Published: December 4, 2025
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is trading just below record highs as of December 4, 2025, capping a powerful run driven by a big earnings beat, a fresh dividend, and a $2 billion move to supercharge its ETF business. At around $838 per share, Goldman sits near its 52‑week high of roughly $841, more than 40% above where it traded a year ago. [1]
At the same time, Wall Street’s average 12‑month price target now sits slightly below the current share price, suggesting a more balanced risk/reward profile in the near term even as longer‑term fundamentals remain robust. [2]
Below is a full rundown of the latest news, forecasts and analyses on Goldman Sachs stock as of December 4, 2025, drawing on coverage from the last several days.
Key takeaways on Goldman Sachs (GS) stock today
- Near record highs: GS trades around $838, within a whisker of its recent all‑time high near $841, after gaining just over 40% over the past 12 months. [3]
- Earnings power: Q3 2025 results beat estimates with $12.25 EPS on $15.18 billion in net revenue and a 14.2% return on equity (ROE) — a strong profitability profile for a global investment bank. [4]
- Dividend support: A $4.00 quarterly dividend (annualized $16.00, ~1.9% yield) went ex‑dividend on December 2, 2025, reinforcing the shareholder return story. [5]
- Strategic pivot: Goldman has agreed to buy Innovator Capital Management for about $2 billion in cash and stock, adding $28 billion in assets across 159 “defined outcome” ETFs and cementing its push into active ETFs and fee‑based asset management. [6]
- Funding moves: New long‑dated bond issuance and structured notes extend Goldman’s funding profile into the 2040s and 2050s, which analysts largely see as routine balance‑sheet management. [7]
- Analyst stance: Consensus rating is “Hold” with average price targets clustering around $786–$833, implying flat to modest downside from today’s price despite expectations for earnings growth into 2026. [8]
- Long‑term compounding: A hypothetical $1,000 invested in GS in December 2015 would be worth about $4,517 today (price only, excluding dividends) — a gain of roughly 352%, beating both the S&P 500 and gold over the period. [9]
Goldman Sachs stock today: price, valuation and performance
Intraday data on December 4 show GS around $838, with the session’s range roughly $834–$843 and a 52‑week range of about $439.38–$841.28. [10]
Key valuation and risk metrics from recent data:
- Market cap: ≈ $251 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~17.0x
- PEG ratio: ~1.07
- Beta: ~1.36 (more volatile than the broader market)
- 50‑day moving average: ≈ $789
- 200‑day moving average: ≈ $731 [11]
Over the last year, GS has delivered just over 40% price appreciation, versus roughly mid‑teens returns for the S&P 500, according to multiple market data providers. [12]
From a long‑term standpoint, Nasdaq’s analysis notes that $1,000 invested in December 2015 would be worth about $4,517 today, a 351.7% gain excluding dividends — ahead of the 234% gain for the S&P 500 and 272% for gold over the same period. [13]
That track record helps explain why GS continues to attract attention in screeners and “most searched” stock lists, including a fresh Zacks piece highlighting the name on December 4, 2025. [14]
Earnings momentum and dividend: the fundamental backbone
Q3 2025: big beat on revenue and EPS
Goldman’s latest quarterly report (Q3 2025, released October 14) underpins much of the recent rally:
- Net revenues:$15.18 billion
- Net earnings:$4.10 billion
- Diluted EPS:$12.25
- Annualized ROE:14.2% [15]
MarketBeat’s summary shows that EPS topped consensus by nearly $2 per share ($12.25 vs. $10.27), and revenue beat estimates by roughly $1.5 billion, with net margin around 13% and ROE above 15%. [16]
A recent Nasdaq recap highlights:
- Goldman has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters.
- The Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management divisions are driving revenue growth.
- The firm’s refocus on its core strengths (investment banking, trading, and alternatives) plus targeted acquisitions in private credit and asset management is boosting diversification and fee income. [17]
Dividend: $4.00 per quarter and room to grow
The stock also offers a growing income stream:
- Quarterly dividend:$4.00 per share
- Annualized:$16.00 (about 1.9% yield at current prices)
- Ex‑dividend date:December 2, 2025
- Payment date: scheduled for December 30, 2025
- Payout ratio: ~32.5% of earnings [18]
That payout level leaves management flexibility for buybacks, future dividend hikes, and funding strategic deals while still maintaining a robust capital position.
Strategic pivot: $2 billion bet on Innovator and active ETFs
The biggest strategic headline this week is Goldman’s agreement to buy Innovator Capital Management, a specialist in “defined outcome” ETFs.
Deal terms and strategic rationale
According to Goldman’s own press release and multiple news outlets:
- Deal value: about $2 billion in a cash‑and‑stock transaction. [19]
- Innovator’s footprint: roughly $28 billion in assets across 159 ETFs, focused on income, “buffer” (downside‑cushion) and growth strategies that use options to shape risk/return profiles. [20]
- Post‑deal scale: combined, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) and Innovator will oversee more than 215 ETF strategies with ~$75 billion in ETF assets, within a broader $3.5 trillion platform. [21]
- Closing timeline: expected in Q2 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. [22]
The deal plugs Goldman deeper into one of the fastest‑growing corners of asset management:
- Global assets in actively managed ETFs have grown to about $1.6 trillion, compounding around 47% annually since 2020. [23]
- The defined‑outcome ETF segment alone is near $50 billion and could quadruple by 2030, according to industry estimates cited in recent coverage. [24]
For CEO David Solomon, the acquisition fits a multi‑year pivot away from mass‑market consumer banking and toward asset and wealth management as steadier sources of fee revenue. The Financial Times and other outlets emphasize that Innovator’s toolkit dovetails with Goldman’s ambitions to be a top‑tier provider of risk‑managed, income‑oriented ETF solutions for advisors and institutions. [25]
Morningstar summed up early reaction with a pointed headline: the Innovator deal “looks rich, but strategic alignment makes sense” — suggesting that while the price tag isn’t cheap, the deal could prove accretive if Goldman leverages its distribution and balance sheet to scale those products. [26]
Broader asset‑management push
The Innovator purchase is not happening in isolation:
- Goldman has reportedly planned to take up to a $1 billion stake in T. Rowe Price, strengthening ties with a major active manager and adding to its wealth‑ and asset‑management ecosystem. [27]
- A newly released 2026 Investment Outlook from Goldman Sachs Asset Management highlights themes like AI‑driven innovation, central‑bank divergence, and infrastructure and private credit as long‑term opportunity sets — all areas where an expanded ETF and alternatives platform can be monetized. [28]
Taken together, the message to investors is clear: Goldman wants a bigger slice of high‑fee, capital‑light businesses, with ETFs as one of the key engines.
Funding and balance‑sheet moves: long‑dated bonds and structured notes
Alongside the Innovator deal, Goldman has been active in the debt and structured‑product markets:
- In late November and early December, the firm issued several long‑dated senior and subordinated notes, including zero‑coupon paper due 2041 and callable step‑up notes maturing between 2028 and 2055. [29]
- Recent 424B2 filings show a steady pipeline of auto‑callable and index‑linked notes tied to equity indices and single stocks, part of Goldman’s structured‑products franchise and wholesale funding toolkit. [30]
Simply Wall St’s latest analysis argues that this wave of issuance looks more like routine balance‑sheet management than a change in the investment thesis: it provides flexible, term‑matched funding that supports lending, trading inventory and capital‑markets activity, while helping Goldman fine‑tune its capital structure. [31]
On the ESG and reputational front, a recent article spotlighted comments from Asahi Pompey, president of the Goldman Sachs Foundation, warning that U.S. political shifts could strain funding for diversity‑, equity‑ and inclusion‑focused charities — even as Goldman’s own philanthropic programs such as 10,000 Small Businesses, 10,000 Women and One Million Black Women continue to expand. [32]
While that discussion doesn’t directly affect today’s earnings, it underscores that Goldman’s franchise value depends partly on its social license and regulatory relationships, which can be influenced by broader political and societal trends.
What Wall Street thinks: GS stock forecasts and price targets
Consensus ratings: “Hold” at today’s price
Analyst sentiment has turned more cautious as the stock has climbed toward record territory:
- MarketBeat aggregates 21 analyst ratings over the past year and finds a consensus “Hold”:
- 1 Sell
- 16 Hold
- 4 Buy [33]
- The average 12‑month price target in that dataset is $786, with a range of $600–$890. Based on a reference price around $839, that implies about 6% downside on average. [34]
A separate compilation from StocksGuide, covering a broader analyst universe, paints a similar picture:
- Among 32 analysts, 15 rate GS “Buy”, 16 “Hold”, 1 “Sell”.
- The average target price is $832.83, essentially flat versus recent trading levels (within half a percent). [35]
In other words, the Street broadly likes Goldman’s franchise but believes much of the near‑term good news is already in the price.
Earnings and margin projections
StocksGuide’s aggregated forecasts suggest analysts expect steady but not explosive growth from here:
- 2025 revenue: about $60.6 billion, followed by mid‑single‑digit growth into 2026–2027. [36]
- Net profit: roughly $15.1 billion in 2025, rising to $17.2 billion in 2026 and above $19 billion by 2027. [37]
- EPS: consensus of about $50.01 in 2025, climbing to $56.86 in 2026, implying low‑teens annual growth. [38]
- Net margin: projected to move toward the mid‑20s percent and higher over the medium term, helped by mix shift toward asset management and fee businesses. [39]
Nasdaq’s coverage notes that no 2025 earnings estimates have been revised lower in the past two months, while several have been revised higher, and that analysts “anticipate more upside” based on Goldman’s restructuring and expansion in alternatives and private credit. [40]
Seasonality and long‑term context: December tailwinds and 10‑year outperformance
December has historically been a constructive month for equities, and Goldman often appears on seasonality screens for this time of year. A recent Benzinga piece listing seven S&P 500 names that “often rally in December” includes The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) among its highlighted tickers, alongside cruise lines and tech hardware names. [41]
More importantly, GS’s decade‑long total price return has been exceptional:
- +351.7% price gain since December 2015 for GS (excluding dividends).
- +234.2% for the S&P 500 over the same period.
- +271.9% for gold. [42]
Other analyses this week also underscore the compounding effect of owning Goldman through cycles — but they warn that future returns from today’s elevated base will depend on whether earnings can continue to surprise to the upside and whether valuation multiples hold up in a shifting rate environment. [43]
Macro backdrop and Goldman’s house view
Goldman’s stock doesn’t trade in a vacuum; it’s tightly linked to global economic and market conditions.
- A recent Goldman Sachs Research piece (“The S&P 500 Is Projected to Rally More Than Expected”) raised the firm’s forecast for index returns, reflecting optimism around earnings and valuations heading into the second half of 2025. [44]
- In a separate 2026 Investment Outlook, Goldman Sachs Asset Management emphasizes themes such as AI‑driven innovation, diverging central‑bank policies, and opportunities in securitized credit, emerging‑market debt and infrastructure, arguing that a diversified multi‑asset approach will be critical in a more complex macro regime. [45]
A widely cited MarketWatch column on the retirement of Goldman’s long‑time chief equity strategist David Kostin notes that he does not see a bubble in public‑market AI stocks, even as he warns that some private‑market valuations look stretched. The same piece references Goldman’s S&P 500 target of about 7,600 for 2026, modestly above many peers. [46]
For GS shareholders, this backdrop matters because:
- Stronger‑than‑expected equity markets typically boost trading, investment‑banking and asset‑management fees.
- However, a sharp reversal or tighter‑than‑expected policy path could pressure risk assets and deal activity, weighing on earnings and capital‑markets revenues.
Key risks: valuation, regulation and execution
Despite strong fundamentals, several risk factors stand out in the latest analyses:
- Valuation risk
- At roughly 17x trailing earnings and near its all‑time high, GS trades at a full valuation relative to its own history and in line with or slightly above some large‑bank peers. [47]
- With consensus price targets clustered around current levels, any disappointment on earnings or macro conditions could translate quickly into price volatility. [48]
- Regulatory and capital requirements
- Simply Wall St and others highlight lingering uncertainty around future capital rules and leverage requirements for large banks, which could affect Goldman’s flexibility for buybacks, dividends and growth investments. [49]
- Fee and competitive pressure
- The move into active ETFs and defined‑outcome products brings new revenue opportunities, but also exposes Goldman to intense competition from other asset‑management giants and the risk that fee compression erodes margins over time. [50]
- Execution risk on the Innovator deal
- Successfully integrating Innovator’s 159 products, team and technology into GSAM — while preserving what makes them attractive to advisors — will be critical to realizing the strategic value of the $2 billion outlay. [51]
- Expense and technology investment
- Nasdaq’s coverage points out that rising expenses, including ongoing investments in technology and AI, are a concern. The payoff from these initiatives will have to show up in sustained productivity and revenue growth to justify the spend. [52]
- Macro and geopolitical exposure
- Goldman earns a substantial portion of its revenue overseas; the firm itself and external analyses flag that this leaves earnings sensitive to geopolitical risk, trade tensions and local regulatory changes. [53]
Bottom line for GS investors on December 4, 2025
As of today, Goldman Sachs stock sits at an interesting crossroads:
- Pros
- Earnings and ROE are strong, with Q3 results comfortably beating expectations. [54]
- A reliable and growing dividend, plus a long record of outperformance, make GS attractive to long‑term, quality‑focused investors. [55]
- The Innovator acquisition and broader ETF/alternatives push deepen Goldman’s footprint in capital‑light, fee‑based businesses that can compound earnings over time. [56]
- Cons
For short‑term traders, that combination often translates into a more balanced risk/reward setup: strong momentum and December seasonality on one side, but crowded positioning and tight valuation on the other. [59]
For long‑term investors, Goldman’s decade‑long track record, franchise strength in global banking and markets, and deliberate move deeper into asset and wealth management still make GS a high‑quality financial blue chip — provided you’re comfortable with the usual banking‑sector risks and potential volatility that comes with a higher‑beta stock. [60]
Important note:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not individual investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always consider your own financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance, and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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