Intel Stock Today: Apple Foundry Hopes, U.S. Government Stake and a Networking U‑Turn

Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) has turned into one of 2025’s wildest comeback stories. After a year of relentless headlines about U.S. government backing, Nvidia and SoftBank investments, Apple foundry rumors and an aggressive turnaround under CEO Lip‑Bu Tan, the share price has more than doubled this year and become one of the most closely watched names in big tech. ^[1]

On 4 December 2025, fresh news about Intel’s networking division and ongoing Apple chip-manufacturing speculation collided with a sharp pullback in the stock, forcing investors to ask a hard question: is there still upside left in INTC, or has the easy money already been made?

Intel Stock on 4 December 2025: Price, Volume and Recent Performance

Intel shares have been extremely volatile this week:

Today’s session (Dec. 4, 2025): Multiple data providers show Intel opening just above $43 and sliding toward the low‑$40 range by the close, a drop of roughly 8% on the day after recent double‑digit gains. ^[2]
Recent closes: Intel finished Dec. 3 at about $43.76, up from roughly $40–$40.50 at the start of the week, meaning today’s sell‑off is coming off a strong, Apple‑driven spike. ^[3]
Year to date: Depending on the source, Intel is up well over 100% in 2025—one recent piece pegs the rally around 116–118%, and some trading platforms show an even larger advance from the lows. ^[4]
Volume & attention: Intel is among the most active stocks in the S&P 500 today, reflecting intense interest from institutions, retail traders and options speculators. ^[5]

In other words: Intel is no longer a beaten‑down contrarian play. It’s a momentum name whose price has already sprinted ahead of many Wall Street models.

Today’s Big Intel Headlines

1. Intel keeps its Networking & Edge (NEX) unit after strategic review

The most concrete new development on Dec. 3–4 is Intel’s surprise decision to keep its networking and communications unit in‑house after actively exploring a sale or spin‑out earlier this year. ^[6]

Key points:

Intel reviewed options for its Network and Edge (NEX) business, including a partial sale or full spin‑off, but ultimately chose to retain it.
Management now argues that tighter integration between silicon, software and systems will strengthen offerings across AI, data center and edge computing, positioning NEX as part of Intel’s core strategy instead of a disposable asset.
Reports indicate Intel ended talks with Ericsson, which had been exploring a potential investment in the unit. ^[7]
The decision is easier now that Intel has dramatically improved its cash position through outside investment: an $8.9 billion U.S. government stake for roughly 10% of the company, plus billions more from SoftBank and Nvidia, have reduced pressure to sell non‑core businesses just to raise cash. ^[8]

For investors, the NEX decision has mixed implications:

Bullish: It suggests management believes networking is strategically important to Intel’s AI and data‑center roadmap and that balance‑sheet stress has eased.
Cautious: It also means Intel will keep funding a complex, competitive business rather than simplifying the portfolio.

2. Apple foundry rumors: a game‑changing endorsement, years away

The other major storyline behind Intel’s rally—still very much in play this week—is speculation that Apple may tap Intel as a foundry partner for its lower‑end M‑series Mac and iPad processors starting around 2027.

Several outlets and analysts, including well‑followed Apple watcher Ming‑Chi Kuo, report that: ^[9]

Apple has signed an NDA with Intel and received an early 18A‑P process design kit (PDK).
Internal simulations reportedly look promising, and Apple is preparing to qualify Intel’s 18A process for an entry‑level M‑series SoC.
If the deal is finalized, Intel could begin shipping production chips to Apple in Q2–Q3 2027, with 15–20 million units annually—meaning roughly $1 billion in annual revenue and, more importantly, a flagship customer validating its advanced node. ^[10]

News commentary today continues to circle that theme:

Financial outlets highlight that Intel stock surged around 10% earlier this week on “Apple chip manufacturing hopes” and is still up over 100% year‑to‑date. ^[11]
Analysts caution that while Apple would be a symbolically huge win, initial volumes are modest relative to Apple’s overall chip demand and do not threaten TSMC’s dominance in the near term. TechStock²+2Tom’s Hardware+2

The market is effectively pricing in some probability of an Apple deal—and that probability is a big reason Intel trades at much richer valuations than it did just 9–12 months ago.

3. 18A and 14A: Intel’s advanced nodes under the microscope

On top of the Apple rumors, new commentary this week is sharpening the focus on Intel’s process roadmap:

A widely shared analysis from PC Gamer highlights remarks from analyst Patrick Moorhead, who calls Intel’s upcoming 14A node “the real deal” and expresses confidence that 18A, already in production, can “stack up against any production node in its class.” ^[12]
Moorhead argues that 18A’s progress de‑risks 14A, because the latter builds directly on 18A/18A‑P technology.
At the same time, Intel’s own CEO Lip‑Bu Tan has warned that 14A must secure major external customers and hit key milestones, or Intel may have to pause or cancel 14A and some related expansion projects—a reminder that execution risk is still very real. ^[13]

There’s also a dose of cold water from Intel’s CFO:

On the Q3 earnings call, CFO Dave Zinsner said 18A yields “are not where we need them to be” and likely won’t reach industry‑standard levels until 2027, meaning the most advanced node will be margin‑dilutive for some time. ^[14]

Taken together, the latest commentary paints a picture of genuine technological progress, but on a long, bumpy timeline that stretches well beyond the 2025–2026 windows many traders focus on.

4. Fresh capital, expansions and institutional buying

Beyond technology and rumors, investors are digesting several capital and capacity developments:

U.S. government, Nvidia and SoftBank stakes:
- The U.S. government is taking roughly a 10% stake in Intel for $8.9 billion, brokered as part of a broader push to restore advanced semiconductor manufacturing on U.S. soil. ^[15]
- Nvidia plans to invest $5 billion for about a 4% stake, while SoftBank has already injected $2 billion; these deals collectively delivered around $20 billion of fresh cash in 2025 alongside asset sales. ^[16]
Malaysia expansion: Intel recently announced a further MYR 860 million (about $208 million) investment in its Malaysian assembly and testing footprint, reinforcing its commitment to advanced packaging capacity. ^[17]
Institutional accumulation: A new filing today shows Guggenheim Capital boosting its Intel holdings by 24% in Q2, to about 1.25 million shares, while other large institutions—Norges Bank, Nuveen, Goldman Sachs and Price T. Rowe—have also substantially added to positions this year. ^[18]

These moves support the bullish narrative that Intel is too strategically important to fail and now has the balance sheet to fund an extended turnaround.

Earnings Snapshot: Q3 2025 Turnaround, Q4 Guidance

Intel’s Q3 2025 results, reported October 23, are the fundamental backbone of the current rally:

Revenue: $13.7 billion, up 3% year over year.
GAAP EPS:$0.90, versus a loss of $3.88 in Q3 2024.
Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.23, versus a loss of $0.46 a year ago.
Gross margin: around 40% non‑GAAP, up more than 20 percentage points year over year as cost cuts kicked in. ^[19]

Segment performance underscores where the strength—and weakness—lies: ^[20]

Client Computing Group (PCs): ~$8.5 billion, up about 5% as the PC market stabilizes and “AI PC” marketing gains traction.
Data Center & AI: ~$4.1 billion, down ~1% as Intel fights to regain server share from AMD and Nvidia.
Intel Foundry (IFS): ~$4.2 billion, down ~2% and still generating meaningful operating losses due to heavy investment and sub‑scale economics.

For Q4 2025, Intel is guiding to: ^[21]

Revenue: $12.8–$13.8 billion.
Non‑GAAP EPS: about $0.08.
Mid‑30s gross margins, pressured by product mix and ongoing foundry ramp‑up.

Consensus data compiled by Nasdaq and other providers suggests full‑year 2025 EPS will still be negative (around –$0.40 to –$0.10 depending on methodology), with a return to more meaningful profits not expected until 2026 and beyond. ^[22]

What Wall Street Thinks About Intel Stock Right Now

Despite the spectacular price recovery, Wall Street is far from uniformly bullish.

Across several major aggregators:

Average rating:
- MarketWatch lists an “Average Recommendation: Hold” with 47 ratings. ^[23]
- Some services, including MarketBeat, describe the consensus as “Reduce”, reflecting a skew toward Hold and Sell rather than Buy. ^[24]
- StockAnalysis and other platforms also show a “Hold” consensus with very few outright Strong Buys. ^[25]
12‑month price targets:
- MarketBeat: average target $34.84, based on 30+ analysts—implying low‑to‑mid‑teens downside from the ~$40–$43 recent trading range. ^[26]
- TipRanks: average $36.07, with a range of $20–$52, also implying double‑digit downside from current levels. ^[27]
- Yahoo/other feeds around the Malaysia expansion headline cite a one‑year average near $35–$36 from roughly 36 analysts. ^[28]
- StockAnalysis: average target ~$32, implying around 25–30% downside relative to this week’s peaks. ^[29]

A recent syndicated article on Yahoo Finance and Barchart bluntly notes that Wall Street expects roughly $0.56 EPS in 2026, which at a $40+ share price works out to a forward P/E near 70x—far above Intel’s historical norms and richer than many faster‑growing peers. ^[30]

Unsurprisingly, several analyses published in the last few days argue that:

The turnaround is real, but
Much of the easy upside from “deep value” levels is already behind investors, and
Intel now has to grow into its multiple by executing almost flawlessly on foundry, AI and advanced process nodes. ^[31]

Intel Stock Forecasts: What Recent Analyses Are Saying

Recent forecasts and scenario analyses span a wide range:

A TradingNEWS forecast published today highlights the 118% 2025 rally to about $43.76, and suggests that if Intel secures at least one major external foundry contract (with Apple, Qualcomm or Broadcom) and keeps gross margins above 40%, the stock could plausibly trade in the $60–$65 range in the coming years as the market re‑rates it to around 6x sales. ^[32]
Another TradingNEWS piece from November outlines a bullish 2026 case in which Intel’s stock reaches $52–$55, supported by improving EPS, strong cash reserves and renewed profitability, and labels the stock a long‑term “BUY” under that scenario. ^[33]
Quant‑driven and fair‑value models referenced by TS2 Tech and various GuruFocus tools still see Intel’s intrinsic value well below the current price, in some cases near the mid‑$20s, suggesting meaningful downside if earnings don’t ramp as hoped. TechStock²+2Investing.com+2
SimplyWall.St’s model, updated in November, projects earnings growth above 40% per year over the next few years as Intel recovers from depressed profitability, but only modest revenue growth (around 4%), reflecting the heavy lift ahead in winning share from AMD, Nvidia and TSMC. ^[34]

Put differently, the spread between bull and bear scenarios is huge:

Bearish view: Intel is a capital‑intensive, structurally challenged giant whose stock has simply run too far ahead of fundamentals—and could drift back toward the mid‑$20s to mid‑$30s if the Apple deal stalls or margins disappoint.
Bullish view: Intel is on the cusp of one of the great corporate comebacks, leveraging massive government backing, advanced nodes and marquee customers like Apple to reclaim manufacturing leadership and justify a $60+ share price late this decade.

Key Risks to Watch

Even on a day dominated by positive headlines, several material risks stand out:

Execution on 18A and 14A
- Intel itself admits that 18A yields won’t be at “industry‑acceptable” levels until 2027, which could cap margins and limit free cash flow just as capex remains high. ^[35]
- If 14A fails to land significant external customers, management has openly said it may pause or halt the node and related expansions—an outcome that would likely hit sentiment hard. ^[36]
Foundry economics and competition
- Intel is trying to break into a foundry market dominated by TSMC and Samsung, while also competing against AMD and Nvidia in CPUs and AI accelerators. ^[37]
- Even if Apple signs on, initial volumes are much smaller than TSMC’s Apple pipeline, so Intel must attract other large customers to make foundry margins work. ^[38]
Valuation risk after a huge rally
- With the stock up around 100%+ this year and trading above most published price targets, any disappointment on earnings, guidance or Apple news could trigger sharp pullbacks—as today’s nearly 8% drop illustrates. ^[39]
Strategic and political noise
- Intel is now deeply entwined with U.S. industrial policy, including a government equity stake and CHIPS Act backing, which may come with political scrutiny and conditions over time. ^[40]
- High‑profile leadership changes, layoffs and legal disputes over IP and trade secrets add another layer of unpredictability. ^[41]
Shifting institutional sentiment
- While some institutions are adding (Guggenheim, Norges Bank, etc.), others—like billionaire David Tepper’s Appaloosa—have reportedly reduced or exited Intel positions, rotating to different AI infrastructure plays. ^[42]

So… Is Intel Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell After Today’s Drop?

From today’s vantage point—December 4, 2025—Intel sits at a crossroads:

The bull case:
- Q3 showed real operational progress and a return to modest profitability.
- Intel now has massive external backing from the U.S. government, Nvidia, SoftBank and big institutional investors.
- The company is making visible strides in advanced nodes (18A, 14A) and appears closer than ever to landing Apple as a foundry customer, which would be a powerful validation even if early revenue is small. ^[43]
The bear (or cautious) case:
- At $40+ per share, Intel already trades above most 12‑month price targets, with some models implying significant downside. ^[44]
- Core businesses (data center, foundry) still face intense competition and uneven growth, and 18A yields won’t fully cooperate for several years. ^[45]
- Much of today’s valuation rests on unconfirmed future wins (Apple, additional foundry clients, AI share gains) that could slip in timing or never fully materialize.

Given that backdrop, it’s not surprising that Wall Street’s official stance is essentially “show me”—a cluster of Hold/Reduce ratings with targets clustered in the mid‑$30s even as the stock trades higher.

What This Means for Different Types of Investors

This article can’t tell you whether to buy, hold or sell Intel—that depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon, portfolio mix and personal financial situation. But today’s news and data suggest a few broad takeaways:

Short‑term traders: Intel has become a headline‑driven momentum stock. Big daily swings (today’s nearly 8% drop following earlier double‑digit spikes) are likely to continue as rumors around Apple, AI demand and U.S. policy ebb and flow. Risk management matters more than ever. ^[46]
Long‑term, high‑risk investors: If you believe Intel will successfully ramp 18A/14A, lock in Apple and other blue‑chip foundry customers, and convert today’s political and financial support into durable technology leadership, then INTC remains a high‑beta bet on a historic manufacturing turnaround.
Valuation‑sensitive or conservative investors: With the stock trading at what some analysts call a “sky‑high” forward P/E based on modest near‑term EPS, and consensus targets below the current price, caution and position sizing are crucial. ^[47]

Whatever your stance, the key catalysts to watch from here are:

The next earnings report and updated guidance for 2026.
Any formal confirmation or denial of an Apple foundry deal.
Concrete data on 18A yields and first‑wave 18A/18A‑P products (like Panther Lake).
Additional foundry customer wins or setbacks at Intel Foundry Services.
Further moves related to U.S. government, Nvidia and SoftBank partnerships, including how governance and strategy evolve around those stakes.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Intel stock (and semiconductor stocks in general) can be highly volatile. Always do your own research, review official filings and earnings materials, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.