TD Bank Stock Soars After Q4 2025 Earnings Beat and Dividend Hike: Is Toronto-Dominion Still a Buy for 2026?

On December 4, 2025, Toronto-Dominion Bank stock (Toronto: TD.TO, New York: TD) pushed near fresh 52‑week highs after the bank reported better‑than‑expected Q4 2025 earnings, raised its dividend, and reaffirmed ambitious growth targets for 2026 and beyond. ^[1]

At the same time, investors are still weighing the aftershocks of TD’s US$3 billion anti‑money‑laundering (AML) settlement in the United States and a multi‑year compliance overhaul that continues to shape the TD Bank stock story. ^[2]

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at TD Bank stock today, including the latest earnings, dividend changes, strategy, regulatory backdrop, and analyst forecasts as of December 4, 2025.

TD Bank stock today: price, performance and valuation

As of the latest trade on December 4, 2025, TD Bank stock trades around US$85.9 on the NYSE, up about 1.8% on the day. ^[3]

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, TD’s own Q4 earnings release lists a closing share price of C$115.16 as of October 31, 2025, with a one‑year total shareholder return of 56.7%—a figure consistent with multiple reports noting that TD shares have surged around 54% in 2025 year to date. ^[4]

Key valuation metrics from TD’s Q4 financial tables: ^[5]

Price-to-earnings (P/E), reported: ~10×
Price-to-earnings, adjusted: ~13.8×
Dividend yield (trailing): ~3.9%
Book value per share: C$68.78
Market cap: about C$194.6 billion

That puts TD Bank firmly in large‑cap, blue‑chip territory, with a valuation that’s no longer distressed but still modest versus many global financials.

Sector‑wide, analysts at Reuters note that Canada’s “Big Six” banks, including TD, now trade at roughly 12.9× forward earnings, about a 23% premium to their 10‑year average, after an average 32% share-price gain in 2025, leading some to describe the group as “fully valued” heading into Q4 results. ^[6]

Q4 2025 results: earnings beat, flat revenue, strong fee income

Headline numbers

For the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025, TD Bank reported (all figures in Canadian dollars): ^[7]

Reported total revenue: C$15.49 billion (essentially flat vs. C$15.51 billion a year ago)
Adjusted revenue: C$16.03 billion (up from C$14.90 billion a year ago)
Reported net income: C$3.28 billion (down from C$3.64 billion)
Adjusted net income: C$3.91 billion (up from C$3.21 billion, +22% YoY)
Reported EPS: C$1.82 vs. C$1.97 last year
Adjusted EPS: C$2.18 vs. C$1.72 last year

On a U.S. basis, Zacks (via Nasdaq) reports Q4 EPS of US$1.56, beating the consensus estimate of US$1.46, a 6.85% earnings surprise. ^[8]

RTT News echoes this, noting that adjusted EPS of C$2.18 beat an average analyst estimate of C$2.01 and that revenue, while down 0.1% year‑over‑year, still came in ahead of expectations. ^[9]

What drove the beat?

A series of early‑day analyst takes highlight what powered the upside in TD Bank stock after the release:

Net interest income (NII) strength: Reuters reports that adjusted net interest income rose to C$8.59 billion from C$8.03 billion in the prior year’s quarter, despite economic caution and trade‑policy noise. ^[10]
Wealth & fee income: Seeking Alpha’s recap of the Q4 results notes that Wealth Management delivered record earnings, supported by strong fee and trading income, and that TD’s markets‑driven businesses were a key driver of the earnings beat. ^[11]
Segment performance: According to that same Q&A summary: ^[12]
- Canadian Personal & Commercial Banking net income grew about 2% year‑over‑year.
- U.S. Retail net income rose 31% year‑over‑year, excluding the prior Schwab stake.
- Wealth Management & Insurance net income jumped by roughly C$350 million, helped by record wealth earnings and lower catastrophe claims.
- Wholesale Banking net income increased by roughly C$259 million, driven by higher revenue and lower provisions for credit losses.

Put simply, revenue growth shifted towards fee‑based businesses—wealth management, insurance, and capital markets—rather than relying purely on interest‑rate spreads, exactly the mix TD’s management has been targeting.

Fiscal 2025: a “pivotal year” with big capital moves

In his 2025 letter to shareholders, new CEO Raymond Chun describes fiscal 2025 as a “pivotal year,” marked by both strong financial performance and major strategic repositioning. ^[13]

From TD’s own disclosures and Chun’s letter: ^[14]

Reported revenue: C$67.78 billion
Adjusted revenue: C$61.81 billion (+9% year‑over‑year)
Reported earnings: C$20.54 billion (inflated by one‑time gains)
Adjusted earnings: C$15.03 billion (+5% year‑over‑year)
CET1 capital ratio: 14.7% (very strong vs regulatory minimums)

The biggest single capital event of 2025 was TD’s decision to sell its entire remaining stake in The Charles Schwab Corporation:

On February 12, 2025, TD sold its ~10.1% Schwab stake for C$21.0 billion, recognizing a net gain of C$8.6 billion and boosting CET1 capital by 238 basis points. ^[15]

Chun emphasizes that TD is returning most of those proceeds to shareholders: ^[16]

The bank initiated an C$8 billion normal course issuer bid (NCIB) share repurchase program, expected to be completed in Q1 fiscal 2026.
TD plans an additional C$6–7 billion share buyback in fiscal 2026, subject to regulatory approval, which would effectively return almost all Schwab proceeds to shareholders.

The combination of double‑digit total shareholder returns, rich capital buffers, and aggressive buybacks is a core part of the current TD Bank stock narrative.

Dividend news: semi‑annual review cycle and a higher payout

Alongside Q4 results, TD announced a dividend increase and a structural shift in how it manages the payout:

In a December 4 media release, TD moved from an annual dividend review to a semi‑annual review cycle, explicitly aligning dividend growth with earnings growth. ^[17]
The bank declared a quarterly dividend of C$1.08 per common share for the quarter ending January 31, 2026, up from C$1.05—an increase of three cents. ^[18]
TD’s Q4 earnings release cites a trailing dividend yield of about 3.9% and a dividend payout ratio around 48–58% of adjusted earnings, broadly consistent with management’s long‑term 40–50% payout target. ^[19]

The dividend is backed by that strong CET1 capital ratio and by the bank’s medium‑term plan to sustain positive operating leverage (revenue growth outpacing expense growth). ^[20]

For income‑oriented investors watching TD Bank stock, the takeaway from today’s news is clear: management is signaling confidence in future earnings by raising the dividend and reviewing it more often.

Regulatory overhang: TD’s US$3 billion AML settlement is still shaping the story

While 2025 has looked like a comeback year for TD Bank stock, it’s happening in the shadow of one of the largest AML enforcement actions in U.S. history.

What happened?

In October 2024, the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) levied a record US$1.3 billion penalty against TD for repeated failures to maintain an effective Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) anti‑money‑laundering program, calling TD’s missteps “chronic failures” that enabled serious criminal activity, including fentanyl trafficking and human trafficking‑related flows. ^[21]
On the same day, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that TD pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and BSA violations, agreeing to pay more than US$1.8 billion in criminal penalties. ^[22]

Combined, these actions amount to over US$3 billion in sanctions and remediation commitments, plus a four‑year independent monitorship overseeing TD’s AML program. ^[23]

2025 developments: monitor appointed, CEO transition

In February 2025, Reuters reported that TD appointed Guidepost Solutions as the independent compliance monitor mandated by U.S. regulators. The bank earmarked about US$500 million for compliance work, with CFO Kelvin Tran reiterating that “AML remediation is our top priority.” ^[24]

The scandal also triggered leadership changes:

Long‑time CEO Bharat Masrani departed.
Raymond Chun took over as Group President and CEO in early 2025. ^[25]

TD’s Investor Day slide deck explicitly lists “AML remediation is our #1 priority”, noting that remediation is on track and that costs are expected to remain stable through fiscal 2026. ^[26]

Why this still matters for TD Bank stock

Even as earnings and the share price recover, the AML saga remains a key risk for TD investors:

Multi‑year oversight: TD is under a multi‑year monitorship that can impact management focus, cost structure, and expansion plans, especially in the U.S. market. ^[27]
U.S. asset cap: Reuters previously highlighted that TD’s U.S. operations are subject to an asset cap, limiting balance‑sheet growth until regulators are satisfied with the bank’s controls. ^[28]
Reputational risk: The FinCEN and DOJ releases describe years of serious compliance failures, which can influence how institutional investors and counterparties view the franchise. ^[29]

So while the market is rewarding TD Bank stock for its operational turnaround, some discount could persist until the AML chapter is fully closed.

Strategy reset: “Deeper, faster, disciplined” growth plan

At its September 29, 2025 Investor Day, TD laid out a strategy summarized in three words: “Deeper, Faster, Disciplined.” ^[30]

Key pillars from the Investor Day materials and CEO letter:

Deeper relationships & more fee income
- TD wants to deepen relationships with its 28 million clients, aiming to sell more products per customer and shift more activity into wealth management, insurance, and capital markets. ^[31]
- Management expects fee income growth to add roughly 170 basis points to ROE over the medium term, driven largely by TD Securities, Wealth, and Insurance. ^[32]
Faster, AI‑driven operations
- TD is heavily investing in data and artificial intelligence, with over 2,500 AI and data specialists working on automation, digital sales, and risk management. ^[33]
- Branches are being repositioned from transaction hubs to advice‑focused centres, with simple everyday transactions pushed to digital channels. ^[34]
Disciplined execution and cost cuts
- Across the bank, TD is targeting C$2–2.5 billion in structural cost savings over the medium term through process redesign, automation and procurement efficiencies. ^[35]

Financial targets: 2026 and 2029

TD’s Q4 earnings release now embeds explicit financial targets tied to this strategy: ^[36]

Fiscal 2026 targets:
- ~13% adjusted ROE
- 6–8% year‑over‑year adjusted EPS growth
- Positive operating leverage
- CET1 ratio 13%+
Medium‑term “fiscal 2029” targets:
- ~16% adjusted ROE
- 7–10% adjusted EPS growth
- Strong CET1 and 40–50% dividend payout ratio

These targets, combined with today’s results, frame TD Bank stock as a self‑help story: a bank using capital from asset sales and cost cuts to re‑accelerate growth while still returning significant cash to shareholders.

What Wall Street and valuation models say about TD Bank stock

Analyst ratings and price targets

Different analyst and data platforms paint a nuanced picture of where TD Bank stock might go from here:

Investing.com’s consensus shows TD rated “Buy”, with 15 analysts giving an average 12‑month price target of about 118 (currency context suggests Canadian dollars), with a high of 130 and a low of 95. ^[37]
MarketBeat’s TSX‑based data lists an average target of C$109.46 from 10 analysts, implying roughly 8% downside from a current price around C$119.38. ^[38]
On the U.S. side, StockAnalysis.com shows an average 12‑month target of US$105 for TD, about 22–23% abovethe latest U.S. trading price, with an aggregate rating of “Buy.” ^[39]

A recent MarketBeat note on TD hitting a new one‑year high highlights that five analysts rate TD Bank stock a “Buy” and four a “Hold,” with upgrades from firms like RBC and Desjardins but also a downgrade from Jefferies to “Hold” as the valuation has run ahead. ^[40]

Independent valuation work

Third‑party equity research platforms are also weighing in:

Simply Wall St recently asked whether it’s “too late to invest in TD Bank after its 54% year‑to‑date surge,” yet its Excess Returns model still suggests the stock is about 27% undervalued, implying a fair value near C$160+ per share on the TSX. ^[41]
That said, Reuters’ December 1 Canadian bank preview warns that the Big Six banks, including TD, now trade at forward multiples above historical norms, leaving “near‑term upside likely constrained” if earnings don’t keep getting revised higher for 2026 and 2027. ^[42]

In short, quantitative models tend to screen TD as reasonably valued or modestly undervalued, while some traditional bank analysts worry about multiple compression after such a sharp run‑up.

How today’s TD news fits into the broader Canadian bank story

TD’s Q4 beat was part of a broader wave of strong Canadian bank results:

A Reuters piece today notes that TD, Bank of Montreal, and CIBC all beat profit estimates for Q4, helped by capital markets strength and higher trading revenue, with wealth management contributing meaningfully to results. ^[43]
Earlier in the week, analysts had already flagged that Canadian banks entered Q4 with “strong valuations”, boosted by investment banking and wealth income, but that 2026 guidance would be the real test. ^[44]

TD’s results and updated targets directly address that concern by:

Beating Q4 expectations
Guiding to 6–8% adjusted EPS growth in 2026
Raising the dividend and detailing aggressive buybacks ^[45]

That combination helps explain why TD Bank stock has become one of the standout performers on the TSX in 2025.

Key risks for TD Bank stock heading into 2026

Even with today’s strong print, investors watching TD Bank shares should keep several risks front and center:

AML and regulatory risk
- TD remains under intensive U.S. regulatory scrutiny, including a four‑year AML monitorship, large remediation commitments, and a U.S. asset cap. Any misstep could trigger additional penalties or delay growth. ^[46]
Execution risk on strategy and cost cuts
- TD’s plan involves C$2–2.5 billion in cost savings, major digital transformation, and a shift to more fee income. Failure to execute could mean missing its 2026 and 2029 ROE and EPS targets. ^[47]
Macro and credit risk
- Canadian banks are still exposed to high household debt, mortgage renewals, and potential economic slowdown, while investors remain wary of private credit and non‑bank financial institution exposures in their loan books. ^[48]
Valuation risk after a 50%+ rally
- After a year where TD Bank stock is up roughly 50–55%, even solid earnings might not prevent bouts of volatility if sentiment turns or if 2026 guidance disappoints. Analysts already describe the group as “fully valued” on average. ^[49]
Currency and cross‑border complexity
- For U.S. investors in NYSE:TD, returns are impacted by CAD/USD exchange rates and TD’s mix of Canadian vs. U.S. earnings, which can swing with interest‑rate differentials and trade policy.

Bottom line: Is TD Bank stock a buy after Q4 2025?

From a news and fundamentals perspective, the December 4, 2025 updates support a few clear conclusions about TD Bank stock:

Momentum is real: TD just delivered a clean Q4 earnings beat, strong growth in fee‑based businesses, and a 5% increase in adjusted earnings for the year, all while boosting its capital returns. ^[50]
Shareholder‑friendly actions continue: The dividend hike, the shift to semi‑annual dividend reviews, and C$14–15 billion in planned buybacks (current plus next NCIB) underscore management’s confidence in TD’s earnings power. ^[51]
The AML overhang is shrinking, but not gone: Regulators have set penalties, a monitor is in place, and TD is investing heavily to fix its systems, but that four‑year remediation horizon is still a non‑trivial risk factor. ^[52]
Valuation is no longer “bargain basement”: After a year of outsized gains, TD trades at roughly 10–14× earnings with a 3.5–4% dividend yield, and consensus price targets range from modest downside on the TSX to 20%+ upside on the NYSE, depending on the dataset. ^[53]

For long‑term investors who are comfortable with bank‑sector and regulatory risk, TD Bank stock now looks like a re‑rated, capital‑rich franchise with a clear plan to grow earnings and fee income while returning significant cash to shareholders.

For more cautious investors, the combination of high sector valuations, regulatory baggage, and a huge 2025 rally may justify a more patient, watch‑and‑wait approach—especially if you’re worried about North American credit cycles or prefer cleaner regulatory stories.

Either way, the December 4, 2025 news flow—earnings beat, dividend hike, explicit 2026–2029 targets, and a confident CEO letter—solidifies TD Bank’s place at the center of any conversation about large‑cap Canadian bank stocks heading into 2026.

Important: This article is for information and general commentary only and is not investment advice. Always consider your own financial situation and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.