Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is back in the market spotlight. As of early December 2025, the restaurant‑software specialist is trading in the mid‑$30s per share — around $35 — implying a market capitalization of roughly $20–21 billion and firmly placing it in large‑cap territory. [1]
A fresh wave of analyst upgrades, strong (if not flawless) Q3 2025 results, and a growing slate of AI‑powered products and marquee partnerships are all feeding into a bullish narrative around Toast stock, even as valuation remains demanding and competition intense.
Toast stock today: price, valuation and trading range
Recent market data show Toast shares around $35.17 with a market cap of about $20.68 billion. [2] Over the past year, the stock has traded roughly between $28 and $50, according to institutional coverage, underlining how volatile sentiment around high‑growth fintech and SaaS names has been in 2025. [3]
Key valuation markers:
- Market cap: ≈$20.7 billion
- Trailing P/E: in the high‑70s to low‑80s, depending on the source and exact timing of the quote [4]
- Price/sales (ttm): around the mid‑3s, reflecting strong revenue scale but also rich expectations for future growth [5]
This combination — sizeable revenue base, rapid growth and premium multiples — is exactly why Wall Street’s view on Toast has outsized impact on the day‑to‑day share price.
Fresh analyst calls: JPMorgan upgrade plus UBS and BNP Paribas support
JPMorgan turns more bullish on December 4
On December 4, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded Toast from Neutral to Overweight, assigning a $43 price target. [6]
Benzinga’s recap notes that analyst Tien‑Tsin Huang kept the $43 target while shifting the rating to Overweight, with Toast shares having closed the prior session at $35.17, implying more than 20% upside from that level. [7]
A broader analyst roundup from 24/7 Wall St on the same day highlights the JPMorgan move among the top research calls of Thursday’s session, underscoring how central Toast has become in the fintech and restaurant‑tech conversation. [8]
UBS maintains its Buy rating and $50 target
Also on December 4, UBS reiterated a Buy rating on Toast with a $50 price target, reaffirming a previously bullish stance rather than initiating a new one. [9]
That target implies more than 40% upside versus a ~$35 share price, and UBS’s report emphasizes Toast’s strong market position, growth potential, and the durability of its recurring‑revenue model. [10]
BNP Paribas Exane upgrade kicks off the week
These moves follow a December 1 upgrade from BNP Paribas Exane, which raised Toast from Neutral to Outperform with a $40 price target. Analyst Thomas Poutrieux framed the call as a vote of confidence in Toast’s growth outlook and improving fundamentals. [11]
Putting it together: consensus targets and rating
Across the analyst community:
- 22 analysts covering Toast currently assign a consensus rating of “Buy”.
- The average 12‑month price target sits around $45.23, implying roughly 29% upside versus a ~$35.17 share price. [12]
- Consensus target range runs from $29 on the low end to about $60 at the high end. [13]
A separate synthesis from MarketMinute and MarketBeat pegs the “steady” consensus fair‑value region near $45–47 per share, with Simply Wall St’s fair‑value estimate at $47.35, characterizing Toast as roughly 25–30% undervalued relative to recent prices. [14]
The headline takeaway: Wall Street as a group still sees double‑digit to high‑double‑digit upside, but price targets cluster in the mid‑$40s rather than the euphoric levels of early post‑IPO trading.
Toast earnings: Q3 2025 highlights and guidance
Toast’s recent fundamentals are dominated by its Q3 2025 report, released on November 4.
Growth metrics
From the company’s own release: [15]
- Annualized recurring run‑rate (ARR): grew 30% year over year to over $2.0 billion as of September 30, 2025.
- Total locations: increased 23% YoY to approximately 156,000 restaurants.
- Gross Payment Volume (GPV): rose 24% YoY to $51.5 billion.
- Total revenue: climbed to $1.63 billion, up from $1.31 billion a year earlier (≈25% growth).
- GAAP net income:$105 million, nearly double the $56 million from Q3 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA:$176 million, up from $113 million a year earlier.
- Free cash flow:$153 million, versus $97 million in Q3 2024.
In short: Toast is still in a high‑growth phase, but now with meaningful profitability and cash generation, a shift that matters enormously for how analysts value the stock.
The EPS “beat or miss” debate
Where things get messy is earnings per share (EPS) versus expectations:
- Investing.com and several narrative‑driven summaries describe Q3 as a negative EPS surprise, citing $0.16 GAAP EPS vs. $0.24 consensus, a roughly 33% miss. [16]
- By contrast, some data feeds (including Seeking Alpha’s headline roundup) present Q3 as a beat, stating GAAP EPS of $0.16 exceeded consensus by about $0.03, with revenue roughly $40 million above estimates. [17]
This discrepancy most likely reflects differences in which consensus set is used (GAAP vs. adjusted, inclusion/exclusion of stock‑based compensation, or timing of estimate updates). What’s not in dispute is that:
- Revenue clearly beat expectations (around $1.63B vs. ~ $1.58B), and
- The market’s reaction quickly leaned positive, with reports of the stock jumping on the day as investors focused on growth, ARR scale and cash flow rather than the EPS noise. [18]
Upgraded 2025 and Q4 guidance
Toast also raised guidance in that Q3 report: [19]
- Q4 2025 outlook
- Non‑GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit: $480–490 million (≈22–25% YoY growth).
- Adjusted EBITDA: $140–150 million.
- Full‑year 2025 outlook
- Non‑GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit: $1.865–1.875 billion, about 32% growth vs. 2024 and higher than prior guidance.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $610–620 million, up from a previous range of $565–585 million.
Guidance like this — 30%+ ARR growth, expanding margins, rising cash flow — is the backdrop that makes the recent cluster of upgrades from JPMorgan, UBS and BNP Paribas easier to justify.
AI, Uber and major restaurant chains: the growth narrative behind TOST
Toast is no longer “just” a point‑of‑sale vendor. It is positioning itself as a full‑stack operating system for restaurants, combining SaaS software, payments, and data‑driven tools. [20]
Toast IQ and AI‑driven tools
In 2025, Toast expanded its Toast IQ “intelligence ecosystem” with a conversational AI assistant designed to act as an operator’s digital right hand. The tool offers: [21]
- Natural‑language queries about restaurant performance
- Personalized recommendations for pricing, staffing and operations
- The ability to take actions (like menu changes or promotions) inside the same interface
Toast is also collaborating with The Coca‑Cola Company on an AI‑powered feature within Toast IQ aimed at improving beverage sales — a direct example of AI tied to measurable revenue impact. [22]
Analysts like Simply Wall St explicitly frame the BNP Paribas Exane upgrade in the context of this AI‑driven strategy and margin improvement, arguing that Toast’s combination of recurring revenue and expanding AI capabilities underpins their fair‑value estimate of $47.35. [23]
Big partnerships: Uber, Nordstrom, TGI Fridays, everbowl
Recent business highlights from Toast’s Q3 disclosures and subsequent news flow include: [24]
- A multi‑year global partnership with Uber that deepens integration between Toast and Uber’s delivery platforms in the U.S. and Canada, aimed at streamlining digital orders and boosting restaurant sales.
- Large‑scale enterprise wins such as Nordstrom, which is rolling out Toast across nearly 200 dining locations in about 100 stores, covering everything from coffee bars to full‑service restaurants.
- A broad implementation at TGI Fridays® across U.S. locations, further validating Toast at the high‑volume casual‑dining end of the market.
- A deal to power 100+ locations at superfood chain everbowl™, announced in mid‑November, extending Toast’s presence in fast‑casual concepts. [25]
These partnerships matter because they stack recurring SaaS and payments revenue on top of each new location, deepening Toast’s moat and making churn less likely once a chain standardizes on its platform.
Institutional investors are building positions, even as some trim
Multiple recent 13F‑driven headlines suggest strong institutional interest in Toast, though not uniformly bullish.
Big asset managers buying
- HSBC Holdings PLC increased its stake by 17% in Q2, lifting its position to 208,063 shares valued at about $9.22 million at the time of the filing. [26]
- Schroder Investment Management Group went much further, boosting its holdings by approximately 1,671% to 430,180 shares, around 0.08% of Toast’s equity, worth roughly $19 million. [27]
MarketBeat’s summaries of institutional ownership indicate that about 82.9% of Toast’s shares are held by institutions, a notably high level of professional ownership for a still‑young public company. [28]
Others taking profits
Not all institutions are ramping exposure:
- Edmond de Rothschild Holding S.A. reduced its stake by 7.1% in Q2, selling over 44,000 shares but still holding around 574,000 shares valued at roughly $25 million. [29]
Meanwhile, insiders — including the CFO and company president — have sold a relatively small number of shares (around 49,759 shares over three months, worth about $1.77 million). Corporate insiders still own about 12.14% of the company, a sizeable alignment of incentives even after sales. [30]
The overall picture: institutions are heavily involved and net buyers on balance, while insiders are trimming modest amounts — consistent with a mature growth story rather than a founder‑led small cap.
Toast stock forecast: what Wall Street expects from here
Price targets and upside potential
Bringing together multiple sources:
- Average 12‑month price target: ≈ $45–47 per share, implying ~25–35% upside from a mid‑$30s price. [31]
- High target: up to $60 from the most optimistic analysts. [32]
- Recent named targets:
- JPMorgan: $43, Overweight (Dec 4). [33]
- BNP Paribas Exane: $40, Outperform (Dec 1). [34]
- UBS: $50, Buy (Dec 4; previously cut from $55 on Nov 5). [35]
- RBC: $45, Sector Perform. [36]
- Morgan Stanley: $56, Overweight, with “Top Pick” designation. [37]
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: $42, Market Perform after reducing from $50. [38]
Analyst roundups (from MarketBeat, MarketMinute and others) generally describe the stock’s consensus rating as “Moderate Buy” to full “Buy”, with roughly twice as many Buy/Strong Buy ratings as Hold, and very few outright Sells. [39]
Growth expectations
Narratives compiled by MarketMinute and research platforms point to: [40]
- High‑teens to low‑20s annual revenue growth over the next few years, with Toast itself targeting 20%+ growth in 2026.
- High‑20s earnings growth as operating leverage kicks in and adjusted EBITDA expands.
- A long‑term ambition to push ARR towards $10 billion and achieve EBITDA margins north of 40%, well above today’s levels.
Simply Wall St’s valuation work suggests that, under optimistic but not unrealistic assumptions about growth and margins, Toast could indeed be worth around the high‑$40s per share. But they also stress that the stock trades at multiples far above industry averages, making it sensitive to any disappointment. [41]
Key risks for TOST despite bullish ratings
Even as upgrades pile up, several risks temper the bull case.
Rich valuation and multiple compression
Toast currently trades at 70–80x earnings and a premium to peers on most valuation metrics. [42] Analyst narratives explicitly warn that:
- If growth slows even modestly,
- Or if margins stall before reaching management’s long‑term targets,
the stock could be vulnerable to sharp multiple compression, particularly in a market that has already repriced many high‑growth SaaS names.
Competitive pressure
MarketMinute’s deep dive sketches a competitive field that includes: [43]
- Block’s Square (SQ) in small business and omnichannel payments
- Lightspeed, Clover, and NCR Aloha across various restaurant segments
- A host of niche restaurant and hospitality platforms
Toast’s edge lies in offering a restaurant‑only, deeply integrated platform — but rivals are also investing heavily in AI, automation, and better pricing. The risk is that pricing pressure or customer churn could emerge if competitors aggressively undercut or match Toast’s feature set.
Macro and regulatory concerns
- Restaurant spending is cyclical; a downturn in consumer discretionary income could slow new location additions and transaction volumes. [44]
- Toast’s fintech and payments revenues could face regulatory scrutiny around fees, data usage, and consumer protection, especially as its scale grows. [45]
These are medium‑term risks rather than immediate crises, but they help explain why some firms (KBW, RBC) sit at Market Perform or Sector Perform despite acknowledging Toast’s strong execution.
Bottom line: a high‑growth platform stock at a pivotal moment
As of December 4, 2025, Toast stock sits at an interesting intersection:
- Fundamentals: Rapid ARR, revenue and location growth; improving profitability; strong free cash flow; upgraded guidance. [46]
- Sentiment: A cluster of upgrades — JPMorgan to Overweight, BNP Paribas Exane to Outperform, UBS reiterating Buy — plus a consensus Buy rating and sizable upside embedded in average price targets. [47]
- Narrative: AI‑enabled tools (Toast IQ), blue‑chip partnerships (Uber, Nordstrom, TGI Fridays, everbowl) and strong institutional sponsorship all reinforce the view of Toast as a category leader in restaurant technology. [48]
- Risk: A valuation that assumes continued high‑teens or better growth and sustained margin expansion, with limited room for execution missteps or macro shocks. [49]
For investors and market watchers, Toast in late 2025 is neither a neglected deep value play nor a speculative pre‑profit story. It is a scaled, cash‑generating software and fintech business with real competitive advantages — priced in a way that demands ongoing excellence.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. 247wallst.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. 247wallst.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. markets.financialcontent.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. simplywall.st, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.stocktitan.net, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. 247wallst.com, 34. www.gurufocus.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. www.marketscreener.com, 37. www.marketscreener.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. markets.financialcontent.com, 40. markets.financialcontent.com, 41. simplywall.st, 42. simplywall.st, 43. markets.financialcontent.com, 44. markets.financialcontent.com, 45. markets.financialcontent.com, 46. www.businesswire.com, 47. www.gurufocus.com, 48. www.businesswire.com, 49. simplywall.st
