Argan (AGX) Stock: Q3 2026 Earnings Beat, Record $3 Billion Backlog and What December 4, 2025 Means for the Forecast

Published: December 4–5, 2025 | Ticker: NYSE: AGX

Argan, Inc. (AGX) just delivered another strong quarter – and the market promptly punished the stock after hours.

On December 4, 2025, the engineering and construction group reported fiscal Q3 2026 results that beat earnings expectations, expanded margins and pushed its project backlog to an all‑time high of about $3.0 billion. Yet revenue came in below Wall Street forecasts, and AGX fell roughly 11% in after‑hours trading, even after closing the regular session near record levels. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at all the key news, forecasts and analyses released on and around December 4, 2025, and what they may mean for Argan’s stock trajectory.

1. How Argan (AGX) Traded on 4 December 2025

Regular session:
AGX closed around $356.39 on December 4, 2025, up about 1.5% on the day and not far from its 52‑week high of $399.30. ^[2]
After‑hours reaction:
As investors digested the Q3 report, the stock slid to about $315–316 in extended trading, a drop of roughly 11–11.5% from the close. ^[3]
Big picture performance:
Over the last year, AGX has traded between $101.02 and $399.30, more than tripling from its lows as investors piled into power‑infrastructure names leveraged to data centers, AI and energy transition themes. ^[4]
Short‑term momentum:
Zacks highlighted that Argan shares were up 17.85% in just one week heading into the earnings release, underscoring how crowded the trade had become before the after‑hours reset. ^[5]

In other words, expectations were high – which helps explain why a revenue miss outweighed an EPS beat in the immediate reaction.

2. Q3 Fiscal 2026 Results: Earnings Beat, Revenue Miss, Record Backlog

Argan’s fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025) headline numbers from the official Business Wire release: ^[6]

Revenue:
- $251.2 million, down 2.3% year‑on‑year (from ~$257.0m).
- Missed consensus estimates around $266–267 million, a shortfall of roughly $15 million. ^[7]
Earnings & margins:
- Diluted EPS:$2.17, up from $2.00 a year ago – about 8–9% EPS growth.
- EPS beat consensus estimates (~$2.02 or $1.82 depending on data provider) by $0.15–$0.35 per share. ^[8]
- Gross margin:18.7%, up from 17.2% – a 150 bps expansion.
- EBITDA:$40.3 million, up from $37.5 million; EBITDA margin improved to 16.0% from 14.6%. ^[9]
Profitability:
- Net income:$30.7 million, up from $28.0 million in the prior‑year quarter. ^[10]
Year‑to‑date (nine months):
- Revenue $682.6 million, up 6.4% year‑on‑year.
- EPS $6.27 vs. $3.91 a year earlier – more than 60% growth.
- EBITDA $106.8 million vs. $74.2 million. ^[11]

Why revenue fell while profits rose

Management and several research notes emphasised that revenue declined mainly because some large projects were at peak activity last year, while newly awarded contracts in the current year are still ramping through early construction phases. Higher‑margin project mix and tight cost control allowed EPS and margins to grow despite slightly lower sales. ^[12]

3. Backlog Surges to $3 Billion – and What’s in It

The standout metric in the Q3 release is Argan’s record consolidated project backlog of about $3.0 billion, more than double the $1.4 billion reported at January 31, 2025. ^[13]

Key drivers:

Two new Texas gas‑fired megaprojects added during the quarter:
- 1.4 GW CPV Basin Ranch Energy Center (Texas) – Argan’s Gemma Power Systems received full notice to proceed (FNTP) as EPC contractor for this 1,350 MW combined‑cycle plant using GE 7HA.03 turbines, with an option to add carbon‑capture. Construction is expected to run through 2028, and the full contract value entered backlog for the period ending October 31, 2025. ^[14]
- Approx. 860 MW gas‑fired facility in Texas, also added to backlog this quarter. ^[15]
Management now estimates it is under contract for roughly 6 GW of power‑generation capacity across its book of business. ^[16]
On top of U.S. gas projects, Argan’s international arm APC is building the 300 MW Tarbert Next Generation biofuel power station in County Kerry, Ireland, which will run entirely on hydrotreated vegetable oil and is designed to be convertible to hydrogen. ^[17]
As of January 31, 2025, Argan also had about $578 million of renewable‑energy projects in backlog (solar, battery storage, and biofuel), though management expects renewables to become a smaller percentage of revenue as gas‑fired work accelerates. ^[18]

Given trailing twelve‑month revenue around $915 million, the $3.0 billion backlog equates to more than three years of current sales, offering unusual multi‑year visibility for an EPC contractor. ^[19]

4. Balance Sheet Strength, Dividends and Capital Returns

Argan’s financial position remains a core part of the bull case:

Cash, cash equivalents and investments: about $726.8 million as of October 31, 2025, up from ~$525.1 million at the start of the fiscal year. ^[20]
Net liquidity (working capital):$377.3 million vs. $301.4 million nine months earlier. ^[21]
Debt:none – Argan continues to run a debt‑free balance sheet. ^[22]
Dividend:
- Quarterly dividend is $0.50 per share, up 33% from $0.375 after a 2025 hike. ^[23]
- Annualised dividend of $2.00 per share implies a yield of roughly 0.6% at a ~$356 share price. ^[24]

The company also continues modest share repurchases (treasury stock at cost rose from $105.6m to $113.6m over the nine months), but most excess cash remains on the balance sheet – giving Argan significant flexibility to pursue new projects or acquisitions. ^[25]

5. Fresh Commentary and Analysis Published on 4 December 2025

ChartMill: “Mixed” Quarter, Sharp After‑Hours Selloff

ChartMill characterised the Q3 results as “mixed”:

EPS significantly beat expectations,
revenue missed by about 5–6%,
margins expanded,
backlog hit a record $3.0 billion,
but the market fixated on the revenue miss and sold the stock down over 11% in after‑hours trading. ^[26]

The piece highlighted:

Strong margin expansion and profit growth as clear positives.
A “fortress” balance sheet with no debt and more than $700m in cash and investments. ^[27]
The backlog jump, driven by the two Texas gas projects, as the most important long‑term takeaway.

GuruFocus: EPS Beat, Revenue Shortfall, Rich Valuation

GuruFocus framed the quarter similarly – earnings strength, modest top‑line disappointment – then zoomed in on valuation and quality metrics: ^[28]

GAAP EPS of $2.17 beat expectations by about $0.37 per share.
Revenue of $251.1 million was 2–3% below the year‑ago period.
EBITDA rose and net income improved year‑on‑year.

On valuation and risk:

P/E ratio around 43, versus a historical median near 17, and
P/S ratio about 5.5, vs a median around 1.4 – suggesting the market is paying a premium multiple compared with Argan’s own history.
Institutional ownership is over 90%, signalling strong participation from large investors.
A Piotroski F‑score of 7 and a Beneish M‑score that does not flag accounting concerns support the “quality” narrative. ^[29]

QuiverQuant: Earnings Beat, Insider Selling, Analyst Targets

QuiverQuant’s earnings note echoed the core numbers – $2.17 EPS vs $2.02 consensus, $251.15m revenue vs $266.48m expected – and added colour on ownership trends: ^[30]

Over the last six months, insiders have executed 33 open‑market stock sales and zero purchases, including sizable disposals by senior executives.
At the institutional level, 231 funds added AGX, while 203 reduced positions, indicating net, but not overwhelming, accumulation. ^[31]

On the Street’s view:

QuiverQuant tracks four recent analyst price targets with a median around $342.
Recent actions include:
- JPMorgan’s Michael Fairbanks lifting his target from $315 to $370 on December 1, 2025.
- GLJ Research’s Austin Wang taking his target to $369 and moving to Strong Buy in November.
- Lake Street’s Robert Brown maintaining a Strong Buy with a $260 target back in September. ^[32]

Zacks: Short‑Term Momentum

Zacks focused on price action, flagging that AGX had rallied nearly 18% in a single week, outpacing its industry and raising the stakes heading into Q3 results. ^[33]

Other coverage on December 4

BusinessWire / StockTitan / Nasdaq: widely carried the official Q3 press release summarising the numbers and backlog. ^[34]
Nasdaq’s after‑hours earnings overview mentioned AGX among the evening’s reporters and cited a pre‑release EPS consensus of $1.82. ^[35]
Institutional flows: MarketBeat pieces around December 3–4 highlighted that Panagora Asset Management initiated roughly $12.6m in AGX while the New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its stake, underscoring active rotation among large holders. ^[36]
Options and “whale” activity: Benzinga noted unusual, largely bullish options flow in AGX and included the stock on a list of industrial names seeing big “whale” trades during the session. ^[37]

6. How Wall Street Sees Argan Now: Price Targets and EPS Forecasts

Different data providers compile slightly different analyst universes, but they broadly agree on three points:

Argan is rated “Buy” overall,
Earnings are expected to continue growing, and
At current prices, the stock trades above most published 12‑month targets.

Consensus ratings and near‑term forecasts

StockAnalysis, which tracks five covering analysts, shows: ^[38]

Average rating: Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$273.80
Target range:$150 (low) to $370 (high)
Implied downside of roughly 23% from the ~$356 regular‑session close.

On fundamentals, analysts expect:

Revenue this fiscal year: about $974 million, up ~11% from the prior year.
Revenue next year: about $1.15 billion, another 18% increase.
EPS this year: around $7.9, up nearly 29%.
EPS next year: about $9.45, implying 19% additional growth. ^[39]

Simply Wall St’s forecast data (referenced in a November analysis syndicated via Sahm Capital) sketches a scenario where revenue could reach roughly $1.5 billion and earnings about $142 million by 2028, implying annual revenue growth in the high‑teens. Their fair value estimate of roughly $262 per share suggests mid‑teens downside from recent prices and sits near the lower end of Street targets. ^[40]

Fintel’s aggregated analyst model points to an average one‑year target in the low $320s, with a range roughly $237 to $417. ^[41]

TradingView’s forecast page, drawing on FactSet data, shows a target around $331 with a high of $447 and low of $235, again implying mild downside versus the pre‑earnings close but a wide dispersion of views. ^[42]

One outlier: Stockscan’s model‑based long‑term forecast projects an average AGX price of about $130 in 2027, more than 60% below the current level, underscoring how sensitive algorithmic models can be to assumptions about mean‑reversion in valuation multiples. ^[43]

7. Valuation Snapshot After the Move

Using recent figures:

Share price (regular close): ≈ $356
TTM EPS: ≈ $8.49
Trailing P/E: roughly 42x. ^[44]

GuruFocus notes that:

This P/E near 42 is more than double Argan’s historical median (≈17x).
The price‑to‑sales ratio around 5.5x also sits well above its long‑term norm (~1.4x). ^[45]

In short:

The market is paying a premium multiple for Argan’s backlog, growth prospects and balance sheet quality.
Most 12‑month analyst targets assume ongoing EPS growth but some de‑rating in the multiple, hence their clustering below the current price. ^[46]

Whether the after‑hours pullback meaningfully changes that picture will depend on how the stock trades in the coming sessions and what additional colour management provides on the Q3 call replay.

8. Structural Growth Drivers: AI, Data Centers, Renewables and Gas

Recent coverage throughout 2025 – especially from Investor’s Business Daily – has painted Argan as a key power‑infrastructure enabler for AI and data‑center growth:

A JPMorgan upgrade earlier this year lifted AGX to “overweight” from “neutral” and raised its target from $220 to $315, arguing that Argan plays a critical but under‑appreciated role in building the new generation of gas‑fired capacity needed to power AI‑driven data centers. ^[47]
IBD features have highlighted that AGX:
- Delivered triple‑digit EPS growth in multiple quarters,
- Built a backlog approaching $1.9 billion before the latest Texas wins,
- Benefited from renewed onshoring, manufacturing, EV infrastructure and new U.S. tariff policies – all of which increase domestic power demand. ^[48]

Meanwhile, Argan’s own 10‑K makes clear that its growth is not purely about gas:

About 40% of power‑segment revenue in fiscal 2025 came from renewable‑energy projects (solar, battery storage, biofuel).
The company continues to build large solar and solar‑plus‑battery projects in Illinois and a string of grid‑stability plants in Ireland, alongside gas‑fired capacity in the U.S. and Europe. ^[49]

Put together, the medium‑term thesis many bulls articulate is:

Argan is a “picks and shovels” provider to both the energy transition and the AI/data‑center build‑out, with a massive backlog, strong balance sheet, and growing international renewables footprint – but its stock already reflects a good chunk of that optimism.

9. Key Risks Highlighted in Recent Analyses

Recent commentary – from Simply Wall St, Sahm Capital and Argan’s own filings – also underlines several important risks: ^[50]

Concentration in gas‑fired projects
- The backlog is increasingly weighted toward large U.S. combined‑cycle gas plants.
- If regulators or utilities shift faster than expected toward non‑gas generation, project pipelines could slow or individual jobs could be delayed.
Project‑execution and timing risk
- EPC contracts are large, complex and multi‑year; delays, cost overruns or disputes can compress margins.
- Backlog recognition depends on notices to proceed and customer schedules; timing mismatches can create periods of lumpy revenue.
Policy and permitting environment
- Many of Argan’s key markets (U.S., Ireland, U.K.) are in the midst of evolving energy‑transition policies.
- Stricter emissions rules or permitting bottlenecks could impact both gas and certain infrastructure projects.
Valuation and sentiment risk
- Elevated P/E and P/S multiples leave less room for disappointment.
- The cluster of insider sales over the past six months may make some investors more sensitive to any signs of slowing growth. ^[51]

10. Takeaways for Investors Watching AGX After December 4, 2025

Putting all of the December 4, 2025 news, forecasts and analyses together:

Fundamentals remain strong.
- Q3 delivered higher EPS, better margins and stronger cash generation, even though revenue dipped modestly.
- Backlog and balance sheet metrics moved decisively in the right direction. ^[52]
The “problem” is expectations, not operations.
- With the stock near all‑time highs and up almost 18% in a week, a 5–6% revenue miss was enough to trigger an ~11% after‑hours drop despite the earnings beat. ^[53]
Analysts broadly like the business but question the valuation.
- Most rate AGX a Buy,
- but average price targets from the mid‑$260s to low‑$330s sit below the pre‑earnings close, implying some expected multiple compression even as EPS rises. ^[54]
Backlog quality and project execution are now the focal points.
- With $3.0 billion in backlog and ~6 GW of projects under contract, the debate shifts from “Can Argan find work?” to “Can it deliver efficiently and on schedule?” over the next three years. ^[55]
Macro themes still favour Argan – but they cut both ways.
- AI, data‑center expansion, EV infrastructure and grid decarbonisation all support sustained power‑infrastructure investment.
- At the same time, political and regulatory changes can alter the mix between gas, renewables and other technologies faster than expected. ^[56]

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.