Ticker: NYSE: HD | Sector: Home Improvement Retail
Published: December 4, 2025
Home Depot Stock Today: Price, Performance and Context
As of the close on December 4, 2025, shares of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) finished around $351 per share, down roughly 1.9% on the day and trading well below their 52‑week high near $436. [1]
Year to date, HD is modestly negative (high‑single‑digit loss) versus a solid gain for the broader S&P 500, and the stock is down in the mid‑teens over the past 12 months. [2] In other words, Home Depot has lagged the market despite remaining one of the most profitable retailers in the index.
Key snapshot:
- Price (Dec 4 close): ≈ $351
- 52‑week range: about $326 – $436 [3]
- Market cap: roughly $350+ billion [4]
- Forward P/E: around 24x earnings
- Dividend yield: about 2.6% on an annual $9.20 payout [5]
Today’s move also coincides with a key corporate milestone: HD went ex‑dividend this morning, meaning buyers after today will no longer receive the upcoming payout.
Q3 2025 Earnings: Solid Sales, Soft Profit and a Guidance Cut
Home Depot’s recent underperformance traces directly back to its third‑quarter fiscal 2025 results, released on November 18. [6]
Headline numbers:
- Net sales: about $41.35 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales:+0.2% overall, +0.1% in the U.S. — essentially flat in real terms TechStock²+1
- GAAP net earnings: roughly $3.6 billion, or $3.62 per diluted share
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74, missing Wall Street estimates by about $0.09–$0.10 and marking at least the second consecutive EPS miss TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
Management’s explanation and updated outlook:
- Executives pointed to fewer major storms than usual, which reduced emergency repair demand in several categories.
- They also highlighted weak housing turnover and consumer caution, particularly on big‑ticket discretionary projects, as mortgage costs remain elevated. TechStock²+1
- Fiscal 2025 guidance now calls for roughly 3% total sales growth, slightly positive comps (down from ~1% growth), and an adjusted EPS decline of around 5–6% versus last year. TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
The market reaction was swift: the stock suffered its sharpest one‑day drop since early 2023 after the report and fell to its lowest level since April, according to MarketWatch’s recap of the sell‑off. [7] Since then, HD has struggled to regain momentum even as the broader market has marched higher.
Dividend Update: $2.30 Payout, 2.6% Yield and a Long Streak
Dividend investors had two important dates this week:
- Record & ex‑dividend date:December 4, 2025
- Payment date:December 18, 2025
On November 20, Home Depot’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, or $9.20 annualized, its 155th consecutive dividend payment. [8] At the current share price, that translates into a dividend yield of roughly 2.6–2.7%, depending on the source. [9]
A few more dividend facts that matter for long‑term holders:
- Growth streak: HD has raised its dividend for about 15 consecutive years. [10]
- Payout ratio: Estimates cluster in the ~60% range of earnings, leaving some room for future growth but less than in prior years. [11]
- Frequency: Paid quarterly, typically in March, June, September and December. [12]
For income‑oriented investors, the combination of a blue‑chip brand, mid‑2% yield, and long dividend history remains part of the bull case—even as earnings growth cools.
New Growth Levers: Instacart Partnership and AI Tools for Pros
While headlines have focused on guidance cuts, Home Depot is still investing heavily in omnichannel and pro‑customer tools.
Instacart Canada Partnership
On December 2, Instacart and The Home Depot Canada announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership. [13]
Key details:
- Coverage of more than 175 Home Depot stores across Canada
- Delivery in as fast as an hour via the Instacart app
- In‑store pricing for online orders, timed to capture holiday‑season home projects
The move deepens HD’s last‑mile capabilities and is aimed at both DIY homeowners and small pros who need quick access to building materials and seasonal items.
AI‑Powered Blueprint Takeoff Tool
In November, Home Depot also announced an AI‑powered blueprint takeoff solution designed to help professional customers generate materials lists and cost estimates more efficiently, promising to keep projects “on time and on budget.” [14]
Together, the Instacart rollout and AI tools illustrate how HD is:
- Doubling down on pro customers, who account for nearly half of sales
- Pushing deeper into digital and data‑driven workflows
- Trying to offset slower store traffic and weak DIY demand with higher‑value services
Controversies and Legal Overhang: ICE Raids, Protests and an Investor Investigation
Not all recent headlines have been about growth.
ICE Raids and Protests
A widely shared piece on TipRanks described new U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions at Home Depot stores in Oregon, including raids at locations in The Dalles and Warrenton that led to several detentions. [15]
According to that report:
- One raid sparked a protest of roughly 200 people outside a store.
- Some employees were reportedly instructed not to publicly discuss the events.
- HD shares slipped only fractionally on the news, suggesting limited immediate market impact.
The same article noted that all Home Depot locations will be closed on Christmas Day, with shortened hours on New Year’s Eve and reopenings at 9 a.m. on New Year’s Day, a move framed as a morale boost for employees. [16]
For investors, these episodes matter less for near‑term earnings and more for brand perception and long‑run customer loyalty.
Schall Law Firm “Fraud Investigation” Announcement
On December 3, The Schall Law Firm issued a release via Business Wire stating that it is investigating potential securities claims on behalf of Home Depot investors, inviting shareholders to contact the firm. [17]
So far:
- This is an investigation and solicitation, not a court judgment.
- No regulator has announced formal charges related to the latest earnings miss.
Such law‑firm press releases are common following sharp post‑earnings stock drops, but they do add a small layer of headline risk until the situation is clarified.
Big Money Moves: Institutions Trim and Add to HD
Fresh 13F filings published today highlight how large investors are reacting to Home Depot’s weaker share price:
- Panagora Asset Management cut its HD stake by about 80% in Q2, selling 38,091 shares and ending the period with 9,453 shares worth roughly $3.5 million. [18]
- EverSource Wealth Advisors reduced its holdings by 12%, to about 25,737 shares valued near $9.4 million. [19]
- Baird Financial Group, by contrast, increased its position by 3.2% to about 2.68 million shares, making HD its 9th‑largest holding and representing roughly 0.27% of Home Depot’s shares outstanding. [20]
Across the shareholder base, approximately 71% of HD’s float is held by institutions and hedge funds, according to MarketBeat and related data. [21]
High institutional ownership:
- Can support the stock when big funds buy dips
- But can also amplify volatility if portfolio managers rotate out of cyclical or consumer‑sensitive names
Valuation, Profitability and Balance Sheet: A High‑Quality but Not Cheap Blue Chip
Despite the stock’s pullback, Home Depot still screens as a very profitable, mature compounder:
- Net margin: around 8.8–8.9%
- Return on equity (ROE): well above 150%, boosted by leverage and buybacks TechStock²+1
- Gross margin: roughly 33%; operating margin in the low‑teens
- Debt‑to‑equity: around 3.8–4.3, reflecting an aggressive capital‑return strategy [22]
- Beta: close to 1.0, meaning HD tends to move roughly in line with the broader market [23]
From a valuation standpoint:
- HD trades around 24x trailing earnings and roughly 2.1x sales, slightly above many retail peers. [24]
- A Trefis decomposition found that between December 2024 and early December 2025, HD’s stock price fell about 15–16% even as revenue grew about 6–7%; most of the drop was attributed to P/E multiple compression rather than collapsing fundamentals. [25]
Independent quant platform AlphaSpread, which blends discounted cash‑flow and relative valuation models, currently estimates an intrinsic value near $276 per share, suggesting HD could be overvalued by about 20%+ versus recent prices in the mid‑$350s. TechStock²
That tension—elite business, less‑than‑cheap valuation—is at the heart of today’s debate on the stock.
Wall Street Forecasts: From “Strong Buy” to “Strong Sell”
Analyst and model views on HD are unusually split right now.
Consensus Price Targets
A December snapshot across major platforms shows: M1+3TechStock²+3MarketBeat+3
- MarketBeat:
- Rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Coverage: 34 analysts (≈21 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell)
- Average 12‑month target: about $404, implying low‑teens upside from the mid‑$350s.
- TipRanks:
- Consensus: “Moderate Buy” based on 18 Buys, 5 Holds and 1 Sell in the last three months
- Average target: around $409, or roughly 13% upside. [26]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- Consensus: “Strong Buy” from about 23 analysts
- Average target: roughly $424, implying high‑teens to ~20% upside.
- GuruFocus and other aggregators:
- 1‑year target medians around $401–$402, with a wide range from ≈$300 to ≈$465.
Bearish Research and Downgrades
The more cautious camp has become louder since the Q3 report:
- Zacks Investment Research recently flagged HD as facing a possible “structural demand reset”, noting three straight EPS misses and guidance pointing to negative EPS growth this year. [27]
- A recent Zacks piece also tagged HD with a “Strong Sell” rating, arguing that sluggish comps and housing headwinds could persist longer than bulls expect. [28]
- Fresh target cuts from firms like Stifel, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and HSBC have nudged price objectives into the mid‑$370s to low‑$400s, often while maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings, reflecting belief in HD’s long‑term story but more conservative near‑term expectations. MarketBeat+3TechStock²+3MarketBeat+3
On the qualitative side, two recent Seeking Alpha write‑ups illustrate the divide:
- One article rates HD a Hold, arguing that while rate cuts and a housing recovery could help in 2026, the stock will likely track the broader market at current valuations rather than outperform it. [29]
- Another calls HD “expensive” relative to rival Lowe’s, even after the pullback, pointing to flat underlying Q3 performance after stripping out acquisition‑related sales and a premium multiple versus peers. [30]
Bottom line on forecasts:
Most Wall Street analysts still expect double‑digit total returns over 12 months (price appreciation plus dividend), but a vocal minority sees elevated risk of further downside if housing and consumer spending stay weak.
What to Watch Next: December 9 Investor & Analyst Conference
The next big scheduled catalyst for Home Depot stock is its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will be webcast on the company’s investor relations site. [31]
Key topics the market will be watching:
- Housing and macro commentary
- Any signs that home turnover and renovation demand are stabilizing
- How HD plans to navigate rate‑sensitive big‑ticket categories if higher‑for‑longer rates persist
- Integration of recent building‑materials acquisitions
- Management has noted that a large acquisition contributed roughly $900 million in Q3 sales, bolstering growth despite soft underlying demand. TechStock²+1
- Digital, pro, and Instacart updates
- Early read on the Instacart Canada partnership
- Metrics around pro‑customer adoption of AI tools and online‑to‑store fulfillment
- Capital allocation and balance‑sheet strategy
- How management balances dividend growth, buybacks, and deleveraging in a slower‑growth environment
Guidance tweaks or new long‑term targets from this event could significantly re‑anchor Wall Street models and drive HD’s next leg up or down.
Bull vs. Bear: How Today’s News Lines Up (Not Investment Advice)
From a purely informational standpoint, here’s how the current setup for Home Depot stock looks going into year‑end 2025:
Bullish Arguments
- HD remains the dominant player in home improvement, with powerful scale advantages, strong margins, and a long record of returning cash to shareholders. [32]
- The Instacart partnership, AI tools for pros, and building‑materials acquisitions expand its growth runway once the housing market normalizes. [33]
- Most analysts still model mid‑teens upside over 12 months plus a 2.6% dividend yield, implying attractive potential total returns if earnings stabilize. TechStock²+2M1+2
Bearish Arguments
- Q3 confirmed a pattern of slowing earnings growth and muted comps, with management now guiding to a mid‑single‑digit EPS decline this year. TechStock²+1
- Housing turnover remains weak, and some researchers worry about a “structural demand reset” rather than just a temporary slump. [34]
- Quant models such as AlphaSpread see HD as 20%+ overvalued, suggesting limited margin of safety if earnings disappoint or the market multiple compresses further. TechStock²+1
Final Word
Home Depot enters December 2025 as a high‑quality but controversial blue chip:
- Income investors are drawn to its reliable, growing dividend and entrenched competitive position.
- Value‑conscious or macro‑sensitive investors see a stock that is not obviously cheap, with slowing earnings and housing‑related risks that may not be fully priced in.
What happens next will likely hinge on:
- The tone and detail of the December 9 Investor Day
- The trajectory of interest rates and home sales in 2026
- Whether HD can re‑accelerate profit growth while maintaining its robust capital‑return program.
Important: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Home Depot stock should do their own research, consider their personal risk tolerance and time horizon, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. pages.m1.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.stocktitan.net, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. za.investing.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. pages.m1.com, 14. www.stocktitan.net, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. pages.m1.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. pages.m1.com, 24. pages.m1.com, 25. www.trefis.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.zacks.com, 28. pages.m1.com, 29. pages.m1.com, 30. pages.m1.com, 31. www.stocktitan.net, 32. www.stocktitan.net, 33. pages.m1.com, 34. www.zacks.com
