Published: December 4, 2025 — All figures and moves current as of U.S. trading on this date.
Boeing Stock Snapshot: Price, Performance and Volatility
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is trading around $202–203 per share on December 4, 2025, down roughly 1–1.5% on the day and valuing the company at about $154 billion. Over the past 12 months, the stock has traded between approximately $129 and $243, highlighting how volatile sentiment around the planemaker remains. [1]
Even after today’s pullback, BA is still up in the mid-teens to low‑20% range year-to-date, depending on the starting point used. Recent gains have been powered by upbeat guidance on 2026 free cash flow and higher jet deliveries, but tempered by new regulatory conditions on a critical supplier acquisition and continuing program delays. [2]
Big News #1: FTC Clears Spirit AeroSystems Deal — With Strings Attached
The most consequential headline for Boeing this week is regulatory, not operational.
On December 3, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said Boeing may proceed with its $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems — the key fuselage and structures supplier for the 737 family — but only if Boeing and Spirit carry out a set of mandatory divestitures. [3]
Key points of the FTC’s conditional approval:
- Deal structure and value
- Boeing will re‑acquire most of Spirit’s operations, including the Wichita site that builds 737 fuselages.
- Airbus will take over several Spirit facilities in North Carolina and Belfast (Northern Ireland) as part of the broader transaction, lifting the total deal value to about $8.3 billion. [4]
- Spirit’s Subang, Malaysia plant, which supplies both Airbus and Boeing, must be sold to Composites Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM). [5]
- Competition and oversight
- Regulators want to prevent Boeing from gaining an unfair chokehold over Airbus’s supply chain and over future U.S. defense aircraft competitions. [6]
- Spirit must continue supplying Boeing’s competitors on upcoming military programs, including those where Boeing is bidding. [7]
- The order calls for two independent monitors — one reporting to the FTC and one to the Pentagon — to oversee compliance. [8]
- Financial and quality backdrop
- Spirit, spun out of Boeing in 2005, has been “financially struggling” and “problem‑plagued,” contributing to delays on Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A350 and A220 programs. [9]
- Belfast’s wing plant posted roughly $670 million in losses in 2024, so Airbus will receive about $439 million in cash to offset the losses it is inheriting. [10]
Boeing shares fell about 3% on the FTC headline, while Spirit jumped around 3.5%, reflecting the market’s view that the conditions weigh more heavily on Boeing’s strategic flexibility than on Spirit’s survival. [11]
Why it matters for BA stock
For investors, the Spirit deal is both a risk‑mitigation move and a regulatory wild card:
- On the positive side, regaining control over 737 fuselage production could help Boeing stabilize quality and improve schedule reliability on its most important program. [12]
- On the negative side, mandatory divestitures, oversight and ongoing quality remediation at Spirit add execution risk and may limit some of the cost‑synergy upside that bulls were counting on.
Big News #2: CFO Malave’s 2026 Cash-Flow Pivot and Delivery Ramp
Just one day earlier, Boeing’s new CFO Jay Malave delivered a very different sort of headline at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference.
According to Reuters, Malave told investors that Boeing expects: [13]
- Negative free cash flow of about $2 billion in 2025, as the company digests program costs and restructuring.
- A swing to positive free cash flow in 2026, in the “low single-digit billions” of dollars, marking the first positive year since 2023.
- Higher deliveries of both 737 and 787 jets in 2026, supported by improved production stability and a new 787 facility in South Carolina.
- Better performance from the Defense, Space & Security division, contributing to margin expansion.
Boeing has also re‑affirmed a longer‑term goal of roughly $10 billion in annual free cash flow, though Malave stopped short of tying that to a specific year. [14]
The guidance triggered a sharp reaction:
- BA shares surged about 10% on December 2, the strongest single‑day performance in the Dow, after the delivery and cash‑flow forecast hit the tape. [15]
- A wave of commentary framed the move as a potential turning point after more than five years of crises linked to the 737 MAX grounding, the pandemic, supply-chain disruptions and new safety rules. [16]
Under the Hood: Q3 2025 Results and the 777X Reset
Before this week’s guidance rally, investors were still digesting third‑quarter 2025 results, which showed strong top‑line growth but another sizable loss.
From Boeing’s Q3 press release and subsequent coverage: [17]
- Revenue:
- Q3 2025 revenue rose 30% year‑on‑year to $23.27 billion.
- Commercial Airplanes revenue jumped 49% to $11.09 billion, with 160 jet deliveries, the highest quarterly figure since 2018. [18]
- Profitability:
- Boeing posted a GAAP net loss of $5.34 billion, or ($7.14) per share.
- Core loss per share (non‑GAAP) was ($7.47), significantly worse than consensus estimates around a $5 per‑share loss. [19]
- 777X charge and schedule:
- Cash flow and backlog:
777X: Delayed by New Certification Rules
The 777X story is now primarily about regulatory drag, not engineering failure.
In an interview with aviation outlet The Engine Cowl, Malave explained that new certification requirements introduced after the 737 MAX accidents have been a “learning process” for both Boeing and the FAA, contributing to cascading delays. [24]
Key 777X datapoints:
- Boeing received Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) Phase 3 approval in November, covering major systems like avionics, environmental controls and the auxiliary power unit. [25]
- Management insists there are no fundamental aircraft or engine issues; the bottleneck is demonstrating full compliance with the new, stricter certification regime. [26]
- The $4.9 billion 777X charge will be recognized over many years as jets are delivered, spreading the hit into the late 2020s and early 2030s rather than concentrating it in the near term. [27]
- Due to delays and accounting reclassifications, Boeing has removed 33 777X orders from its active backlog, leaving 473 777X jets still counted as firm orders at the end of October. [28]
For BA shareholders, 777X is thus a double‑edged sword: a potentially lucrative widebody with a large installed customer base, but one that is already absorbing billions in charges and remains years from meaningful cash generation.
Production Reality: 737 MAX, 787 and the Road to Higher Output
The production ramp is central to Boeing’s recovery and to the CFO’s 2026 cash‑flow story.
A recent analysis from Forecast International’s Flight Plan blog shows that in November 2025 Boeing: [29]
- Produced 45 aircraft, including:
- 32 737 MAX jets
- 8 787 Dreamliners
- 3 777s
- 2 767s
- Was running the 737 MAX-line below its current targeted rate, with the 32 jets in November falling short of the 42‑per‑month rate that Boeing and the FAA jointly approved in October.
- Maintained 787 output in line with a 7–8 per‑month objective, with plans to reach 10 per month in 2026, although analysts caution that sustaining that rate will require several consecutive months of stable performance.
The same report underscores that Boeing ultimately aims to push 737 MAX production to about 52 aircraft per month, but expects to make increases in increments of no more than five aircraft with at least six months between each step, suggesting that the long‑term target likely won’t be reached until 2027–2028. [30]
Certification Overhang: 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10
While existing 737 MAX 8 and 9 variants are in service, the smaller MAX 7 and stretched MAX 10 remain uncertified, and that continues to weigh on sentiment.
- In Boeing’s Q3 earnings call transcript, management said it “anticipate[s] certification for the 737‑7 and the 737‑10 to happen in 2026.” [31]
- Aviation outlet The Air Current and FlightGlobal similarly report that certification, previously targeted for 2025, has slipped into 2026 due to an engine anti‑ice system redesign demanded by regulators. [32]
- Industry reporting suggests there are over 1,500 unfilled orders combined for the MAX 7 and MAX 10 — a major slice of Boeing’s narrowbody backlog and a key reason investors closely track their certification path. [33]
- Airline customers like WestJet still expect the MAX 10 to join fleets around late 2026, but stress they can substitute other MAX variants if delays persist. [34]
The certification timeline for these variants is thus both a catalyst and a risk: any acceleration could unlock deliveries and cash flow faster than expected, while further slippage would hit both revenue recognition and investor confidence.
Defense, Space & Security: Quiet but Important Strength
Behind the headline‑grabbing commercial programs, Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security (BDS) unit quietly delivered an impressive quarter.
According to Boeing’s filings and multiple industry reports: [35]
- Q3 2025 BDS revenue climbed 25% year‑on‑year to $6.9 billion, with operating margins improving to 1.7%, up from a deeply negative figure a year earlier.
- The segment’s backlog hit roughly $76 billion, with about 20% coming from international customers.
- BDS delivered 30 aircraft and two satellites in the quarter and secured major awards, including a U.S. Space Force contract and additional KC‑46A tanker orders. [36]
- A machinists’ strike at St. Louis‑area plants had an “immaterial” effect on Q3 results, although Boeing did record an additional $149 million loss on the KC‑46 program due to higher production costs following the 777X schedule change. [37]
For BA stock, the defense business doesn’t command the same multiple as commercial aviation, but it adds stability to cash flows and backlog and helps diversify away from civil demand cycles.
How Wall Street Now Sees BA: Ratings and Price Targets
Consensus view: “Moderate Buy” with mid‑teens upside
Across major analyst‑tracking platforms, Boeing is generally rated between a “Moderate Buy” and “Strong Buy”, with 12‑month targets clustered modestly above today’s price:
- MarketBeat
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Analyst mix: 27 analysts — 3 Strong Buys, 15 Buys, 4 Holds, 5 Sells
- Average 12‑month price target:$232.09, implying about 15% upside from ~$202. [38]
- StockAnalysis
- Labels BA a “Strong Buy” based on its analyst set, with an average target near $240.
- Aggregated forecasts show 2025 revenue around $90.7 billion (up ~36% YoY) and 2026 revenue near $100 billion, with EPS projected to move from –$9.67 in 2025 to +$2.15 in 2026 as the turnaround progresses. [39]
- Investing.com and other consensus trackers
- Show average price targets in the low‑ to mid‑$240s and consensus “Buy” ratings, generally implying high‑teens to low‑20% upside over the next year. [40]
Recent rating moves underscore the mixed yet improving sentiment:
- Zacks Research recently upgraded Boeing from “Strong Sell” to “Hold”, even as it highlighted the company’s large Q3 loss and volatile earnings profile. [41]
- Bernstein’s Douglas Harned remains one of the more optimistic voices, with a price target in the high‑$200s (around $270–$280), arguing that recent sell‑offs have been an overreaction and that the long‑term thesis remains intact. [42]
- On the cautious side, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with an “Underperform” rating and a $150 target, implying downside from current levels if execution falters. [43]
Valuation models: Is BA undervalued?
A detailed valuation note from Simply Wall St concludes that Boeing looks materially undervalued on a long‑term cash‑flow basis: [44]
- Its 10‑year discounted cash flow (DCF) model, using consensus forecasts, produces an intrinsic value of about $300 per share versus a market price near $202, implying roughly 33% upside in that framework.
- On a price‑to‑sales basis, Boeing currently trades around 1.9× sales, slightly below peers and the broader aerospace & defense industry, where multiples near 2.0–3.0× are common. Their “fair” P/S multiple for Boeing is estimated at about 2.07×, suggesting modest undervaluation even without assuming a full DCF re‑rating.
Of course, these models bake in the assumption that Boeing will hit aggressive delivery and margin targets and avoid new major setbacks — a key caveat for investors assessing whether that projected upside is realistic.
Key Risks Investors Are Watching
Despite the constructive tone from Wall Street, several material risks continue to shape BA’s risk/reward profile:
- Certification timelines
- Any further delays for 737 MAX 7/10 or 777X could push out cash flows, trigger new charges and strain customer relationships. [45]
- Execution on production ramps
- Boeing must prove it can lift 737 MAX output toward the low‑50s per month and 787 output toward 10 per month without repeating past quality lapses, all while integrating Spirit operations under regulatory scrutiny. [46]
- Integration and quality risk at Spirit
- Spirit has been directly linked to delays and quality issues on multiple Boeing and Airbus programs. Fixing this while meeting FTC conditions and maintaining supply to competitors is non‑trivial. [47]
- Debt and financial flexibility
- Boeing enters this phase with a heavier debt load than before the MAX crisis and pandemic, leaving less room for error if the recovery stumbles or macro conditions deteriorate. [48]
- Competitive pressure from Airbus
- Airbus still enjoys a strong lead in the single‑aisle market via its A321neo, even as it wrestles with its own fuselage quality and software issues and has trimmed its 2025 delivery target. [49]
What It All Means for Boeing Stock Right Now
As of December 4, 2025, the Boeing story looks like this:
- Short‑term
- BA is digesting a Q3 earnings miss and a 777X schedule reset, even as the stock reacts positively to 2026 cash‑flow guidance and higher delivery plans. [50]
- The Spirit AeroSystems decision has introduced fresh regulatory constraints and complexity, but also removed a major overhang on whether the deal would proceed at all. [51]
- Medium‑term (2026–2027)
- Valuation
- Consensus 12‑month price targets in the low‑ to mid‑$230s and $240s imply mid‑teens to low‑20% upside from current levels, while more optimistic DCF models suggest substantially more if everything goes right. [54]
- At the same time, a non‑trivial group of analysts still rate the stock “Sell” or “Underperform”, highlighting that this is far from a universally loved turnaround story. [55]
For investors following BA, the stock increasingly trades as a high‑beta recovery bet on:
- Resumption of large‑scale narrowbody and widebody deliveries,
- Successful integration and cleanup of Spirit’s operations, and
- Boeing’s ability to navigate an intense regulatory and competitive landscape without repeating past mistakes.
Important Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Boeing shares can be volatile, and any investment decision should be based on your individual objectives, risk tolerance and independent research, ideally in consultation with a licensed financial adviser.
References
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