DALLAS – December 3, 2025 – Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is back in the spotlight as its share price climbs sharply to around $182, extending a powerful late‑November rally and drawing in a wave of institutional money just as Wall Street debates how much upside is left. [1]
By mid‑afternoon on Wednesday, TXN was up roughly 3.8% on the day, trading near $182 after closing at $175.26 on Tuesday, putting the stock more than 13% higher over the past two weeks and in the green for eight of the last ten sessions. [2]
At the same time, fresh regulatory filings show some of the world’s largest investors quietly increasing their stakes, while new fundamental and valuation analyses released on December 3, 2025 try to answer the key question: is TXN a buy, a hold, or an expensive “bond proxy” dressed up as a chip stock? [3]
Key takeaways for TXN stock today
- Price action: TXN trades around $182, up about 3–4% intraday and roughly 8–9% over the last month, though still below its 52‑week high of $221.69. [4]
- Institutional buying: Norges Bank, Invesco and other large funds have disclosed major new or increased positions, giving institutions control of ~85% of the float. [5]
- Earnings picture: Q3 2025 revenue grew 14.2% year on year to $4.74 billion, with EPS of $1.48, but Q4 guidance came in below Street expectations, triggering October’s sell‑off. [6]
- Dividend & capex: TXN has just logged its 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases, now paying $1.42 per quarter ($5.68 annualized), while committing over $60 billion to new U.S. fabs. [7]
- Street view: Depending on whose data you use, analysts see 5–11% 12‑month upside, with ratings split between Buy and Hold and a meaningful minority of Sell calls. [8]
TXN stock price today: momentum into early December
Real‑time data from multiple quote services shows TXN trading around $181–182 on December 3, 2025, up about $6–7 on the day. [9]
Short‑term stats highlight how strong the recent surge has been:
- TXN gained 4.22% on Tuesday, December 2, closing at $175.26. [10]
- The stock has risen in seven consecutive sessions, advancing about 13% over two weeks and posting gains in eight of the last ten trading days. [11]
- A new Simply Wall St analysis published December 3 notes that TXN is up roughly 8.5% over the past month, prompting the question of whether its improving fundamentals justify the move. [12]
Today’s rally also comes against a supportive macro backdrop: a Barchart market update earlier this week flagged Texas Instruments among chip names trading higher as semiconductor stocks rebounded alongside broader indices. [13]
Despite the recent surge, TXN still sits below its 52‑week high of $221.69 and only modestly above its 52‑week low of $139.95, underscoring just how volatile 2025 has been for the analog‑chip giant. [14]
Big money moves: Norges Bank, Invesco and other giants pile into TXN
One of the most notable storylines heading into December is the scale of institutional accumulation in TXN.
- On November 29, a MarketBeat alert revealed that Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s $2‑trillion sovereign wealth fund, bought 13,661,065 shares of Texas Instruments in Q2, a stake worth about $2.84 billion and representing roughly 1.5% ownership. [15]
- The same filing roundup notes that Vanguard, Geode, Charles Schwab Investment Management, Invesco and Price T. Rowe Associates all increased positions, contributing to an institutional ownership level near 85% of shares outstanding. [16]
Fresh December 3 filings add to the picture:
- Invesco Ltd. disclosed that it boosted its TXN stake, now holding over 14 million shares after adding hundreds of thousands of shares in recent quarters. [17]
- Groupe La Francaise more than doubled its holdings (over 100% increase) during Q2, while Westerkirk Capital Inc. reported a new position in the stock, according to MarketBeat’s latest 13F‑based coverage. [18]
Taken together, these moves suggest that “smart money” is buying into weakness: many of these position increases were made during or shortly after TXN’s October sell‑off, when concerns about tariffs, slower industrial demand and heavy capital spending weighed on sentiment. [19]
Q3 2025 earnings recap: solid quarter, soft outlook
Texas Instruments’ Q3 2025 results, reported on October 21, are still the key reference point for any TXN valuation discussion:
- Revenue: $4.74 billion, up 14.2% year on year and ahead of consensus estimates around $4.65 billion. [20]
- EPS: $1.48, essentially in line with the Street’s $1.48–1.49 expectation. [21]
- Margins: Net margin was reported around 29%, with gross margin slipping modestly quarter‑on‑quarter as factory utilization fell and depreciation stepped up. [22]
The problem wasn’t Q3, it was what came next. Management guided:
- Q4 revenue around $4.4 billion at the midpoint, below analyst expectations near $4.5+ billion. [23]
- Q4 EPS of $1.13–$1.39, midpoint $1.26, also under Street estimates. [24]
Reuters and Barron’s both highlighted that this “bleak” or “disappointing” outlook signaled a slower‑than‑hoped recovery in the analog chip market, particularly as industrial customers delayed capital expenditures amid tariff uncertainty and macro caution. [25]
Wall Street’s reaction was swift:
- TXN shares fell 7–8% in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release. [26]
- Multiple brokers, including Mizuho and Bank of America, downgraded the stock or cut price targets, citing margin pressure, limited exposure to AI server spending, and sensitivity to tariffs and China (which accounts for roughly 19% of TI sales). [27]
Even so, consensus estimates compiled by MarketBeat and MarketBeat’s earnings page still anticipate full‑year 2025 EPS around $5.35, rising to $6.44 in 2026, implying earnings growth of about 20% next year as end‑markets gradually recover. [28]
Dividend machine: 22 years of growth and a yield just over 3%
If there is one thing almost all TXN bulls agree on, it’s the dividend story.
- On September 18, 2025, TI announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend from $1.36 to $1.42 per share, or $5.68 annualized, marking the 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases. [29]
- At today’s share price around $182, that equates to a forward yield a little above 3%, making TXN one of the higher‑yielding large semiconductor stocks. [30]
MarketBeat’s dividend data shows a payout ratio just over 100% of current‑year earnings, reflecting the tension between heavy capacity expansion and generous shareholder returns. [31]
Recent dividend‑focused pieces—from Benzinga’s look at tech stocks with 3%+ yields to Motley Fool’s coverage of high‑yield dividend growers—have repeatedly flagged Texas Instruments as a core income holding with a long track record of returning cash to shareholders via both dividends and buybacks. [32]
The $60‑billion question: TI’s giant U.S. fab expansion
Underpinning both the bear case and the long‑term bull case for TXN is its unprecedented U.S. manufacturing build‑out.
In June 2025, Texas Instruments announced plans to invest more than $60 billion to build and expand seven 300mm semiconductor fabs across three U.S. mega‑sites in Sherman and Richardson, Texas, and Lehi, Utah—described by the company and multiple media outlets as the largest foundational‑chip investment in U.S. history. [33]
Key elements include:
- Up to $40 billion for four fabs (SM1–SM4) at the Sherman, Texas mega‑site, with the first fab already beginning production and others in various stages of construction. [34]
- Continued ramp of RFAB2 in Richardson and expansion of Lehi (LFAB) facilities, all focused on analog and embedded processing chips that power everything from autos and industrial equipment to medical devices and consumer electronics. [35]
The upside: TI locks in domestic capacity, cost control and supply security for decades in markets where chips are relatively low cost per unit but mission‑critical in volume. The trade‑off: depreciation and lower initial utilization will weigh on margins and free cash flow for several years, a key reason some analysts view TXN as expensive on near‑term metrics despite its strong franchise. [36]
Headwinds: tariffs, slower analog recovery and limited AI upside
Recent commentary from Reuters, Barron’s and several banks highlights three main risk factors for TXN investors: [37]
- Tariff and regulatory uncertainty
Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and the prospect of triple‑digit tariffs on imported semiconductors have left many industrial customers in “wait and see” mode on new factory and capex projects. Texas Instruments has reduced some tariff exposure by expanding U.S. manufacturing, but Reuters notes that unresolved rules are still dampening demand and extending the down‑cycle in analog chips. [38] - Slower cycle than peers
Analysts at Bank of America, among others, argue that Texas Instruments is recovering more slowly than competitors such as Analog Devices, with weaker leverage to hot areas like AI accelerators. That’s one reason BofA downgraded TXN to Underperform in October, cutting its price target to $190 and citing a rich valuation versus peers and lower expected free‑cash‑flow margins. [39] - Limited AI hype factor
While TXN does benefit from AI‑driven demand in power management, sensors and industrial automation, it does not sell the high‑priced AI GPUs and accelerators that have driven huge gains for NVIDIA and others. Several recent downgrades explicitly mention TXN’s “limited AI server exposure” as a reason its multiple might compress relative to more “AI‑pure‑play” chip names. [40]
What today’s fresh analyses say about TXN valuation
A cluster of new and recent valuation reports, including several that were updated or syndicated this week, illustrate how divided the Street remains.
Consensus analyst targets
- StockAnalysis.com aggregates 25 analysts with an average rating of “Buy” and a 12‑month price target of $201.75, implying about 11% upside from today’s price. [41]
- MarketBeat’s broader sample of 31 analysts produces a more cautious “Hold” consensus and an average target of $191.67, or roughly 5–6% implied upside. [42]
Recent target moves span a wide range:
- Citi has reiterated a Buy rating with targets in the $230–$235 area in late November, viewing TXN as a high‑quality, lower‑volatility way to play long‑term industrial and auto demand. [43]
- UBS and TD Cowen maintain Buy calls with higher targets (up to $245 in earlier summer research), but have trimmed expectations as the analog recovery proves slower than hoped. [44]
- On the cautious side, Mizuho cut its target to $150 with an Underperform rating, while Bank of America also rates TXN Underperform and argues the stock is expensive on 2026 free‑cash‑flow metrics relative to peers. [45]
Simply Wall St fair‑value debate
A fresh Simply Wall St valuation piece—syndicated via Yahoo Finance and mirrored in other outlets—highlights just how sensitive TXN’s fair value is to modeling assumptions: [46]
- A narrative‑based fair value estimate pegs TXN around $189.56 per share, implying roughly 11% upside from a recent close near $168.
- A more conservative DCF model suggests intrinsic value closer to $150.90, which would actually place the stock above fair value at today’s price and imply downside risk.
In plain English: change your growth and margin assumptions slightly, and TXN flips from “modestly undervalued” to “somewhat overvalued.” That ambiguity is one reason the broader consensus has gravitated toward “Hold” despite strong fundamentals and a rich dividend. [47]
Short‑term technical and forecast models
Algorithmic and technical services also updated their near‑term views ahead of today’s session:
- StockInvest.us notes that TXN has now rallied for seven straight days, gaining about 13% over two weeks, and remains in a short‑term rising trend. The service flags elevated volatility but still projects a positive bias in the coming weeks, while warning about the risk of a pullback after such a strong run. [48]
- AInvest and other retail‑focused platforms describe TXN’s current move as part of a broader recovery from October’s earnings‑driven slump, with models emphasizing the combination of cyclical upside and defensive dividend support. [49]
For traders, the key levels frequently discussed in recent technical write‑ups are:
- Support: low $170s to high $150s, roughly aligning with October lows and prior consolidation zones. TechStock²+1
- Resistance: the $198–$212 band, where TXN stalled repeatedly earlier in 2025 and where multiple analysts cluster their price targets. [50]
UBS Global Technology & AI Conference: what to know
On December 2, 2025, TI CEO Haviv Ilan appeared at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference, taking investor questions about the pace of recovery across TI’s key end‑markets. [51]
While the full transcript sits behind paywalls at Seeking Alpha and GuruFocus, event coverage confirms that management fielded questions on:
- The normalization of growth after an initially strong rebound.
- Demand trends in automotive, industrial, and other core segments.
- The impact of heavy capital spending and fab ramps on margins and utilization.
Investors will be watching for any follow‑up commentary from TI’s investor relations team, especially if new details emerge around tariff exposure, factory utilization or 2026 capex plans in the coming weeks.
Labor restructuring: legacy fabs closing as 300mm ramps
Not all recent headlines are positive. A late‑October report indicated that Texas Instruments plans to lay off around 400 employees in North Texas as it shuts older 150mm fabs in Dallas and Sherman, shifting resources toward newer 300mm facilities. [52]
The company has emphasized that:
- The layoffs are tied to the transition from legacy production lines to more cost‑efficient 300mm fabs.
- Displaced workers will be given priority for roles at new sites, part of a broader plan that envisions up to 60,000 jobs being created by its massive U.S. fab program over time. [53]
For investors, this highlights both the scale of change happening inside TI’s manufacturing footprint and the execution risk if demand fails to fully absorb the new capacity.
So, is Texas Instruments stock a buy right now?
Putting today’s news and the latest research together, a few themes stand out:
- Fundamentals are strong, but the cycle is slow.
Q3 results showed double‑digit revenue growth and solid profitability, yet Q4 guidance underscored that industrial and auto demand are still recovering more slowly than hoped, and tariffs remain a wild card. [54] - Valuation sits in a gray zone.
With TXN trading at roughly 30–33x trailing earnings and a mid‑20s–high‑20s forward multiple, most models see limited upside unless margins and growth beat expectations—and some see modest downside if the analog cycle stays sluggish. [55] - Dividend and balance sheet provide a floor.
A yield north of 3%, 22 years of dividend increases, and a history of robust free cash flow make TXN attractive to income and quality‑focused investors, even if growth isn’t spectacular in the near term. [56] - Institutional money is voting with its wallet.
The combination of Norges Bank’s new $2.8B stake, continued accumulation by the likes of Invesco and Vanguard, and a flurry of smaller fund purchases suggests that large, long‑term investors are comfortable buying TXN on dips, even as some sell‑side shops turn more cautious. [57] - Risk‑reward depends on your time horizon.
- Short‑term traders are dealing with a stock that has already run hard into early December and could be vulnerable to profit‑taking or further macro shocks. [58]
- Long‑term investors who believe TI will successfully fill its new fabs and eventually normalize margins may see the current level as a chance to own a high‑quality analog franchise at a valuation that’s no longer extreme but still not cheap.
What to watch next
For anyone following TXN into year‑end, the key upcoming catalysts are:
- Q4 2025 earnings (expected January 22, 2026): any revision to guidance, margin commentary or capex plans will likely drive the next major move. [59]
- Further tariff or trade headlines: particularly around U.S.–China semiconductor policy, which could either unlock pent‑up industrial demand or prolong customer caution. [60]
- Updates on U.S. fab ramp and CHIPS Act support: progress milestones at Sherman, Richardson and Lehi, as well as any new government incentives, will shape long‑term returns on the $60B investment. [61]
For now, Texas Instruments stock has clearly regained momentum, powered by a mix of institutional buying, dividend appeal and optimism about a longer‑term industrial recovery—but with the market still split on valuation, TXN remains a battleground name rather than a consensus favorite.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own financial situation and consult a professional adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. investor.ti.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. stockinvest.us, 11. stockinvest.us, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. investor.ti.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.benzinga.com, 33. www.ti.com, 34. www.ti.com, 35. www.ti.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.barrons.com, 40. www.barrons.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.moomoo.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. simplywall.st, 47. simplywall.st, 48. stockinvest.us, 49. www.ainvest.com, 50. www.marketwatch.com, 51. seekingalpha.com, 52. www.tomshardware.com, 53. www.tomshardware.com, 54. www.marketbeat.com, 55. stockanalysis.com, 56. investor.ti.com, 57. www.marketbeat.com, 58. stockinvest.us, 59. www.marketbeat.com, 60. www.reuters.com, 61. www.ti.com
