Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Share Price, Capital Return and Analyst Forecasts as at 5 December 2025

Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) heads into December 2025 fresh from a record profit, a A$1.7 billion capital return and special dividend, and a flurry of new analyst calls that now mostly argue the stock is fully valued or even a little stretched. ^[1]

Below is a news-style rundown of where Wesfarmers shares stand today, what just happened with the capital distribution, and how analysts see the outlook for 2026 and beyond.

Wesfarmers share price snapshot in early December 2025

Most real‑time feeds are showing Wesfarmers trading around A$81–82 per share in early December, giving the company a market capitalisation of roughly A$92–93 billion. ^[2]

Key trading stats from major data providers:

Last close (4 December 2025): about A$82.01 per share ^[3]
52‑week range: roughly A$67.7 to A$95.2, with an all‑time high near A$95.18 in August 2025 ^[4]
2025 year‑to‑date move: up around 15% from the low‑A$70s at the start of the year ^[5]
Trailing P/E ratio: ~31–32x earnings, well above the broader ASX 200 average ^[6]
Ordinary dividend yield: about 2.4–2.6% on FY25’s A$2.06 per‑share ordinary dividends at current prices ^[7]

In other words, Wesfarmers is still priced like a premium blue‑chip, not a bargain bin retailer, even after pulling back from its August peak.

FY25 results: record profit and strong retail engines

For the year to 30 June 2025, Wesfarmers delivered another record result:

Underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of about A$2.65 billion, up roughly 3.8–4% year‑on‑year ^[8]
Revenue of around A$45.7 billion, up about 3–4% ^[9]
Ordinary dividends totalling A$2.06 per share (A$0.95 interim + A$1.11 final), about 4% higher than the prior year ^[10]

The result was driven mostly by the familiar workhorses:

Bunnings grew earnings before tax by about 3.8% to A$2.34 billion, supported by steady demand for home repair and “necessity” products. ^[11]
Kmart Group lifted earnings about 9% to A$1.1 billion as value‑seeking shoppers continued to trade down into discount formats. ^[12]
Officeworks remained profitable but faced margin pressure from higher costs, with far more modest earnings growth. ^[13]

In commentary around the AGM and results, CEO Rob Scott flagged that while demand had improved as inflation and interest rates eased, cost pressures from wages, energy, supply chain and regulation remained a headwind for the group. ^[14]

A$1.50 per share capital management initiative just paid

The headline event for Wesfarmers shareholders this week is the completion of the 2025 capital management initiative:

Total distribution:A$1.50 per share, or about A$1.7 billion in aggregate ^[15]
Components:
- A$1.10 per share return of capital (capital component)
- A$0.40 per share fully‑franked special dividend (dividend component) ^[16]
Record date: 6 November 2025
Payment date:4 December 2025 – meaning the cash has effectively just hit shareholder accounts as of this week. ^[17]

Wesfarmers emphasises that:

The capital return is funded largely from asset sale proceeds (including the final Coles stake and the divestment of gas distribution businesses). ^[18]
No shares are cancelled, so the number of shares on issue is unchanged; instead, share capital is reduced and cash goes straight to investors. ^[19]
The board expects the initiative will not compromise Wesfarmers’ strong credit ratings or its ability to fund future growth. ^[20]

Layered on top of the A$2.06 in ordinary FY25 dividends, this means total cash returned in 2025 is A$3.56 per share, though A$1.10 of that is technically a capital return rather than a dividend. ^[21]

From a yield perspective:

At an ~A$81.5 share price, the ongoing dividend yield sits around 2.5%,
While the one‑off 2025 capital plus special distribution adds another ~4.4% of cash relative to today’s price, but should not be assumed to repeat every year. ^[22]

New Non‑Executive Director Equity Plan and director moves

On 3 December 2025, Wesfarmers announced a Non‑Executive Director Equity Plan (NED Plan), approved by the board to give non‑executive directors the ability to receive part of their fees in equity. ^[23]

Key points from the ASX and company filings:

The NED Plan is intended to increase alignment between directors and shareholders by facilitating regular share acquisitions.
Appendix 3G and change‑of‑interest notices lodged the same day show the first rights issued under the NED Plan, along with updated director shareholdings. ^[24]

Third‑party coverage also highlights a recent director increase in holdings, with one broker‑tracked analyst keeping a Hold rating and a price target around A$92.60 – materially above current levels and more optimistic than most other calls. ^[25]

This combination of fresh equity incentives for the board and continued insider ownership is frequently cited by bullish commentators as a supporting factor for long‑term alignment.

How the market is valuing Wesfarmers now

At current prices, Wesfarmers screens as:

A premium‑valued defensive retail conglomerate
Sitting roughly in the middle of its 52‑week range, after a sharp rally to the mid‑A$90s and then a pullback following the AGM and capital management announcement. ^[26]

Several valuation snapshots:

TradingView estimates a market cap near A$93 billion, 1‑year share price gain just over 10%, and a beta around 1.17, meaning slightly higher volatility than the broader market. ^[27]
StockLight reports a P/E of ~31.6x and a dividend yield of ~2.5% based on ordinary dividends, broadly in line with other major home‑improvement retailers on the ASX. ^[28]
MarketIndex confirms the latest dividend history (A$0.95 interim, A$1.11 final, A$0.40 special) and the December capital return, underscoring Wesfarmers’ profile as a long‑standing dividend payer with occasional large capital distributions. ^[29]

The consensus takeaway from many research houses in November and early December is that WES is not obviously cheap relative to its growth profile – which is exactly what shows up in the analyst forecasts.

Analyst forecasts: consensus says “Sell” or “Trim”, not “screaming bargain”

Street consensus

Investing.com’s compilation of 13 analysts currently shows: ^[30]

Consensus rating:Sell
- 1 Buy
- 6 Hold
- 6 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:A$80.82, implying slight downside (~‑1%) from the latest A$81.58 trading price
Target range:A$58 (bear case) to A$100 (bull case)

Separately, Simply Wall St’s “AnalystConsensusTarget” model has nudged its fair value estimate down from A$81.64 to A$81.25, effectively in line with where the stock is trading now, and labels WES about 0.9% overvalued on that basis. ^[31]

That DCF‑style analysis also bakes in:

Revenue growth expectations a little above the sector average (around 4.2%),
A modestly higher discount rate after recent macro adjustments, and
A projected 2028 share price above A$100, which, when discounted back, lands near the current level. ^[32]

Broker calls and targets

Across the broker landscape in late 2025:

Several houses tracked by MarketScreener maintain “Underweight” or cautious stances, with recent price targets in the A$70–73 range and commentary that the share‑price drop into October was “severe” but that valuation still looks “demanding.” ^[33]
Earlier in the year, Goldman Sachs shifted Wesfarmers to Buy with a target around A$78.70, citing strong growth drivers – particularly at Bunnings – for 2025 and beyond. ^[34]
A November note from Shares in Value pointed out that after a 26% year‑to‑date rally, consensus targets around A$73 implied almost 20% downside from then‑current prices, again highlighting valuation risk. ^[35]
A newly published 5 December 2025 report summarised by The Motley Fool shows one broker rating Wesfarmers as “trim” with a 12‑month target near A$79.30, effectively suggesting investors might consider taking profits rather than adding at current levels. ^[36]

On top of this, a Motley Fool Australia piece this week reviewing 15 analyst calls noted that the average target sits a touch below the current price and that some models still see potential downside towards the low‑A$60s if earnings or sentiment disappoint. ^[37]

Put bluntly: most of the Street thinks Wesfarmers is fairly valued to slightly expensive at today’s share price, with only a minority arguing for significant upside over the next 12 months.

Dividend and income angle: “stalwart”, but not the highest yielder

While the valuation debate rages, Wesfarmers continues to attract dividend‑focused investors:

A recent Motley Fool “dividend stalwart” profile highlighted Wesfarmers as offering a forecast FY26 yield around 3.9%, backed by fully franked dividends and a long history of consistent payouts. ^[38]
Another November article listed Wesfarmers among the “5 best Australian dividend stocks to buy in December”, emphasising its combination of dependable income and high‑quality brands like Bunnings and Kmart. ^[39]

That said:

The headline 2025 cash yield looks unusually fat only because of the one‑off A$1.10 capital return and A$0.40 special dividend. ^[40]
If you strip those out, Wesfarmers looks like a solid but not high‑yield income stock, with a yield in the mid‑2% range at current prices – more about reliability and franking credits than raw percentage payout. ^[41]

Business mix: why Wesfarmers trades at a premium

Wesfarmers’ premium valuation only really makes sense when you remember what’s inside the group. The company describes itself – accurately – as a diversified retail and industrial conglomerate with operations spanning: ^[42]

Home improvement and building materials (Bunnings)
Discount and department store retail (Kmart and Target)
Office and technology products (Officeworks)
Health, beauty and pharmacy distribution (Wesfarmers Health)
Chemicals, energy and fertilisers (WesCEF)
Industrial and safety distribution
A lithium joint venture (Covalent Lithium) with a mine, concentrator and refining project
Various digital and data assets, including retail media and subscription businesses

Several recent analyses stress two big themes here: Simply Wall St+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3

Cash‑generative, defensive retail:
Bunnings and Kmart have shown they can grow earnings through different parts of the cycle as customers trade down to value and continue spending on homes and essential goods.
Option value in health and lithium:
The newer health and lithium platforms are currently dragging on near‑term earnings, with the lithium joint venture, in particular, expected to post tens of millions of dollars in start‑up losses as it ramps up production. But these segments create longer‑term growth optionality linked to demographic trends and the energy transition. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

This blend of steady cash cows plus long‑duration growth projects is a big part of why many institutional investors still treat WES as a core ASX 200 holding, even if they’re not thrilled by the near‑term valuation.

Risks on the radar: costs, consumers, and politics

Recent company commentary and media coverage identify several key risks investors are watching: ^[43]

Cost inflation:
Management has warned repeatedly about rising domestic cost pressures – wages, energy, logistics, and regulatory compliance – which could squeeze margins if not offset by productivity and pricing.
Consumer spending uncertainty:
Although easing inflation and interest‑rate cuts have given households some relief, Wesfarmers remains exposed to any renewed slowdown in discretionary spending, especially on larger‑ticket items and home projects.
Lithium execution risk:
The Covalent Lithium joint venture is capital‑intensive and early in its life; delays, cost overruns or weaker lithium pricing could weigh on returns from that arm for several years before the growth thesis is fully tested.
Tax and regulatory settings:
At the AGM, Wesfarmers’ leadership openly criticised a proposed 5% cash‑flow tax on large corporations, arguing it would deter investment and add to business costs. Changes to tax or GST arrangements could alter the economics of big employers and investors like Wesfarmers over time. ^[44]

Analyst models that lean cautious on WES usually do so by raising discount rates, trimming margin forecasts, or both, which is exactly what shows up in the latest consensus valuation tweaks. ^[45]

Key dates and catalysts to watch

Looking beyond this week’s cash hit from the capital return, several events stand out for 2026: ^[46]

19 February 2026 – HY26 results (forecast):
MarketIndex lists this as the next major reporting date, when Wesfarmers will provide a detailed trading update for the first half of FY26, including how Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks are faring in the current macro environment.
Covalent Lithium ramp‑up milestones:
Any update on production volumes, costs and off‑take arrangements from the lithium joint venture could shift sentiment on the longer‑term growth story.
Dividend and capital management commentary:
With the A$1.7 billion capital management initiative now completed, investors will be watching whether FY26 brings a “back to normal” dividend pattern or whether management hints at further portfolio moves.
Board transition to new chair:
Former BHP chair Ken MacKenzie is set to replace Michael Chaney as Wesfarmers chair in June 2026, a governance milestone that may shape the next phase of capital allocation and strategy. ^[47]

What it all means for Wesfarmers shareholders

Putting the pieces together as at 5 December 2025:

Fundamentals: still strong, with record‑level profits from Bunnings and Kmart, resilient cash flows and a fortress‑like balance sheet. ^[48]
Share price: well off its August peak but roughly in line with most fair‑value estimates, after a multi‑year run that has more than doubled investors’ money over five years. ^[49]
Income: ordinary dividend yield in the mid‑2s, topped up this year by a one‑off A$1.50 per‑share capital/special distribution. ^[50]
Analyst sentiment: skewed towards “Hold/Sell”, with a modest negative skew in 12‑month target prices, reflecting stretched valuation multiples versus near‑term growth. ^[51]

For existing shareholders, the 2025 story is largely about capital return and portfolio positioning:

Those who bought earlier in the year have banked a solid capital gain plus a chunky cash distribution.
New buyers at current levels are essentially paying up for quality, accepting a premium multiple in exchange for defensive earnings, fully franked dividends and long‑run exposure to health and lithium.

For potential investors, the decision now revolves around whether Wesfarmers’ brand strength, management track record and diversification justify owning it at a valuation that most analysts describe as “full” rather than outright cheap.

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