RTX Stock Forecast for December 2025: New Billion‑Dollar Defense Deals, AWS Tie‑Up and Analyst Upgrades Explained

Updated: December 4, 2025 – Ticker: RTX (NYSE: RTX)

RTX Corporation, the aerospace and defense giant formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, is back in the market’s spotlight in early December 2025. A string of fresh contracts, a new cloud collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS), and broadly positive analyst sentiment are shaping the latest RTX stock forecast – just as the shares trade near the upper half of their 52‑week range.

This article pulls together the current RTX stock news, forecasts and analyses as of December 4, 2025, to help you understand what’s driving the price action and where Wall Street thinks RTX could be heading next. (This is informational only and not investment advice.)

RTX stock today: price action and big picture

As of December 4, 2025, RTX closed around $171.4 per share, gaining roughly 1.5% on the day, with an intraday range of about $168.7–$172.1. ^[1]

Over the last 52 weeks, RTX has traded between $112.27 and $181.31, delivering about a 42% gain versus roughly 13% for the S&P 500 over the same period. ^[2] Several data providers also show a similar 40–45% price increase and around a 50% total return when dividends are included over the past year. ^[3]

Key snapshot metrics from recent reports and market data:

Market cap: around $230+ billion ^[4]
Valuation: trailing P/E near 35–36, PEG ratio around 2.8, implying a premium to many traditional defense peers. ^[5]
Balance sheet: debt‑to‑equity around 0.58, quick ratio 0.81, current ratio 1.07, indicating moderate leverage with decent liquidity. ^[6]

In other words, RTX today looks like a large, relatively low‑beta defense stock that has already rerated higher in 2025 but continues to attract fresh catalysts.

What’s moving RTX now: contracts, cloud and defense demand

1. Pratt & Whitney wins a $1.6 billion F‑35 engine sustainment deal

RTX’s Pratt & Whitney unit has just secured a $1.6 billion “undefinitized” sustainment contract from the U.S. Department of Defense for F135 engines, which power all three variants of the F‑35 fighter jet. ^[7]

Key points from public disclosures and news reports:

The contract covers depot‑level maintenance, engineering support, repairs and spare parts for U.S. and international F‑35 operators. ^[8]
Pratt & Whitney has delivered over 1,300 F135 engines to the U.S. and 20 allied nations so far, cementing the program’s long‑term nature. ^[9]
The deal follows an earlier multi‑billion‑dollar F135 production contract awarded in August 2025, extending RTX’s revenue runway on the F‑35 platform. ^[10]

Local coverage in Connecticut underscores the economic significance: a sizable portion of the sustainment work will be done at Pratt’s facilities in East Hartford and Middletown, where the company employs more than 10,000 people, and the effort runs through late 2026. ^[11]

For RTX stock, this is important because F‑35 engine sustainment is high‑margin, recurring work tied to a fleet that will stay in service for decades.

2. RTX–Rafael joint venture lands a $1.25 billion Iron Dome Tamir order

RTX also announced that Raytheon‑Rafael Protection Systems (R2S) – its joint venture with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems – has won a $1.25 billion contract to supply Tamir surface‑to‑air missiles to Israel for the Iron Dome system. ^[12]

From company and media reports:

The contract is a direct commercial sale that includes missiles, missile kits and test equipment. ^[13]
A newly opened East Camden, Arkansas facility, built with about $33 million in capital investment, will produce Tamir interceptors for both Iron Dome and the U.S. SkyHunter® variant used by the Marine Corps’ Medium‑Range Intercept Capability (MRIC) program. ^[14]
RTX describes this as the first production contract for the R2S joint venture – a key milestone in scaling Iron Dome‑related manufacturing in the United States. ^[15]

Given heightened geopolitical tensions and Israel’s ongoing need for missile defense, this multi‑year Tamir order adds another durable revenue stream to RTX’s already massive backlog.

3. Raytheon deepens cloud collaboration with AWS for space operations

On December 4, 2025, RTX announced that Raytheon (its defense segment) has entered a strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services. The goal: to significantly improve satellite data processing, command‑and‑control and space domain awareness for defense and civil customers using AWS cloud infrastructure. ^[16]

Coverage of the announcement notes that RTX shares rose after the news, as investors welcomed the combination of Raytheon’s space and missile expertise with AWS’s cloud and AI capabilities for space operations. ^[17]

For RTX’s long‑term story, this collaboration:

Strengthens its positioning in space and cyber‑enabled defense solutions.
Taps into demand for software‑driven, cloud‑native ground systems – an area where investors often award higher valuation multiples than for traditional hardware alone.

4. Macro backdrop: defense spending and Ukraine tailwind

Beyond company‑specific news, the macro environment still favors large U.S. defense primes. A recent Zacks analysis of defense‑themed ETFs highlights continued multi‑billion‑dollar commitments to Ukraine and NATO defense spending, pointing to firms such as RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman as key beneficiaries of elevated demand for missiles, air defenses and advanced systems. ^[18]

Another MarketBeat roundup of “defense stocks to watch” for December 4 includes RTX alongside Boeing, Rocket Lab, GE Aerospace and Archer Aviation, reflecting the sector’s ongoing prominence in investors’ screens. ^[19]

Earnings and fundamentals: Q3 beat, record backlog and higher guidance

RTX’s latest earnings data provide the fundamental context behind the stock’s strong 2025 run.

Q3 2025: double‑digit growth and raised outlook

In its Q3 2025 results released on October 21:

Sales came in at $22.5 billion, up 12% year‑on‑year (13% organically, excluding divestitures). ^[20]
GAAP EPS was $1.41, while adjusted EPS reached $1.70, up about 17% versus the prior year period. ^[21]
Operating cash flow totaled $4.6 billion, with free cash flow around $4.0 billion for the quarter. ^[22]
RTX reported a backlog of roughly $251 billion, split between about $148 billion in commercial and $103 billion in defense orders – up roughly 13% year‑on‑year. ^[23]

Management raised its full‑year 2025 outlook for adjusted sales and EPS while reaffirming its free cash flow guidance, emphasizing strong demand across its missile, engines and aftermarket businesses. ^[24]

Independent commentary from outlets like Investing.com and GovConWire echoed that Q3 was a clear beat versus consensus revenue and EPS expectations, with RTX shares jumping in response and analysts updating their models. ^[25]

Q2 2025 and earlier: consistent momentum

Earlier in 2025, RTX also posted Q2 sales growth of about 9%, with particularly strong commercial aftermarket demand and solid operational performance, reinforcing the view of a multi‑quarter uptrend rather than a one‑off spike. ^[26]

Across these quarters, RTX has been investing aggressively in capacity while targeting 90–100% free cash flow conversion of net income over time – a key metric for income‑oriented investors. ^[27]

Dividends, cash returns and valuation

Dividend profile

RTX is positioning itself as both a growth and income name:

The board increased the quarterly dividend to $0.68 per share in May 2025, a 7.9% raise from the prior payout. ^[28]
The most recent declaration (October 30) confirms a $0.68 dividend, payable on December 11, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 21. ^[29]
At the current share price near $171, that annualizes to about $2.72 per share, or roughly a 1.6% forward dividend yield. ^[30]
RTX has now increased its dividend for five consecutive years, according to dividend‑tracking services. ^[31]

In Q3 alone, RTX returned about $0.9 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, and management has emphasized ongoing capital returns as part of its long‑term plan. ^[32]

Valuation check

Recent institutional filings and data providers peg RTX at:

P/E ratio around 35–36,
PEG ratio near 2.8,
Beta around 0.64,
52‑week range $112.27–$181.31, with the stock currently in the upper half of that band. ^[33]

Given the more than 40% 52‑week climb and relatively rich multiples, RTX is not a deep‑value play, but rather a quality, lower‑volatility defense compounder that investors are willing to pay up for, especially in a world of higher geopolitical risk.

What Wall Street expects: RTX stock forecasts and price targets

Analyst forecasts for RTX stock in late 2025 cluster around modest upside from current levels, with some houses seeing significantly higher potential.

Consensus targets

Different aggregators show slightly different samples, but the direction is consistent:

MarketBeat:
- 23 analysts
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$181
- Range: ~$129 (low) to $215 (high)
- Implies about 5–6% upside from a recent price around $171. ^[34]
StockAnalysis:
- 13 covering analysts
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average target: $175 (high $215, low $140)
- Implied upside of roughly 2% from the reference price used in late October. ^[35]
MarketWatch:
- Lists an average target price near $196
- Average recommendation of “Overweight” across 23 ratings. ^[36]

An in‑depth Insider Monkey analysis, published November 29, notes that over 60% of Wall Street analysts rate RTX “Buy” or better, with an average 12‑month price target around $193.8 – roughly 12% upside from the stock’s level as of November 26. ^[37]

Notable recent upgrades

Several firms lifted their RTX price targets after the Q3 earnings beat, citing strong missile demand and a robust backlog. ^[38]
BofA Securities, for example, has reportedly raised its target from $175 to $215 while maintaining a Buy rating, putting it among the most bullish houses on the stock. ^[39]
A Benzinga summary of analyst calls characterizes RTX as a consensus Buy, pointing to an average target in the mid‑$150s across a wider historical sample, with the three most recent big‑bank targets (BofA, UBS, Susquehanna) averaging about $207, implying mid‑teens upside at the time. ^[40]

In short, Wall Street’s RTX stock forecast for the next 12 months is generally positive but not euphoric: modest single‑digit to low double‑digit upside from here, with some high‑conviction targets well above $200.

Key tailwinds for RTX heading into 2026

Pulling together the latest news and data, several structural drivers support the bull case on RTX:

Record backlog and recurring programs
RTX’s $251 billion backlog, split between sizeable commercial and defense books, provides years of highly visible revenue. ^[41] Programs like F‑35 engines, Iron Dome/SkyHunter, Patriot and NASAMS missile systems, and commercial GTF engines represent long‑term franchises rather than one‑off wins.
Fresh billion‑dollar contracts in high‑priority areas
The new $1.6B F135 sustainment contract and $1.25B Tamir missile deal directly align with top U.S. and allied security priorities (F‑35 fleet readiness and Israel’s missile defense). ^[42] These contracts can support margins and earnings visibility for years.
Cloud and software‑enhanced offerings
The expanded AWS collaboration for space operations adds a software and cloud layer to RTX’s portfolio, positioning the company to capture higher‑value, digitally enabled defense work in satellite command‑and‑control and space domain awareness. ^[43]
Supportive geopolitical and budget backdrop
Elevated defense spending in the U.S., Europe and other allies – linked to the Ukraine conflict, Indo‑Pacific tensions and Middle East security – continues to funnel orders toward major defense contractors. Analyses of defense ETFs and sector flows highlight RTX as one of the core holdings benefiting from this trend. ^[44]
Attractive risk profile for some investors
With a beta under 0.7, growing dividend and strong free cash flow, RTX is increasingly being mentioned in lists of low‑volatility, “quality defensive” stocks for late‑cycle or uncertain macro environments. ^[45]

Risks investors should keep on their radar

No RTX stock analysis is complete without acknowledging the risks:

Engine reliability and operational issues (Pratt & Whitney GTF)
RTX is still managing the fallout from Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues, including accelerated inspections and parts replacements that have caused disruptions for several airline customers. Maintenance and overhaul (MRO) commentary suggests ongoing follow‑up inspections and the removal of affected parts under reduced life limits, creating operational complexity and potential cost pressure. ^[46]
New operational constraints on some P&W engines
Reuters recently reported that Airbus has imposed restrictions on takeoffs in extreme cold‑weather and icing conditions for aircraft equipped with certain Pratt & Whitney engines, while the manufacturer works on long‑term solutions. ^[47] While safety measures like these are standard in aerospace, persistent constraints could weigh on customer satisfaction and future engine selection if not fully resolved.
Labor and supply‑chain challenges
Earlier in 2025, Pratt & Whitney dealt with a machinists’ strike that temporarily affected production before a new labor agreement was reached. ^[48] Combined with sector‑wide supply‑chain pressures, this highlights continuing execution risk as RTX ramps production to meet its record backlog.
Program and customer concentration
A significant portion of RTX’s defense revenues is tied to a relatively small set of major programs – F‑35, Patriot, Iron Dome/SkyHunter and other marquee systems. Adverse changes in Pentagon or allied procurement priorities, export restrictions, or political controversy around specific deals (such as arms sales to Israel) could affect portions of the backlog.
Valuation risk after a strong run
With RTX up more than 40% over the past year and trading at a mid‑30s P/E, any disappointment – an earnings miss, additional engine issues, or geopolitical de‑escalation leading to slower orders – could trigger multiple compression even if long‑term fundamentals remain intact. ^[49]

Is RTX stock a buy now? A balanced takeaway

Based on the latest news as of December 4, 2025, RTX looks like a high‑quality, fairly fully‑valued blue‑chip defense name with:

Bullish factors

Strong Q3 beat, rising 2025 guidance and a $251B backlog spanning both commercial and defense. ^[50]
Fresh billion‑dollar contracts for F‑35 engines and Iron Dome Tamir missiles that reinforce multi‑year revenue visibility. ^[51]
Increasingly cloud‑enabled offerings via AWS that may support higher‑margin, software‑heavy business lines over time. ^[52]
A growing, well‑covered dividend (~1.6% yield) and shareholder‑friendly capital return policy. ^[53]
Broadly positive analyst sentiment, with consensus Buy/Overweight ratings and average price targets modestly above today’s price – and some high‑conviction calls in the low‑$200s. ^[54]

Caution flags

Ongoing engine reliability and operational constraints at Pratt & Whitney (especially GTF) present headline and cost risks. ^[55]
Valuation that already embeds a good portion of the good news, leaving less room for error. ^[56]
Political and program‑concentration risk inherent in any large defense contractor, particularly one heavily exposed to high‑profile systems.

For long‑term, moderate‑risk investors who want exposure to aerospace and defense with a combination of growth, dividends and relatively low volatility, RTX may remain attractive – especially on pullbacks toward the middle of its recent trading range. More aggressive traders, meanwhile, may focus on short‑term catalysts like contract announcements, earnings surprises, or options strategies tied to the stock’s relatively steady trend.

As always, your decision should depend on your risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio mix, and you should consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making any investment moves.