MDA Space Stock (TSX:MDA): Why This Beaten‑Down Canadian Space Leader Could Be a Long‑Term Winner After a 52% Crash

MDA Space Ltd. (TSX:MDA) has become one of the most talked‑about Canadian growth stories in 2025—for good and bad reasons. The stock has fallen by more than 50% from its 52‑week high, even though revenue, earnings and backlog are all surging, and the company keeps landing high‑profile space contracts in Canada and abroad. ^[1]

As of early trading on December 4, 2025, MDA shares trade around C$23–24, versus a 52‑week high of C$48.31, leaving the stock down over 50% from its peak but still up roughly 266% over the past three years and valued at about C$2.9 billion. ^[2]

Today’s fresh news—a new federal Earth‑observation contract tied to Canada’s RADARSAT program—adds another layer to the story and is already pushing the stock higher intraday. ^[3]

This article pulls together today’s contract announcement, the latest Q3 and full‑year outlook, EPS and balance‑sheet trends, and analyst forecasts and risks to answer a simple question implied by recent headlines like “1 Magnificent Canadian Stock Down 52% to Buy and Hold Forever”: is MDA Space really a long‑term buy‑and‑hold candidate?

Key Takeaways for MDA Space Stock (TSX:MDA)

Big drawdown, strong business: Share price is down more than 50% from its 52‑week high, but revenue, EPS and backlog are all hitting record levels. ^[4]
New federal contract today: MDA just secured a C$44.7 million contract plus a concept‑study award tied to Canada’s C$1.012 billion RADARSAT+ initiative, with the government signalling its intention to award MDA the full mission contract in 2026. ^[5]
Q3 2025: high growth, solid margins: Revenue grew 45% year‑over‑year to C$409.8 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 49% to C$82.8 million with ~20% margins, and backlog stood at C$4.4 billion. ^[6]
Robust 2025 outlook reaffirmed: Management still expects 2025 revenue of C$1.57–1.63 billion (~48% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of C$305–320 million (~45% growth), with neutral‑to‑positive free cash flow despite heavy growth capex. ^[7]
Analysts still bullish: MarketBeat reports 7 analysts rating MDA a Buy (6 Buy, 1 Strong Buy) with a consensus 12‑month price target implying around 50–70% upside from current levels, depending on the data provider. ^[8]
Real risks remain: The EchoStar contract cancellation, customer concentration, supply‑chain delays on Globalstar and MDA’s own CHORUS constellation, and tariff or geopolitical risk can all drive sharp volatility. ^[9]

1. Share Price Pain: From Market Darling to 52% Drawdown

Over the last few years, MDA Space has been a huge winner for early shareholders. A recent analysis notes a three‑year gain of about 266%, even after the recent slide. ^[10]

But more recent performance has been brutal:

Current price: ~C$23–24 per share. ^[11]
52‑week range: about C$19.96–C$48.31, putting the stock more than 50% below its high. ^[12]

Several things drove this drawdown:

Loss of a C$1.8 billion EchoStar contract.
In early September, satellite operator EchoStar cancelled a planned C$1.8 billion MDA contract after shifting strategy and selling spectrum to SpaceX—news that sent MDA shares down over 25% in a single day and dragged the TSX lower. ^[13]
A hot stock cooling off.
Before the shock, MDA had rallied sharply on enthusiasm for satellite constellations, defence spending and Canada’s space ambitions. Once expectations were sky‑high, any negative surprise was bound to hurt.
Macro and contract‑risk jitters.
Investors are increasingly wary of names where a few big contracts drive a huge chunk of future revenue—exactly the risk S&P Global Ratings highlighted when it rated MDA. ^[14]

The result is a classic “price vs. performance” disconnect: the share price tells a tale of crisis, while the operating numbers tell a very different story.

2. Today’s Big News: A New C$44.7 Million RADARSAT Contract

On December 4, 2025, MDA announced it has been awarded a C$44.7 million contract by Public Services and Procurement Canada, on behalf of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), to procure critical long‑lead parts for a RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) replenishment satellite. ^[15]

Key details:

The contract is part of RADARSAT+, a C$1.012 billion, 15‑year federal initiative to secure Canada’s future Earth‑observation capability. ^[16]
Ottawa also announced its intent to contract MDA to build, test and launch the replenishment satellite, with the full mission contract expected in 2026, subject to final approvals. ^[17]
MDA also received about C$747,000 for a concept study on a next‑generation SAR (synthetic aperture radar) system, one of three companies selected for this work. ^[18]
The company plans to leverage its MDA CHORUS™ satellite design to deliver the new RCM satellite efficiently, building on its decades‑long role in Canada’s RADARSAT programs. ^[19]

Market reaction has been swift: one intraday note from Investing.com reported MDA stock up around 7–8% following the contract news. ^[20]

Why this matters:
Financially, C$44.7 million is modest against a C$4.4 billion backlog, but strategically it is huge. It:

Reinforces MDA’s role as Canada’s go‑to Earth‑observation partner;
Gives it a front‑row position for the much larger full mission award in 2026;
Showcases MDA’s SAR and digital payload capabilities at a time when defence and climate‑driven demand for radar imagery is exploding.

3. Q3 2025 Results: Growth Story Intact

The underlying business looks very different from the depressed share price.

In its Q3 2025 results (released November 14), MDA reported: ^[21]

Revenue: C$409.8 million, up 45.1% year‑over‑year
Adjusted EBITDA: C$82.8 million, up 49.2%, with a 20.2% margin
Adjusted net income: C$46.1 million, up ~33%
Adjusted diluted EPS: C$0.35 vs. C$0.28 (+25%)
Backlog:C$4.39 billion at quarter‑end
Net debt / adjusted EBITDA: just 0.3×, even after funding acquisitions

Segment performance shows where the growth is coming from: ^[22]

Satellite Systems: C$283.5 million revenue, +69% YoY, driven by the Telesat Lightspeed and Globalstar next‑gen LEO constellations.
Robotics & Space Operations: C$78.3 million, +17.7%, helped by the Canadarm3 program ramp‑up.
Geointelligence: C$48.0 million, roughly flat YoY, reflecting timing of programs.

A report in Via Satellite added colour: CEO Mike Greenley noted that while Q3 growth was strong, MDA is facing supply‑chain delays on both the Globalstar program and its own CHORUS Earth‑observation constellation, pushing certain deliveries into 2026 and triggering liquidated damages provisions at the customer level. ^[23]

Despite those delays, MDA reiterated that execution remains on track overall—and crucially, the company reaffirmed its full‑year 2025 outlook.

4. 2025 Outlook: High‑Growth Guidance Reaffirmed

MDA’s 2025 guidance, first reset higher after its strong Q2 and then reaffirmed with Q3, is aggressively growth‑oriented: ^[24]

Revenue:C$1.57–1.63 billion
- ~48% year‑over‑year growth at the midpoint
Adjusted EBITDA:C$305–320 million
- ~45% growth at the midpoint, with 19–20% margins
Capex:C$210–240 million in 2025, largely growth investments
Free cash flow: expected to be neutral to positive for the full year

For context, 2024 revenue was about C$1.08 billion with net income of C$79.4 million, so the company is effectively guiding to add roughly half a billion dollars in revenue in a single year. ^[25]

This guidance explicitly excludes any impact from U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports announced earlier this year. Management has said it is working with customers on mitigation plans and may update the outlook if tariff impacts become material. ^[26]

5. EPS Momentum and Insider Alignment: What Simply Wall St Highlighted

A recent analysis from Simply Wall St zeroed in on what many growth investors care about most: earnings per share (EPS) growth and insider alignment. ^[27]

The piece notes that:

MDA’s EPS has climbed from about C$0.57 to C$0.87, representing roughly 50‑plus percent growth over the period they examined.
Revenue has expanded from around C$0.95 billion to C$1.5 billion, a jump of about 58%, while EBIT margins have remained fairly stable, suggesting scale benefits rather than margin erosion.
Insiders collectively own about C$67 million of stock, or roughly 2.2% of the company, which the authors view as a sign that management is financially aligned with shareholders.

Their bottom line: a company delivering that kind of top‑ and bottom‑line growth with meaningful insider ownership is “worth watching closely”—particularly when the share price is beaten down.

6. Strategic Moves: Globalstar, CHORUS and Maritime Launch

Beyond quarterly numbers, 2025 has seen several moves that reshape MDA’s strategic position.

6.1 Globalstar: C$1.1 Billion Contract and Some Growing Pains

In February 2025, MDA announced it had expanded its contract with Globalstar to develop the next generation of low‑Earth‑orbit satellites, bringing the total contract value to about C$1.1 billion. ^[28]

MDA will build more than 50 advanced digital satellites for Globalstar.
The expanded deal added about C$750 million to MDA’s Q1 2025 backlog, on top of roughly C$350 million booked when the agreement was first announced in late 2023. ^[29]

However, as Via Satellite reported, both the Globalstar constellation and MDA’s own CHORUS EO constellation are facing supply‑chain‑related delays, pushing some launches into late 2026 and leading to discussions around liquidated damages and supplier performance. ^[30]

The upside: the size of the Globalstar deal underpins years of revenue, while the delays highlight that execution risk is real and can feed volatility.

6.2 CHORUS: MDA’s Next‑Gen SAR Constellation

CHORUS is MDA’s planned next‑generation Earth‑observation constellation, designed as a successor to RADARSAT, combining advanced SAR with other sensors. ^[31]

In Q3, MDA demonstrated an “industry‑first satellite digital beam‑forming capability” on its MDA AURORA™ payload technology—key for broadband and 5G‑from‑space applications. ^[32]
Supply‑chain delays have pushed CHORUS’s launch window to late 2026, but management emphasises that they have identified solutions and are moving forward. ^[33]

6.3 Investment in Maritime Launch and Canada’s Sovereign Launch Capability

On November 3, 2025, MDA announced a C$10 million equity investment in Maritime Launch Services, developer of Spaceport Nova Scotia, at C$0.223 per share. ^[34]

The deal makes MDA both an equity owner and a strategic/operational partner.
The goal is to help establish Canada’s first commercial orbital launch complex and create a “ground‑to‑orbit” domestic value chain. ^[35]

For investors, this move is more about optionality and strategic positioning than near‑term profit, but it aligns tightly with Ottawa’s push for sovereign space capabilities—the same theme underpinning today’s RADARSAT contract. ^[36]

7. Credit Rating and Balance Sheet: S&P Weighs In

On December 3, 2025, S&P Global Ratings issued a research update assigning MDA Space a ‘BB‑’ long‑term issuer credit rating with a Stable outlook, and rating its proposed unsecured notes ‘B’ with a recovery rating of ‘6’. ^[37]

S&P highlighted that:

The company’s C$4.4 billion backlog (as of September 30, 2025) is “highly concentrated” among a few major customers, which can amplify the impact of any single contract loss. ^[38]
At the same time, MDA has modest leverage, as reflected in its 0.3× net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio, giving it flexibility to manage cycles. ^[39]

This is not an investment‑grade rating, but for a fast‑growing space‑technology mid‑cap, a BB‑/Stable profile is consistent with being sub‑investment‑grade but fundamentally sound, in S&P’s framework.

8. Analyst and Market Views: From “Should You Sell?” to “Hidden Gem”

The volatility around the EchoStar cancellation triggered a flurry of analyst and media commentary.

8.1 Desjardins: Contract Loss “Politically Driven,” Pullback a Buying Opportunity

A September note summarized by Cantech Letter reported that Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier: ^[40]

Cut his target price from C$56 to C$43 after the EchoStar cancellation;
Maintained a Buy rating, arguing the market reaction was overdone;
Described the decision as appearing “politically driven” given EchoStar’s spectrum sale to SpaceX, rather than a reflection of MDA’s capabilities;
Noted that MDA expects to be fully compensated under the contract, and that the work already done accelerated a 5G‑compliant satellite design that strengthens MDA’s AURORA direct‑to‑device offering;
Pointed to a C$13 billion constellation pipeline, with another possible award within 12 months.

At the time, the average Street target was around C$43.86, reinforcing the idea that analysts saw upside from the post‑shock levels. ^[41]

8.2 Institutional Investor View: “This Investor Loves MDA Space”

In late October, Cantech Letter highlighted comments from Brian Madden, CIO of First Avenue Investment Counsel, who said his firm bought MDA on the EchoStar dip and remains bullish. ^[42]

Key points from his appearance on BNN Bloomberg:

MDA has actually been operating for about 55 years, despite its relatively recent relisting.
It is a leading Canadian space‑technology company manufacturing LEO satellites, exposed to both telecom/mobility and defence, two structurally growing markets.
The order backlog had compounded at about 54% annually since 2020, and management itself is targeting 25–30% revenue growth over the next few years, driven by a pipeline over C$20 billion.
Even after its run, he viewed MDA as trading at roughly 12× enterprise value to EBITDA, which he called “a fairly undemanding multiple” given the growth profile.
At that point, the shares were around C$34.17, up 67% over 12 months and 151% over five years; Street consensus showed 7 Buys, 1 Hold, with an average target of C$43.56. ^[43]

8.3 Recent Bullish Takes: “Hidden Gem” and “Strong Buy Opportunity”

More recently:

A December 2 article on NAI500 described MDA as a “beaten‑down Canadian space stock” whose share price has dropped by more than 50%, but whose operational performance is “firing on all cylinders” with 45% Q3 revenue growth and a C$4.4 billion backlog. ^[44]
A November 11 piece on Seeking Alpha argued that the SpaceX‑related contract shock has left MDA trading at an undervaluation that could imply around 60‑plus percent upside, characterising the situation as a “strong buy opportunity” for long‑term investors who can stomach volatility. ^[45]

8.4 Consensus Forecasts

According to MarketBeat, as of early December: ^[46]

7 analysts cover MDA, with 6 Buy and 1 Strong Buy ratings;
The consensus 12‑month target implies roughly 50–55% upside from recent prices;
Other platforms like Fintel and TipRanks report a broadly similar target range in the mid‑C$30s to around C$50. ^[47]

Of course, price targets are not guarantees, but the skew of analyst opinion remains notably positive even after a year filled with shocks.

9. Tariffs, Trade and the Macro Backdrop

The macro story around MDA involves more than just satellite orders. A Wall Street Journal piece earlier this year profiled how the company sees limited exposure to U.S. tariff risk: ^[48]

About 90% of its C$4.39 billion backlog is outside the United States.
Only around 25% of its suppliers are U.S.‑based, according to CEO Mike Greenley.
Management said tariffs “come and go” and haven’t deterred customers or slowed its expansion plans.

At the same time:

MDA continues to secure major Canadian government work (e.g., Canadarm3, RADARSAT and RCM replenishment); ^[49]
It is expanding in Europe and the U.S., targeting both commercial and defence customers; ^[50]
The global space‑economy TAM is frequently cited in the trillions, giving context to management’s ambitions.

Macro turbulence can still impact valuation multiples, but the contract mix and geographic diversity reduce the risk that any one country’s trade policy will derail the story.

10. Risks You Can’t Ignore

For a stock that some commentators say you can “buy and hold forever,” it’s important to be clear about what could go wrong.

10.1 Customer and Contract Concentration

S&P explicitly warns that MDA’s backlog is highly concentrated, with a few big customers accounting for a large share of future revenue. ^[51]

We’ve already seen what that means in practice:

The EchoStar cancellation wiped C$1.8 billion from the pipeline and knocked 25% off the share price in a single session. ^[52]

Future contract losses, award delays or customer‑specific financial issues (e.g., at Globalstar or others) could have outsized short‑term impact.

10.2 Execution and Supply‑Chain Risk

Large, complex constellations and robotics programs are hard to deliver on time and on budget. The Q3 commentary and Via Satellite article both flag:

Supply‑chain delays affecting Globalstar’s constellation and CHORUS, pushing launches into 2026;
Ongoing discussions about liquidated damages with customers and suppliers. ^[53]

Even when long‑term economics remain attractive, such issues can:

Temporarily hit margins and cash flow;
Create headline risk that spooks the market.

10.3 Regulatory & Tariff Exposure

While MDA currently sees tariffs as manageable, its own Q3 outlook explicitly notes that 2025 guidance does not factor in potential tariff impacts, leaving exposure if conditions worsen. ^[54]

Space and defence contracts also inherently carry policy and regulatory risk, especially when multiple governments and security‑sensitive technologies are involved.

10.4 Financing and Credit Risk

The BB‑ (Stable) rating from S&P is solid by high‑yield standards, and current leverage is low, but:

Any significant acquisition, cost overrun or contract dispute could raise leverage;
Credit markets might demand higher yields from cyclical or space‑related names in stressed macro scenarios. ^[55]

11. So Is MDA Space a “Buy and Hold Forever” Stock?

Putting it all together:

The bull case

Operational momentum is strong: double‑digit revenue growth, expanding EBITDA, and rising EPS; ^[56]
Backlog and pipeline are huge: a C$4.4 billion backlog plus a multi‑billion‑dollar constellation pipeline provide multi‑year revenue visibility; ^[57]
Strategic positioning is excellent: central to Canada’s space strategy (Canadarm3, RADARSAT+, sovereign launch), while also serving global commercial customers like Globalstar and Telesat; ^[58]
Valuation looks attractive: after a >50% drawdown, the stock trades at what multiple observers describe as undemanding EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples, with Street targets implying meaningful upside. ^[59]

The bear (or at least cautious) case

Revenue and profit are tied tightly to a handful of large, complex programs;
Contract cancellations, delays or regulatory surprises can hammer the stock overnight;
The shares will likely remain volatile, even if the long‑term trend is up.

For investors looking at MDA as a potential “buy and hold forever” candidate, the key questions are:

Can you tolerate large price swings driven by contract headlines?
Do you believe in the long‑term growth of the space economy and MDA’s ability to remain a key mission partner?
Are you comfortable with high growth plus high concentration, rather than a steadier, diversified industrial?

If the answer is yes, recent analyses—from Simply Wall St to institutional commentary and independent research pieces like those on NAI500 and Seeking Alpha—suggest that today’s beaten‑down price could represent a long‑term entry point, rather than the beginning of a structural decline. ^[60]

That said, this article is information, not personalised advice. Anyone considering MDA Space stock should:

Cross‑check the latest filings on SEDAR+ and the company’s IR site;
Stress‑test their own risk tolerance for volatility and contract risk;
Consider diversifying across multiple names in the broader aerospace and space‑technology space if they want to participate in the theme without taking single‑stock risk.

References