Walmart Stock Nears $900 Billion Valuation: What December 3, 2025 Means for WMT Investors

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is closing out 2025 not as a sleepy defensive retailer, but as one of the market’s most richly valued, AI‑driven mega‑caps.

On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, Walmart shares traded around $113–114, near fresh record highs and up roughly 25% year to date and more than 140% over the past five years, cementing its status as a long‑term market outperformer. ^[1]

At today’s price, multiple data providers peg Walmart’s market capitalization around the $900 billion mark, with recent estimates running from about $889 billion to just over $910 billion and some reports noting that the stock briefly topped $906 billion this week. ^[2]

That valuation puts Walmart in the same conversation as the world’s largest tech platforms and makes it one of the most valuable companies on the planet, and by far the most valuable traditional retailer.

Below is a breakdown of the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of December 3, 2025, and what they mean if you own — or are considering — Walmart stock.

1. Walmart Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Trading Action

Near record highs

• Recent price: Around $113–114 per share, with an intraday high near $114.16 and heavy trading volume. ^[3]
• 52‑week high: The stock set a new 52‑week high on Tuesday at roughly $111.76, and then pushed even higher in Wednesday’s session. ^[4]
• Volatility & momentum: Simply Wall St notes that Walmart is up 3% over the past week, 10.7% over the past month, 24.9% year to date, 20.2% over one year, 135% over three years and 143.8% over five years, highlighting a remarkably consistent uptrend. ^[5]

Valuation snapshot

Across several data sources, Walmart now trades at “growth stock” valuations rather than classic consumer‑staples multiples:

• Trailing P/E: Around 40x earnings. ^[6]
• Forward P/E: Also hovering near ~37–40x, depending on the source and earnings base used. ^[7]
• Price‑to‑sales (P/S): Roughly 1.2–1.3x. ^[8]
• Dividend yield: About 0.8–0.9%, with a quarterly dividend of around $0.23 per share and an upcoming ex‑dividend date on December 12, 2025. ^[9]

For context, sector peers like Target trade closer to 10–11x earnings, while Costco commands an even richer multiple above 50x, underlining that investors see Walmart as a hybrid of defensive staple and structural growth story. ^[10]

2. New Milestone: Walmart Crosses the $900 Billion Line

The headline development today, December 3, 2025 is Walmart’s historic valuation milestone:

• A MarketMinute piece reports that as of December 3, 2025, Walmart’s market cap has “neared and, by some accounts, surpassed” $900 billion, with readings above $906 billion, representing roughly a 32% year‑over‑year increase and placing Walmart among the top ~15 most valuable companies in the world. ^[11]

That surge reflects several forces:

1. Persistent earnings beats and raised guidance throughout 2025. ^[12]
2. Accelerating e‑commerce and digital advertising, which investors view as higher‑margin growth engines. ^[13]
3. A narrative shift — from seeing Walmart as a slow‑moving brick‑and‑mortar chain to regarding it as a “people‑led, tech‑powered” retail and data platform. ^[14]

In other words, the market is increasingly pricing Walmart like a tech‑infused platform business attached to a giant physical retail network.

3. Fresh Company News on December 3, 2025

Several brand‑new pieces of analysis and reporting dated December 3, 2025 help explain what’s driving WMT today.

3.1 Simply Wall St: Is there still room after a huge run?

A Simply Wall St deep‑dive published December 3 asks whether Walmart’s powerful 2025 rally still leaves room for long‑term growth. ^[15]

Key takeaways:

• Performance: The stock’s multi‑year gains have been exceptionally consistent, turning Walmart into a “sturdy long‑term performer” rather than a purely defensive name.
• Business mix: Investors are increasingly focused on higher‑margin initiatives:
  • Advertising and retail media
  • Marketplace and third‑party seller services
  • Memberships like Walmart+
• Valuation: Their internal scoring sees Walmart as “fully to slightly overvalued” on most standard valuation checks, suggesting that while the business is strong, a lot of good news is already priced in.

For long‑term holders, the article’s message is: great business, premium price.

3.2 Investopedia: “Dark” urban stores for wealthy shoppers

A new Investopedia article today outlines Walmart’s plan to better serve wealthier urban customers with so‑called “dark format” stores — locations not open to walk‑in shoppers but optimized as local e‑commerce fulfillment hubs. ^[16]

• CFO John David Rainey said Walmart is experimenting with these urban dark stores to get closer to high‑income customers who have recently “migrated to Walmart” via delivery and pickup services.
• Early results are described as encouraging, and the company is taking a “measured and responsible” approach to rolling them out.
• The piece notes that one of Walmart’s best‑selling Black Friday items was Apple AirPods, an emblem of its growing appeal to higher‑income shoppers. ^[17]

This shift reinforces a broader theme: Walmart is no longer just a low‑income retailer; it’s increasingly capturing affluent customers trading down from specialty and department stores. ^[18]

3.3 Options market: “Whales” show mixed sentiment

A same‑day options‑flow report from Benzinga tracks 10 unusual options trades in Walmart over the past 30 days, with a mix of bullish and bearish positioning: ^[19]

• About 30% of trades were bullish and 40% bearish, with a concentration of activity in strikes between $95 and $140.
• The report suggests the stock may be technically overbought, citing RSI readings, and notes that Walmart’s next earnings release is roughly two and a half months away.
• Over the past month, five analysts cited in the piece have an average target price of ~$121, with several high‑profile firms (BTIG, Bernstein, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, KeyBanc) reiterating Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings. ^[20]

In short, big‑money traders are active in WMT, with slightly more bearish than bullish options sentiment at the moment — a reminder that after a big run, short‑term pullbacks are always possible.

4. Fundamental Backdrop: Earnings, Holiday Sales and Macro

4.1 Q3 earnings: beats, guidance lift and Nasdaq move

In its most recent quarter (reported November 20, 2025), Walmart: ^[21]

• Beat expectations with:
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.62 vs. $0.60 expected
  • Revenue of $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year over year
• Delivered U.S. comparable sales growth of 4.5%, above the 3.8% consensus.
• Reported e‑commerce growth of 28% in the U.S., marking the seventh consecutive quarter of 20%+ online growth.
• Raised its full‑year net sales growth outlook to 4.8–5.1% and its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.58–$2.63.
• Announced a listing switch from the NYSE to Nasdaq, effective December 9, 2025, underscoring its “tech‑powered” positioning.

Walmart also revealed that:

• More than 40% of new software code is now AI‑generated or AI‑assisted.
• Over 60% of U.S. freight now moves through automated distribution centers, and more than half of online orders are fulfilled in automated facilities. ^[22]

At the same time, the board has named long‑time executive John Furner as the company’s next CEO, succeeding Doug McMillon, with the transition expected next year — another sign of a strategic handoff into an AI‑centric era. ^[23]

4.2 Holiday 2025: record Cyber Week and Walmart’s “best day of the year”

The early holiday read‑through is strong:

• Adobe Analytics and the National Retail Federation report that U.S. shoppers spent $44.2 billion online over the Thanksgiving‑to‑Cyber‑Monday period, up 7.7% from last year, with a record 202.9 million shoppers participating. ^[24]
• A 24/7 Wall St. analysis calls recent action “Walmart’s best day of the year”, tying strong earnings and upbeat Black Friday data to improving consumer sentiment. ^[25]

Walmart’s own holiday update on December 2 highlights: ^[26]

• “Biggest, fastest” Black Friday and Cyber Monday yet, with strong growth in digital sales.
• A 57% increase in store‑fulfilled orders on Black Friday and 44% more orders delivered in under three hours year over year.
• A same‑day delivery network reaching 95% of the U.S. population, with the fastest delivery clocking in at just 10 minutes.
• Heavy demand for electronics (Apple AirPods, Vizio and Hisense TVs), fashion, auto and collectibles — exactly the categories that higher‑income shoppers favor.

At the same time, Walmart executives remain realistic about a bifurcated consumer:

• CFO John David Rainey has described the company as “optimistic” on holiday spending, particularly among middle‑ and upper‑income households, while lower‑income customers are more cautious. ^[27]
• Sector‑wide data show shoppers are more selective and value‑driven, increasingly using buy‑now‑pay‑later to stretch budgets and cutting back on impulse buys at retailers like Walmart and Target. ^[28]

Put together, Walmart appears to be capturing a disproportionate share of resilient spending, even as the overall environment is more fragile than headline Cyber Week numbers suggest.

5. Strategic Drivers: AI, Automation and New Formats

5.1 Deep automation in the supply chain

A Supply Chain Dive analysis based on Q3 results shows just how far Walmart has pushed automation: ^[29]

• Over 60% of U.S. stores now receive part of their freight from automated distribution centers.
• More than half of e‑commerce fulfillment volume runs through automated facilities.
• This has driven double‑digit percentage reductions in shipping costs over multiple quarters and significantly improved per‑unit productivity.

Management estimates that automated fulfillment centers are roughly twice as productive as legacy operations, which is key to supporting fast delivery while preserving margins. ^[30]

5.2 AI for associates and AI‑first shopping

On the AI front, Walmart has unleashed a string of 2025 announcements:

• In June, the company rolled out AI‑powered tools for 1.5 million U.S. associates, including:
  • AI task management that cuts shift‑planning time from about 90 minutes to 30.
  • A 44‑language real‑time translation tool for customers and associates.
  • Upgraded conversational AI that answers millions of associate questions per day. ^[31]
• In October, Walmart announced a partnership with OpenAI:
  • Customers will be able to shop Walmart directly inside ChatGPT with “Instant Checkout.”
  • The company calls this “AI‑first shopping” — moving from reactive search to proactive, predictive “agentic commerce.” ^[32]

These initiatives, combined with the Nasdaq move and Walmart Global Tech’s AI roadmap, are central to the thesis that Walmart is evolving into a data‑heavy tech platform with a giant physical distribution network attached.

6. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: What Wall Street Expects

Across major research aggregators, Walmart is one of the most consistently loved large‑cap stocks on the Street.

Consensus ratings

Different services classify the consensus slightly differently, but the message is similar:

• StockAnalysis: 30 analysts, consensus rating “Strong Buy.” ^[33]
• MarketBeat: 32 analysts, consensus rating “Moderate Buy” (31 Buys, 1 Hold). ^[34]
• Benzinga: 31 analysts, consensus rating Buy with an average rating score around 4.3 out of 5, close to Strong Buy. ^[35]
• TipRanks: 25 Buy ratings, consensus rating “Strong Buy.” ^[36]
• MLQ.ai: Surveys 64 analysts and categorizes the stock as Buy. ^[37]

Price targets

Despite the big rally, analysts still see modest upside from current levels:

• Average 12‑month targets:
  • MarketBeat: $118.55 (about 4% upside from ~$113.80). ^[38]
  • StockAnalysis: $118.10, implying roughly 3–4% upside. ^[39]
  • Benzinga: $117.52 consensus, based on 31 analysts. ^[40]
  • TipRanks: $121.67, about 6–7% implied upside. ^[41]
  • MLQ.ai: $121.75, suggesting mid‑teens upside vs. some lower price references earlier in the year. ^[42]
• Range of targets:
  • High:$130, a level cited by firms such as DA Davidson and others after raising their targets on November 21. ^[43]
  • Low:$91, typically representing more conservative or valuation‑sensitive views. ^[44]

Taken together, Wall Street is signaling:

“We still like the business and expect it to outperform, but a lot of the upside is already in the price unless earnings surprise to the upside again.”

7. Is Walmart Stock Overvalued After Its 2025 Rally?

Whether Walmart is “expensive” or “fairly priced” depends on how you frame the story.

The bull case

1. Durable growth with defensive characteristics
   • Mid‑single‑digit revenue growth layered over a massive base of $680+ billion in annual sales. ^[45]
   • E‑commerce and delivery still compounding at 20–30% rates. ^[46]
   • Growing exposure to higher‑margin categories like advertising, marketplace services and memberships. ^[47]
2. Margin expansion from automation and AI
   • Automation is cutting shipping and handling costs by double‑digit percentages and doubling the productivity of newer fulfillment centers. ^[48]
   • AI tools promise lower SG&A per dollar of sales and better inventory/price optimization.
3. Customer mix upgrade
   • Walmart has been gaining share among middle‑ and upper‑income consumers, particularly in urban and suburban areas, aided by delivery, pickup and premium product assortments. ^[49]
4. Global and format diversification
   • International operations (Flipkart in India, Walmex in Mexico, Sam’s Club in China) are growing faster than the U.S. core. ^[50]
   • New formats such as urban dark stores expand Walmart’s addressable market without the cost and frictions of full‑service supercenters. ^[51]

From this lens, a ~40x earnings multiple looks like the market paying up for a company that increasingly behaves like a logistics, data and AI platform with a grocery engine, not just a supermarket.

The bear/valuation‑cautious case

On the other hand:

• A trailing P/E near 40x and PEG near 5 are historically elevated for a mature retailer and imply high expectations for continued growth and margin expansion. ^[52]
• Simply Wall St’s valuation checks flag Walmart as fully valued to slightly overvalued on most conventional metrics, even after incorporating growth forecasts. ^[53]
• Recent options data show heightened hedging and some bearish positioning, a sign that sophisticated traders worry about near‑term downside after such a strong run. ^[54]

In short, Walmart is priced for excellence. That doesn’t mean the stock can’t go higher, but it does mean earnings and cash flows will have to keep surprising to the upside to justify further multiple expansion.

8. Key Risks Investors Should Watch

Even with all the positive news, investors in Walmart stock should keep an eye on several risks:

1. Consumer strain and macro uncertainty
   • Inflation, tariffs and a softer labor market are pressuring lower‑income shoppers, even as affluent households keep spending. ^[55]
   • If holiday spending fades fast after promotions end, Walmart’s 2026 comps could decelerate.
2. Tariffs and price‑investment strategy
   • CFO John Rainey has emphasized “playing offense” on tariffs by being more aggressive on pricing, which helps customers but can pressure margins if inflation doesn’t ease as expected. ^[56]
3. Execution risk in AI and automation
   • Heavy automation and AI deployment bring integration, cybersecurity and workforce‑relations risks. Newsweek has already highlighted broader concerns about job cuts tied to tech and AI, even as Walmart celebrates efficiency gains. ^[57]
4. Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny
   • As Walmart’s market power grows — both online and offline — it could attract greater scrutiny on pricing, labor practices and data use.
5. Valuation compression
   • If growth slows or macro conditions worsen, a stock trading near 40x earnings could be vulnerable to a re‑rating toward sector averages, even if the underlying business remains healthy. ^[58]

9. Bottom Line: What December 3, 2025 Means for WMT

As of December 3, 2025, Walmart stock sits at an inflection point:

• It has crossed the $900 billion valuation threshold, joining the ranks of the world’s corporate giants. ^[59]
• The company is delivering solid earnings beats, raised guidance, robust online growth and strong early‑holiday momentum, even in a cautious consumer environment. ^[60]
• Strategically, Walmart is executing on a tech‑heavy playbook — automation, AI for associates, AI‑first shopping via its OpenAI partnership, new urban formats — that could sustain growth beyond traditional retail. ^[61]
• Wall Street largely agrees, with overwhelming Buy/Strong Buy ratings and average price targets modestly above today’s price, though not projecting explosive near‑term upside. ^[62]

For long‑term investors, Walmart increasingly looks like a core compounder — but one that now demands a premium valuation and carries the usual risks of high expectations.

Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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