Goldman Sachs (GS) Stock on December 3, 2025: Near Record Highs After Dividend Hike, $2 Billion ETF Deal and Mixed 2026 Forecasts

Data and prices in this article are as of the U.S. close on December 3, 2025.

1. Goldman Sachs stock today: price, valuation and performance

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) ended trading on December 3, 2025 around $836–837 per share, near its 52‑week high of $841.28. That gives the Wall Street bank a market capitalization of roughly $260 billion, with a trailing P/E near 17x, forward P/E in the mid‑teens, and dividend yield just under 2%. ^[1]

Over the past year, Goldman Sachs stock has climbed about 36–40%, far outpacing the broader financial sector and the S&P 500. Zacks data from mid‑November showed GS up 43.6% year‑to‑date, ahead of peer banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. ^[2]

Key snapshot as of December 3, 2025: ^[3]

• Last price: ~$836.6
• 52‑week range: $439.38 – $841.28
• Market cap: ≈ $250–262 billion
• EPS (ttm): ≈ $49.2
• P/E (ttm): ~16.9–17.0
• Price‑to‑book: ~1.9x
• Dividend (annualized): $16.00 per share
• Dividend yield: ~1.9%
• Beta: ~1.3–1.4 (higher than the broad market)

GS is also one of the highest‑priced and most influential components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meaning its daily moves can significantly sway the index. ^[4]

2. Fresh catalysts this week: dividend, ex‑div date and ETF expansion

2.1. New $4.00 quarterly dividend and ex‑div date

Goldman Sachs confirmed a quarterly cash dividend of $4.00 per share, with an ex‑dividend date of December 2, 2025 and payment scheduled for later in the month. At current prices, that equates to an annualized dividend of $16.00 and a yield of roughly 1.9–2.0%. TS2 Tech+2ChartMill+2

That payout looks well‑covered:

• TTM EPS is around $49, implying a payout ratio in the low‑ to mid‑30% range, depending on the earnings definition used. TS2 Tech+1
• Goldman has room to keep returning capital through dividends and buybacks while maintaining regulatory capital buffers.

For income‑oriented investors, GS is not a high‑yield bank stock, but the dividend is becoming a more visible part of the total‑return story as earnings climb.

2.2. $2 billion Innovator Capital ETF acquisition

The headline strategic move this week is Goldman’s plan to acquire Innovator Capital Management, a specialist in “defined outcome” ETFs, in a deal valued at about $2 billion in cash and stock. ^[5]

Key deal details:

• Target: Innovator Capital Management, managing about $28 billion across 159 ETFs focused on buffered and outcome‑oriented strategies.
• Consideration: Roughly $2 billion, paid in a mix of cash and GS shares.
• Expected close: Around Q2 2026, subject to regulatory approval.
• Post‑deal scale: Goldman’s ETF platform plus Innovator is expected to oversee more than 215 ETF strategies and over $75 billion in ETF assets, pushing Goldman into the top tier of active/structured ETF providers. ^[6]

Why this matters for GS stock:

• It accelerates the firm’s pivot away from capital‑intensive consumer lending and deeper into fee‑based Asset & Wealth Management, a priority under CEO David Solomon. ^[7]
• Defined‑outcome and active ETFs sit in a fast‑growing market segment, with industry data showing very high compound growth rates since 2020 as investors seek downside buffers and more tailored return profiles. TS2 Tech+1
• The deal offers obvious cross‑selling potential: Goldman can distribute Innovator’s strategies across its global private‑wealth and institutional channels, while Innovator gains a much larger distribution platform. ^[8]

The market reaction so far has been constructive—GS remains close to its record highs, suggesting investors view the deal as strategically sensible and not overly dilutive.

3. Q3 2025 earnings: record revenues underpinning the rally

The foundations for Goldman’s 2025 share‑price surge are its strong 2025 earnings trajectory, particularly the latest quarter.

For Q3 2025 (quarter ended September 30):

• Net revenues:$15.18 billion, up about 19–20% year‑over‑year
• Net earnings:$4.10 billion
• Diluted EPS:$12.25
• Annualized ROE:14.2% ^[9]

Management highlighted:

• Broad‑based strength across Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management
• A rebound in M&A advisory, underwriting and capital‑markets issuance as dealmaking revived in 2025 ^[10]
• Growing use of AI tools within the firm to drive efficiency and client service, a theme David Solomon has repeated in recent media appearances. ^[11]

Third‑party analysis (including Seeking Alpha and other platforms) generally framed the quarter as a clear beat versus consensus, with revenue growth around 20% and strength in all major segments, supporting the idea that GS is operating at a high, but sustainable, earnings run‑rate. ^[12]

4. What Wall Street analysts are saying: price targets and ratings

Despite the impressive rally, sell‑side analysts are cautious on upside from here.

Across several aggregators, the consensus 12‑month price targets cluster slightly below the current share price:

• MarketBeat:
  • 21 analysts
  • Average target: ~$786
  • Range: ~$600 (low) to ~$890 (high)
  • Implied downside of about 6% vs. current levels. ^[13]
• StockAnalysis:
  • 14 analysts
  • Consensus rating: “Hold”
  • Average target:$748.77, about 10.5% below today’s price. ^[14]
• ChartMill:
  • 32 analysts
  • Average target:$807.86, implying roughly 3–4% downside
  • Forecasts EPS growth of ~23% and revenue growth of ~13% over the next year. ^[15]
• Zacks price‑target range:
  • Cites a wide band from roughly $608 to $960, underscoring how divided analysts are on GS’s fair value. ^[16]
• Longer‑dated view (2026):
  • One compilation of 24 analysts’ 2026 targets puts the average around $832–833, barely above the current price, with only modest average upside and a mix of Buy and Hold ratings (15 Buys, 16 Holds, 1 Sell). ^[17]

Bottom line:
Most traditional Wall Street analysts see limited near‑term upside from current levels. The stock’s strong run in 2025 means much of the good news on earnings and rates may already be priced in, though a few high targets still imply meaningful further gains if conditions remain exceptionally favorable.

5. Quant models and long‑term forecasts: strong trend, mixed valuation

Beyond human analysts, a variety of quantitative and technical platforms are publishing GS forecasts as of early December.

5.1. Technical momentum

ChartMill assigns Goldman Sachs a 10/10 technical rating, noting that the stock has outperformed nearly 88% of all U.S. stocks over the past year and remains in a firm uptrend, with the price comfortably above short‑ and long‑term moving averages. ^[18]

StockScan’s technical dashboard also leans bullish:

• Most key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100 days) sit below the current price and flash “Buy”.
• Its aggregated indicator summary currently labels GS a “Strong Buy” from a technical standpoint. ^[19]

5.2. Algorithmic price projections

Where quant models diverge sharply from Wall Street is in their multi‑year price paths:

• StockScan’s long‑term model projects average prices for 2026–2030 generally below today’s level, implying mid‑teens percentage downside over the next few years, before forecasting GS to trade well above $1,200–2,100 per share by 2035–2050, a 50–160% gain from current levels. ^[20]

These figures come with huge uncertainty and should be treated as illustrative scenarios, not firm predictions. They’re highly sensitive to assumptions about earnings growth, margins, discount rates and share repurchases.

In short: quant models agree that GS is in a strong uptrend now, but several also suggest the stock could consolidate or even trade lower for a period before any very long‑term upside is realized.

6. Options market and “smart money” flows

6.1. Unusually heavy call buying

On Monday, options traders piled into Goldman Sachs calls. A MarketBeat options scan recorded 79,890 call options traded on GS in a single session, roughly 140% above the usual daily call volume (~33,000 contracts). ^[21]

That kind of surge in call activity often signals:

• Short‑term bullish speculation on further upside
• Or hedging of existing short positions or concentrated long exposure

At the same time, the article notes that GS’s valuation metrics (P/E in the mid‑teens, PEG around 1.4) still look reasonable compared with growth rates, even as the stock trades near all‑time highs. ^[22]

6.2. Institutional investors: net interest remains strong

Recent 13F‑driven headlines show large asset managers actively adjusting their GS positions:

• 1832 Asset Management L.P. boosted its GS holdings by more than 4,100% in Q2, to roughly 219,891 shares, according to a MarketBeat summary published December 3. ^[23]
• Invesco Ltd. trimmed its stake by about 4.6% in the same quarter but still holds more than 2.8 million GS shares, underlining that it remains a significant institutional owner. ^[24]
• Edgestream Partners L.P., a hedge fund, increased its GS position by about 1,463% to over 20,000 shares, making the stock one of its more meaningful holdings. ^[25]

Across data providers, institutional ownership is typically reported in the low‑ to mid‑70% range, reinforcing Goldman’s status as a core holding among large asset managers. ^[26]

Overall, the “smart money” narrative is nuanced: some large holders are taking profits into strength, while others are aggressively adding on the belief that earnings power and capital returns still justify owning GS near its highs.

7. Macro backdrop: rates, M&A and what it means for Goldman

Goldman’s earnings — and by extension its stock — are tightly linked to interest rates, market volatility and deal activity.

7.1. Fed cuts and the rate outlook

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps in October 2025, bringing the target range down to 3.75%–4.00%. ^[27]

Markets and big banks now expect:

• A high probability of another cut at the December FOMC meeting, as economic data show cooling growth and a softer labor market. ^[28]
• Additional easing into early 2026, creating a more supportive environment for risk assets and capital markets issuance.

For Goldman Sachs, that backdrop is a double‑edged sword:

• Lower rates can boost M&A, IPOs and debt issuance, which are all fee‑rich areas for GS.
• But if cuts are driven by rising recession risk, they could hurt corporate confidence and ultimately weigh on deal flow.

7.2. M&A and capital‑markets cycle

Goldman’s own research has published a bullish M&A outlook for 2H 2025 and beyond, noting that strategic buyers and sponsors are increasingly willing to do deals as rate uncertainty recedes. ^[29]

This has already started to show up in the numbers:

• Q3 advisory revenues rose sharply, with some estimates pointing to around 60% year‑on‑year growth in M&A fees as dealmaking rebounded from the 2022–2023 slowdown. TS2 Tech+1

Combined with strong trading, this environment helps explain why GS has delivered record or near‑record quarterly revenues while many investors still worry about the broader business cycle.

8. Key risks: valuation, market correction and regulatory overhang

Even bulls acknowledge several important risks for Goldman Sachs stock from here:

1. Valuation creep
   • Trading around 17x trailing earnings and nearly 2x book, GS now commands a premium to its own recent history, even if it still looks cheaper than some high‑growth financial peers. ^[30]
2. Potential equity market correction
   • Goldman’s CEO and other large‑bank CEOs have publicly warned that, after the AI‑driven surge, global equities could easily see a correction of 10–20%. ^[31]
   • As a major trading and capital‑markets house, GS would almost certainly feel the impact on revenues and its own share price in such a scenario.
3. Model‑based “overvaluation” flags
   • Some intrinsic‑value models (discounted cash flow, economic‑profit frameworks) suggest GS might be overvalued on conservative long‑run assumptions, even if simple multiples look reasonable. TS2 Tech+1
4. Regulatory and political risk
   • Large U.S. banks continue to face evolving capital and liquidity rules, as well as political scrutiny around compensation, risk‑taking and AI deployment.

9. Is Goldman Sachs (GS) stock a buy, hold or sell right now?

From the vantage point of December 3, 2025, the investment case for Goldman Sachs stock can be summarized as follows.

Bullish arguments

• Strong fundamentals: Double‑digit revenue growth, a Q3 earnings beat, mid‑teens ROE and a robust capital position. ^[32]
• Strategic pivot to fee‑based businesses: The Innovator acquisition and broader ETF/wealth push tilt the mix toward more stable, recurring fee income and away from balance‑sheet‑heavy consumer lending. ^[33]
• Shareholder returns: A $16 annual dividend plus ongoing buybacks provide a solid shareholder‑return framework, with room for growth as earnings expand. ^[34]
• Technical strength: The stock is in a strong uptrend and has outperformed both the financial sector and the broader market over the past year. ^[35]

Cautious / bearish arguments

• Near record highs after a ~40% YTD rally: Much of the “easy money” has likely already been made, and consensus price targets generally sit below today’s price. ^[36]
• Macro uncertainty: Further Fed cuts could come because growth is slowing, not accelerating, which would eventually weigh on deal activity and risk appetite. ^[37]
• Model dispersion: From Zacks to StockScan, valuation and forecast models range from material downside over the next few years to very large upside by the 2030s — a reminder that outcomes are highly uncertain. ^[38]

10. How different types of investors might think about GS now

This is not financial advice, but framing GS through a few investor lenses can be helpful:

• Long‑term, diversified investors
  Might view Goldman Sachs as a core financial holding: a systemically important bank with strong earnings power, a growing fee‑based franchise and a reasonable (if no longer cheap) valuation.
• Income‑oriented investors
  May appreciate the near‑2% dividend yield, solid coverage and potential for dividend growth, though there are higher‑yielding bank stocks available if income is the primary objective.
• Value or contrarian investors
  Could hesitate at current levels: with consensus targets below the market price and some models flashing “overvalued,” they may prefer to wait for a pullback or a broader market correction.
• Momentum / technical traders
  Will notice the strong uptrend, positive technical ratings and heavy call‑options activity, which together paint a bullish short‑term trading picture — albeit with elevated volatility risk. ^[39]

Final word

As of December 3, 2025, Goldman Sachs (GS) is a high‑quality franchise trading near record highs, powered by record revenues, a fresh dividend payout and a transformative ETF acquisition. Consensus Wall Street forecasts suggest modest downside or flat returns over the next 12 months, but both technical trends and long‑term structural tailwinds argue that GS could remain a core blue‑chip holding for investors who can ride out volatility.

Whether that makes the stock a Buy, Hold or Sell for you depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and existing exposure to bank and capital‑markets risk. Before making any decision, consider consulting a qualified financial adviser and stress‑testing how a sharp market correction — or a slower‑than‑expected M&A cycle — would affect your overall portfolio.

References

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