Coca-Cola (KO) Stock Outlook December 2025: Dividend King Faces Lawsuit Risk but Analysts Still See Upside

Data and news current through the close on December 4, 2025. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Coca-Cola stock today: price, performance and valuation

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) closed at $70.54 on December 4, 2025, down about 0.37% for the day. Intraday, shares traded between $70.45 and $71.34 on volume of roughly 8.4 million shares. ^[1]

Over the last 52 weeks, KO has traded between roughly $60.62 (low) and $74.38 (high), leaving the stock about 5% below its 52‑week peak and around 16–17% higher year-to-date in 2025. ^[2]

On a fundamentals basis:

KO changes hands at around 24× normalized earnings, according to Morningstar data. ^[3]
Beta is around 0.4, underlining Coca‑Cola’s reputation as a low-volatility, defensive consumer staples stock. ^[4]
The annual dividend is currently $2.04 per share, implying a dividend yield of ~2.9% at the latest price. ^[5]

Price performance has been solid but not spectacular:

Simply Wall St estimates 1‑year price gain around 13–14% and 5‑year price gain around 33%, excluding dividends. ^[6]
A separate analysis from Kiplinger notes that $1,000 invested in Coca‑Cola 20 years ago would be worth about $6,200 today, a 9.6% annualized total return, but still trailing a comparable S&P 500 investment (≈$7,900). ^[7]

In short: KO has delivered steady, lower‑volatility compounding rather than market‑beating growth, which is typical of a mature consumer staples name.

Fresh headlines since early December 2025

1. Landmark San Francisco lawsuit over ultra‑processed foods

On December 3, 2025, San Francisco’s city attorney David Chiu filed a 64‑page lawsuit against 11 major food companies, including The Coca‑Cola Company, accusing them of fueling a public health crisis through the sale and marketing of ultra‑processed foods. ^[8]

Key allegations:

Companies such as Coca‑Cola, Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo, Nestlé and others are accused of:
- Designing foods to be addictive
- Knowing these products contribute to obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease
- Failing to warn consumers and making misleading “healthy” claims
- Targeting children in their marketing
The city seeks to stop “deceptive” marketing and impose civil penalties, drawing a comparison between ultra‑processed food companies and “big tobacco.” ^[9]

Investor takeaway:

This lawsuit is in early stages and any financial impact on Coca‑Cola is highly uncertain. It does, however, highlight a growing regulatory and reputational risk around sugar, additives and processed foods. Potential medium‑term implications could include:

Stricter labeling or warnings on some beverages and snacks
Higher compliance and legal costs
Pressure to accelerate Coca‑Cola’s shift toward “healthier” and lower‑sugar options

So far, there has been no company‑specific guidance on the expected impact.

2. Big institutional money reshuffles positions in KO

On December 4, 2025, MarketBeat highlighted new 13F data showing that First Trust Advisors LP reduced its Coca‑Cola stake by 23.4% in Q2, selling just over 1.1 million shares. The fund still holds about 3.63 million shares valued at $256.48 million, representing roughly 0.08% of KO’s shares outstanding. ^[10]

At the same time, other large institutions have been adding or initiating positions:

Norges Bank established a new KO stake worth about $3.85 billion.
Nuveen, Wellington Management, Boston Partners and others reported sizable holdings or increases.
Vanguard Group now owns about 367.4 million shares, up 1.7% from the previous period.
Overall, roughly 70% of KO’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[11]

Investor takeaway:

Institutional ownership of ~70% underscores Coca‑Cola’s status as a core blue‑chip holding, even though some funds are trimming exposure after strong price gains. The MarketBeat piece also notes that Wall Street’s average KO price target sits near $78–79, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. ^[12]

3. Product and brand news: Diet Cherry Coke revival

Coca‑Cola also generated consumer‑facing buzz this week. A widely shared report in the UK press confirmed that Diet Cherry Coke — discontinued seven years ago — is being brought back permanently, with a U.S. relaunch in early 2026, followed by the UK. ^[13]

The decision, revealed on the Q3 earnings call, reflects persistent consumer demand for that flavor. While unlikely to move the needle financially on its own, it highlights Coca‑Cola’s strategy of:

Using data and social listening to track nostalgic or niche demand
Refreshing the portfolio with low‑ and no‑sugar variants
Leveraging seasonal campaigns such as the Coca‑Cola Christmas Truck Tour in Europe to reinforce brand loyalty ^[14]

Q3 2025: still growing, with pricing power intact

Coca‑Cola’s latest official financial snapshot is its Q3 2025 report (quarter ended September 26, 2025), released October 21. ^[15]

Headline numbers

Net revenues: up 5% to $12.5 billion
Organic revenue (non‑GAAP): up 6%, driven by a 6% increase in price/mix while concentrate sales were flat ^[16]
Global unit case volume: up 1%, with growth in Central Asia, North Africa, Brazil and the UK ^[17]
Reported EPS: up 30% to $0.86
Comparable EPS (non‑GAAP): up 6% to $0.82, beating consensus estimates of about $0.78–$0.81 ^[18]
Operating margin: about 32% on a reported basis; comparable operating margin ~31.9%, up year‑on‑year ^[19]

Category and brand highlights:

Coca‑Cola Zero Sugar volume grew roughly 14%, making it a standout performer. ^[20]
Water, sports, coffee and tea grew around 3%, while juice, dairy and plant-based beverages declined about 3%, mainly in Asia Pacific. ^[21]
Premium and value‑added brands like fairlife, Fuze Tea, Santa Clara dairy (Mexico), and sports drinks Powerade and BODYARMOR were key drivers of growth and share gains. ^[22]

Multiple outlets — including the Wall Street Journal, AP and Barron’s — framed the quarter as a classic “pricing power” story: modest volume growth, but higher prices and richer product mix pushing revenue and profit ahead of expectations while global soda volumes remain relatively flat. ^[23]

Guidance

Management reaffirmed its 2025 outlook:

Organic revenue growth:5–6%
Comparable EPS growth: about 3% versus 2024, with a currency headwind of ~5% baked in ^[24]

Free cash flow (non‑GAAP, excluding a one‑off fairlife payment) is projected at $9.8 billion or more for 2025, supporting both reinvestment and shareholder returns. ^[25]

Dividend profile: 63 straight years of increases

Coca‑Cola remains one of the world’s best‑known dividend “royalty” names.

On February 20, 2025, the board approved the company’s 63rd consecutive annual dividend increase, lifting the quarterly payout from $0.485 to $0.51 per share — a ~5.2% raise. ^[26]
That equates to an annual dividend of $2.04, up from $1.94 in 2024. ^[27]
The latest declaration sets a $0.51 dividend with ex‑dividend and record date on December 1, 2025, and payment scheduled for December 15, 2025. ^[28]

At the current share price, the forward yield is roughly 2.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s ~1.2% average yield. ^[29]

Several independent analyses expect:

Dividend growth of around 4–5% per year going forward
EPS growth in the mid‑single digits (~6% annually), leaving the payout ratio in a manageable 60–70% range ^[30]

Longer-term performance numbers reinforce the dividend story:

Kiplinger’s 20‑year calculation (about $6,200 today from a $1,000 investment) equates to 9.6% annualized, with dividends playing a huge role. ^[31]

For investors who care about income stability, KO’s record of raising the payout through recessions, inflation spikes and currency swings is a core part of the bull case.

What Wall Street and independent analysts are forecasting

1. 12‑month analyst targets: modest upside

Aggregators generally show a bullish but not exuberant near‑term outlook:

StockAnalysis reports that 13 sell‑side analysts currently rate Coca‑Cola a “Strong Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of $78.15. That implies roughly 10–11% upside from the latest price, plus the ~2.9% dividend yield. The target range runs from $70 on the low end to $83 at the high end. ^[32]
A December 2025 forecast from 24/7 Wall St. notes a median Wall Street target around $79.08 (about 8.5% upside) and a widely skewed rating split: 14 Buys, 1 Hold, 0 Sells. ^[33]

24/7 Wall St.’s house view is slightly more conservative for the next year: they project KO at $76 in 2025, or roughly 4.3% price upside, before dividends. ^[34]

2. Long‑term forecast: up to ~39% price upside by 2030 (one scenario)

The same 24/7 Wall St. analysis lays out a multi‑year roadmap:

They model normalized EPS climbing from about $3.04 in 2025 to $4.05 in 2030,
With a corresponding stock price rising from $76 in 2025 to $101.25 in 2030, a 38.9% price gain from today’s level, before dividends. ^[35]

Their thesis rests on:

Further diversification into non‑carbonated drinks (tea, coffee, dairy, water)
Heavy use of AI, data and digital marketing to optimize pricing, product mix and promotions
“Hyper‑local” product strategies tailored to specific markets
Ongoing dividend growth, with an estimated payout of about $2.56 per share by 2030 ^[36]

This is only one forecast, but it’s consistent with the idea that KO could deliver mid‑single‑digit earnings growth plus a 2–3% yield, adding up to high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual total returns if valuation multiples hold steady.

3. Valuation views: undervalued or fully priced?

There’s some debate on whether KO is cheap or expensive at ~24× earnings:

Simply Wall St recently flagged KO as “now 21% undervalued” relative to their DCF‑based intrinsic value models, citing a fair value around the high $70s. ^[37]
A late‑November Seeking Alpha article argued that KO is trading 10–15% below its historical valuation and could benefit from multiple expansion, especially after the Q3 beat and strong margins. ^[38]
Another Seeking Alpha piece is more cautious, highlighting slower revenue growth and headwinds (such as health trends and currency risk), and characterizing upside as limited from current levels despite a strong quarter. ^[39]

The consensus picture: not a bargain basement stock, but reasonably valued for a high‑quality, defensive franchise with stable cash flows.

Upcoming catalyst: Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance

Most data providers currently expect Coca‑Cola’s next earnings release (Q4 2025 / full‑year 2025) in mid‑February 2026, with several pointing to February 10–17 as the likely window. ^[40]

Consensus expectations:

Q4 EPS: around $0.56, up slightly from last year ^[41]
Investors will be watching for:
- Updated 2026 guidance on organic revenue and EPS growth
- Commentary on the San Francisco lawsuit and broader regulatory landscape
- Progress on the Coca‑Cola Beverages Africa refranchising, as bottler Coca‑Cola HBC moves to acquire a 75% stake for $2.6 billion. ^[42]

A positive surprise on earnings or a confident 2026 outlook could re‑ignite momentum in the stock; disappointments on volume growth, guidance, or legal risks could have the opposite effect.

Key risks to watch

Beyond normal macro and market risks, several KO‑specific issues stand out:

Regulatory and health‑related pressure
- The San Francisco lawsuit is a concrete sign that sugar, additives and ultra‑processed foods remain in the crosshairs of policymakers and activists. ^[43]
- California and other jurisdictions are already moving on food dyes and labeling rules, potentially increasing costs or changing formulations. ^[44]
Shifting consumer preferences
- Demand is gradually shifting toward zero‑sugar, low‑calorie and “functional” beverages, as well as the impact of weight‑loss drugs on sugary drink consumption — a risk some analysts explicitly mention. ^[45]
- Coca‑Cola is responding with products like Coke Zero Sugar, Minute Maid Zero Sugar, fairlife and premium RTD teas, but must keep innovating to stay relevant. ^[46]
Currency and international exposure
- More than 60% of revenue now comes from outside the U.S., which means foreign‑exchange swings can materially affect results even when underlying volume is healthy. ^[47]
Debt and capital allocation
- Some fundamental screens flag KO’s debt as not fully covered by operating cash flow, though the company’s cash generation is strong and largely earmarked for dividends, buybacks and strategic deals. ^[48]
Valuation risk
- Trading at roughly 24× earnings with single‑digit growth, KO is unlikely to behave like a high‑beta growth stock. If interest rates rise again or sentiment shifts away from defensives, the stock could de‑rate despite steady fundamentals. ^[49]

How all of this fits together for investors

Putting the pieces together:

Business quality: Coca‑Cola’s Q3 results show a company still able to raise prices, expand margins and grow cash flow in a tough macro environment, fueled by premium products and a vast global distribution system. ^[50]
Income profile: A 63‑year dividend growth streak, a near‑3% yield, and steady mid‑single‑digit dividend hikes make KO a classic “sleep‑at‑night” income stock rather than an aggressive growth play. ^[51]
Valuation & upside: Most analysts see 10–11% 12‑month price upside, with total returns in the high single digits annually when dividends are included, assuming 5–6% organic growth and stable margins. Longer‑term projections like 24/7 Wall St.’s imply high‑30s percent price upside by 2030 if execution and multiples cooperate. ^[52]
Risks: The San Francisco lawsuit, broader anti‑ultra‑processed sentiment, currency risk and shifting health trends are key headwinds to monitor, even as Coca‑Cola leans into zero‑sugar, premium and functional beverages. ^[53]

For long‑term, income‑focused or conservative investors, KO continues to look like a steady compounder whose main appeal is reliable dividends plus modest growth. For more aggressive investors seeking rapid capital appreciation, the relatively high multiple and mature growth profile may make it less compelling.

Either way, the next big checkpoints will be:

Any developments in the San Francisco litigation
The Q4 2025 earnings release and 2026 guidance in February
Ongoing evidence that Coca‑Cola can pivot its portfolio fast enough to stay ahead of health and regulatory trends

Make sure to consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation and portfolio mix — and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional — before making any decisions about Coca‑Cola stock.