Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC, TSX: CM; NYSE: CM) delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2025 on Thursday, posting record annual earnings, a fourth‑quarter profit beat, and a double‑digit dividend increase — all while its share price trades near 52‑week highs.
The numbers are drawing fresh attention from income investors and bank‑stock watchers alike, but they also arrive against a backdrop of higher loan‑loss provisions and rich sector valuations. Here’s what today’s results and the latest analyst forecasts suggest for CIBC stock.
Record year, strong Q4 beat
CIBC reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of C$7.58 billion, up about 14% from a year earlier and 4% from Q3. Reported net income rose to C$2.18 billion, a 16% year‑over‑year increase. Adjusted net income landed at C$2.19 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS of C$2.21, also up 16% year‑on‑year. [1]
Those results came in comfortably ahead of expectations. Market data compiled by FactSet and reported by outlets including Reuters and Investing.com show consensus estimates around C$2.07–C$2.08 in EPS and C$7.21–C$7.27 billion in revenue, meaning CIBC beat on both the top and bottom line. [2]
For the full year ended 31 October 2025, CIBC reported:
- Net income: C$8.5 billion (vs. C$7.2 billion in 2024)
- Adjusted net income: C$8.5 billion (vs. C$7.3 billion)
- Adjusted pre‑provision, pre‑tax earnings: C$13.3 billion (vs. C$11.3 billion)
- Adjusted diluted EPS: C$8.61 (vs. C$7.40)
- Adjusted ROE: 14.4% (up from 13.7%) [3]
CEO Harry Culham, presiding over his first earnings release as president and chief executive, described 2025 as a year of “record financial performance” driven by the bank’s client‑focused strategy and disciplined risk management, while signalling continuity in strategy as he settles into the top job. [4]
Where the growth came from
Beneath the headline numbers, three themes stand out:
1. Capital markets stole the show
CIBC’s Capital Markets division was the breakout performer. Net income in this segment jumped roughly 58% year‑over‑year to around C$548 million, helped by a rebound in dealmaking and stronger trading revenue. [5]
Sector‑wide, a Reuters recap noted that capital markets businesses across Canada’s big banks benefited from higher market volatility and renewed M&A activity, which lifted fee income and trading revenue in the final quarter of the year. [6]
2. Core Canadian banking remained solid
In the bread‑and‑butter Canadian Personal and Business Banking unit, CIBC generated about C$796 million of net income in Q4, while Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management contributed roughly C$603 million, representing high single‑digit growth in that segment. [7]
Net interest income — essentially the spread between what CIBC earns on loans and pays on deposits — continued to improve. Net interest income rose to about C$4.13 billion, up from C$3.63 billion a year earlier, while the net interest margin on average interest‑earning assets ticked up to 1.59% from 1.50%. [8]
3. Loan‑loss provisions rose sharply
The flipside of that growth story is credit risk. Provision for credit losses (PCL) climbed to C$605 million in Q4, up 44% from C$419 million a year ago. Management cited a less favourable economic outlook in Canada and some negative credit migration, partially offset by prior‑year model updates. [9]
Full‑year loan‑loss ratios remain in the low‑30‑basis‑point range, but the step‑up in provisions is a reminder that Canadian consumers and businesses are still digesting higher rates and trade‑related uncertainty. [10]
Dividend raised 10% – and a 150+ year payout streak continues
Alongside the earnings report, CIBC’s board increased the quarterly common‑share dividend from C$0.97 to C$1.07, a roughly 10% raise, for the quarter ending 31 January 2026. The dividend is payable 28 January 2026 to shareholders of record on 29 December 2025. [11]
At today’s Toronto share price around the low C$120s, the new payout implies an annualized dividend of C$4.28 per share and a yield in the mid‑single digits, depending on the exact price you use.
For dividend investors, CIBC’s track record is one of its biggest selling points: the bank hasn’t missed a regular common‑share dividend since its first payment in 1868, according to its own investor‑relations materials. [12]
Management also continues to emphasize capital strength. CIBC reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.3%, unchanged from a year earlier and comfortably above regulatory minimums, giving the bank room to keep funding growth while returning capital through dividends — and potentially buybacks over time. [13]
How CIBC stock is reacting
TSX: CM
CIBC’s Toronto‑listed shares have been on a tear in 2025. Heading into the earnings release, they were trading just below their 52‑week high, with recent intraday peaks around C$122–C$123 and a close of C$119.50 on 2 December. An AI‑driven analysis from Meyka noted year‑to‑date gains of roughly 33% and six‑month gains near 36% on the TSX listing. TechStock²
In early post‑earnings trading, various data feeds show CM.TO hovering in the low C$120s, keeping it within touching distance of that recent high.
NYSE: CM
On the New York Stock Exchange, CIBC’s U.S.‑dollar shares were recently changing hands around the high‑US$80s, up roughly 3% on the day according to real‑time quote data. [14]
Over the last 12 months, CM’s U.S. listing has climbed about 30–35%, with a 52‑week range roughly from the mid‑US$50s to the high‑US$80s, based on aggregates from Business Insider and Finviz. [15]
A broader Reuters look at Canada’s big six banks this week noted that the group’s shares have gained about 32% on average in 2025, outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s ~27% rise and leaving valuations above long‑term norms — a backdrop that makes continued earnings beats particularly important. [16]
Valuation: no longer cheap, but not wildly stretched
Several data providers show CIBC trading at roughly 12–15 times earnings, depending on whether you look at trailing or forward numbers and which currency you use. TechStock²+1
Reuters estimates Canada’s big banks are trading at about 12.9× forward earnings, around a 23% premium to their 10‑year average. CIBC is broadly in line with that sector average. [17]
In other words:
- CIBC stock is no longer the “deep value” bargain it appeared to be during the 2023–24 banking scare.
- But relative to the overall Canadian bank group and considering its stronger earnings growth this year, its valuation doesn’t look extreme either — especially for investors prioritising dividends and stability.
What analysts are saying about CIBC stock
Street ratings and price targets
On the Toronto listing (CM.TO):
- TMX/TipRanks data show a “Hold” consensus from seven analysts (2 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell). [18]
- MarketBeat’s Canadian coverage pegs the average 12‑month price target around C$113, below today’s price near C$121, implying mild downside in their base case. Recent target revisions range from about C$96 to C$127, with Scotiabank recently nudging its target up to C$123 and reiterating an “outperform” view. [19]
On the U.S. listing (CM):
- MarketBeat’s U.S. notes and Public.com both cite an average target around US$107.50, reflecting modest upside from current levels, and describe the overall stance as “Moderate Buy” / “Buy.” [20]
- Finviz’s snapshot shows a somewhat lower target around US$87.41, but also assigns CM one of its stronger recommendation scores, based on Zacks research that has upgraded the stock in recent months. [21]
- Business Insider’s compilation points to a median U.S. target near US$102, with a high estimate of US$116 and a low around US$77 from the small group of analysts it tracks. [22]
A November analyst round‑up highlighted by Yahoo Finance noted that CIBC’s fair value estimate was recently lifted from about C$110 to roughly C$113 per share, reflecting a more optimistic view of the bank’s earnings trajectory and capital markets franchise. [23]
Earnings forecasts
Ahead of today’s release, Raymond James projected FY2025 EPS of about US$6.05 for CM, above a consensus closer to US$5.50, and assigned a “Market Perform” rating while forecasting further EPS growth into 2026. [24]
Now that CIBC has delivered adjusted EPS of C$8.61 (roughly US$6+) for fiscal 2025 and guided to high‑single‑digit growth, those estimates look increasingly achievable — though they will depend on credit quality and economic conditions staying reasonably benign. [25]
AI and algorithmic price targets
Beyond traditional analysts, a handful of AI‑based and quantitative tools updated their views on CIBC stock ahead of and after earnings:
- Meyka AI projects CIBC’s TSX shares could reach around C$123.48 within a month and about C$164 over three years, while flagging leverage and “overbought” technical indicators as risks. TechStock²
- Coincodex, which generates algorithmic forecasts from historical prices, sees CM’s U.S. shares trading in a band of roughly US$86–US$92 in 2025, and between US$91 and US$150 by 2030, though such model‑based predictions can swing significantly with new data. [26]
These tools can be interesting sentiment gauges, but they’re not a substitute for traditional fundamental analysis — especially in a regulated, cyclically exposed business like banking.
Key messages from the earnings call
An earnings‑call summary from Investing.com distilled several important themes from CIBC’s management commentary: [27]
- Record year, higher ambitions: Management emphasised that 2025’s C$8.5 billion in net earnings and 14.4% ROE set a baseline, with a stated goal of pushing ROE above 15% in fiscal 2026.
- Guidance: CIBC is aiming for EPS growth at the high end of its 7–10% medium‑term target range, assuming moderate economic growth.
- Technology and AI: CFO Rob Sedran underlined that AI “is not pixie dust” and requires sustained investment, signalling that tech and data spending will remain a multi‑year priority.
- Capital and risk: The bank expects loan‑loss provisions to remain in the low‑to‑mid‑30‑basis‑point range, acknowledging that credit costs are unlikely to return to pre‑pandemic lows soon.
- Leadership and organisation: The call introduced additional members of the executive leadership team and highlighted newly announced senior executive changes that will take effect from early 2026, aligning management structure with growth priorities in U.S. banking, wealth and capital markets. [28]
Risks and what to watch in 2026
Even with a clean earnings beat and a bigger dividend, CIBC isn’t without risks:
- Higher credit costs: The 44% jump in Q4 provisions shows the bank is preparing for more stress in its loan book, particularly in Canada, where household debt levels are high and mortgage renewals continue at higher rates. [29]
- Rich sector valuations: With Canada’s big six banks trading above their long‑term average multiples after a ~30% rally, any miss on earnings or guidance could prompt a sharper pullback than usual. [30]
- Trade and regulatory uncertainty: Reuters has highlighted how changing U.S. trade policies and tariffs are adding volatility and potential pressure to some Canadian industries, which in turn affects bank loan books and capital markets activity. [31]
- Execution on strategy: CIBC’s new leadership team is targeting higher ROE and faster EPS growth while simultaneously investing heavily in technology. Delivering on both cost discipline and innovation will be a delicate balance.
What today’s news means if you follow CIBC stock
For long‑term dividend investors, the story looks straightforward: CIBC just posted record earnings, raised its dividend by 10%, and maintains a capital ratio and payout level that look sustainable under current conditions. The bank’s history of uninterrupted dividends since 1868 adds weight to that income thesis. [32]
For total‑return‑focused investors, things are more nuanced:
- The stock has already rerated significantly higher this year.
- Analyst targets suggest either modest upside or mild downside from today’s prices, depending on the source, reflecting the view that a lot of good news is already priced in. [33]
- The key swing factors for 2026 will likely be credit costs, capital markets momentum, and whether CIBC can hit its >15% ROE and high‑single‑digit EPS growth ambitions.
As always, whether CM belongs in your own portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, income needs, time horizon and overall diversification. Today’s earnings confirm that CIBC is executing well and rewarding shareholders — but in a banking cycle that still carries real economic and regulatory risks, careful position sizing and ongoing monitoring remain essential.
References
1. www.cibc.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.cibc.com, 4. www.newswire.ca, 5. ng.investing.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. ng.investing.com, 8. www.newswire.ca, 9. www.newswire.ca, 10. www.newswire.ca, 11. www.newswire.ca, 12. www.cibc.com, 13. www.newswire.ca, 14. finviz.com, 15. markets.businessinsider.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. money.tmx.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. markets.businessinsider.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.cibc.com, 26. coincodex.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.prnewswire.com, 29. www.newswire.ca, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.cibc.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com
