment over cutting back, and explicitly suggests trimming Reality Labs before touching AI budgets. ^[13]

Takeaway: Today’s 24/7 Wall St commentary crystallizes the dominant 2025 META debate: Is AI capex a reckless bubble‑era gamble or the right move at the right time? The article leans firmly bullish, but acknowledges that margins and AI monetization will be the key datapoints in upcoming quarters. ^[14]

2. SAM 3 AI Model: Citizens Reiterates $900 Price Target

A widely‑circulated Finviz/InsiderMonkey note this morning highlights Citizens’ reiterated “Market Outperform” rating and $900 price target for META, following the launch of Segment Anything Model 3 (SAM 3) on November 19. ^[15]

According to that report:

What SAM 3 is: A “promptable” computer‑vision system that can detect, segment and track visual concepts in images and video based on text prompts, example images, or both. ^[16]
Why it matters:
- Annotation speeds are now said to be 5× faster than human annotators for negative prompts and 36% faster for positive prompts. ^[17]
- The system underpins a dataset of 4 million unique visual concepts, dramatically scaling Meta’s internal “data engine.” ^[18]
- Citizens believes these improvements will help boost user engagement and ad performance, supporting long‑term revenue growth. ^[19]

Takeaway: SAM 3 is being framed as a flagship example of Meta’s AI R&D converting directly into better ad targeting and content understanding—areas where Meta can monetize AI faster than many enterprise‑focused peers. The reaffirmed $900 target implies roughly 40% upside from today’s levels. ^[20]

3. Seeking Alpha: “Meta: The Next Google (Rating Upgrade)”

A new Seeking Alpha long‑idea piece today literally calls Meta “The Next Google” and upgrades its rating, arguing Meta is the next major AI winner after Alphabet’s own rerating. ^[21]

Highlighted arguments:

AI‑powered ad suite: The author cites Meta’s roughly $60 billion AI‑driven ad platform, claiming it delivers up to 58% lower cost per purchase for advertisers, locking in spend and widening the moat. ^[22]
Data and distribution moat: With billions of users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, Meta enjoys a massive behavioral data advantage that is particularly powerful when paired with its recommendation and targeting models. ^[23]
Llama and open‑source flywheel: The article praises Meta’s open‑source Llama models for creating a high‑margin ecosystem around third‑party developers and startups—similar to Android’s role in Google’s success. ^[24]
Valuation vs. peers: Despite heavy AI investment and regulatory risks, the author says Meta trades at a discount to other big AI platforms and sees “compelling upside” as AI monetization accelerates. ^[25]

Takeaway: This analysis reinforces the view that Meta may be undervalued relative to its AI potential, especially if its ad and LLM ecosystems scale in a Google‑like way.

4. Reality Labs: $4.4B Quarterly Loss, $70B Cumulative — But Smart Glasses Shine

An updated Tech Buzz article—originally from October but revised on December 3—points out that Meta’s Reality Labs division posted a $4.4 billion operating loss in Q3 2025, bringing cumulative losses since late 2020 to more than $70 billion. ^[26]

Key details:

Q3 performance:
- Reality Labs revenue: $470 million. ^[27]
- Operating loss: $4.4 billion, slightly better than Wall Street’s expectation of about $5.1 billion in losses. ^[28]
Ray‑Ban Meta glasses: The article notes that Ray‑Ban Meta smart glasses have become a surprise success, with eyewear partner EssilorLuxottica crediting them for a lift in its own Q3 sales. ^[29]
Strategic pivot: Meta has reportedly moved metaverse chief Vishal Shah over to a new AI products role, signaling a shift from pure VR worlds to AI‑powered wearables and augmented reality. ^[30]

Takeaway: Reality Labs remains a heavy cash burn, but today’s update emphasizes that the metaverse bet is evolving: Meta is leaning into AI‑infused wearables that may have nearer‑term commercial traction.

5. Nebius and Meta: AI Data Center Spend Keeps Snowballing

Reuters reported today that Netherlands‑based Nebius, a data‑center operator, plans to leverage recent multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta to expand its AI infrastructure business. ^[31]

This story follows an earlier November Reuters piece detailing Meta’s intention to invest “at least $600 billion” in U.S. infrastructure and jobs over the next three years, centered on AI data centers and renewable‑powered facilities. ^[32]

Why it matters for the stock:

Confirms that Meta is locking in massive compute contracts and third‑party capacity to power its AI ambitions. ^[33]
Reinforces guidance that capital expenditures in 2025 and beyond will be “notably larger” as Meta races to build AI capacity, prompting ongoing investor concern about free‑cash‑flow pressure. ^[34]

Takeaway: The Nebius deal underscores that Meta’s AI infrastructure wave is still building, not cresting. For bulls, this is necessary pre‑investment; for bears, it’s further evidence of potentially over‑extended capex.

6. Institutional Flows: Big Money Both Buys and Trims META

Several MarketBeat filings published today show active institutional repositioning around Meta: ^[35]

Vestor Capital LLC slashed its META stake by 99.2%, selling 102,761 shares in Q2 and retaining just 838 shares valued around $619,000. ^[36]
Soundwatch Capital LLC initiated a new position, buying 5,300 shares valued at about $3.9 million. ^[37]
Segall Bryant & Hamill LLC boosted its holdings by 349% to nearly 59,600 shares, while Titleist Asset Management and Prudential Financial also increased positions. ^[38]

Across these filings:

Institutional ownership is estimated around 80% of outstanding shares. ^[39]
Corporate insiders (including COO Javier Olivan, CFO Susan Li and others) have sold roughly 40,923 shares worth about $26 million in the last 90 days. ^[40]

Takeaway: The institutional picture is mixed—some funds are aggressively adding META as it trades below its highs, while at least one large manager (Vestor) has taken substantial profits. Insider selling appears heavy but is occurring after a multi‑year rally and may partly reflect routine diversification.

7. 24/7 Wall St: New 2025–2030 Price Targets for Meta

Another new 24/7 Wall St piece today lays out a detailed fundamental forecast for Meta from 2025 to 2030, with a bullish price path. ^[41]

Highlights:

Historical growth: From 2014 to 2024, revenue surged from $12.5B to $164.5B (+~1,196%), while net income grew from $2.9B to $62.4B. ^[42]
Analyst consensus: 24/7 cites a median one‑year target of $838.14, reflecting roughly 30% upside and a “Strong Buy” consensus (35 buys, 6 holds, 1 sell). ^[43]
24/7’s own target:
- 2025 price target:$875.46 (+~35% from today).
- 2030 price target:$1,216.82, about 88% above the current price. ^[44]
Earnings and revenue projections: Revenue is projected to rise from $183.5B in 2025 to $274.9B in 2030, with net income peaking near $97B in 2029 before easing slightly. ^[45]
Drivers: The forecast leans heavily on:
- AI investment as a long‑term growth engine,
- renewable‑energy‑powered data centers to lower operating costs,
- and continued focus on free cash flow, which reached over $52B in 2024. ^[46]

Takeaway: Among today’s articles, this is one of the most explicitly bullish long‑term roadmaps, suggesting investors willing to stomach AI‑capex volatility could see almost a doubling of capital by 2030—assuming revenue and margins track these estimates.

8. Wall Street Price Targets and Ratings as of Today

Fresh data from major aggregators shows high conviction but diminishing euphoria:

MarketBeat:
- Average 12‑month target:$823.93 (≈ 28% upside from ~$643).
- Target range:$605 – $1,117.
- Analyst mix: 4 Strong Buys, 38 Buys, 8 Holds → overall “Moderate Buy.” ^[47]
StockAnalysis:
- 45 analysts assign an average rating of “Strong Buy.”
- Average target:$820.91, implying ~27–28% upside. ^[48]
TipRanks:
- Average target:$838.14 (≈ 31% upside from about $641).
- Coverage: 42 analysts; 35 Buys, 6 Holds, 1 Sell → “Strong Buy.” ^[49]

Takeaway: The sell‑side consensus remains firmly bullish, but today’s price still bakes in concerns about capex and regulatory risk, keeping META from trading anywhere near its most optimistic $1,100+ targets.

9. Quant & Technical Models: Short‑Term Upside, Long‑Term Disagreement

Several algorithmic and technical‑analysis platforms updated their Meta forecasts today, and they do not all agree:

CoinCodex

Near term:
- Forecast for tomorrow: about $647, a modest 0.6% gain from current levels.
- One‑week target: around $672 (+~3.9%). ^[50]
Longer term:
- 1‑year forecast: $392.62 (‑39%).
- 2030 forecast: $776.72 (+~20%).
- Verdict: “Not a good stock to buy” right now based on its algorithm. ^[51]

Intellectia AI

Notes a consolidation trend since early November with price up ~3.4% over that period. ^[52]
Technical signals skew bearish in the mid‑term (2 buy vs 6 sell signals), but moving‑average trends look more bullish overall as of early December. ^[53]
Its pattern‑matching model projects roughly 27–28% upside in the next month, rating META a “Strong Buy candidate” for traders despite the short‑term “strong sell” technical label. ^[54]

StockInvest.us

Predicted a “fair” opening price for December 3 of $644.38, very close to actual trading levels, and emphasizes ongoing volatility but constructive signals if key resistance levels are broken. ^[55]

Takeaway:
Quant models are split:

Some see near‑term upside as the post‑earnings sell‑off stabilizes.
Others warn of long‑term mean‑reversion risk after Meta’s huge multi‑year run.

For investors, that means relying on fundamentals and time horizon rather than any single black‑box forecast.

10. Fundamentals Check: Q3 2025 Still Look Strong

Behind the AI capex noise, Meta’s core business continues to throw off cash:

Q3 2025 results:
- Revenue: $51.24B, up 26% YoY, beating consensus by nearly $2B. ^[56]
- Operating income: $20.54B, up 18% YoY, with a 40% operating margin. ^[57]
- Advertising revenue remains ~99% of total, led by the Family of Apps segment. ^[58]
Free cash flow:
- FCF reached roughly $10.6B in Q3 and over $52B in 2024, even after stepped‑up capex. ^[59]
Balance sheet:
- Meta has shifted from a large net cash position to modest net debt as it fronts AI and data‑center spending, a transition noted by several commentators as a key risk to watch. ^[60]

Takeaway: The numbers still look like those of a high‑margin, high‑growth franchise; the tug‑of‑war in the stock is less about demand and more about the price of AI ambition.

11. Bull vs. Bear Case After Today’s Headlines

Putting today’s news and forecasts together:

Bullish Arguments

AI monetization is already visible: Meta’s AI ad tools are cutting advertiser costs and lifting conversion, providing a clearer revenue path than more experimental AI plays. ^[61]
SAM 3 and Llama show real progress: Cutting annotation time and growing datasets by millions of concepts give Meta a sustainable edge in computer vision and content understanding. ^[62]
Valuation discount vs. growth: A ~28x trailing P/E for a company growing revenue at mid‑20s percentages, with 30%+ net margins, looks attractive versus many AI peers. ^[63]
Long‑term forecasts are robust: Street targets and 24/7 Wall St’s decade outlook both see 30–80%+ upside by 2030 if AI and ad engines keep compounding. ^[64]

Bearish Arguments

Capex shock: A planned $600B+ U.S. spend over three years, along with huge AI data‑center investments globally, risks crimping free cash flow and forcing more debt. ^[65]
Reality Labs drag: With more than $70B in cumulative losses and no clear path to profitability, Reality Labs remains a substantial question mark. ^[66]
Regulatory and legal overhangs: Recent GDPR and competition rulings in Europe (including a Spanish decision ordering Meta to pay roughly €479M) reinforce that regulatory risk is real and persistent. ^[67]
Technical fatigue: After a multi‑year rally, several quant models and technicians see elevated downside risk or at least an extended consolidation period. ^[68]

12. Is Meta Stock a Buy After Today’s News?

From today’s December 3, 2025 coverage, a few themes stand out:

Wall Street fundamentally still likes META. Consensus ratings remain strongly positive with high‑$800s average targets, and long‑term forecasts point toward substantial upside by 2030. ^[69]
AI spending is the main overhang—but also the main opportunity. Nearly every piece published today, from 24/7 Wall St to Reuters and Seeking Alpha, frames the stock around whether Meta can convert massive capex into high‑margin AI revenue fast enough. ^[70]
The risk‑reward profile is increasingly time‑horizon dependent.
- Long‑term, growth‑oriented investors may see the current 19% pullback from the highs as a chance to buy into a still‑dominant ad and social platform with outsized AI optionality. ^[71]
- Short‑term traders face more ambiguity: technical signals are mixed, insider selling is elevated, and a single guidance tweak on capex or AI margins could move the stock sharply in either direction. ^[72]

As always, whether Meta is a “buy” today depends on risk tolerance, time horizon, and conviction in its AI strategy. The latest December 3 headlines make one thing very clear: Wall Street is watching not just user growth and ad impressions anymore, but how quickly Meta can turn super‑sized AI investments—like SAM 3, Llama, and AI data centers—into tangible, durable earnings power.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

References

Meta Platforms (META) Stock on December 3, 2025: AI Spending Jitters, SAM 3 Breakthrough and New 2025–2030 Price Targets