Bitcoin Price Forecast Until December 31, 2025: Can BTC End the Year Above $100,000?

Bitcoin heads into the final weeks of 2025 in a fragile but improving position.

As of 4 December 2025, BTC trades around $92,000–$94,000, having bounced from lows near $84,000 earlier in the week and now barely back in positive territory for the year. ^[1] That recovery comes after Bitcoin hit a new all‑time high near $126,000 on 6 October 2025, before suffering one of its sharpest pullbacks of this cycle in November. ^[2]

With a key Federal Reserve meeting on 9–10 December, a maturing spot Bitcoin ETF market, and lingering post‑halving volatility, traders are asking the same question:

Can Bitcoin finish 2025 above $100,000 — or are we more likely to see a choppy, range‑bound end to the year?

Below is a data‑driven look at what’s moving the market now, and three plausible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price between today and 31 December 2025.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and you can lose all of your capital. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed adviser before investing.

Bitcoin price today: from record high to bruising correction

• Current zone: Bitcoin is trading in the low‑$90,000s, up around 4–5% in the last 24 hours after rebounding from sub‑$86,000 levels. ^[3]
• Year‑to‑date: Despite huge swings, BTC is only about 0.2% up year‑to‑date, according to CoinDesk data cited by Barron’s. ^[4]
• All‑time high: On 6 October 2025, BTC reached roughly $126,000–$126,300, its highest price ever. ^[5]
• November drawdown: November was Bitcoin’s second‑worst month of 2025, with the price falling more than 17%, driven by ETF outflows and losses among short‑term holders. ^[6]
• Recent low: In late November and early December, BTC briefly dropped into the $81,000–$84,000 area before stabilizing and then bouncing back above $90,000. ^[7]

Technically, analysts now highlight:

• Support in the $86,000–$90,000 zone
• Resistance around $95,000–$98,000, with the psychological $100,000 level just above ^[8]

That band will likely define the battle lines for bulls and bears into year‑end.

What drove Bitcoin in 2025: halving + ETFs + institutions

Three structural forces shaped Bitcoin’s 2024–2025 cycle — and they still matter for December’s outlook.

1. The 2024 halving

Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place around 19–20 April 2024, cutting the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. ^[9]

Historically, halvings reduce new supply and have often been followed by major price advances over the next 12–18 months, even if the immediate response is choppy. Research from Fidelity and other analysts notes that while this cycle’s post‑halving performance has been somewhat muted versus past cycles, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals and institutional adoption look stronger than ever. ^[10]

2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs

On 10 January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded products (ETPs) — 11 in total. ^[11]

Since then:

• The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market has grown to roughly $100+ billion in assets under management (AUM), with AUM up about 45% and institutional investors accounting for nearly a quarter of holdings. ^[12]
• BlackRock’s flagship IBIT ETF alone holds around 3.9% of all Bitcoin in existence and has become one of the firm’s top revenue drivers. ^[13]

This ETF infrastructure has turned Bitcoin into a mainstream portfolio asset for hedge funds, advisors, and even some sovereign and corporate treasuries — helping push prices from roughly $45,000 to over $120,000 by mid‑2025. ^[14]

3. Institutional demand vs. late‑cycle volatility

2025 has showcased both Bitcoin’s maturity and its fragility:

• An Ainvest research piece estimates a 31% crash to around $82,000 in November driven by hawkish Fed messaging, rising yields, and roughly $2 billion in liquidations, even as large “whale” wallets quietly added coins. ^[15]
• Northeastern University experts note that while Bitcoin’s market value swung dramatically after its October peak, they see crypto as “here to stay,” embedded in the broader financial system. ^[16]

Put simply: institutions are firmly in the game, but that hasn’t eliminated crypto‑style drawdowns.

Macro backdrop: Fed rate‑cut hopes dominate December

The Federal Reserve’s 9–10 December 2025 meeting is arguably the single biggest macro catalyst for Bitcoin’s year‑end path.

Recent data and market positioning show:

• Multiple sources (Reuters, CME FedWatch, and bank research) put the odds of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut in December at roughly 80–90%. ^[17]
• A weak U.S. private‑sector jobs report in November — 32,000 jobs lost, mostly at small businesses — has further boosted rate‑cut expectations. ^[18]
• U.S. equity indices hover near record highs as traders increasingly price in easier policy through 2026. TechStock²+1

Lower rates typically help risk assets such as tech stocks and crypto by:

1. Reducing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin
2. Weakening the dollar and improving global liquidity

If the Fed cuts as expected and signals openness to further easing in 2026, it would be a tailwind for BTC into the final weeks of the year. A surprise “no cut” or hawkish tone, on the other hand, could quickly revive November‑style selling.

Short‑term crypto drivers: ETFs, derivatives and “fair value”

ETF flows: from outflows to fragile inflows — and back again

After heavy outflows in November, spot Bitcoin ETFs enjoyed a brief five‑day streak of net inflows, averaging around $58.5 million per day, which coincided with BTC’s bounce from the mid‑$80Ks to the low‑$90Ks. ^[19]

However, the latest data show:

• A $14.9 million net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on 3 December, breaking that positive streak. ^[20]

This mixed picture reinforces a key point for December:

Sustained ETF inflows would likely support a push toward or above $100,000, while renewed outflows could cap rallies and pull BTC back toward support.

Derivatives & positioning

Futures and options positioning is also crucial:

• JPMorgan strategists estimate that the cost of producing Bitcoin is now near $90,000, and they frame that as a soft floor for prices given the economics of mining. ^[21]
• The same analysis suggests that the deleveraging in perpetual futures that started in September appears to have largely run its course, with open interest stabilizing around a $1.85 trillion BTC market cap. ^[22]
• A recent rebound was driven in part by a short squeeze, with more than $400 million of shorts liquidated in a single day, according to Investor’s Business Daily. ^[23]

Meanwhile, options data tracked by Reuters show that traders currently assign about a 50% chance of Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90,000 and only a 30% chance of finishing above $100,000. ^[24]

On‑chain “fair value” and network models

A widely discussed CoinDesk analysis notes that BTC recently dipped below its estimated “fair value” (based on network valuation models) for the first time in two years. Historically, such episodes have been followed by:

• Positive 12‑month returns in 96% of cases,
• With an average gain of around 132% over the following year. ^[25]

Of course, history is not destiny. But this helps explain why many long‑term investors view the $80K–$90K area as an accumulation zone rather than a reason to capitulate.

Bitcoin price forecast to December 31, 2025: three scenarios

No model can reliably predict where Bitcoin will trade on a specific day, especially within a month. But by combining:

• Current support/resistance levels,
• Macro expectations (the Fed),
• ETF flow trends, and
• Options‑implied probabilities,

we can outline three realistic price paths for BTC into year‑end.

These are illustrative scenarios, not guarantees.

1. Base case: consolidation between support and resistance

Probability (qualitative): Market‑implied “center of gravity”

Key assumptions

• The Fed delivers the widely expected 25‑bp rate cut with a balanced tone.
• ETF flows remain mixed: some days of inflows, some outflows, but no major shock.
• No extreme macro or regulatory surprise.

Technical context

• Short‑term technical analysis from multiple desks highlights:
  • Support around $86,000–$90,000,
  • Resistance near $95,000–$98,000, with $100,000 as a psychological ceiling. ^[26]

In this base case, Bitcoin:

• Spends most of December oscillating between the high‑$80Ks and high‑$90Ks, occasionally probing above $100K but failing to hold those levels.
• Ends 2025 somewhere in the $88,000–$98,000 range — roughly aligned with options markets, which price a relatively narrow probability gap between sub‑$90K and above‑$100K outcomes. ^[27]

Several analyst notes — including from Barron’s, Brave New Coin, and Coinpedia — see short‑term upside toward $96,000–$98,000, with a possible but not guaranteed break above $100K if momentum improves. ^[28]

2. Bull case: a clean break above $100,000

Probability (qualitative): Less likely, but plausible if catalysts align

What would need to happen?

• The Fed not only cuts in December but signals openness to multiple cuts in 2026, sparking a strong “risk‑on” wave. ^[29]
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs resume sustained, large net inflows, reversing November’s outflows and December’s wobble. ^[30]
• Bitcoin breaks above the $95K–$98K resistance band, turning it into support and invalidating near‑term bearish technical patterns. ^[31]

Under these conditions, BTC could:

• Challenge and potentially hold above $100,000,
• Stretch toward a $105,000–$110,000 area as shorts are forced to cover and FOMO returns, still below the October ATH near $126K but clearly signaling that the bull trend is intact. ^[32]

Longer‑term bullish narratives also shape this upside:

• A JPMorgan strategist argues that if Bitcoin is valued similarly to gold — adjusting for higher volatility — it could theoretically reach around $170,000 in coming years, with current production costs near $90,000 providing a “soft floor.” ^[33]
• Fundstrat and other houses have floated $150K–$250K targets for 2026, assuming continued ETF inflows. ^[34]

These longer‑dated projections don’t dictate where BTC must be on 31 December 2025, but they mean that many large‑scale players may treat dips as buying opportunities, increasing the odds of a late‑year squeeze if conditions line up.

3. Bear case: renewed sell‑off toward $80,000 — or worse

Probability (qualitative): A major but very real risk

This scenario would likely require some combination of:

• The Fed disappointing markets — for example, delaying the rate cut or pairing it with sharply hawkish projections. ^[35]
• A fresh wave of ETF outflows, echoing November’s move when over $900 million left spot funds during the crash. ^[36]
• Deteriorating macro sentiment (e.g., renewed recession fears or geopolitical shocks) that triggers a broad risk‑off move. ^[37]

What might it look like in price terms?

• Bloomberg‑cited analysts have warned that the slide below $90K could be “the start of a broader test” of support in the $60,000–$65,000 region if selling accelerates. ^[38]
• A recent Seeking Alpha halving‑cycle study notes that the third year after a halving has historically seen average peak‑to‑trough drawdowns of ~78%, arguing that a deep correction in 2026 is still a risk even after a 2025 peak. ^[39]

For December 2025 specifically, a realistic bear case is:

• BTC loses the $86,000–$90,000 support region,
• Slips back toward $80,000–$82,000, potentially printing new multi‑month lows if leverage builds up again. ^[40]

The extreme extension of this scenario — a swift move toward $70,000 or even the mid‑$60Ks — would likely require a “left‑tail” event (severe regulatory shock, a major ETF suspension, or macro crisis). While not the base expectation, it’s a risk that leveraged traders in particular need to respect.

How do multi‑year forecasts fit with a one‑month outlook?

Even though this article focuses on December 2025, it’s worth understanding the multi‑year narratives that influence how large investors behave around short‑term dips and rallies.

Some notable views:

• Halving‑cycle optimists: Several cycle analyses predicted a peak window between September and November 2025, which aligns with the October ATH near $126K. ^[41]
• Super‑bulls:
  • Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has suggested Bitcoin could reach around $180,000 by 2026 amid ongoing ETF inflows and regulatory clarity. ^[42]
  • Fundstrat and others see potential paths to $200K–$250K under strong institutional demand. ^[43]
• Cautious cycle theorists: Some analysts argue that after a 2025 peak, history points to elevated risk of a major downturn in 2026, with the halving cycle “blow‑off and crash” pattern still intact. ^[44]

For December 2025, the practical takeaway is:

• Structural bulls (those targeting 2026–2027 highs) are more inclined to buy weakness in the $80Ks–$90Ks, which supports the “soft floor” narrative.
• But cycle‑aware bears are ready to sell strength above $100K on the assumption that the top is in — which helps explain why options markets assign only about a 30% chance to finishing 2025 above that mark. ^[45]

This tug‑of‑war is exactly what makes the $90K–$100K band so important through year‑end.

What this means for traders and long‑term holders

Again, none of this is advice, but here’s how different types of market participants often think about a setup like December 2025.

Short‑term traders (days to weeks)

Common focal points:

• Key levels to watch
  • Support: $86K–$90K
  • Resistance: $95K–$98K, then $100K
• Dates that matter
  • 9–10 December – Fed meeting
  • U.S. jobs and inflation data releases through mid‑month
• Data to track daily
  • Net ETF inflows/outflows
  • Funding rates and futures open interest
  • Options skew (demand for downside vs upside protection)

In this horizon, risk management (stop‑losses, controlling leverage, limiting position size) is arguably more important than “being right” about whether Bitcoin will be at $88K or $98K on New Year’s Eve.

Longer‑term investors (12+ months)

Big‑picture considerations:

• If you believe the institutionalization of Bitcoin — via ETFs, corporate treasuries, and clearer regulation — will continue, then the current post‑ATH drawdown may look like another historical consolidation phase rather than the end of the story. ^[46]
• On‑chain “fair value” metrics and halving‑cycle studies point to historically strong 12‑month forward returnswhen BTC trades near or below key valuation lines — though there are no guarantees this pattern will repeat. ^[47]
• At the same time, research warning of large post‑peak crashes in the third year after halving reminds investors that even structurally bullish theses can include 50–80% drawdowns along the way. ^[48]

For such investors, diversification, position sizing and time horizon matter far more than whether Bitcoin closes December 2025 at $92K or $97K.

Bottom line: Volatile, but not directionless

Heading into the final weeks of 2025, the weight of current data suggests:

• Bitcoin is stabilizing above production‑cost and “fair value” estimates in the $90K area, after a sharp November correction. ^[49]
• The Fed’s December decision and tone around 2026 policy will heavily influence whether BTC spends year‑end consolidating just below $100K or breaks decisively higher or lower. ^[50]
• Options markets currently lean toward a sideways conclusion — roughly equal risk of closing below $90K or somewhere in the $90K–$100K band, with a non‑trivial but smaller chance of a $100K+ close. ^[51]

In other words:

A year‑end close between roughly $88,000 and $98,000 looks like the “path of least resistance,” with $100,000+ or a slide back toward $80,000 both possible but less likely tails — for now.

Whatever your timeframe, the key is to treat any Bitcoin price forecast — including this one — as a set of scenarios and risk factors, not a promise. Crypto remains one of the most volatile assets in global markets, and that’s unlikely to change between now and 31 December 2025.

References

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