Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock: 2025 AI Moonshot, Microsoft and Meta Mega-Deals, and 2026 Forecast as of December 3, 2025

Updated: December 3, 2025 – Information only, not financial advice.

Nebius at a Glance: From Yandex Spin-Off to AI “Neocloud” Powerhouse

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is a Dutch technology company headquartered in Amsterdam that provides AI-focused cloud infrastructure — high-performance GPUs, storage, and software tools for training and deploying AI models. It also owns autonomous driving venture Avride and edtech platform TripleTen, plus equity stakes in Toloka and ClickHouse. ^[1]

Nebius emerged from the restructuring of Russian tech giant Yandex N.V. After selling its Russian assets in 2024, the remaining international businesses were rebranded as Nebius Group, which resumed trading on Nasdaq in October 2024 and refocused on AI infrastructure. ^[2]

The company positions itself as Europe’s largest “neocloud” — a new breed of cloud provider that rents AI chips and compute capacity to enterprises and AI-native startups, competing with hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud but with a tighter focus on AI workloads. ^[3]

Key points about the business today:

Core product: Nebius AI Cloud – full-stack AI infrastructure (GPUs + software + cloud tools) for developers and enterprises. ^[4]
Geography: Data centers and clusters across the U.S. and Europe (including the U.K., Iceland, Finland, France and New Jersey), with R&D hubs in Europe, North America and Israel. ^[5]
Strategic partners: Deep partnership with Nvidia, which previously invested in Nebius and supplies its high-end GPUs. ^[6]

Nebius Stock Price Today: A Hyper-Volatile Winner in 2025

As of mid-session on December 3, 2025, Nebius stock trades around $97.38 per share on Nasdaq. Yesterday’s close was $96.45, with today’s intraday range spanning roughly $91–$103. ^[7]

Over the past 52 weeks, NBIS has traded between $18.31 and $141.10, underscoring extreme volatility. ^[8]

By early December, Nebius shares are:

Up roughly 240–260% year-to-date in 2025, depending on the source, driven by huge Microsoft and Meta contracts and AI data-center hype. ^[9]
Up about 248% specifically cited by Reuters as of December 3, with market cap crossing $25 billion. ^[10]
Down about 30% from their October highs, according to several analysts, as part of a broader “neocloud” pullback. ^[11]

Key valuation and balance sheet metrics from Google Finance’s latest data (Q3 2025, reported November 11): ^[12]

Market cap: ~$24.5 billion
Trailing 12‑month P/E: ~78× (distorted by legacy Yandex-era results; most fundamental analysts focus on revenue/ARR instead)
Shares outstanding: ~252 million
Price-to-book: ~5.0×
Net income (Q3 2025): –$119.6 million
Cash & short-term investments: ~$4.8 billion
Total assets: ~$10.1 billion; total liabilities: ~$5.3 billion

MarketBeat’s snapshot from December 2 paints a similar picture but highlights how early-stage Nebius still is as a business: the site pegs the P/E at –125.26, reflecting current GAAP losses, plus a beta of 3.29, underlining high volatility. ^[13]

Q3 2025 Earnings: 355% Revenue Growth, But Losses and Capex Surge

Nebius reported third-quarter 2025 results on November 11. The headline numbers: ^[14]

Revenue: $146.1 million (up 355% year-over-year from $32.1 million).
Annualized revenue run rate (ARR): ~$551 million exiting Q3.
GAAP net loss from continuing operations: about $119.6 million (versus a $43.6 million loss a year ago).
Adjusted net loss:$100.4 million, more than doubling from $39.7 million a year earlier. ^[15]
Adjusted EBITDA loss:$5.2 million, a dramatic improvement from a $45.9 million adjusted EBITDA loss a year ago. ^[16]

Operating expenses ballooned as Nebius ramped capacity:

Total operating costs and expenses rose to $276.3 million, up 145% year-over-year. ^[17]
Depreciation and amortization more than quadrupled to $99 million in the quarter. ^[18]

Most striking was the capital expenditure line. To support its AI data-center buildout, Nebius boosted capex to about $955.5 million, up from $172.1 million in the year-ago period — more than a fivefold jump. ^[19]

Because of that spending, the company’s free cash flow was deeply negative (about –$375 million in Q3), even as cash on the balance sheet surged thanks to equity and debt issuance tied to the Microsoft deal. ^[20]

Nebius also narrowed its full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to $500–$550 million (from a wide prior range of $450–$630 million), signalling confidence in strong growth but acknowledging the timing of when new capacity comes online. ^[21]

Market reaction to Q3 was mixed:

A Barron’s piece noted that the 355% revenue jump still missed analyst expectations of about $155 million, and highlighted ongoing losses and a new at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program of up to 25 million shares that could add dilution. ^[22]
Zacks (via Nasdaq) emphasized the improved adjusted EBITDA trend but pointed to widening adjusted net losses and a tightened outlook as reasons the stock fell about 7% immediately after the report. ^[23]

In short: Q3 showed explosive growth but no profits yet, and the market is wrestling with how to price that trade‑off.

Mega Contracts with Microsoft and Meta: The Heart of the Nebius Story

Nebius’ investment case is dominated by two huge hyperscaler contracts:

Microsoft deal – $17.4 billion (up to $19.4B)
- In September 2025, Nebius announced a five‑year deal to supply AI infrastructure to Microsoft worth $17.4 billion, with an option that could lift the value to $19.4 billion depending on usage. ^[24]
- The announcement sent Nebius stock up almost 50% in a single session and pushed it to record highs, while boosting its market cap by roughly $7.7 billion in one day. ^[25]
Meta deal – $3 billion
- On November 11, Nebius revealed a new five‑year agreement with Meta Platforms to supply AI infrastructure worth $3 billion, calling it a second major hyperscaler win after Microsoft. ^[26]
- The company expects to deploy capacity for Meta within about three months, constrained mainly by its current buildout pace. ^[27]

Between these two contracts, Nebius management now targets an annualized revenue run‑rate of $7–9 billion by the end of 2026, up from about $551 million at the end of Q3 2025. ^[28]

To fund this expansion, Nebius has taken several steps:

Raised $4.2 billion through a public share offering and convertible notes following the Microsoft announcement. ^[29]
Put in place an ATM program for up to 25 million Class A shares, giving flexibility to raise additional equity over time. ^[30]

These deals have effectively sold out Nebius’s capacity for the next few years, but they also lock the company into aggressive capex and complex long‑term planning around power, real estate and GPU supply. ^[31]

Fresh Coverage on December 3, 2025: What the Street Is Saying Today

On December 3, 2025, Nebius is once again front‑page news across financial media. The newest pieces cluster around two big themes: AI demand is huge, and the “neocloud” trade has become very volatile.

1. Reuters: Leveraging Microsoft and Meta to Expand Beyond AI Startups

A new Reuters feature today quotes Nebius co‑founder Roman Chernin, who says the company is “very bullish” on long‑term AI demand, even as sector valuations wobble. The article notes: ^[32]

Nebius stock is up 248% in 2025, lifting its market cap above $25 billion.
The company wants to move beyond AI-native startups and win “legacy” enterprises in manufacturing, banking, retail, pharma and hedge funds.
Nebius aims to secure 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power across the U.S. and Europe by the end of 2026.
Management says it prioritizes margins over sheer revenue volume in hyperscaler deals, expecting large contracts to help finance broader capacity expansion.

Chernin also frames Nebius as a long‑term consolidator in any future downturn, saying the company is preparing for an eventual “winter” in AI by focusing on high‑margin, long‑term services rather than chasing every short‑term opportunity. ^[33]

2. Barron’s: “Neocloud” Crash Could Be a Buying Opportunity

A Barron’s column published today describes recent declines in “neocloud” stocks — CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN — as a possible buying opportunity for investors who believe AI demand will continue to outstrip capacity through the decade. ^[34]

Key takeaways from that piece:

Demand for AI compute capacity remains “overwhelming” with many providers essentially sold out.
Research firm Synergy Research estimates aggregate neocloud revenue could grow around 69% annually through 2030.
Nebius is portrayed as more conservatively financed than CoreWeave, with less net debt and a diversified customer base beyond just hyperscalers.
However, the column warns that all neoclouds face risks: high capital intensity, potential overbuilding, and dependence on the longevity of today’s AI boom.

3. TipRanks: “We’re Very Bullish” – Stock Down Despite Optimism

TipRanks’ news desk picked up Reuters’ “very bullish” quote from Chernin and noted that Nebius shares still fell more than 3% earlier this week, emphasizing how jittery traders have become around AI infrastructure names. ^[35]

The same piece reiterates:

Q3 revenue growth of 355% to $146.1 million.
A quarterly net loss of $100.4 million.
Strong Wall Street sentiment: five Buy ratings and one Hold over the past three months, with an average price target around $164 per share — implying roughly 70% upside from recent levels. ^[36]

Another recent TipRanks article compares CoreWeave and Nebius, noting that NBIS has surged more than 260% in 2025 and is increasingly seen as a full‑stack AI infrastructure platform, not just a GPU lessor. ^[37]

4. Seeking Alpha and Others: Is the Pullback a Gift?

Recent Seeking Alpha analyses lean bullish but stress that Nebius is high‑risk:

“Nebius: This Decline Might Be A Lifetime Opportunity” argues that the stock’s ~30% correction from its October peak ignores a massive backlog anchored by the Microsoft and Meta contracts, and maintains a Buy rating. ^[38]
“Nebius Stock: The Market Is Missing A Huge 2026 ARR Growth Surge” highlights management’s targets of $900M–$1.1B ARR for 2025 and $7–$9 billion ARR by end‑2026, concluding that valuation models suggest 60–150% upside if Nebius executes, but warning about dilution and leverage. ^[39]
Other pieces model scenarios where gross profit could “50x” over several years if AI infrastructure demand continues unabated and Nebius maintains high margins. ^[40]

Beyond these, 24/7 Wall St recently included Nebius in “3 Stocks Up 170% That Still Have More Explosive Growth Ahead”, citing its 242% year‑to‑date run, $20+ billion backlog and an average analyst target near $159. ^[41]

Nebius Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they all agree on one thing: Wall Street is broadly bullish on Nebius.

MarketBeat currently reports 2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy and 2 Hold ratings, for an overall “Buy” consensus, with an average target price of $144.71. ^[42]
TipRanks cites a Strong Buy consensus based on 5 Buys and 1 Hold, and an average NBIS price target of about $164.20, implying over 70% upside from around $96. ^[43]
A 24/7 Wall St summary notes a roughly $159 average 12‑month target, about 68% above a recent ~$95 share price. ^[44]
Trading platform eToro lists an average target near $157 and a Strong Buy rating based on four recent analyst recommendations. ^[45]

Putting that together, most published targets cluster between roughly $145 and $165 per share, implying ~60–75% upside versus today’s ~$97 price — if Nebius hits its aggressive growth goals.

It’s also worth noting that some outlets flag rising risks: simplywall.st’s tracking, for example, recently highlighted “new major risks” around revenue and earnings quality and pointed to the follow‑on equity offering as a key factor to monitor. ^[46]

Why Bulls Like Nebius (NBIS) Stock

Analysts and bullish investors tend to focus on a few core points:

Massive AI infrastructure demand
- AI workloads continue to explode, and multiple sources suggest supply of high‑end GPU capacity remains constrained. ^[47]
- Neocloud revenue overall could grow around 69% annually through 2030, according to industry estimates cited by Barron’s. ^[48]
Locked‑in multi‑year hyperscaler revenue
- The $17.4B+ Microsoft and $3B Meta deals give Nebius a substantial revenue backlog and strong visibility through 2030 if both contracts perform as expected. ^[49]
Clear growth roadmap to $7–9B ARR
- Management’s target of $7–9 billion ARR by end‑2026, more than 10× the Q3 run‑rate, is aggressive but anchored by signed contracts and in‑progress capacity. ^[50]
High gross margins and improving EBITDA
- Various analyses point to gross margins around 70% and adjusted EBITDA margins improving into the high teens in Q3 2025, even while GAAP net losses widen due to depreciation and capex. ^[51]
Strategic positioning in Europe’s “digital sovereignty” push
- Nebius’s European base, distributed data centers and Nvidia partnership position it as a potential champion for EU companies that want AI capacity without relying solely on U.S. hyperscalers. ^[52]
Diversified exposure beyond AI cloud
- Minority businesses and stakes (TripleTen, Avride, Toloka, ClickHouse) provide optionality in education, autonomy and data tooling, though today they are secondary to AI cloud. ^[53]

Why Bears Worry About Nebius

The bear (or cautious) case focuses on execution, leverage and cycle risk:

Extreme capital intensity and negative free cash flow
- Q3 capex of $955.5 million dwarfed quarterly revenue and contributed to ~–$375 million free cash flow, even with billions raised via equity and notes. ^[54]
- If the company keeps building at this pace, it will likely shift from a net cash to net debt position and may need further equity issuance, diluting shareholders — a point emphasized by several analyses and by the ATM program. ^[55]
Dependence on a handful of very large customers
- Microsoft and Meta represent enormous opportunities but also concentration risk: any renegotiation, delay or technical misstep could hit the stock hard. ^[56]
Fierce competition
- Nebius competes not only with CoreWeave and IREN — its fellow “neocloud” names — but also with hyperscalers and traditional data-center REITs expanding into AI. ^[57]
Valuation still rich vs fundamentals
- Even after the recent pullback, Nebius trades at a very high multiple of its current revenue. Based on a 2025 revenue range of $500–$550 million and a market cap around $24.5 billion, the stock is priced at dozens of times forward sales, leaving little room for disappointment. ^[58]
Execution and build‑out risk
- Ainvest and similar outlets stress the challenge of coordinating GPUs, power, land and cooling at this scale; delays, cost overruns or technology shifts could hit returns on invested capital. ^[59]
Geopolitical and legacy Yandex overhang
- Although Nebius is now a Dutch company focused on non‑Russian operations, some investors remain wary of its Russian origins and governance history. ^[60]

So… Is Nebius Stock (NBIS) a Buy, Sell or Hold Right Now?

As of December 3, 2025, the consensus from major research aggregators and recent commentary is:

Sentiment: Ranges from Buy to Strong Buy. ^[61]
Price targets: Cluster roughly between $145 and $165, implying ~60–75% upside if Nebius hits its 2026 ARR goal. ^[62]
Risk profile: Clearly high‑risk, high‑reward, with massive capex, potential dilution and intense competition offset by huge contracts and an enormous TAM. ^[63]

For investors, the key questions are less about whether AI is important — that case is widely accepted — and more about:

Can Nebius actually build out 2.5 GW of capacity and reach $7–9B ARR by 2026 without crushing its balance sheet? ^[64]
Will AI demand and pricing remain strong enough to justify today’s valuation and future capital needs? ^[65]
How comfortable are you with a highly concentrated customer base and very volatile share price? ^[66]

If you are a long‑term, risk‑tolerant investor who believes AI infrastructure demand will stay undersupplied for years and you are comfortable with dilution and big swings, the current pullback is exactly what many bullish analysts have been waiting for. ^[67]

If you prefer stable cash flows, low leverage and predictable earnings, NBIS looks speculative: the company is spending heavily today in hopes of very large profits later, and there’s no guarantee that the AI build‑out will deliver the expected returns. ^[68]

Either way, Nebius has clearly become one of the defining AI infrastructure stocks of 2025, and December 3 coverage shows that Wall Street, the financial press and retail investors are all watching very closely to see whether this neocloud moonshot can stick the landing.