Glencore plc has just given investors a dense package of news: a big copper growth story, 1,000 job cuts, fresh project announcements in Canada, Chile and Argentina, and tighter production guidance across its portfolio. As of Thursday, 4 December 2025, the stock is digesting all of that at levels close to its 52‑week high — and still tethered to coal cash flows.
Below is a structured look at Glencore’s latest moves, the current GLEN share price, and how analysts now see the stock.
GLEN share price on 4 December 2025
Glencore’s London‑listed shares (ticker: GLEN) closed at around 378p on 4 December 2025. According to daily data from Investing.com, the stock finished the session at 377.60p, down about 1.4% on the day after opening at 386p and trading in a 376.85–386.65p range. [1]
That slight pullback followed a 6.3% surge on 3 December, when GLEN jumped from 360.35p to 383.10p as the market reacted to the company’s Capital Markets Day in London and a barrage of copper‑related announcements. [2]
Over the last couple of weeks the stock has quietly rerated: from roughly 335p on 21 November to 377–383p in early December, a gain of about 13% in less than two weeks. Over the past year, GLEN has traded between 205p and 397.4p, meaning the current price sits roughly 5% below its 52‑week peak and more than 80% above the lows. [3]
On the US OTC line, GLNCY closed at $10.16 on 3 December, up 7.3% on the day, after a strong November run that took the ADR from roughly $9 to above $10. [4]
In short: Glencore enters 4 December trading near the top of its recent range, with momentum turning positive after a choppy year.
What Glencore just told investors at Capital Markets Day 2025
Glencore’s 2025 Capital Markets Day (CMD), held on 3 December, was framed around one core message: copper is the growth engine, but coal still pays a lot of the bills.
From the company’s own CMD statement and materials: [5]
- Management highlighted a “clear pathway” for base copper production to exceed 1 million tonnes by 2028, with a target of around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
- Group “copper‑equivalent” production is guided to grow at about 4% per year between 2026 and 2029, with copper itself rising at roughly 9.4% annually in that period.
- The company confirmed the restart of the Alumbrera copper/gold mine in Argentina, as part of a broader portfolio of mostly brownfield copper expansions.
Glencore also emphasised its shareholder‑return credentials, pointing to $25.3 billion of announced returns over the last five years and signalling that the copper growth pipeline should be largely self‑funded, supplemented by project partners where that helps manage risk. [6]
This copper narrative is being deployed against a backdrop of copper prices that recently hit record highs in London, with futures above $11,400 per tonne, thanks to supply disruptions and structural demand from electrification and data‑centre build‑out. [7]
Cost‑cutting, restructuring and 1,000 job cuts
The growth story has a more austere flip side. Glencore is also cutting about 1,000 jobs as part of a sweeping operational review.
According to reporting from the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal: [8]
- The company is pursuing a $1 billion recurring cost‑saving programme to shore up profitability after a period of lower coal prices and operational issues in copper.
- Glencore is merging its nickel and zinc units, simplifying its industrial structure to focus on accountability and performance.
- Several smelting assets will be shut or reconfigured, including two smelters in South Africa, as ferrochrome and some processing operations struggle with high energy costs and weak margins.
This cost push builds on changes already flagged earlier in 2025, when Glencore reported a net loss of $655m in the first half, triple the loss of the prior year, and kicked off a formal review of its listing structure and portfolio. [9]
Despite the tough headlines, the market liked the new discipline: FT reporting notes that Glencore’s shares rose more than 6% on the back of the CMD disclosures and restructuring detail. [10]
Copper: from slump to long‑term supercycle bet
The big tension in the Glencore story is that near‑term copper production is weak while the company is selling a long‑term copper super‑cycle pitch.
Current copper production and guidance
In its Q3 2025 production report, Glencore disclosed: [11]
- Own‑sourced copper production of 583,500 tonnes for the first nine months of 2025, down 17% year on year, largely due to lower grades and mine sequencing at Collahuasi (Chile), Antamina (Peru), Antapaccay (Peru) and KCC in the DRC.
- A strong Q3 rebound, with copper output 36% higher than Q2, as grades improved and operations ramped back up.
- Updated full‑year 2025 copper guidance tightened to 850,000–875,000 tonnes, from a previous 850,000–890,000‑tonne range.
Reuters summarised the situation bluntly: copper is under‑delivering versus earlier expectations, even as trading and coal businesses remain solid. [12]
Cutting 2026 guidance but promising a surge after 2028
Mining.com’s coverage of the CMD adds another important detail: Glencore has cut its 2026 copper target even while stretching its long‑term ambitions. [13]
- 2026 copper guidance has been reduced to 810,000–870,000 tonnes, down from a previous 930,000‑tonne target, reflecting setbacks at the Collahuasi mine in Chile (owned with Anglo American) and other assets.
- Management reiterated that copper output should still reach about 1 million tonnes in 2028, and ramp towards 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, assuming projects like Alumbrera and expansions in Africa and South America proceed as planned.
This means investors are being asked to look through at least two more years of constrained copper volumes to a more lucrative horizon later in the decade.
New projects in Canada, Chile and Argentina
To back up the copper narrative, Glencore has rolled out a slate of new or revived projects.
Canada: Sudbury joint venture with Vale
Vale’s base metals arm and Glencore are exploring a joint copper project in the Sudbury Basin, Ontario, combining neighbouring properties in a brownfield development using Glencore’s existing Nickel Rim South shaft infrastructure. [14]
Key points from Vale’s announcement and industry reporting:
- Estimated capex of $1.6–2.0 billion.
- Planned output of around 880,000 tonnes of copper over 21 years, plus nickel, cobalt, gold and other critical minerals.
- The intention is for Vale and Glencore eventually to form a 50/50 joint venture, sharing underground operations and infrastructure.
- A final investment decision is pencilled in for the first half of 2027, following engineering and permitting work in 2026.
For Glencore, Sudbury offers a relatively capital‑efficient copper growth option in a politically stable jurisdiction, while leveraging infrastructure it already owns.
Chile: Smelter tie‑up with Codelco
In Chile, Glencore has signed a preliminary agreement with state‑owned Codelco to build a large copper smelter in the Antofagasta region. [15]
Under the framework:
- Glencore would build and operate a facility able to process 1.5 million tonnes of copper concentrate per year.
- Codelco would supply up to 800,000 tonnes annually for at least ten years.
- The project is estimated at $1.5–2 billion, with a pre‑feasibility study now starting and a final agreement targeted in the first half of 2026.
- Construction could begin around 2030, with operations between 2032 and 2033.
This fits Chile’s policy push to process more copper domestically, reducing reliance on Chinese smelters and capturing more of the value chain — while giving Glencore a strategic foothold in downstream processing during a period of tight global smelting capacity.
Argentina: Alumbrera restart and incentives
Glencore is also restarting the Alumbrera mine in Catamarca, northern Argentina, which has been idle since 2018. [16]
According to Glencore and Reuters:
- Alumbrera is expected to restart in Q4 2026, with first production in the first half of 2028.
- Once fully ramped, it is expected to produce roughly 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years (as part of a broader regional project). [17]
- The decision was helped by Argentina’s new Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers tax incentives and regulatory stability for large projects. [18]
Alumbrera also plays a strategic role in the integrated MARA (Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera) project, reducing ramp‑up risk for concentrators and logistics and keeping key infrastructure and workforce capabilities “warm” ahead of larger expansions. [19]
Chile again: staying level in Collahuasi/Quebrada Blanca
Glencore has signalled that, if Anglo American completes its agreed merger with Teck Resources, it wants to keep an equal stake in any combination of their Chilean assets — the Collahuasi mine (where Glencore is currently a partner) and Teck’s nearby Quebrada Blanca operation. Management has stated it is “not willing to be a junior partner” and is prepared to inject capital to keep its stake level in any future combination. [20]
That stance underlines how central Chile’s giant copper deposits remain to Glencore’s long‑term strategy.
Coal: still the cash cow in the background
For all the talk of copper and critical minerals, coal remains a powerful profit driver for Glencore.
From the Q3 2025 production report and subsequent coverage: [21]
- Energy coal output for the first nine months of 2025 was 73.5 million tonnes, slightly ahead of the same period in 2024, with full‑year guidance raised to 92–97 million tonnes (from 90–96 million).
- Steelmaking (metallurgical) coal production reached 24.7 million tonnes year‑to‑date, now guided at 30–35 million tonnes for 2025, helped by the integration of the Canadian EVR assets acquired in 2024.
- Coal production, expressed in copper equivalents, helped keep total group “copper‑equivalent” output marginally higher year on year, even as headline copper tonnes fell.
Alliance News data cited by Fintel shows Glencore narrowing guidance on other key commodities as well: zinc production is now expected at 950,000–975,000 tonnes (slightly higher mid‑point), while cobalt and nickel forecasts have been trimmed. [22]
Glencore had previously explored spinning off its coal arm, but in 2025 it effectively reversed course, consolidating Canadian coal assets into a single unit run from Australia, and leaning into coal as a continuing cash engine during the transition. [23]
Listing, losses and London’s relevance
Back in August, Glencore decided not to shift its primary listing from London to the US, after a formal review.
The company concluded that, despite the deeper investor pool in New York, the costs and complexity of becoming a US domestic issuer or launching a sponsored ADR did not currently offer clear value for shareholders. [24]
That review came alongside weaker financials:
- In H1 2025, Glencore reported a net loss of $655m, nearly three times the loss of the prior‑year period, driven by lower coal prices, copper production issues and macro volatility (including US tariff uncertainty). [25]
- Management responded with the current $1bn cost‑cutting plan and a renewed focus on operational performance — the same programme now being fleshed out with the 1,000 job cuts and asset rationalisations announced around the CMD. [26]
For UK markets already worried about a “London listing exodus”, Glencore’s decision to stay put was a small but symbolically important win for the FTSE 100. [27]
How analysts and models now see Glencore stock
The recent rally hasn’t removed the debate around GLEN. Analyst and model‑driven views are nuanced rather than unanimously bullish.
Price targets and ratings
MarketBeat’s aggregation of broker research shows: [28]
- A consensus 12‑month price target in roughly the 390–400p range, based on six analyst reports, implying moderate upside (low‑ to mid‑single‑digit) from current levels around 378p.
- A target range spanning 350p to 470p, signalling that views differ sharply depending on assumptions around copper, coal and ESG risk.
- The stock carrying multiple “buy” or “overweight” ratings, but with lingering concerns about leverage and earnings volatility.
Some retail‑focused outlets note that the share price is around 25% higher than three months ago, and flag consensus forecasts of a forward dividend yield of about 2.1% for 2025, rising towards 2.7–2.8% in 2026 — attractive, but not extreme, given the risk profile. [29]
Growth projections and profitability
Simply Wall St’s modelling for the US OTC line GLCN.F suggests: [30]
- Earnings (EPS) growth of roughly 50–53% per year over the next few years, as production normalises and cost savings come through.
- Revenue growth of under 1% annually, underscoring how much of the earnings swing is expected to come from margins and mix rather than sheer volume expansion.
- A future return on equity around 12%, respectable but not spectacular for a cyclical miner/trader.
In other words: the models are essentially pricing a margin‑driven rebound from a low base, not a smooth secular growth story.
Balance sheet and risk metrics
On the more cautious side, MarketBeat highlights that: [31]
- Glencore’s debt‑to‑equity ratio sits above 70%, indicating significant leverage relative to equity.
- The quick ratio is close to 0.3, suggesting limited liquid assets versus short‑term liabilities, although this is partly a feature of commodity‑trading balance sheets.
- Trailing P/E is currently negative, distorted by impairments and cyclical earnings hits, which makes valuation metrics harder to read than for a “steady state” industrial.
Some quant‑style services and value screens therefore flag Glencore as a potentially undervalued cyclical, while also warning that headline ratios may not fully capture trading risk, regulatory overhangs and ESG concerns. [32]
Bull vs bear case in December 2025
Putting the pieces together, the argument around Glencore stock as of 4 December 2025 looks something like this.
Bullish arguments
- Cyclical leverage to copper: If the copper price stays elevated or rises further, Glencore’s expanded pipeline (Sudbury, Alumbrera, African copper, Chilean partnerships) gives it strong torque to the energy‑transition narrative. [33]
- Coal cash machine: Energy and steelmaking coal continue to throw off cash, supporting shareholder returns even as copper output temporarily lags. [34]
- Cost savings and restructuring: The $1bn cost‑cutting plan, asset rationalisations and headcount reductions could meaningfully lift margins if executed well. [35]
- Shareholder‑return track record: $25.3bn of announced returns over five years signals a clear willingness to feed cash back to investors when conditions allow. [36]
Bearish arguments
- Execution risk on copper: Production has already disappointed for several years, guidance has been cut again for 2026, and some flagship assets (e.g. Collahuasi) face operational and water‑supply challenges. [37]
- Political and ESG risk: Big projects in Argentina and Chile are exposed to policy swings, permitting risk and social opposition, while coal remains a lightning rod for ESG‑constrained investors and regulators. [38]
- Balance sheet and volatility: High leverage and a trading‑heavy earnings model mean results can be lumpy and sensitive to commodity price spikes, credit conditions and market disruptions. [39]
- Recent share price strength: After a double‑digit rally in a short period and a 25% move over three months, some analysts argue that upside is now more modest unless copper prices or production significantly beat expectations. [40]
For investors, GLEN remains a high‑beta play on both copper and coal, with a management team now visibly trying to convince the market it can close the gap between long‑term project quality and recent operational performance.
What to watch next
Key signposts for Glencore shareholders and watchers after 4 December 2025 include:
- 2025 full‑year results and 2026 guidance detail, which will show how much of the cost‑saving and restructuring programme is flowing through. [41]
- Progress on Sudbury JV studies, the Codelco smelter pre‑feasibility, and final approvals around Alumbrera/MARA — all critical to the medium‑term copper ramp. [42]
- The outcome of Anglo–Teck shareholder votes and any subsequent moves to combine Chilean assets, which could reshape Glencore’s position in one of the world’s most important copper districts. [43]
- The trajectory of coal prices and demand, given how much free cash flow still comes from that side of the business. [44]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.glencore.com, 6. www.glencore.com, 7. www.mining.com, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.theguardian.com, 10. www.ft.com, 11. www.glencore.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.mining.com, 14. www.mining.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.mining.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.mining.com, 20. www.mining.com, 21. www.glencore.com, 22. fintel.io, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.theguardian.com, 25. www.theguardian.com, 26. www.ft.com, 27. www.theguardian.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.fool.co.uk, 30. simplywall.st, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. finance.yahoo.com, 33. www.mining.com, 34. www.glencore.com, 35. www.ft.com, 36. www.glencore.com, 37. www.glencore.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.fool.co.uk, 41. www.ft.com, 42. www.mining.com, 43. www.mining.com, 44. www.reuters.com
