Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock on December 4, 2025: Q3 Earnings Shock, Quantum Roadmap and 2026

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) remains one of 2025’s wildest stories in quantum computing and in the broader U.S. stock market. After rocketing from penny‑stock territory in 2023 to a 2025 high above $58, the stock has just endured a brutal November sell‑off tied to Q3 2025 earnings, even as the company doubles down on an aggressive roadmap toward 1,000+ qubits and deep partnerships with NVIDIA, global research labs, and defense customers. ^[1]

As of December 4, 2025, Rigetti shares trade around $28 per share, well below their October peak but still hundreds of percent higher than a year ago. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest news, earnings, forecasts, and analyses as of December 4, 2025, to give a comprehensive view of where RGTI stands now and what the market is pricing in.

Key Takeaways (as of December 4, 2025)

Price & volatility: RGTI trades around $28, after a November drop of about 42% and a roughly 33% slide over the last 21 trading days, even though the stock is still up roughly 700%+ year‑on‑year. ^[3]
Q3 2025 results: Revenue was about $1.9 million, down ~21% year‑over‑year, with a GAAP net loss of ~$201 million driven largely by non‑cash warrant revaluation. Non‑GAAP net loss was closer to $10.7 million. ^[4]
Cash runway: Rigetti ended Q3 with $558.9 million in cash and investments, which management says has risen to roughly $600 million after warrant exercises and earlier capital raises. ^[5]
Technology roadmap: The company targets a 100+ qubit system with ~99.5% two‑qubit fidelity by end‑2025, a 150+ qubit system in 2026, and a 1,000+ qubit system in 2027. ^[6]
Partnerships: Recent wins include $5.7M in Novera™ system orders, a $5.8M U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory contract with QphoX, a high‑profile NVIDIA NVQLink collaboration, and academic/industrial deals in India, Italy, Korea and the U.S. ^[7]
Analyst sentiment: Street opinions range from “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy.” TipRanks now shows 7 analysts with an average target of $40.60 and a Street‑high target of $51, while other aggregators still quote older median targets in the $18–$25 range. ^[8]
Technical view: Short‑term technical models flag RGTI as a “sell candidate” with very high risk, but still project a wide potential range that could see the stock anywhere between roughly $22 and $64 over the next three months. ^[9]
Valuation debate: At recent prices, Rigetti is still worth billions of dollars on annual revenue in the single‑digit millions, trading at hundreds to ~1,000x sales depending on the snapshot, prompting some commentators to compare its valuation to a “magic act.” ^[10]

Rigetti stock today: still hyper‑volatile, still massively up year‑on‑year

On December 4, 2025, RGTI changes hands around $28 per share. In today’s session, various data providers report an intraday range roughly from the mid‑$25s to the high‑$28s, underlining just how violently the shares can swing in a single day. ^[11]

From a longer‑term perspective:

52‑week range: about $2.8 (low) to $58.15 (high), with that high set in mid‑October 2025. ^[12]
12‑month performance: roughly +600–800%, compared with a low‑double‑digit gain for the S&P 500 in the same period. ^[13]
Recent volatility: technical analysis from StockInvest.us notes an 11.5% intraday swing on December 3 and average daily volatility above 6% over the last week, classifying the stock as “very high risk.” ^[14]

This backdrop is important: even after a brutal drawdown, RGTI is still a high‑beta, speculative growth stock, not a stable blue chip.

November’s 42% plunge: Q3 2025 earnings and a reality check

Rigetti’s latest leg lower began around its Q3 2025 earnings release in mid‑November.

What Q3 2025 looked like

According to an in‑depth breakdown from Quantum Computing Report and company disclosures, Rigetti’s Q3 numbers were a mix of small but growing revenue, heavy operating losses, and huge non‑cash accounting swings: ^[15]

Revenue: about $1.9 million, up 5.6% quarter‑over‑quarter but down 20.6% year‑over‑year (vs. $2.4M in Q3 2024).
Operating expenses: roughly $21.0 million, up nearly 13% year‑over‑year as the company continues to invest heavily in R&D and commercialization.
GAAP net loss: about $201 million, driven mainly by a $182 million non‑cash loss tied to the revaluation of derivative warrant liabilities.
Non‑GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million, which management and several analysts argue is a better proxy for ongoing cash burn.
Cash & investments:$558.9 million at quarter‑end, later rising to roughly $600 million with additional warrant exercises. ^[16]

TipRanks’ recap adds that Rigetti modestly beat EPS expectations (a loss of $0.03 vs. a $0.04 consensus loss) but missed on revenue ($1.94M vs. a ~$2.17M estimate), which helped sour the market mood. ^[17]

How the stock reacted

A widely cited Motley Fool analysis notes that Rigetti’s stock fell about 42% in November, with the Q3 release acting as a key trigger. ^[18]
Trefis calculates that over the last 21 trading days, RGTI has dropped 33.4%, even after recent bounces. ^[19]

Put simply, Q3 reminded investors that underlying revenues remain small and lumpy, while headline GAAP losses can be eye‑watering thanks to warrant accounting. That was enough to crack the speculative momentum that had been propelling the stock since spring.

The quantum roadmap: 100+ qubits now, 1,000+ by 2027

Despite the sell‑off, the long‑term technology roadmap is exactly what keeps many bulls interested.

Rigetti’s Q3 update and subsequent coverage outline an aggressive plan built around its modular, multi‑chip superconducting architecture: ^[20]

By end‑2025:
- Deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based quantum system with an expected 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
By end‑2026:
- Deploy a 150+ qubit system targeting ~99.7% two‑qubit fidelity.
By 2027:
- Launch a 1,000+ qubit system with a targeted 99.8% fidelity, aimed at approaching “utility‑scale” quantum advantage.

TipRanks notes that Needham analyst Quinn Bolton has called this timeline “realistic”, crediting the modular multi‑chip design and strong cash buffer as reasons to believe the company can keep executing. ^[21]

Quantum Computing Report highlights that this roadmap is capital‑intensive but supported by a robust balance sheet and growing ecosystem of partners. ^[22]

Strategic deals: NVIDIA NVQLink, AFRL networking and global expansion

If the roadmap is the “why” behind Rigetti’s valuation, then the partnerships and contracts are the early proof points.

NVIDIA NVQLink and hybrid AI–quantum systems

On October 28, 2025, Rigetti announced support for NVIDIA’s NVQLink, an open platform that tightly integrates quantum processors with AI supercomputers over the CUDA‑Q stack. ^[23]

Key elements of the collaboration:

NVQLink enables low‑latency, high‑throughput connectivity between CPUs, GPUs, Rigetti’s QPUs, and their control systems.
Rigetti showcased a full‑scale quantum computer alongside NVIDIA at GTC Washington, D.C., emphasizing practical hybrid workloads. ^[24]

StockTitan’s event recap notes that on the day this news was announced, RGTI rallied about 8% and closed around $42.86, briefly pushing the company’s market cap above $13 billion. ^[25]

Defense and networking: AFRL contract with QphoX

Rigetti is also going after quantum networking, a crucial piece of scalable quantum infrastructure:

Together with Dutch startup QphoX, Rigetti won a three‑year, $5.8 million contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to develop superconducting quantum networking that can entangle superconducting qubits with optical photons over fiber. ^[26]

This contract both validates Rigetti’s technology and deepens its relationship with U.S. defense stakeholders.

On‑prem quantum systems and global partnerships

Rigetti is steadily turning from pure cloud access to on‑premises system sales and international collaborations:

Two Novera™ systems sold: Roughly $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9‑qubit Novera QPUs—one to an Asian tech manufacturer and another to a California applied physics/AI startup. ^[27]
MSU collaboration: Montana State University became the first academic institution with an on‑prem Rigetti quantum computer, using a Novera QPU for research and workforce development. ^[28]
India (C‑DAC MOU): Rigetti signed an MOU with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C‑DAC) to co‑develop hybrid quantum systems and workflows. ^[29]
Italy: The company plans to open an Italian subsidiary to tap into Europe’s growing quantum market and local talent. ^[30]
Korea: A separate partnership with Norma aims to deploy an 84‑qubit quantum cloud service in Korea, introduced at Q2B Tokyo 2025. ^[31]

Collectively, these moves reflect a strategic push toward global, on‑prem, and hybrid AI‑quantum use cases, not just research‑only cloud access.

Revenue, losses and cash: is the balance sheet strong enough?

Top line: still small and volatile

Rigetti remains in the early commercialization stage:

Full‑year 2024 revenue: about $10.8 million, down ~10% from 2023. ^[32]
Q1 2025: revenue of $1.5 million, down 52% year‑over‑year, which caused a 10% share price drop on the day of that release. ^[33]
Q3 2025: revenue of $1.9 million, modestly up sequentially but still low versus the company’s multi‑billion‑dollar valuation. ^[34]

Some analysts emphasize that system sales and contracts (like the Novera orders and AFRL networking deal) are important early indicators of future recurring revenue—but they are not yet large enough to transform the P&L. ^[35]

Bottom line: GAAP vs non‑GAAP

Losses are large and heavily influenced by non‑cash items:

2024 net loss: roughly $201 million, more than double 2023’s loss, largely due to fair‑value adjustments on warrants and earn‑out liabilities. ^[36]
Q3 2025 GAAP net loss:$201 million, again dominated by non‑cash warrant revaluation. ^[37]
Q3 2025 non‑GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million, which strips out those fair‑value changes and stock‑based comp. ^[38]

Earlier in 2025, Q1 looked “profitable” on paper, with GAAP net income of $42.6 million, but this was entirely due to $62.1 million in non‑cash gains on the same derivative and earn‑out liabilities; underlying operations remained loss‑making. ^[39]

Cash and dilution

The other side of the ledger is more comforting:

Cash, cash equivalents and investments:
- $558.9M at Q3 2025 quarter‑end. ^[40]
- Approximately $600M as of early November after warrant exercises and earlier capital raises. ^[41]
Barron’s notes that a $350 million capital raise in June 2025 helped push total liquidity to around $575M at the time, giving Rigetti one of the largest cash cushions among pure‑play quantum start‑ups. ^[42]

Zacks and other commentators have framed the key question bluntly: can Rigetti keep this balance sheet strong while scaling up R&D, systems, and global partnerships, without excessive further dilution? ^[43]

Who’s buying and who’s selling? Institutions vs insiders

Data compiled by Quiver Quantitative highlights a striking split between institutional accumulation and insider profit‑taking: ^[44]

Institutional buying:
- 232 institutional investors increased their RGTI positions in the most recent quarter, while 149 reduced them.
- Vanguard Group added about 8.64 million shares (+60.9%), and BlackRock added roughly 5.97 million shares (+39.4%).
Insider selling:
- Over the last six months, insiders executed 16 open‑market sales and zero open‑market purchases.
- CEO Subodh Kulkarni sold around 1,000,000 shares; other executives including the CTO and CFO have also sold hundreds of thousands of shares.

This pattern—big institutions building positions while management sells into strength—is typical of high‑flying growth stories. Bulls argue it simply reflects diversification by insiders; bears view it as a red flag that leadership is cashing out during a speculative run.

Analyst views and RGTI stock forecasts

Analyst sentiment on Rigetti is cautiously bullish but highly dispersed, reflecting both the upside potential and the extreme uncertainty.

TipRanks: Moderate Buy with big upside potential

A fresh December 4, 2025 TipRanks piece titled “Rigetti Computing Stock (RGTI) Forecast: Should Investors Buy the Dip?” summarizes the Street stance as follows: ^[45]

Rating:Moderate Buy based on 7 analysts (5 Buys, 2 Holds).
Average 12‑month target:$40.60, implying ~56% upside from recent levels.
Street‑high target:$51 from Needham’s Quinn Bolton.
Bolton emphasizes Rigetti’s detailed roadmap—150+ qubits in 2026 and 1,000+ qubits in 2027—as a realistic, stepwise plan backed by ample cash.
Benchmark analyst David Williams calls the recent pullback “healthy” and points to growing system sales and contracts as signs that Rigetti is inching closer to commercial utility.

A recent Barron’s feature notes that Williams lifted his target from $20 to $50 after Rigetti’s 36‑qubit multi‑chip system became commercially available ahead of schedule, and after the company secured the AFRL contract and other wins. ^[46]

Other aggregators: legacy targets still catching up

Different data providers still show older, lower targets, highlighting how quickly both price and opinions have evolved in 2025:

QuiverQuant: median target around $18.50 across four analysts over the last six months, with individual targets clustered between $15 and $20. ^[47]
StockAnalysis.com: average rating “Strong Buy” across five analysts, but with a $24 average target—now below the current price, reflecting earlier, more conservative assumptions. ^[48]
MarketBeat: current consensus labeled “Moderate Buy” with a consensus target of about $25.43. ^[49]

Taken together, the Street’s view can be summarized like this:

Consensus sees Rigetti as a high‑risk Buy with very long‑dated upside, but there is huge dispersion in price targets—from the high‑teens to the low‑50s—because nobody really knows how quickly quantum computing will translate into meaningful revenue and profits.

Short‑term technical picture: a “sell candidate” with wide trading bands

From a pure chart and indicator perspective, technical services are much more skeptical than many fundamental analysts.

StockInvest.us currently labels RGTI as a “sell candidate” despite near‑term momentum: ^[50]

The stock just gained 9.05% on December 3, moving from $23.88 to $26.04, with volume jumping to 34 million shares.
Their models see a buy signal from the 3‑month MACD and short‑term moving average, but a sell signal from the longer‑term moving average—classic “downtrend but bouncing” behavior.
In the short term they expect the stock to:
- Trade between roughly $24.6 and $27.5 on a typical day (±12% swing).
- Face resistance around $28.5 and support near $25.5.
- Remain a “very high risk” name given its big intraday moves and wide Bollinger Bands.

Their three‑month model even allows for outcomes between roughly $21.70 and $64.34 with 90% probability—an enormous range that underscores how little visibility purely technical systems have on a stock like RGTI. ^[51]

Valuation: bubble territory or early entry into quantum computing?

The sharp pullback has not erased the core debate around Rigetti: is the stock still in bubble territory, or is this what early exposure to a potentially transformational technology looks like?

“Magic act” valuations

An analysis on IndexBox highlights just how stretched things got in late October: ^[52]

With Rigetti trading around $38, the company was valued at more than 1,000x its sales.
A wealth manager quoted in the piece compared the valuation to a “magic act,” pointing to a $13 billion market cap vs. forecast revenues of about $22 million in 2026 (LSEG consensus).

Trefis’ December 4 snapshot still shows: ^[53]

Market cap around $7.8 billion at a price of roughly $26.
Trailing twelve‑month revenue of only $7.9 million, implying a price‑to‑sales ratio close to 1,000x.
An operating margin of roughly ‑976%, reflecting heavy losses relative to revenue.

Even after November’s collapse, RGTI is thus priced more on optionality than on current fundamentals.

Sector‑wide bubble concerns

Multiple recent Motley Fool and Nasdaq‑syndicated pieces caution that pure‑play quantum names like Rigetti, IonQ, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. may be in a classic speculative bubble and could see drawdowns of 80% or more if sentiment turns or if commercialization lags expectations. ^[54]

Those articles point out that:

Real‑world revenue is still limited across the sector.
Error correction, stability, and scalability remain major technical challenges.
History shows that early leaders in game‑changing technologies often suffer massive boom‑bust cycles before a sustainable winner emerges.

Against that backdrop, Rigetti’s triple‑digit price‑to‑sales multiples and huge volatility are both a warning sign and a reflection of markets trying to price an uncertain future.

Risk checklist for Rigetti stock

For investors thinking about RGTI today, the key risks raised in recent research and filings include: ^[55]

Execution risk on the roadmap
- Hitting 100+ qubits is one thing; delivering a 1,000+ qubit, high‑fidelity, useful system by 2027 is another. Delays or technical setbacks would likely trigger sharp sell‑offs.
Commercialization risk
- Current revenue is tiny relative to valuation. If system sales, cloud usage, and government contracts don’t ramp meaningfully over the next few years, investors may reassess what they’re willing to pay for the story.
Competition from other quantum and Big Tech players
- Rivals like IonQ (trapped‑ion systems) and D‑Wave (annealing), not to mention IBM and Alphabet, are pursuing different quantum architectures and have strong customer relationships. Rigetti must differentiate on performance, cost, and ecosystem.
Dilution and capital intensity
- The roadmap demands heavy capex and R&D. While Rigetti currently has hundreds of millions of dollars in cash, future raises—or substantial warrant exercises—could dilute existing shareholders.
Insider selling vs. institutional buying
- Persistent insider sales might signal management’s desire to lock in gains, while institutional accumulation suggests some big investors still see upside. Neither is definitive, but the tension is worth tracking. ^[56]
Macro and sentiment risk
- High‑beta names like RGTI tend to get hit hard if broader markets turn risk‑off, as Trefis’ downturn‑resilience analysis for past drawdowns shows. ^[57]

So, is Rigetti Computing stock a buy right now?

Only you can decide whether RGTI fits your goals and risk tolerance, but the current consensus picture looks roughly like this:

Bulls focus on:
- A clear multi‑year technology roadmap to 1,000+ qubits. ^[58]
- A very strong cash position that should fund development for several years. ^[59]
- Growing evidence of commercial traction: Novera system sales, AFRL networking contract, NVIDIA NVQLink collaboration, and global academic and industrial partnerships. ^[60]
- Analyst targets from firms like Needham and Benchmark in the $50+ range, implying significant upside from current levels. ^[61]
Bears focus on:
- Revenue still measured in single‑digit millions, with steep operating losses and high ongoing cash burn. ^[62]
- Extreme valuations—often several hundred to about 1,000x sales—compared with even hot AI names. ^[63]
- Heavy insider selling over the last six months. ^[64]
- The possibility that quantum stocks as a group could be in a bubble, with downside scenarios involving 50–80% drawdowns if expectations reset. ^[65]

For very risk‑tolerant investors who understand that:

the technology is early,
earnings may remain negative for years, and
price swings of ±20% in a week (or a day) are entirely possible,

Rigetti can be seen as a leveraged bet on the future of superconducting quantum computing and hybrid AI–quantum workloads.

For more conservative investors, the combination of sky‑high valuation, thin revenue, and sector bubble risk may be a reason to watch from the sidelines or gain exposure via more diversified vehicles (for example, broader tech or quantum‑themed ETFs) rather than a single, highly volatile stock.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

References

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock on December 4, 2025: Q3 Earnings Shock, Quantum Roadmap and 2026–2027 Forecasts