As of the close on December 4, 2025, Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) shares finished at $100.86, down about 1.4% on the day, with after‑hours trading essentially flat around $100.83. The stock sits near the upper end of its 52‑week range of $73.31–$105.84, with a market value of roughly $250 billion, a trailing P/E around 13.3 and a forward P/E just under 12. [1]
That defensive valuation, combined with a freshly raised dividend and a packed news pipeline, is keeping MRK firmly on the radar of income investors and growth‑oriented healthcare buyers alike.
Below is a detailed, news‑ready rundown of all the major Merck (MRK) stock developments, forecasts and analyses that matter as of December 4, 2025.
1. How Merck stock looks today
At Thursday’s close:
- Price: $100.86 (‑1.38% on the day); after hours about $100.83. [2]
- Market cap: ~$250.3 billion. [3]
- 12‑month range: $73.31 (low) to $105.84 (high). [4]
- Valuation: trailing P/E ~13.3; forward P/E ~12; PEG about 1.2. [5]
- Dividend yield: about 3.3–3.4% on an annualized dividend of $3.40 per share. [6]
- Beta: around 0.3, underscoring MRK’s profile as a low‑volatility, defensive blue chip. [7]
MarketBeat notes that Merck’s P/E near 13.5 sits well below the medical sector’s high‑30s multiple, framing MRK as relatively inexpensive versus both sector and broad‑market averages. [8]
2. Today’s biggest MRK headlines (December 4, 2025)
2.1 Scotiabank lifts price target to $120
In one of the day’s most notable analyst moves, Scotiabank raised its Merck price target from $105 to $120 and reiterated a “sector outperform” rating, implying roughly 19% upside from current levels. [9]
This follows earlier positive actions:
- Goldman Sachs hiked its target to $120 and kept a Buy rating.
- Wells Fargo boosted its target to $125 and rates MRK Overweight. Ts2 Tech+1
Taken together, these calls reinforce the view that Merck’s recent rally is being driven by fundamentals, not just defensive positioning.
2.2 New bull‑case analysis: “Merck at a crossroads”
Insider Monkey published a December 4 summary of a bullish thesis from the Darius Dark Investing Substack, describing Merck as standing at a “pivotal crossroads” as it prepares for the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff. [10]
Key points from that bull case, corroborated by Merck’s own filings and earnings reports:
- Keytruda generated about $29.5 billion in 2024, roughly half of Merck’s total revenue, making the loss of exclusivity in 2028 a major risk. [11]
- Other important franchises (Lenvima, Januvia, Lynparza, Gardasil) also face patent expirations between 2025 and 2028. [12]
- Q3 2025 showed this tension clearly: Keytruda sales rose about 10% year‑on‑year to $8.1 billion, while HPV vaccine Gardasil fell 24%, largely due to halted shipments and weaker demand in China. [13]
The thesis argues that Merck’s aggressive pipeline buildout, cost‑saving initiatives and strategic M&A (Verona, Cidara) are being underappreciated relative to the perceived Keytruda cliff, leaving MRK at a discount to peers despite a strong fundamental story. [14]
2.3 Halozyme wins injunction against Keytruda SC in Germany
The most market‑sensitive development today is legal, not clinical:
- A German court granted Halozyme Therapeutics a preliminary injunction ordering Merck to halt launch activities for the subcutaneous (SC) version of Keytruda (Keytruda SC) in Germany, citing imminent infringement of Halozyme’s MDASE™ patent EP 2 797 622. [15]
- The decision is appealable, and separate nullity proceedings Merck initiated against the patent in August 2025 remain pending at the German Federal Patent Court. [16]
- Importantly, the ruling does not affect the intravenous (IV) formulation of Keytruda, which remains available to patients. [17]
Halozyme has also sued Merck in the U.S., alleging the Keytruda QLEX™ subcutaneous formulation infringes 15 patents related to its hyaluronidase‑based delivery technology. [18]
For investors, this injunction introduces execution and legal risk around one of Merck’s key tactics to defend Keytruda revenues in the late 2020s—migrating patients to faster, more convenient subcutaneous dosing.
2.4 FDA conditionally approves EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1
On the animal health side, Merck announced today that the U.S. FDA has granted conditional approval for EXZOLT™ CATTLE‑CA1, a pour‑on fluralaner solution for: [19]
- Prevention and treatment of infestations caused by New World screwworm larvae (myiasis).
- Treatment and control of cattle fever tick.
EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1 is described as first‑in‑class and the only product conditionally approved for both indications, with commercial launch targeted for Q1 2026. [20]
While animal health is a smaller contributor versus human pharmaceuticals, it provides diversified, often steadier cash flows that support Merck’s dividend and R&D budget.
2.5 Fresh looks at Merck from Zacks, Barron’s and others
Today’s flow also includes:
- A Zacks note asking whether new products can offset Keytruda’s looming loss of exclusivity, with emphasis on Winrevair, Capvaxive and other recent launches. [21]
- Barron’s commentary placing Merck among healthcare names supporting the case that biotech is healthier than many investors assume, thanks to robust pipelines and deal activity. [22]
These pieces reinforce the theme that Wall Street’s debate is shifting from “Is Merck too dependent on Keytruda?” to “Can its new growth engines ramp fast enough?”
3. Q3 2025 earnings: what the numbers say
Merck’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 30, set the backdrop for the recent rally and for today’s commentary:
- Revenue: $17.28 billion, slightly above consensus around $17.0 billion. [23]
- Adjusted EPS: $2.58 vs. ~$2.35 expected, a solid earnings beat. [24]
- Keytruda: about $8.1 billion in sales, up roughly 10% year‑over‑year and accounting for just under half of total revenue. [25]
- Gardasil: ~ $1.75 billion, down ~24% as Merck halted new shipments to China amid weaker demand, highlighting geographic and vaccine‑market volatility. [26]
Newer drugs are starting to matter:
- Winrevair (sotatercept) for pulmonary arterial hypertension delivered about $360 million in Q3 sales, up 141% year‑on‑year. [27]
- Capvaxive, Merck’s adult 21‑valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, generated roughly $244 million, beating analyst expectations by ~46% and nearly doubling sequentially. [28]
Guidance was nudged higher on earnings but tightened on revenue:
- 2025 revenue outlook: $64.5–$65.0 billion (slightly narrowed range).
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $8.93–$8.98, raised from prior guidance and above many earlier estimates. [29]
Despite the beat, the stock dipped initially on concerns about Gardasil and the narrower sales range, but November’s 20%+ rally suggests investors ultimately embraced the story of steady earnings, growing diversification and a higher dividend. Ts2 Tech+2StockAnalysis+2
4. Growth engines beyond Keytruda
4.1 Keytruda QLEX and the subcutaneous strategy
A major plank of Merck’s “life after 2028” plan is moving Keytruda into more convenient, earlier‑stage and combination settings:
- On September 19, 2025, the U.S. FDA approved Keytruda QLEX™, a fixed‑dose combination of pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa for subcutaneous injection, covering nearly all solid‑tumor indications where IV Keytruda is already approved. Administration takes roughly one to two minutes every three or six weeks. [30]
- On November 19, 2025, the European Commission approved subcutaneous Keytruda for all adult EU indications, making it the first subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor approved in Europe and offering a ~one‑minute injection by a healthcare professional. [31]
- The U.S. FDA also approved Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX, each in combination with Padcev (enfortumab vedotin), as perioperative treatment for cisplatin‑ineligible muscle‑invasive bladder cancer—an expansion into earlier‑stage disease that typically lengthens treatment duration. [32]
The Halozyme injunction in Germany now complicates this strategy in at least one major market, but doesn’t change the broader goal: keep a large share of patients on Merck‑branded, high‑value Keytruda formulations even as biosimilars arrive late in the decade. [33]
4.2 Winrevair: building a cardiopulmonary pillar
Merck is also pushing hard into cardiopulmonary disease:
- Winrevair has shown strong clinical data, including a 76% reduction in risk of clinical worsening events in the Phase 3 HYPERION trial in newly diagnosed PAH patients, according to Merck’s Q3 earnings call and subsequent publications. [34]
- The FDA recently expanded Winrevair’s indication, adding hospitalization for PAH, lung transplantation and death as components of clinical worsening events in its label. [35]
- Analysts forecast Winrevair’s sales to grow rapidly over the next several years, helping to create a second major franchise alongside oncology. [36]
4.3 Capvaxive and vaccines: where the growth is
Even as Gardasil struggles in China, Capvaxive is off to a “very strong start,” according to industry coverage: Q3 2025 sales of about $244 million beat expectations and nearly doubled quarter‑over‑quarter, with Japanese approval and pediatric trial data pointing to broader use over time. [37]
The mix of new vaccines (Capvaxive) and therapeutic biologics (CD388, Ohtuvayre) is turning Merck’s vaccine and respiratory portfolio into a meaningful contributor to post‑Keytruda growth.
4.4 Big‑ticket acquisitions: Verona and Cidara
Merck has leaned heavily on M&A in 2025:
Verona Pharma (Ohtuvayre, COPD)
- Merck agreed in July to acquire Verona Pharma for about $10 billion, paying $107 per ADS, and completed the deal in October 2025. [38]
- The prize asset is Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), an inhaled maintenance therapy for COPD approved by the U.S. FDA in June 2024—the first novel inhaled mechanism for COPD in more than 20 years. [39]
- External estimates suggest potential peak annual sales of $3–4 billion by the mid‑2030s, making Ohtuvayre a cornerstone of Merck’s new respiratory franchise. [40]
Cidara Therapeutics (CD388, universal flu)
- Merck is also moving ahead with a $9.2 billion acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics, paying $221.50 per share in cash, largely for CD388, a long‑acting antibody designed to provide season‑long flu protection in a single dose. [41]
- Mid‑stage data show 76% protection against influenza in trials, and Merck believes the commercial opportunity exceeds $5 billion annually, targeting more than 100 million eligible U.S. patients, especially older and high‑risk individuals. [42]
- The deal is expected to close in Q1 2026 and to be modestly dilutive (roughly $0.30 per share hit to near‑term EPS) as Merck invests in CD388’s ramp‑up. [43]
4.5 Alzheimer’s pipeline: MK‑2214 and MK‑1167
Merck is also building a neuroscience pillar:
- On December 1, 2025, Merck announced that MK‑2214, a tau‑targeting antibody for Alzheimer’s disease, has received U.S. FDA Fast Track Designation and that first‑in‑human data for MK‑2214 and MK‑1167 are being presented at the CTAD 2025 conference. [44]
- Phase 1 results show safety and pharmacokinetics supporting ongoing Phase 2 trials, while MK‑1167, an α7 nicotinic receptor positive allosteric modulator, is being evaluated for cognitive symptoms. [45]
These programs are early, but they signal Merck’s ambition to diversify into neurology, a space with huge unmet need and large potential payoffs for successful therapies.
4.6 New oral PCSK9 inhibitor
Another emerging asset is enlicitide decanoate, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for cholesterol lowering:
- Phase 3 data presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025 showed strong LDL cholesterol reductions with a safety profile similar to placebo. [46]
- Coverage notes the stock jumped about 8.5% on the data as investors saw the potential for a convenient oral alternative to current injectable PCSK9 agents. [47]
If approved, enlicitide could add yet another cardiometabolic leg to Merck’s portfolio.
4.7 Expanding hematology pipeline
Merck plans to present more than 20 abstracts at the ASH 2025 meeting, covering a range of hematologic malignancies. [48]
Key programs include:
- Nemtabrutinib, a non‑covalent BTK inhibitor in multiple Phase 3 trials for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma.
- Zilovertamab vedotin, an antibody‑drug conjugate targeting ROR1 in B‑cell cancers.
- MK‑1045 and bomedemstat, among others, reflecting a diversified mix of small molecules and ADCs. [49]
These data drops, while not headline‑grabbing like Keytruda, help underpin long‑term expectations for Merck’s oncology franchise beyond PD‑1 inhibition.
5. Dividend, cash returns and balance sheet
Merck has become increasingly attractive to dividend‑focused investors in 2025.
- On November 18, 2025, the board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $0.85 per share, up from $0.81—a 4.9% increase. [50]
- The dividend will be paid January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025 (the ex‑dividend date). [51]
- That implies an annualized payout of $3.40, giving a forward yield of roughly 3.3% at today’s price. [52]
Payout ratios look conservative:
- MarketBeat estimates a current payout ratio around 33–35%, with Street forecasts implying a similar low‑30s ratio on expected 2026 EPS. [53]
- Independent trackers such as Koyfin and Simply Wall St also highlight that the dividend is well covered and has been increased annually for more than a decade. [54]
This mix of mid‑3% yield, regular hikes and strong free‑cash‑flow generation supports Merck’s reputation as a core income holding in defensive portfolios.
6. What Wall Street thinks: forecasts and valuation
Across major aggregators, the picture is remarkably consistent.
6.1 Analyst ratings and price targets
- StockAnalysis: 15 analysts, consensus “Buy”, with a 12‑month average target of $110.33, about 9.4% above the latest close. [55]
- MarketBeat: rates MRK a “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $107–$108, noting that the rating mix skews heavily toward Buy/Strong Buy with only a handful of Holds. [56]
- GuruFocus: compiles 26 analysts with an average 1‑year target near $104, implying modest upside from the low $100s. [57]
In addition, recent brokerage actions include:
- Scotiabank: target to $120, “sector outperform” (today’s note). [58]
- Goldman Sachs: target to $120, Buy. Ts2 Tech
- Wells Fargo: target to $125, Overweight. Ts2 Tech+1
6.2 Valuation vs. fair value models
Beyond sell‑side targets, independent valuation models generally see MRK as undervalued to fairly valued:
- StockAnalysis: trailing P/E ~13.3, forward P/E ~12, PEG ~1.24. [59]
- Macrotrends / financecharts: spot P/E in the 11–14 range, forward P/E around 9–11, historically low compared with past years when pandemic noise distorted earnings. [60]
- Simply Wall St: argues MRK’s current P/E ~13.3 is well below an estimated “fair” P/E of about 30.5 based on its growth and margins—framing the stock as good value. [61]
- AlphaSpread: estimates a base‑case intrinsic value around $125–126 per share, about 20% above current levels, based on a blend of DCF and relative valuation. [62]
Put simply, most frameworks suggest MRK is not a deep bargain after the recent rally, but remains reasonably priced or modestly undervalued relative to its growth outlook and cash flows.
7. Institutional flows and market dynamics
MarketBeat’s latest 13F‑driven updates show that institutional investors own roughly three‑quarters of Merck’s float, underscoring its status as a core holding in large portfolios. [63]
Recent moves include:
- Guggenheim Capital LLC increasing its Merck stake by 22.6% in Q2 to over 613,000 shares (about $48.5 million). [64]
- Groupe La Française trimming its position by 34%, still holding about 46,000 shares worth $3.7 million. [65]
At the index level, MRK is influential enough in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that a sharp drop in the share price was cited in late November coverage as a key driver of a multi‑hundred‑point decline in the index, highlighting how company‑specific news can reverberate across benchmarks. Ts2 Tech+1
8. Key risks to watch
Even bullish analysts stress that Merck is not risk‑free. The main issues flagged across recent earnings coverage and independent analysis include:
- Keytruda concentration and 2028 patent cliff
- Vaccine and geographic volatility
- The Gardasil franchise is heavily exposed to demand and policy swings in markets like China, as Q3’s 24% revenue drop shows. [68]
- Execution risk in M&A and new launches
- Merck is spending nearly $19 billion combined on Verona and Cidara; returns depend on how well Ohtuvayre and CD388 achieve adoption, reimbursement and durable clinical relevance. [69]
- Similar execution risk applies to Winrevair, enlicitide and subcutaneous Keytruda, especially in light of Halozyme’s global enforcement efforts. [70]
- Regulatory and legal headwinds
- Short‑term valuation and technical risk
- After a 20%+ rise over the past month, MRK is no longer “cheap” on near‑term multiples, and several commentators note that ultra‑short‑term upside may be limited despite the favorable long‑term setup. Ts2 Tech+2StockAnalysis+2
9. Bottom line for MRK on December 4, 2025
As of December 4, 2025, the Merck story looks like this:
- Near‑term fundamentals are solid: Q3 2025 beat expectations, guidance is up on earnings, and new launches like Winrevair and Capvaxive are gaining traction. [73]
- The dividend is growing and well‑covered, with a fresh increase to $0.85 per quarter and a yield above 3%. [74]
- Pipeline and M&A are robust, spanning oncology, cardiopulmonary disease, vaccines, flu prevention and Alzheimer’s, backed by large recent deals (Verona, Cidara). [75]
- Valuation remains reasonable: a low‑teens P/E, mid‑single‑digit yield plus buybacks, and consensus price targets in the low‑$100s to $120 suggest moderate upside with defensive characteristics. [76]
- Risks are real but being actively managed: the 2028 Keytruda cliff, legal fights with Halozyme, Gardasil volatility and M&A integration all bear watching. [77]
For investors tracking MRK, today’s news flow—a higher price target, a growing dividend, a legal setback in Germany and continued evidence of pipeline depth—reinforces the central narrative: Merck is in the middle of a high‑stakes transition from Keytruda‑centric cash machine to multi‑pillar biopharma leader, and the market is still debating how successful that transformation will be.
This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Always consider your own financial situation and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
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