NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock on December 4, 2025: AI Server Breakthrough, Export Control Win and 2026 Outlook

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the final weeks of 2025 as the undisputed AI chip leader, but the story around its stock has become more complex. After a sharp November pullback from all‑time highs, investors today are weighing record earnings, a fresh Washington lobbying victory, new AI server performance data and intensifying competition from Google and AMD.

As of midday on December 4, 2025, NVIDIA shares are trading around $180, roughly 20% below their record near $212 earlier in the autumn but still up strongly year to date. MarketBeat’s forecast page pegs the “current price” used by Wall Street analysts at $179.59. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at today’s key news, forecasts and analyses on NVIDIA stock, suitable for Google News and Discover.

1. NVIDIA Stock Price Snapshot — December 4, 2025

• Price: About $180 per share, with modest losses today after a volatile few weeks. ^[2]
• Drawdown from peak: TechStock² notes a 20% correction from the all‑time high around $212 reached earlier this year, following an 11–13% slide in November. TechStock²
• Valuation:
  • Trailing P/E is around 44x based on a ~$179.59 share price and ~$4.06–4.03 in trailing 12‑month EPS. ^[3]
  • Several data providers put the forward P/E in the low‑ to mid‑20s, around 23–24x forward earnings. ^[4]
  • MarketWatch highlights that NVIDIA’s current forward multiple is near its lowest valuation band of the last five years, and even trades at a roughly 40% discount to Broadcom on some metrics. ^[5]

In other words: the stock is still expensive in absolute terms, but cheaper than it has been for much of the AI boom, which is why some analysts argue the recent pullback may have restored upside.

2. Today’s Big Headlines for NVIDIA (December 3–4, 2025)

2.1 New AI server data: 10x performance for cutting‑edge models

On December 3, NVIDIA published new benchmark data showing that its latest AI server, which packs 72 of its top chips into a single system, can deliver up to a 10× performance boost for modern “mixture‑of‑experts” (MoE) AI models during inference (serving real‑time user requests). ^[6]

Key points from Reuters and related coverage: ^[7]

• The tests included China’s Moonshot AI Kimi K2 Thinking model and models from DeepSeek, both high‑profile MoE systems.
• NVIDIA’s data attribute the gains to:
  • The sheer number of GPUs per server (72 in one box), and
  • Very fast interconnects between chips.
• The focus is inference, where NVIDIA faces stronger competition than in training from AMD and Cerebras.
• AMD is working on a similar multi‑chip AI server expected to arrive in 2026.

Why this matters for the stock:

• It reinforces NVIDIA’s message that its hardware remains critical even as model architectures evolve toward more efficient MoE designs that can, in theory, train on fewer GPUs.
• It helps counter the narrative that efficient open‑source models could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA hardware.

2.2 Washington win: Congress drops the GAIN AI export‑control proposal

The other major development for NVDA today is political rather than technical.

Multiple reports (Bloomberg, Tom’s Hardware, TipRanks and others) confirm that U.S. lawmakers removed the “GAIN AI Act” from must‑pass defense legislation, handing NVIDIA a significant lobbying victory. ^[8]

• The GAIN AI Act would have required NVIDIA, AMD and peers to give U.S. customers first priority on their most advanced AI chips before selling them to China and other “adversarial” countries.
• By keeping the measure out of the defense authorization bill, Congress avoided adding a new layer of export restrictions on NVIDIA’s AI business, at least for now. ^[9]
• Tom’s Hardware notes that while this is a clear win for NVIDIA’s export flexibility, other bills are still in the works, so policy risk has been reduced, not removed. ^[10]

For investors, this reduces the near‑term risk of a sudden hit to NVIDIA’s international revenue, especially from non‑Chinese foreign buyers who could have been de‑prioritized under the shelved proposal.

2.3 Jensen Huang’s D.C. tour and Trump meeting

The export‑control headlines are closely linked to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Washington this week:

• Reuters reports that President Donald Trump praised Huang after a meeting where they discussed export controls on advanced AI chips and sales to China. ^[11]
• The Associated Press and ABC News describe Huang’s closed‑door meetings with Republican senators, where he argued that excessive AI export controls could undermine U.S. competitiveness even as he voiced support for sensible restrictions. ^[12]

This visibility underscores:

• How central NVIDIA has become to U.S. AI and national‑security policy, and
• Why the company is investing heavily in lobbying to shape export rules.

2.4 Ongoing China antitrust probe

On the geopolitical front, clouds remain:

• In September, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said a preliminary investigation found that NVIDIA violated conditions tied to its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox, alleging non‑compliance with antimonopoly commitments. ^[13]
• Regulators have not yet announced penalties but pledged to conduct a further investigation.

The probe adds another layer of uncertainty on top of U.S. export controls, particularly given NVIDIA’s historically large China business and broader U.S.–China tech tensions.

3. Fundamentals Check: Record Q3 FY26 and AI Demand

Despite share‑price volatility, NVIDIA’s underlying business remains exceptionally strong.

From NVIDIA’s own Q3 FY26 earnings release for the quarter ended October 26, 2025: ^[14]

• Total revenue: $57.0 billion
  • Up 22% quarter‑over‑quarter
  • Up 62% year‑over‑year
• Data Center revenue: $51.2 billion
  • About 90% of total sales
  • Up 25% QoQ and 66% YoY
• GAAP & non‑GAAP EPS:$1.30 per diluted share, up roughly 60–67% from a year earlier.
• Gross margins: Around 73–75%, with management guiding for mid‑70s going forward.
• Q4 FY26 guidance:
  • Revenue of $65.0 billion ±2%, well ahead of prior consensus (~$61.7 billion). ^[15]

NVIDIA is also returning cash aggressively:

• In the first nine months of FY26, the company returned $37 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, with $62.2 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization. ^[16]
• It declared a $0.01 per‑share quarterly dividend, payable on December 26, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 4, 2025 (today). ^[17]

Customer concentration and “circular AI” concerns

Not everything in the earnings report was comforting:

• Reuters points out that four customers accounted for 61% of NVIDIA’s revenue in the latest quarter, up from 56% in Q2. ^[18]
• NVIDIA has also signed $26 billion of contracts to rent back its own chips from cloud providers, more than double the prior quarter, and has invested heavily in AI companies that are also major customers. ^[19]

Some analysts worry this points to a “circular economy” in AI, where hyperscalers and chip suppliers finance one another’s growth and extend asset lives to keep earnings elevated—raising questions about sustainability if AI demand ever slows.

4. Wall Street’s View: Price Targets & Ratings

Despite volatility and mounting questions, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on NVIDIA.

4.1 12‑month price targets

Across major tracking services:

• MarketBeat:
  • 54 analysts covered; consensus rating “Buy”
  • Average 12‑month target: $258.65
  • High: $352.00
  • Low: $205.00
  • Implied upside: ~44% from ~$179.59. ^[20]
• StockAnalysis:
  • 39 analysts
  • Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
  • Average target: $248.64, implying ~38% upside
  • Range: $100 to $352. ^[21]
• TipRanks:
  • 41 analysts in the last three months
  • Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” (39 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell)
  • Average target: $258.10, with high $352, low $200, and about 43% upside vs. last price of $179.92. ^[22]
• 24/7 Wall St:
  • Cites a consensus one‑year target of $250.66 and notes that 60 of 64 analysts rate NVIDIA a Buy, including 11 “Strong Buy” ratings. ^[23]

Put together, most formal forecasts cluster around $245–260 over the next 12 months, with bulls looking up to $350+ and only a handful of cautious or bearish voices.

4.2 Recent upgrade: Morgan Stanley to $250

A widely cited catalyst today is a new Morgan Stanley note:

• Analyst Joseph Moore raised his price target from $235 to $250, reaffirming an Overweight/Buy rating. ^[24]
• The call implies roughly 38–39% upside from current levels. ^[25]
• Moore argues that:
  • Fears about competition from Google’s TPUs or AMD are “overstated”.
  • Market checks show NVIDIA still holds 70–95% share in AI accelerators and data‑center GPUs. ^[26]
  • NVIDIA’s advantage lies not just in chips, but in its full stack — performance, mature CUDA software, and speed of deployment.

4.3 2026 forecasts

Looking beyond the next 12 months, 2026‑focused forecasts are more conservative:

• A 2026 forecast roundup from BlockchainReporter notes:
  • NVIDIA trades around $180 in early December 2025.
  • Analysts’ 2026 targets cluster around $204 on average, with bullish cases near $307 and cautious scenarios in the $170–$200 range. ^[27]

That implies more modest upside when looking out to calendar‑year 2026 than the near‑term 12‑month targets, reflecting both optimism and real uncertainty about how long current AI spending can grow at this pace.

5. Is NVIDIA in an AI Bubble? Current Analyses

Opinions diverge sharply here.

5.1 The “no near‑term bubble” camp

• Morningstar recently raised its NVIDIA fair value estimate from $225 to $240, citing stronger near‑term revenue expectations and continuing dominance as an AI infrastructure supplier, and explicitly stating there are “no signs of a near‑term AI bubble” in the fundamentals. ^[28]
• A separate Morningstar note characterized NVIDIA as about fairly valued at prior levels, suggesting neither extreme bargain nor obvious bubble. ^[29]
• A Seeking Alpha upgrade piece argues that at roughly 24x forward earnings after the recent sell‑off, with 62% YoY revenue growth and strong momentum in data‑center AI, the stock does not resemble a classic bubble and looks attractive again to growth investors. ^[30]
• Reuters’ analysis of Q3 results emphasized that NVIDIA’s 62% revenue growth and $65B Q4 guidance have helped calm “AI bubble jitters,” at least temporarily. ^[31]

5.2 The “this could unwind” camp

On the other side:

• Another cluster of commentators (including some Seeking Alpha and TipRanks‑tracked analysts) argue that NVIDIA is still a “sell” at these levels, citing:
  • Heavy customer concentration,
  • Very large chip rental and financing commitments, and
  • The risk that hyperscaler capex slows once the first wave of AI data‑center buildout is complete. ^[32]
• Bank of America strategists, in a broader market note, warn of a potential “AI air pocket” in 2026, where AI capex growth pauses just as consumer demand softens—posing a double risk for U.S. equities led by mega‑cap tech. ^[33]
• BlackRock similarly expects AI to remain a dominant theme in 2026 but highlights dangers from crowded positioning and high leverage, pointing to the sharp November tech sell‑off as a preview of how violent corrections can be. ^[34]

Together, these views paint a picture of a fundamentally strong company priced for very high expectations, where even small disappointments in AI spending could trigger big swings.

6. Competitive Pressure: Google, AMD and Custom Silicon

NVIDIA’s moat remains wide, but the competitive narrative has shifted noticeably over the past few weeks.

6.1 Google TPUs and hyperscale self‑sufficiency

A wave of headlines has focused on Alphabet’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and their appeal to large customers:

• Articles from Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool and others argue that Alphabet’s latest AI processors pose a “serious threat” to NVIDIA’s dominance, especially as Google explores letting partners like Meta run TPUs directly inside their own data centers. ^[35]
• Reports that Meta is considering a multi‑billion‑dollar TPU deal with Google have fueled stock‑price volatility for NVIDIA, with notable share declines in late November. ^[36]

However, several analyses push back on the idea that TPUs will “kill” NVIDIA:

• Morningstar maintains its fair value estimates for both NVIDIA and AMD, despite reports about Meta’s TPU interest, suggesting TPUs will coexist rather than fully displace GPUs. ^[37]
• Some analysts and industry commentators argue that TPUs’ role will likely remain concentrated in Google‑centric and a few large‑partner workloads, while NVIDIA’s general‑purpose GPUs and software ecosystem remain the default choice for most AI work. ^[38]

6.2 AMD and other rivals

• AMD is developing its own multi‑chip AI servers, aiming to rival NVIDIA’s 72‑GPU system sometime in 2026. ^[39]
• Bank and broker notes continue to highlight AMD as a key challenger, especially if customers balk at NVIDIA’s premium pricing or if regulators push for more competition.

Still, NVIDIA’s latest 10x server performance data and 70–95% market share estimates in AI accelerators, as cited by Morgan Stanley, show that no competitor has yet broken its core data‑center dominance. ^[40]

7. Regulatory & Political Risk

NVIDIA’s stock is now tightly linked to policy news:

• Export controls:
  • U.S. rules already bar sales of NVIDIA’s most advanced chips to China, forcing the company to design “export‑compliant” products like H20 and to seek growth in regions like the Middle East. ^[41]
  • The defeat of the GAIN AI Act reduces immediate risk of additional U.S. export constraints, but parallel proposals and ongoing debate in Congress mean this story is far from over. ^[42]
• China antitrust probe:
  • China’s antimonopoly regulator says NVIDIA violated conditions tied to the Mellanox acquisition, and further investigation is underway; no penalties have yet been announced. ^[43]
• Political scrutiny:
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly criticized Huang’s closed‑door meetings on Capitol Hill and urged the administration not to greenlight certain chip sales to China, underscoring bipartisan concerns about NVIDIA’s influence. ^[44]

For investors, this means policy risk is structural: NVIDIA’s central role in AI makes it a constant focus of U.S.–China tech tensions and domestic political debate.

8. Bull Case vs. Bear Case for NVDA (as of December 4, 2025)

Bull case highlights

1. Explosive AI demand and leadership
   • Record revenue growth (62% YoY) and Q4 guidance of $65B show that AI infrastructure spending is still ramping, not plateauing. ^[45]
   • NVIDIA continues to launch higher‑performance platforms (Blackwell, Rubin, the new 72‑GPU server) that expand its performance and efficiency lead. ^[46]
2. Ecosystem and software moat
   • CUDA, cuDNN, and NVIDIA’s broader software stack are deeply embedded across hyperscalers, startups and enterprises, making switching costly and risky. ^[47]
3. Strong analyst support
   • The overwhelming majority of analysts rate NVDA a Buy or Strong Buy, with average 12‑month targets 35–45% above today’s price. ^[48]
4. Valuation now “high but not insane”
   • After the correction, forward P/E in the mid‑20s is well below levels seen earlier in the AI boom, while many peers still trade on richer multiples. ^[49]
5. Capital returns and balance sheet
   • Tens of billions in buybacks, robust margins and large free cash flow give NVIDIA significant room to continue returning capital while investing in next‑generation platforms. ^[50]

Bear case & key risks

1. Dependence on hyperscaler capex
   • A handful of mega‑cap cloud customers drive most of NVIDIA’s data‑center revenue, and four customers now account for 61% of total sales. Any slowdown, budget cut or shift to in‑house silicon could hit results hard. ^[51]
2. Policy & geopolitical uncertainty
   • Future export rules, national‑security concerns, and China’s antimonopoly investigation all pose ongoing risks that are hard to model and could change suddenly. ^[52]
3. Competition from TPUs, AMD and ASICs
   • While NVIDIA leads today, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others are investing heavily in custom AI chips, which may gradually chip away at NVIDIA’s share or pricing power in some workloads. ^[53]
4. “Circular AI” financing and concentration risk
   • Heavy use of chip‑rental agreements, investments in key AI customers and dependence on a small number of buyers raise questions about how sustainable current growth and margins are if capital markets or AI enthusiasm cool. ^[54]
5. Macro and AI‑boom volatility
   • Major asset managers like BlackRock and strategists at Bank of America warn that AI‑linked equities could see sharp air pockets and corrections even if the long‑term story remains intact. ^[55]

9. What to Watch Next

For readers tracking NVDA after today’s news, key upcoming catalysts include:

1. Q4 FY26 earnings (expected February 2026)
   • Can NVIDIA hit or beat its $65B revenue guidance and maintain mid‑70s gross margins? ^[56]
2. AI server and Blackwell adoption
   • Customer commentary and benchmarks around the 72‑GPU server and broader Blackwell/Rubin ramp will show whether NVIDIA can stay comfortably ahead of AMD and TPUs on real‑world workloads. ^[57]
3. Regulatory developments
   • Any new U.S. bills targeting AI chips or fresh moves by Chinese regulators on the Mellanox case could materially sway sentiment. ^[58]
4. Hyperscaler strategies
   • Concrete adoption data for Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft’s in‑house chips will be watched closely as a barometer of how quickly custom silicon might erode GPU share at the margin. ^[59]
5. Macro AI spending signals
   • Any signs of an AI‑capex “air pocket” or, conversely, renewed acceleration will likely move NVIDIA’s stock disproportionately, given its role as the flagship AI trade. ^[60]

Important note

This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. NVIDIA stock is volatile and influenced by company‑specific, macroeconomic, and policy risks. Always consider your own objectives and risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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