Netflix Stock (NFLX) Today: Warner Bros Discovery Megadeal, 10‑for‑1 Split and 2026 Price Targets Explained

Netflix stock (NASDAQ: NFLX) is having one of its most dramatic weeks of 2025. As of December 5, 2025, shares are trading around $103 per share after a sharp pullback driven by:

Exclusive talks to buy Warner Bros Discovery’s film and TV studios plus HBO Max
A recent 10‑for‑1 stock split that took the share price from over $1,000 to roughly $100
Rapid growth of Netflix’s ad‑supported tier, which now reaches about 190 million monthly active ad viewers worldwide ^[1]

Below is a detailed, Google‑News‑friendly rundown of all the key news, forecasts and analyses as of December 5, 2025—plus what they could mean for Netflix stock.

1. Netflix Stock Price on December 5, 2025

Latest price: Around $103.22 per share in Friday trading, implying a market cap in the mid‑$400 billion range. ^[2]
This is the split‑adjusted equivalent of roughly $1,030 pre‑split, after Netflix’s 10‑for‑1 stock split that became effective on November 17, 2025. ^[3]

Despite the recent sell‑off, the stock is still well above its level at the start of 2025; as of late October, Netflix shares were up about 22% year‑to‑date before the latest volatility. ^[4]

A rough week: insider selling and deal jitters

On December 3, Netflix stock fell about 6.3%, closing near $102.64 after having previously closed at $109.35. ^[5]
A big part of the anxiety: a large insider sale. Co‑founder and director Reed Hastings sold about 375,470 shares at an average price of $108.43 (around $40.7 million), shrinking his stake by nearly 99%, which spooked investors. ^[6]
At the same time, markets were digesting reports that Netflix had submitted a large, mostly cash bid for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), raising concerns about leverage, integration risk and antitrust scrutiny. ^[7]

Put simply, the stock is not under pressure because the core business is weak—it’s under pressure because investors are trying to handicap a huge M&A swing plus insider selling on top.

2. Biggest Story: Exclusive Talks to Buy Warner Bros Discovery Studios and HBO Max

The defining Netflix headline of December 5 is clear: Warner Bros Discovery has entered exclusive talks to sell its film and TV studios and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix.

Deal terms (so far)

According to multiple reports:

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) has entered exclusive negotiations with Netflix to sell its movie and TV studios plus HBO Max. ^[8]
Netflix is reportedly offering about $28 per WBD share, mostly in cash, valuing the assets at roughly $70–75 billion—a premium to WBD’s recent price around $24.50. ^[9]
Netflix has also proposed a $5 billion break‑up fee if regulators block the deal, signalling it knows the antitrust risk is high and is trying to reassure WBD’s board. ^[10]
WBD is expected to spin off its cable networks (CNN, TNT, TBS, Discovery, etc.) before closing any transaction, leaving Netflix focused on studios and streaming. ^[11]

If completed, Netflix would control:

The Warner Bros film and TV studios
The full HBO/HBO Max library (including Succession, Game of Thrones, The White Lotus, The Sopranos and more)
Major franchises such as Harry Potter and the DC Universe (Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, etc.) ^[12]

That would dramatically expand Netflix’s IP and weaken a key competitor—but at a very high price.

Why the deal matters for Netflix’s business model

Analysts note that this deal would mark Netflix’s biggest acquisition ever and a strategic pivot from primarily building its own IP to owning big, non‑replicable franchises. ^[13]

Key strategic angles:

Content moat: HBO and DC franchises are “cultural infrastructure” that can’t be quickly replicated. Owning them could lock in subscribers and reduce churn. ^[14]
Eliminating a rival: HBO Max/Max is one of Netflix’s closest rivals in perceived quality; buying it removes a competitor and consolidates premium streaming. ^[15]
Synergies & bundling: Netflix has argued to regulators that combining Netflix + HBO Max into one bundle could lower prices for users vs paying for both separately, positioning the deal as pro‑consumer. ^[16]

Regulatory and political risk

Regulators and politicians are already circling:

Reports say U.S. antitrust officials and some lawmakers fear the deal would give Netflix too much power over Hollywood content and streaming market share. ^[17]
Republican lawmakers including Rep. Darrell Issa and Sen. Mike Lee have raised explicit concerns, and some reporting suggests the Trump administration is inclined to oppose a Netflix–WBD tie‑up on antitrust grounds. ^[18]
Analysts at Bank of America and others note that the buyer of WBD will control one of the most valuable content vaults in the world, making regulatory pushback almost inevitable. ^[19]

From a balance‑sheet perspective, Netflix would likely need tens of billions in financing while the deal is reviewed. Commentary points out that a prolonged DOJ/FTC review could leave Netflix paying interest on a giant bridge loan for years before knowing whether the acquisition can close. ^[20]

Market reaction to the WBD news

WBD stock: up 4–7% in recent sessions and hitting 52‑week highs as shareholders see a path to cashing out of a troubled stock. ^[21]
Netflix stock: down about 5–6% this week, including a nearly 5% drop when a binding offer was reported, and trading near seven‑month lows as investors worry that “winning” the auction may destroy value. ^[22]

Some independent equity research (including Morningstar) has argued that at almost any realistic price, a Netflix–WBD deal risks being value‑destructive once you factor in debt, integration risk and the regulatory drag. ^[23]

3. Under the Hood: Q3 2025 Earnings and Subscriber Growth

While the market obsesses over M&A, Netflix’s core business remains strong.

Revenue, profits and Brazil tax hit

For Q3 2025 (reported October 21):

Revenue was about $11.51 billion, up roughly 17% year‑over‑year and ~4% sequentially. ^[24]
Net income was around $2.5 billion, but earnings per share (EPS) of $5.87 came in below forecasts (consensus ~ $6.9) because of a one‑time $619 million tax charge related to a dispute in Brazil. ^[25]
Despite that, multiple reports highlight that operating margins were better than expected, driven by efficient content spending and growing ad revenue. ^[26]

Subscribers: 300M+ paid, global and diversified

Netflix now has about 301.6 million paid subscribers globally, with more than 190 countries served. ^[27]
A large share of growth continues to come from international markets; roughly 60% of revenue now comes from outside North America, making Netflix less dependent on U.S. saturation. ^[28]

Commentary from asset managers like Brown Advisory notes that subscriber growth was strong across all regions, content spending remained disciplined, and the company raised full‑year guidance—yet the stock still dropped after earnings due to headline risk around industry consolidation and potential tariffs on non‑U.S. films. ^[29]

4. Ads Are Becoming Central: 45% of Viewing and 190 Million Monthly Active Ad Viewers

If you care about Netflix’s long‑term valuation, you have to care about the ad business.

45% of U.S. Netflix viewing is on the ad‑supported tier

A Comscore “State of Streaming 2025” report found:

45% of Netflix U.S. household viewing hours in August 2025 took place on the ad‑supported tier, up from 34% in 2024. ^[30]

That’s a huge jump in just one year and underscores how quickly users are trading pure subscription for cheaper ad‑supported options.

Netflix introduces a new metric: Monthly Active Viewers (MAV)

In early November, Netflix unveiled a new advertising metric:

Ads on Netflix now reach more than 190 million monthly active viewers (MAVs) worldwide. ^[31]
MAV counts the number of viewers who watched at least one minute of ad‑supported content in a month, multiplied by the estimated average number of people per household. ^[32]
Netflix says its ad business just had its strongest quarter ever and expects to more than double ad revenue this year. ^[33]

Earlier in 2025, Netflix had disclosed about 94 million monthly active ad‑tier users, meaning both user count and overall reach have surged. ^[34]

Why ads matter for the stock

BMO Capital, for example, kept an “Outperform” rating and a (pre‑split) $1,425 price target, explicitly highlighting that the ad‑supported tier could more than double revenue in 2025 and become a major growth driver. ^[35]
Analysts and marketers see Netflix as an increasingly sophisticated CTV ad platform, with dynamic ad insertion rolling out across live events like WWE Raw and NFL Christmas games, and new interactive and shoppable formats coming in 2026. ^[36]

For investors, this is crucial: if Netflix can keep scaling ad impressions without ruining the user experience, it adds a second monetization lever on top of subscription price increases.

5. Pricing Power: 2025 Price Hike and ARPU Trends

Netflix also continues to flex real pricing power.

As of January 21, 2025, U.S. plan prices rose:
- Ad‑supported plan: from $6.99 to $7.99
- Standard ad‑free: to $17.99
- Premium: to $24.99 ^[37]
These hikes coincided with rapid subscriber growth and expansion into live content (NFL games, WWE, boxing), suggesting users are still willing to pay for Netflix’s content mix. ^[38]

On the revenue side:

Netflix’s global ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) rose to $11.70 in 2024, up from $10.82 in 2023, driven by price hikes, password‑sharing crackdowns and early ad monetization. ^[39]

Rising ARPU—combined with strong subscriber growth—is a big reason why many analysts are comfortable assigning Netflix a premium valuation multiple.

6. The 10‑for‑1 Stock Split: Cheaper Shares, Same Business

Netflix’s board approved a 10‑for‑1 stock split in late October:

Shareholders of record as of November 10 received nine additional shares for each share held.
Split‑adjusted trading began on November 17, taking the price from over $1,000 to around $100 per share. ^[40]
The split was framed as a way to make shares more accessible to employees and smaller investors and to ease the exercise of stock options at very high nominal prices. ^[41]

Crucially:

There are now 10× as many shares outstanding, so the company’s total market value did not change—only the price per share did. ^[42]

Analysts note that splits can sometimes boost demand from retail traders, but they don’t change fundamentals. Any sustainable rally after a split has to be justified by earnings, cash flow and growth—not just optics.

7. Wall Street Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Despite the noise, the sell‑side remains broadly bullish on Netflix.

Consensus ratings and 12‑month targets

From major aggregators:

MarketBeat (45 analysts, last 12 months):
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (32 buy/strong buy, 12 holds, 1 sell)
- Average 12‑month price target: $133.90
- Target range: $72 to $160
- Implied upside: about 29.7% from ~$103.22. ^[43]
StockAnalysis (32 covering analysts):
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: $134.09
- Range: $87.50 (low) to $160 (high)
- Implied upside: roughly 30.2% over the next year. ^[44]
Benzinga shows a historical average target of $1,240.91, reflecting pre‑split numbers (roughly $124 split‑adjusted). More importantly, the three most recent targets from Rosenblatt, Barclays and JPMorgan average $128.67, implying about 26% upside from current levels. ^[45]

Key recent analyst moves

Rosenblatt (via Investing.com) trimmed its target from $153 to $152 (post‑split) while keeping a Buy rating, citing strong fundamentals:
- Netflix trades around a 44× P/E based on forward estimates
- They model roughly 28% EPS CAGR through 2026
- The WBD deal is treated as a risk factor, not a base‑case driver. ^[46]
Barclays maintains an Equal Weight rating with a target of $110, signalling more caution on valuation and deal risk. ^[47]
JPMorgan remains Neutral with a target at $124, still above current levels but less bullish than many peers. ^[48]
BMO Capital reiterates Outperform and a pre‑split $1,425 target (~$142.50 post‑split), explicitly flagging the ad‑supported tier as a major revenue driver in 2025 and beyond. ^[49]

Overall, Wall Street’s message is: strong business, rich valuation, and a very big question mark around the Warner Bros deal.

8. Quant and Technical Models: A More Bearish Take

Not all forecasts are rosy.

The algorithmic platform CoinCodex currently classifies Netflix’s technical setup as “bearish”:

Current price used: $103.22
Short‑term forecast: mild gains, with a model pointing to about $103.96–$105.34 over the next few days (up ~1–2%). ^[50]
One‑year forecast: roughly $82.65, implying about –20.5% downside vs today’s price. ^[51]
The model highlights high volatility and a majority of bearish technical indicators (moving averages, RSI, etc.). ^[52]

These models are purely price‑based and backward‑looking; they don’t “understand” the strategic logic of a WBD deal, ad‑tier growth, or new live‑sports rights. But they do reflect the risk that, if sentiment turns, high‑multiple stocks can re‑rate sharply lower.

9. Growth Drivers: Why Many Investors Still Like Netflix

Even amid the sell‑off, there are clear bullish pillars underpinning the Netflix story.

1. Scale and global reach

Over 301 million paying subscribers, more than 700 million viewers when you include household co‑viewers. ^[53]
Revenue increasingly global, with about 60% coming from outside North America. ^[54]

This scale gives Netflix a huge data advantage on what people watch and allows very efficient amortization of content costs.

2. Ads + subscriptions: dual‑engine monetization

45% of U.S. viewing hours on the ad‑tier, plus 190 million monthly active ad viewers globally, offers massive ad inventory with precise targeting. ^[55]
BMO and other analysts believe ad revenue can more than double in 2025, adding a second leg of growth alongside subscription price increases and paid sharing. ^[56]

3. Live sports and events

Netflix is no longer “just” a library of shows and films:

WWE Raw now streams live weekly on Netflix under a 10‑year, ~$5 billion deal, adding a passionate, advertiser‑friendly audience. ^[57]
Netflix will again stream two exclusive NFL Christmas Day games in 2025, after 2024’s Christmas games delivered one of the most‑watched TV days in U.S. history. ^[58]
High‑profile live events like celebrity boxing matches have shown both the opportunity and the technical challenges of live streaming at scale. ^[59]

Live events bolster engagement, brand relevance and ad inventory, all key to justifying Netflix’s premium multiple.

4. Content engine and pricing power

Hit shows like Stranger Things, Wednesday and high‑performing films continue to drive heavy viewing hours and engagement, underpinning Netflix’s ability to raise prices without catastrophic churn. ^[60]

10. Key Risks: What Could Go Wrong for NFLX

Even bulls concede there are serious risks to the Netflix story right now.

1. Warner Bros Discovery deal risk

Regulatory risk: U.S. officials and lawmakers have already flagged concerns that combining Netflix with HBO Max could give Netflix outsized power in streaming and content licensing. A multi‑year DOJ/FTC review is very possible. ^[61]
Financing risk: A mostly cash $70–75B deal means taking on substantial debt or bridge financing. If approvals drag on, interest expense and uncertainty could weigh on earnings and the share price. ^[62]
Execution risk: Integrating HBO Max’s tech stack, content strategy and culture into Netflix, while also managing WBD’s theatrical and merchandising operations, is non‑trivial. ^[63]

If the deal fails after a long review, Netflix could be left with deal costs, bruised investor confidence and no new assets to show for it.

2. Valuation risk

Netflix currently trades around 44–46× forward earnings, based on various analyst calculations—well above most legacy media peers and even many mega‑cap tech names. ^[64]
Rosenblatt’s thesis assumes Netflix can sustain ~28% EPS CAGR; any disappointment in margins, ad growth or subscriber trends would justify a multiple contraction. ^[65]

3. Streaming competition and content costs

Competition from Disney+, Prime Video, Apple TV+, and potential combinations like Paramount+ + WBD (if Netflix loses the auction) remains intense. ^[66]
Industry reports note that streaming is maturing, making it harder to grow subscribers in core markets without elevated content and marketing spend. ^[67]

4. Governance and insider‑sale optics

Reed Hastings’ massive share sale this week—cutting his stake by nearly 99%—isn’t proof something is wrong, but for many investors it raises eyebrows when combined with a highly ambitious M&A move. ^[68]

11. Is Netflix Stock a Buy After the Pullback?

From a news and analysis perspective, here’s the snapshot as of December 5, 2025:

Business fundamentals: Strong. Mid‑teens revenue growth, >300M paid subscribers, rising ARPU, rapidly scaling ads, and a credible push into live events. ^[69]
Valuation: Premium. Consensus 12‑month targets are around $134, implying roughly 30% upside, but you’re paying ~45× earnings for that growth. ^[70]
Short‑term sentiment: Fragile. The stock is down ~6–7% in a few days, near multi‑month lows, with technical/quant models skewing bearish and macro risk (rates, tech rotation) still in the background. ^[71]
Wild card: The Warner Bros Discovery deal. If it’s approved on reasonable terms, Netflix could end up with an unmatched premium content library. If it’s blocked or heavily conditioned, or if investors decide the price is too high, the stock could see more pressure. ^[72]

Whether Netflix is a buy at ~$103 depends heavily on:

Your time horizon (multi‑year vs short‑term trade)
Your view on the WBD deal (game‑changing asset vs expensive distraction)
Your risk tolerance for a high‑multiple stock that could rerate in either direction

Nothing here is financial advice, but if you’re publishing for Google News or Discover, the fair framing today is:

Netflix remains one of the strongest businesses in streaming, but the stock has entered a higher‑risk phase where mega‑deal politics, regulation and execution could be as important as subscriber counts and hit shows.

References