Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is finishing 2025 looking more like a tech-powered platform than a traditional grocer — and its share price shows it.
After a powerful year‑end rally fueled by strong earnings, record holiday e‑commerce demand and an aggressive artificial intelligence strategy, Walmart stock is trading just below record highs and edging toward a $900+ billion market valuation. [1]
This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 4, 2025, to give a clear view of where Walmart stock stands now — and what might come next.
Note: All figures and opinions here are informational only and not personalized investment advice.
Walmart Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation
As of the U.S. session on December 4, 2025, Walmart shares are trading around $113–114, at approximately $113.82 at 14:30 UTC, down slightly from yesterday’s close.
On December 3, Walmart:
- Closed at $114.41,
- Logged its sixth straight day of gains, and
- Hit a new 52‑week high, outpacing Amazon and Costco on a strong tape, with volume of 24.3 million shares vs a 17.1 million 50‑day average. [2]
According to Simply Wall St data, Walmart’s key price stats now look roughly like this: [3]
- Current share price: ~$114
- 52‑week range: $79.81 – $114.89
- 1‑year share price gain: ~20%
- 3‑year share price gain: ~131%
- 5‑year share price gain: ~133%
- Beta: ~0.65 (lower volatility than the overall market)
MarketBeat’s latest profile pegs Walmart’s market cap around $913 billion, with: [4]
- P/E ratio: ≈ 40x
- PEG ratio: ≈ 5.1
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.39
That puts Walmart squarely in “expensive defensive” territory: a steady, low‑beta business now priced like a premium growth stock.
Why Walmart Stock Is Hitting New Highs
1. Strong Q3 FY26 Earnings and Raised Guidance
On November 20, 2025, Walmart reported Q3 FY26 (August–October) results that beat expectations and led management to raise full‑year guidance. [5]
Key numbers:
- Revenue: $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year‑over‑year, ahead of consensus. [6]
- U.S. comparable sales (ex‑fuel): +4.5%, beating estimates around 3.8%. [7]
- Global e‑commerce: +27%, with Walmart U.S. e‑commerce up 28% and Sam’s Club U.S. up 22%. [8]
- Advertising (Walmart Connect + international): +53% year‑over‑year. [9]
- Adjusted EPS:$0.62, above the ~$0.60 Wall Street expected. [10]
Management also raised full‑year FY26 guidance:
- Net sales growth: now 4.8–5.1% (up from 3.75–4.75%),
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58–2.63 (previously $2.52–2.62). [11]
Reuters noted that the quarter marked Walmart’s seventh consecutive quarter of U.S. e‑commerce growth above 20%, fueled by grocery delivery and rapid‑fulfillment services — including deliveries under three hours, which rose about 70%. [12]
The mix of steady comps, fast digital growth and higher‑margin ad revenue helps explain why investors are willing to pay such a rich multiple for Walmart today.
2. Winning With Higher‑Income Shoppers in a Stressed Economy
Both Reuters and AP highlight a key theme: while lower‑income consumers remain under significant pressure from inflation, tariffs and a slowing job market, Walmart is gaining share from middle‑ and upper‑income households, many earning over $100,000 a year. [13]
- Higher‑income shoppers are not just buying groceries; they’re driving growth in discretionary categories such as apparel, home goods and furniture. [14]
- This mirrors broader discount‑retail trends: Dollar Tree, for instance, also reported strong results as bargain‑seeking shoppers trade down. [15]
In a world where many retailers (Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s) have cut guidance, Walmart’s ability to pull in both budget and affluent customers stands out. [16]
3. AI, “Agentic Commerce” and Sparky
Walmart is aggressively positioning itself as an AI‑driven retailer, and that narrative is now front and center in analyst and media coverage.
Some of the most important developments in 2025:
- Sparky, Walmart’s GenAI shopping assistant
Launched earlier this year, Sparky is embedded in Walmart’s app and site. It:- Synthesizes customer reviews,
- Compares products, and
- Suggests gifts and bundles via natural‑language chat (e.g., “best laptop for an art student”). [17]
- OpenAI partnership & shopping via ChatGPT
In October, Walmart announced a partnership with OpenAI that lets customers shop Walmart directly inside ChatGPT using Instant Checkout — planning meals, restocking essentials and buying items via conversation instead of clicking through a website. [19] - Monetizing AI assistants with ads
Recent coverage shows Walmart testing “Sponsored Prompt” ads inside Sparky, where an AI‑generated answer can be paired with a click‑to‑buy placement, effectively turning conversational commerce into an ad product. [20] - Holiday surge powered by AI
Adobe Analytics notes that Black Friday 2025 U.S. online spending hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024, with AI shopping tools (including Walmart’s) driving an 800%+ surge in AI‑driven retail site traffic. Cyber Monday is forecast to reach $14.2 billion in U.S. online sales. [21]
Benzinga’s latest piece on Walmart’s record high explicitly ties the stock’s rally to this AI‑first strategy, citing Sparky, strong Black Friday results, and the OpenAI partnership as key drivers of investor enthusiasm. [22]
4. Automation, Symbotic and “Tech‑Powered” Logistics
Walmart’s physical scale is increasingly underpinned by automation:
- More than 60% of U.S. stores now receive some freight from automated distribution centers,
- Over 50% of e‑commerce fulfillment volume in the U.S. flows through automated facilities. [23]
A big piece of that story is Symbotic (SYM), the AI‑robotics company that powers much of Walmart’s back‑end automation. Recently, Symbotic stock dropped about 14% after a large secondary share offering, even though it remains up roughly 200% year‑to‑date and still sports a very high relative strength rating. [24]
For Walmart investors, Symbotic’s volatility is a reminder that automation is both a competitive advantage and a risk vector: Walmart benefits from cutting‑edge systems, but those systems are tied to high‑beta tech partners whose cycles can be bumpy.
5. Listing Switch to Nasdaq on December 9
Another catalyst on investors’ calendars: Walmart is moving its stock listing from the NYSE to the Nasdaq Global Select Market on December 9, 2025. [25]
Reuters notes that Walmart flagged this move during the Q3 release as part of its “people‑led, tech‑powered” strategy, underscoring how central technology has become to the business. [26]
Investor‑facing commentary (including a widely cited “Dear Walmart Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for December 9” piece) frames the switch as largely symbolic but positive, potentially boosting visibility among tech‑focused index and ETF investors. [27]
Wall Street’s View: Target Prices and Fundamental Forecasts
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Different data providers tell a consistent story: Wall Street is broadly bullish on Walmart, but upside from here looks modest rather than explosive.
- StockAnalysis.com (30 analysts):
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average 12‑month target:$118.27
- Implied upside: ~4.3% from ~$113–114
- Range: $91 (low) to $130 (high). [28]
- Simply Wall St – Analyst target table (38 analysts):
- Average target:$118.66
- Implied upside: +3.7% vs $114.41
- Range: $62–$130. [29]
- MarketBeat summary:
- 31 Buy ratings, 1 Hold, average rating “Moderate/Strong Buy”
- Average target:$119
- Highlights raised guidance and Q3 beat. [30]
Benzinga’s options‑focused note adds that five analysts over the past month have issued or reiterated bullish ratings with price targets between $110 and $130, including BTIG, Bernstein, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and KeyBanc, for an average around $121. [31]
Revenue and Earnings Growth Expectations
Street forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis point to steady, mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EPS growth: [32]
- Revenue FY25 (fiscal year ending Jan 2025): $680.99B
- Revenue FY26: $719.80B (+5.7%)
- Revenue FY27: $755.13B (+4.9%)
- EPS FY25: 2.41
- EPS FY26: 2.66 (+10.5%)
- EPS FY27: 2.99 (+12.2%)
Simply Wall St’s fundamental dashboard similarly notes that earnings are forecast to grow about 6–7% per year on average, and that Walmart delivered roughly 16% earnings growth over the past year, with strong balance‑sheet metrics and a reliable dividend. [33]
Valuation: Is Walmart Stock Overvalued After the 2025 Rally?
Here’s where opinions get more mixed.
High P/E vs Peers and “Fair” Value
Simply Wall St’s valuation work shows: [34]
- Current P/E: ~39–40x
- Consumer retailing industry average: ~20x
- “Fair” P/E for Walmart (their model): ~37x
Conclusion:
- By DCF, using analysts’ free‑cash‑flow forecasts out to 2030, they estimate a fair value around $112.95, calling Walmart “about right” at current prices. [35]
- By P/E vs industry and their Fair Ratio framework, they label the stock “overvalued”, since 39x is above both the sector and their adjusted fair multiple. [36]
Their broader scorecard gives Walmart 0/6 on valuation, 2/6 on future growth, but very strong marks on past performance and financial health, echoing the idea that quality is high but not cheap. [37]
The TS2.tech “near $900 billion valuation” analysis makes a similar point: Walmart is being priced as a global AI‑enabled retail platform, not just a brick‑and‑mortar grocer, and that premium leaves less margin for error if growth slows. TechStock²
Technical Picture and Short‑Term Trading Signals
Short‑term traders are focused on momentum, moving averages and options flow.
Trend, Momentum and Moving Averages
CoinCodex’s technical dashboard (updated December 4) shows: [38]
- Current price used in their model: $114.18
- 14‑day RSI:~60, in the neutral‑to‑slightly‑overbought zone
- 50‑day SMA: $104.22
- 200‑day SMA: $98.04
Benzinga adds that Walmart is trading roughly 9.4% above its 50‑day moving average and 16.3% above its 200‑day, underscoring a strong uptrend that’s extended but not yet extreme. [39]
Simply Wall St notes that the share price is up ~20% over 12 months and more than 130% over three years, with a 52‑week high at $114.89. [40]
Options Market: Mixed Signals From “Whales”
Benzinga’s “Check Out What Whales Are Doing With WMT” article (Dec 3) analyzed 10 unusual options trades in recent weeks and found: [41]
- 30% of large traders were bullish,
- 40% were bearish,
- The rest neutral or unclear.
Notable trades include:
- A bearish put sweep in January 2027 $110 puts (~$199K notional),
- Bullish call trades around $98 and $115 strikes with near‑term expirations, and
- A mix of long‑dated call and put activity in the $95–140 strike band.
Their takeaway: big money is active and somewhat cautious, positioning for volatility within a broad $95–140 range, even as analyst price targets cluster around $118–121. [42]
CoinCodex’s quantitative model, by contrast, labels the current sentiment “Bullish”, with 25 of 26 technical indicators flashing bullish and only one bearish, plus 15 green days out of the last 30 and moderate 3.2% volatility. [43]
Short‑ and Long‑Term Walmart Stock Forecasts
Quant & Technical Models
CoinCodex’s near‑term projection (as of December 4) expects: [44]
- WMT to rise about 4.2% to $119.24 by January 3, 2026,
- December 2025 trading in a channel between $113.81 and $120.32, with an average price around $116.92, implying a ~5.5% potential monthly return from current levels.
These are purely model‑driven technical forecasts, and CoinCodex explicitly notes they are not financial advice.
Street Fundamentals and Long‑Run Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, the dominant narrative across Reuters, Simply Wall St, StockAnalysis and MarketBeat looks like this: [45]
- Growth is steady, not hyper‑growth
- Revenue growing mid single digits,
- EPS growing low‑double digits thanks to margin mix (ads, membership, automation).
- Competitive edge is widening
- Omnichannel strength (stores + e‑commerce),
- AI‑driven experiences via Sparky and ChatGPT integration,
- Automated logistics and strong supplier relationships (e.g., Symbotic).
- Valuation already prices in much of this story
- P/E near 40x vs sector ~20x,
- Price targets clustered just a few percentage points above where the stock trades today.
Simply Wall St’s detailed valuation piece concludes that, based on discounted cash flow, Walmart is roughly fairly valued at current prices, but on earnings multiples it looks “mildly stretched”, not a deep value bargain. [46]
Key Risks for Walmart Shareholders
Even for a defensive giant like Walmart, today’s setup is not risk‑free.
- Rich valuation and limited margin of safety
- With the stock near all‑time highs, a P/E around 40x and PEG > 5, any slowdown in comps, e‑commerce growth or advertising monetization could spark a multiple compression sell‑off. [47]
- Macro pressure on core customers
- Lower‑income shoppers are still being squeezed by inflation, tariffs and a soft job market. Reuters noted that wage‑growth gaps between income cohorts are at their widest in nearly a decade, and that lower‑income households are under mounting financial stress. [48]
- While this currently benefits Walmart vs other retailers, a deeper downturn could eventually hurt basket sizes.
- AI and automation execution risk
- Walmart’s future increasingly hinges on complex systems — from Sparky and ChatGPT agents to automated warehouses and robotics partners like Symbotic. Any technology failures, data issues, regulatory scrutiny or poor ad experiences inside AI agents could create brand and financial risk. [49]
- Operational and product‑safety issues
- Recent FDA‑linked recalls of shredded cheeses sold at Walmart and other retailers highlight ongoing supply‑chain and brand‑reputation risks inherent in grocery retail. [50]
- Regulatory and competition pressure
- As Walmart pushes deeper into digital ads, financial services, healthcare and AI, it increasingly competes with tech and media giants — and may face scrutiny similar to other “systemically important” platforms over time. (This is a widely discussed structural risk, even if not the subject of a specific headline this week.)
Bottom Line: Is Walmart Stock a Buy After the 2025 Run‑Up?
Putting the latest news and forecasts together:
- Bullish points
- Record‑setting Q3 and raised FY26 guidance,
- Rapid e‑commerce and advertising growth,
- Strong traction with higher‑income consumers,
- Aggressive AI strategy (Sparky, OpenAI/ChatGPT) and automation,
- Nasdaq switch reinforcing the “tech‑powered retailer” story.
- Caution flags
- Valuation near the high end of historical and sector ranges,
- Options activity showing some large bearish bets alongside bullish ones,
- Macro stress on core consumer base,
- Execution and regulatory risks around AI and automation.
Most professional forecasters now see modest upside — typical 12‑month price targets sit around $118–121, only 3–7% above current levels, plus a relatively small dividend yield. [51]
For long‑term investors who believe in Walmart’s ability to:
- keep comp sales positive through cycles,
- grow e‑commerce and ads at double‑digit rates, and
- monetize AI tools like Sparky without alienating shoppers,
Walmart looks like a high‑quality, fairly‑to‑slightly‑expensive compounder.
For value‑focused or short‑term traders, the current setup may look more like a “wait for a pullback” situation than a screaming bargain, especially with the stock extended above key moving averages and options “whales” hedging both ways. [52]
Either way, Walmart has clearly entered a new phase where AI, automation and digital ads sit at the center of its equity story — and that’s what the market is paying up for right now.
Again, none of this is investment advice. If you’re considering Walmart stock, think about your own time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio mix, and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser.
References
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