Australian investors head into Thursday’s session with the S&P/ASX 200 sitting just below record territory, global risk assets buoyed by fresh hopes of US rate cuts, and copper and gold trading near all‑time highs. At 7am AEST, ASX futures were pointing to a mildly positive start, up around 0.1%, suggesting a modestly firmer open for the Australian share market on 4 December 2025. [1]
Below is your comprehensive guide to what happened on the ASX yesterday, what moved overseas markets overnight, and the key data and stock stories likely to shape trading when the opening bell rings.
1. Where the ASX 200 Stands After Wednesday’s GDP “Rollercoaster”
The local share market finished Wednesday in the green, but only just, after a wild ride around the latest GDP release.
- S&P/ASX 200: up 15.5 points (+0.18%) to 8,595.2
- All Ordinaries: up 16.7 points (+0.19%) to 8,894.2 [2]
The index jumped more than 40 points intraday after quarterly GDP came in weaker than consensus but stronger than many feared, before fading back as rate markets pared expectations for cuts and even began flirting with RBA hikes further out. [3]
Sector performance
Eight of 11 sectors closed higher, with a familiar pattern: yield‑sensitive defensives and resources leading, and pockets of growth under pressure. [4]
- Best sectors:
- Utilities +0.92%
- Energy +0.76% (coal and uranium names especially strong)
- Real Estate +0.73%
- Information Technology +0.69% at the sector level, despite some big individual losers
- Lagging sectors:
- Health Care −0.76%
- Industrials −0.34%
- Consumer Staples −0.10%
Key movers on Wednesday
- Uranium & coal
Uranium and coal stocks were “clear stars” of the day, driving the outperformance of the Energy index as sentiment stayed hot in nuclear and thermal coal names. Coronado, Terracom and other coal producers posted double‑digit gains across the broader market, while uranium plays such as Paladin also surged. - Big resource names
BHP gained about 0.9% as iron ore futures traded near 10‑month highs around US$107–108 a tonne, supported by firmer steel prices and expectations of Chinese policy support. Gold miners were mixed: Evolution rose, while Newmont eased, even as spot gold hovered around record territory. [5] - Tech: WTC soars, Megaport and Block sink
- WiseTech Global (WTC) jumped roughly 4.5% after its investor day highlighted productivity gains and cost efficiencies from AI, helping turn the sector from a pre‑lunch slump into a modest gain by the close. [6]
- Megaport (MP1) and Block (ASX:SQ2, “XYZ” in local listing data) fell around 6–6.3%, as higher bond yields weighed heavily on high‑multiple growth names. [7]
- Financials & insurers
The big four banks eked out a modest 0.2% sector gain, with ANZ leading after its CEO was appointed chair of the Australian Banking Association. Insurers were under pressure, with Suncorp and QBE shedding more than 2% each amid rate and catastrophe‑risk jitters. [8]
Overall, breadth was positive but uninspiring – advancers only just outpaced decliners in the S&P/ASX 300 – reflecting a market that’s still digesting the implications of sticky inflation and shifting central‑bank expectations.
2. Overnight Leads: Wall Street, Europe and Asia
Wall Street: data‑driven rally with a tech wobble
US stocks extended their recent run, with all three major indices edging higher and remaining close to record levels:
- Dow Jones: up around 0.9%
- S&P 500: up about 0.4%
- Nasdaq Composite: up roughly 0.3% [9]
The move was powered by softer economic data that reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates at next week’s meeting:
- ADP’s private payrolls report showed a surprise drop of 32,000 jobs, the biggest fall in more than two‑and‑a‑half years.
- US services activity held broadly steady, pointing to a cooling but not collapsing economy. [10]
- Fed funds futures now imply roughly an 89% chance of a 25 bp cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. [11]
However, the rally was not evenly spread:
- Microsoft slid nearly 3% after reports it had lowered AI software sales quotas following missed internal targets, dragging the S&P tech sector about 0.7% lower – the worst‑performing S&P 500 group.
- Energy and several old‑economy sectors advanced, while chipmakers were mixed: some AI‑linked names rose on deal activity and upbeat guidance, while others fell on renewed concerns over AI demand pacing. [12]
The US 10‑year Treasury yield slipped towards 4.06%, extending a retreat that’s taken pressure off global equity valuations, even as some big asset managers, including BlackRock, warn that long‑term yields may need to rise again to fund AI‑related investment and government borrowing. [13]
Europe and Asia
- Europe: The pan‑European STOXX 600 finished essentially flat, with tech strength offset by weaker financials. In London, the FTSE 100 closed slightly lower as banks dragged, even while miners benefited from strong metals prices. [14]
- Japan: The Nikkei added more than 1%, helped by tech and exporters, even as Japanese bond yields climbed to multi‑year highs. [15]
- China & Hong Kong: Mainland and Hong Kong indices fell around 0.5–1.3% as slowing services activity and ongoing property‑sector concerns kept investors cautious. [16]
For Australia, the most important offshore cue is that global equities remain broadly risk‑on, but leadership is rotating away from mega‑cap US tech toward commodities and cyclicals – a backdrop that often favours the resource‑heavy ASX.
3. Bonds, the Fed and RBA: A Tale of Two Yield Curves
One of the sharpest macro themes for ASX traders this week is the diverging path of US and Australian bond yields.
- In the US, weaker labour data have pushed Treasury yields lower, with the 10‑year around 4.06% and the 30‑year also easing. [17]
- In contrast, Australian bond yields keep marching higher:
- 2‑year Commonwealth yield around 3.92%, more than 60 basis points above its October lows
- 10‑year yield rising from roughly 4.09% to about 4.65% over the past couple of months [18]
Market strategists note that 2‑year yields are now trading more than 30 bp above the RBA cash rate of 3.60%, a strong signal that traders see the next RBA move as a hike, not a cut, albeit likely pushed out toward late 2026. [19]
From an equity perspective, that combination of:
- Falling US yields (supportive for global risk assets), and
- Rising Australian yields (a headwind for high‑growth and rate‑sensitive local names)
helps explain why Wednesday’s biggest losers included tech and REIT names like Megaport, Block and HMC Capital, while resource and income‑oriented stocks outperformed. [20]
4. Commodity Check: Copper Record, Gold Near Highs, Oil and Iron Ore Mixed
For the ASX, commodities are often more important than Wall Street – and this morning’s tape is particularly interesting.
Copper: new records
Copper prices have blasted to new record highs:
- Benchmark LME three‑month copper traded near US$11,465 a tonne after touching an intraday record around US$11,540, driven by a weaker US dollar, supply disruptions and tightening stocks in exchange warehouses. [21]
This surge is being framed as part of the broader AI and green‑energy build‑out, which is fueling long‑term demand expectations and has major implications for global miners — including ASX‑listed giants with significant copper exposure.
Expect copper‑leveraged stocks (think BHP, South32 and smaller pure‑play copper names) to be in focus at the open.
Gold and silver: safe‑haven strength
- Spot gold is hovering just above US$4,200 an ounce, only a small step below recent record highs, after spiking above US$4,240 intraday as traders priced in a near‑term Fed cut. [22]
- Silver recently hit an all‑time high around US$56–57 an ounce, underpinning strong flows into silver‑exposed miners and explorers.
ASX gold producers such as Evolution, Northern Star and Newmont, along with silver‑focused juniors highlighted in recent local research, are likely to react to any further moves in precious metals during today’s session.
Iron ore: still elevated, but off intraday highs
Iron ore futures eased slightly overnight:
- The most‑traded January contract in Dalian was about 0.2% lower around 799.5 yuan (roughly US$113/t), as traders weighed softer demand signals against the prospect of pro‑growth targets from upcoming Chinese economic meetings. [23]
Even so, futures remain near 10‑month highs, supporting the earnings outlook for the iron ore majors and explaining why BHP outperformed its peers on Wednesday. [24]
Oil and gas: modest recovery
Crude prices are attempting a cautious rebound:
- WTI crude is trading around US$59 a barrel, with Brent near US$63, up roughly 1% on the day but still down from early‑November levels amid lingering demand and geopolitical uncertainties. [25]
The move has been enough to keep energy names such as Santos, Woodside and Ampol supported, but not so strong as to create major inflation fears – a sweet spot for the ASX if it holds. [26]
Natural gas prices are also near three‑month highs, adding another tailwind for select energy producers. [27]
5. Currency Watch: Aussie Dollar Near a Three‑Week High
The Australian dollar is trading around US$0.66, close to a three‑week high and up roughly 0.3–0.4% versus the US dollar over the past 24 hours. [28]
Drivers:
- Solid, if unspectacular, GDP growth (0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y)
- A perception that the RBA will hold rates higher for longer than many peers
- Ongoing strength in key Australian export commodities, especially iron ore and gold [29]
A stronger currency is:
- Negative for offshore‑earnings heavyweights (global healthcare, some tech and industrial exporters)
- Positive for importers and outbound travel/leisure names
With Australia’s trade balance data due at 11:30am AEDT, FX traders will be watching closely for any surprise that could jolt the Aussie and, by extension, local equity sentiment – particularly in resource names and rate‑sensitive sectors.
6. Australian Macro: GDP Recap and Today’s Data
Wednesday’s GDP release confirmed that the economy is slowing, but still growing:
- Q3 2025 GDP:
- +0.4% quarter‑on‑quarter
- +2.1% year‑on‑year
- GDP per capita was flat over the quarter, up just 0.4% over the year, underlining the squeeze on household living standards.
Key takeaways from ABS and economist commentary:
- Private investment jumped, supported by data centre and capital imports, while public investment rose on infrastructure and renewable projects. [30]
- Household consumption rose modestly, with spending on essentials up and discretionary categories still under pressure. [31]
- Net trade detracted from growth as imports outpaced exports, despite strong demand for iron ore and gold. [32]
Economists broadly describe growth as “steady but restrained”, with several warning that the economy is close to its speed limit and that the consumer remains fragile even as aggregate GDP looks solid.
Today’s key domestic release
- Australia trade balance (Oct data) – 11:30am AEDT
- Recent months have seen large but volatile surpluses, driven by swings in bulk commodity export values.
- A stronger‑than‑expected surplus would likely support the AUD and resource stocks; a miss could do the opposite.
Later this week, global markets will also focus on US ISM services, the core PCE inflation gauge and consumer sentiment, all of which could further influence Fed expectations and risk appetite into next week’s central‑bank meeting. [33]
7. Company Stories to Watch at the Open
4DMedical (ASX: 4DX)
4DMedical shares rocketed around 16% on Wednesday after the company announced an expanded partnership with Philips, which will add 4D’s CT:VQ respiratory imaging technology to Philips’ North American catalogue. [34]
Highlights:
- Philips has committed to minimum orders worth US$10 million over two years (about A$15m) for CT:VQ.
- The deal significantly boosts 4DMedical’s US distribution footprint through Philips’ established network.
- Management is hosting a webinar at 11am AEDT today, which could generate further news flow and volatility. [35]
Given Wednesday’s move, traders will be watching for any follow‑through buying – or profit‑taking – as the market digests the revenue and margin implications of the deal.
Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX: VUL)
Vulcan Energy has entered a trading halt after securing a €2.2 billion (approx. A$3.9bn) financing package to fully fund Phase One of its Lionheart lithium and renewable energy project in Germany. [36]
Key elements:
- Mix of senior debt, government grants and strategic equity from European and German agencies, the European Investment Bank and commercial banks.
- Plans to raise up to €603m in equity at a discount, with large institutional participation. [37]
- Phase One is targeting about 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide annually, enough to supply batteries for roughly 500,000 EVs per year, with around 90% of output already contracted on long‑term deals. [38]
Once the halt lifts, VUL is likely to be one of the most closely watched stocks on the ASX, with traders weighing dilution from the raising against the strategic value of fully funding a flagship European lithium project in a weak price environment.
Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC)
WTC’s Investor Day 2025 helped drive a 4.5% jump in the share price on Wednesday, as management updated investors on strategic priorities and AI‑driven productivity gains. [39]
With the stock still well below its 12‑month highs, any fresh broker upgrades or downgrades following the event could spark further moves today.
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN)
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank holds its Investor Day today, 4 December, with the market keen to hear about:
- Net interest margin trends
- Cost and technology investment plans
- Capital management and dividend outlook [40]
Regional banks have lagged the majors through 2025, so any positive surprise on margins, loan growth or cost control could drive an outsized reaction in BEN and the broader regional banking cohort.
ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX)
The exchange operator remains under a cloud after a fresh outage earlier this week, when around 80 companies were placed into trading halts after a breakdown in ASX’s announcement platform prevented publication of price‑sensitive disclosures. [41]
Reuters reports that the failure – linked to a software deployment for a security upgrade – has intensified investor concerns about ASX’s long‑running tech overhaul and its ability to maintain resilient market infrastructure, particularly after the costly CHESS replacement debacle and previous system failures. [42]
Expect renewed scrutiny of ASX’s governance, capex plans and regulatory interactions, which may continue to weigh on the stock’s valuation.
Other notable themes
- Banks and financials: The combination of higher local yields and steady GDP should continue to support big banks, though insurers may remain under pressure after recent selling. [43]
- Defence and geopolitics: Australia’s new A$95m support package for Ukraine, jointly coordinated with New Zealand, keeps defence and security spending in the headlines, with potential read‑through for contractors and defence‑linked stocks. [44]
8. Five Things to Watch When the ASX Opens Today
Putting it all together, here are the key signposts for the Australian stock market open on Thursday, 4 December 2025:
- Index direction and futures
- ASX SPI futures are pointing to a slightly higher open (around +0.1–0.2%), supported by gains on Wall Street and firm commodity prices. Resources and defensives are best placed to lead, while tech and interest‑rate sensitive stocks may remain choppy. [45]
- Resource stocks vs rate‑sensitive growth
- Record copper, resilient iron ore and near‑record gold and silver create a favourable backdrop for miners, especially diversified majors and copper/gold specialists. [46]
- On the other side, rising local bond yields remain a drag on high‑multiple tech, growth and REIT names.
- Macro data at 11:30am – trade balance
- Australia’s trade numbers could move the AUD and resource names in the late morning. A strong surplus would validate the export‑led part of the bull case for the ASX; a weak print could dent sentiment.
- Stock‑specific catalysts: 4DX, VUL, WTC, BEN
- Watch 4DMedical for post‑announcement follow‑through, Vulcan Energy when it exits its trading halt, Wisetech as broker reactions land, and Bendigo Bank as it walks investors through strategy and margins.
- ASX infrastructure and confidence
- After this week’s outage and fresh scrutiny of ASX’s technology overhaul, any news or commentary from regulators or the company itself will be watched closely. Market participants are increasingly focused not just on prices, but on the reliability of the platform they trade on.
Final word
The overall setup heading into the 4 December 2025 open is cautiously constructive for the Australian share market: US and global equities are still climbing, metals are strong, and domestic data show an economy that’s slowing but not stalling. The main counterweights are rising local bond yields, a stronger Aussie dollar and ongoing concerns about the ASX’s own infrastructure.
As always, this preview is general market commentary only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives or risk tolerance. Consider seeking professional advice and doing your own research before making any investment decisions.
References
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