As of December 5, 2025, Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT) has just delivered a landmark quarter: its first ever GAAP profit, another round of 29% top-line growth, and a fresh batch of Wall Street price targets clustered around $50 per share. Yet the stock is still trading in the low $40s and remains well below its 2025 peak, leaving investors debating whether IOT is a high‑growth bargain or a richly priced momentum story.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the latest news, forecasts, and analyses around Samsara stock as of December 5, 2025.
Samsara stock today: price, range and recent performance
Samsara shares are trading around $40–$41 per share on December 5, 2025. Recent market data show the stock at about $40.71, up roughly 4% versus the prior close, with a market capitalization near $23–23.5 billion. [1]
Key trading stats:
- 52‑week range: roughly $31.40 (low) to $61.90 (high). [2]
- Year‑to‑date performance: shares are still about 6–7% lower in 2025, even after the post‑earnings bounce, and remain well below their February all‑time high following a ~44% drawdown earlier in the year. [3]
In other words, the business is hitting record operating milestones just as the stock is still working its way back from a painful correction.
What Samsara actually does (and why it matters)
Samsara describes itself as the “Connected Operations” platform for physical industries: fleets, logistics, construction, utilities, government, manufacturing and more. Its cloud software and hardware combine:
- Fleet telematics & GPS tracking
- Video-based safety and AI dashcams
- Equipment and asset tracking
- Workflows, compliance and operations analytics
The company’s own disclosures emphasize tens of thousands of customers across North America and Europe and a mission to improve the safety, efficiency and sustainability of real‑world operations. [4]
That positioning matters because it ties Samsara’s growth to huge, traditionally analog sectors—trucking, field services, public sector fleets—rather than to purely digital end‑markets.
Q3 FY2026 results: high growth at scale and first GAAP profit
Samsara’s third quarter of fiscal 2026 (Q3 FY26), for the period ended November 1, 2025, checked almost every box growth investors care about. According to the company’s official earnings release: [5]
- Revenue:
- $416.0 million, up 29% year‑over‑year (actual and constant currency).
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR):
- $1.745 billion, also up 29% year‑over‑year.
- Large customers:
- 2,990 customers with ARR over $100,000, a record quarterly net add of 219.
- 164 customers with ARR over $1 million, with 17 added in the quarter, tying a record.
- Profitability and margins:
- First quarter of GAAP profitability: GAAP net income turned positive (about $0.01 per share).
- Non‑GAAP operating income: $79.8 million with a 19% non‑GAAP operating margin, up about 9 percentage points year‑over‑year.
- Non‑GAAP diluted EPS: $0.15, versus $0.07 a year ago and ahead of consensus estimates around $0.12. [6]
- Adjusted free cash flow margin: approximately 13%. [7]
Earnings commentary from Investing.com and other outlets notes that Samsara exceeded revenue expectations by roughly 4% and delivered its first GAAP‑profitable quarter while still growing revenue close to 30%. [8]
From a “software‑style economics” perspective, that non‑GAAP gross margin of ~78% and operating leverage (operating margin jumping to 19%) are exactly what long‑term bulls have been hoping to see. [9]
Guidance: what management expects for Q4 and full fiscal 2026
Samsara’s official Q4 and full‑year outlook, issued alongside the earnings release, sets the bar for the next few quarters: [10]
Q4 FY2026 guidance
- Revenue: $421–$423 million
- Implied 22% year‑over‑year growth (21% in constant currency).
- Non‑GAAP operating margin: ~16%
- Non‑GAAP diluted EPS: $0.12–$0.13
Full FY2026 guidance
- Revenue: $1.595–$1.597 billion
- Implied 28% year‑over‑year growth.
- Non‑GAAP operating margin: ~16%
- Non‑GAAP diluted EPS: $0.50–$0.51
Some coverage, including Barron’s and Investor’s Business Daily, characterizes the outlook as solid but slightly less explosive than the headline Q3 beat, which may explain why the stock reaction was more muted than the fundamentals alone might suggest. [11]
Wall Street views on December 5, 2025: fresh $50 targets and mixed labels
RBC, Goldman Sachs and Evercore: clustered at $50
Following the Q3 release, Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital both confirmed bullish stances: [12]
- Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating with a $50 price target, citing:
- 29% revenue and ARR growth,
- accelerating net new ARR (mid‑20s versus high‑teens in the prior quarter),
- a 19% non‑GAAP operating margin and stronger‑than‑expected free cash flow margins, and
- growing traction in emerging products and international markets. [13]
- RBC Capital raised its price target from $46 to $50 and kept an Outperform rating, highlighting:
- “Growth at scale” with 29% constant‑currency revenue and ARR growth,
- the largest‑ever Asset Tags deal,
- faster‑growing emerging products contributing meaningfully to new business, and
- accelerating momentum in Europe for the second consecutive quarter. [14]
Evercore ISI also reiterated an Outperform rating with a $50 target, pointing to a classic “beat and raise” quarter and stronger profitability metrics. [15]
Goldman’s note also leans on data from InvestingPro, which describes Samsara’s revenue growth around 30% with gross margins near 77%, but flags that the stock appears overvalued relative to one fair value model, even as analysts expect the company to be solidly profitable this fiscal year. [16]
Consensus targets and labels: “Buy” or “Hold,” depending on who you ask
Different aggregators show slightly different snapshots of sentiment:
- StockAnalysis.com (using Finnhub data) shows: [17]
- 8 analysts covering the stock,
- a consensus “Buy” rating,
- an average 12‑month price target of $46.88, with a range of $39–$53,
- implying about 15% upside from roughly $40.70.
- It also compiles forecasts for:
- Revenue this year: about $1.60 billion, up from $1.25 billion (+27.7%),
- Revenue next year: about $1.92 billion, another ~20.6% growth,
- EPS this year: turning from ‑$0.28 to +$0.48,
- EPS next year: rising to around $0.58.
- MarketBeat’s broader panel (14 analysts) currently shows: [18]
- a consensus rating of “Hold”, with
- 1 Sell, 6 Hold and 7 Buy ratings,
- an average price target around $48–$49,
- with the stock recently trading around the low $40s and a 52‑week high near $61.90.
- a consensus rating of “Hold”, with
- A recent Yahoo/Insider‑Monkey piece, “Should You Invest in Samsara (IOT)?”, references Brown Advisory’s Large‑Cap Growth Strategy, where Samsara appears as one of the portfolio’s AI‑exposed growth names, framing it as a long‑term innovation play within a broader growth strategy rather than a value pick. [19]
Before earnings, a separate preview of Q3 FY26 cited 18 analysts with an average target around $48.05, underscoring how tightly clustered most sell‑side estimates are in the mid‑ to high‑$40s even after the March drawdown. [20]
Put simply: targets have drifted up toward $50, but the label on the stock ranges from “Buy” to “Hold”, depending on how different services aggregate ratings.
Market reaction: strong quarter, cautious pricing
Despite the outstanding headline numbers, investor reaction has been surprisingly restrained:
- Immediately after the earnings release, Samsara’s stock initially jumped in after‑hours trading by about 4.3%, according to early post‑earnings coverage. [21]
- Barron’s later noted that even with record‑setting revenue, ARR and large‑customer additions, the stock slipped around 0.8% in extended trading after closing the regular session up about 4.4%. [22]
The takeaway: the market is rewarding the results, but not in a euphoric way. With the stock still down mid‑single digits for 2025 and far below its February peak, investors seem to be re‑rating the name carefully rather than chasing it.
Institutional buying vs. insider selling
Big institutional money is accumulating
Multiple filings in recent weeks show large institutions adding to Samsara:
- Sands Capital Management increased its stake by about 2.83 million shares in Q2, to more than 19.27 million shares, or roughly 3.4% of the company, worth about $767 million at the time. Samsara is now one of Sands Capital’s larger positions. [23]
- MarketBeat’s roll‑up of filings shows a long list of institutions increasing exposure—Norges Bank, Russell Investments, Korea Investment Corp, Vanguard, various pension funds and asset managers—while others, like Franklin Resources, have trimmed. Overall, about 96% of the float is held by institutions. [24]
That level of institutional ownership is characteristic of a maturing growth story that’s firmly on the radar of global asset managers.
Heavy insider selling at the same time
At the same time, founders and insiders have been selling sizable blocks of stock:
- CEO and co‑founder Sanjit Biswas recently sold 145,848 shares on December 2 at an average price of about $37.85, a trade of roughly $5.5 million, leaving him with about 12,000 shares in his directly reported position. MarketBeat notes that this transaction is part of a series of large sales since September. [25]
- Co‑founder John Bicket has also executed multiple substantial sales in recent months, including trades of more than 145,000 shares in early December and several 160,000–170,000 share blocks in October. [26]
- Across the last quarter, insiders are reported to have sold several million shares worth over $130–140 million, even though insiders still control a very large stake (around 46% of the company). [27]
Insider selling does not automatically signal trouble—it can reflect diversification or pre‑planned trading programs—but the contrast with strong institutional buying is part of the current debate around the stock.
Product and AI tailwinds: safety, efficiency and sustainability
Recent product announcements and impact reporting support Samsara’s longer‑term narrative.
AI‑powered safety platform expansion
On November 18, 2025, Samsara announced a major expansion of its AI‑powered safety platform, including: [28]
- Automated Coaching: AI‑driven driver coaching that automatically prioritizes risky behaviors, pushes low‑risk events directly to drivers for self‑review and helps managers focus on the highest‑risk cases.
- Worker Safety in the Driver App: features like one‑click SOS, live camera context and rapid alerting to help protect workers both inside and outside the vehicle.
- Plans to extend these capabilities to the Samsara Wearable, reinforcing the company’s push into safety for frontline workers beyond the cab.
These features are meant to deepen Samsara’s value proposition around risk reduction and workforce safety, potentially supporting higher pricing power and stickier customer relationships.
2025 Impact Report: ESG‑flavored proof points
In October, Samsara released its 2025 Impact Report, highlighting how customers use the platform to improve safety and sustainability: [29]
- Customers were able to prevent more than 250,000 accidents in FY25 using Samsara’s technology.
- The platform helped reduce over 3 billion pounds of CO₂ emissions and digitize more than 300 million workflows, supporting both cost savings and environmental goals.
- The company reported progress toward a net‑zero 2040 target, including a 13% reduction in carbon‑emissions revenue intensity and increased use of recycled materials in its hardware.
For investors focused on ESG and mission‑critical infrastructure, those numbers reinforce the idea that Samsara’s products can become deeply embedded in customers’ operations.
Valuation: high‑growth metrics with a premium price tag
Putting the pieces together, Samsara is now:
- Growing revenue ~28–30% annually,
- Exiting Q3 FY26 with a 19% non‑GAAP operating margin,
- Generating double‑digit free cash flow margins, and
- Forecast to move from a GAAP loss to GAAP profitability this year. [30]
At roughly $40.70 per share and a market cap in the low‑$20‑billions, consensus data imply: [31]
- A forward P/E multiple on FY26 EPS (~$0.48) in the mid‑80s,
- A price‑to‑sales ratio around 14–15x this year’s expected revenue (~$1.6 billion).
Those are premium software‑style multiples. Bullish analysts justify them on the basis of:
- Very high gross margins (~77–78%),
- Strong operating leverage,
- A long runway in massive, under‑digitized markets (trucking, construction, public sector fleets), and
- A growing AI moat, thanks to the breadth of telematics and safety data Samsara collects. [32]
More cautious voices—and some quantitative models like InvestingPro’s fair value estimate—argue that the stock screens as overvalued on traditional metrics, especially if growth decelerates into the 20% range over the next few years. [33]
Key bull and bear arguments emerging from today’s coverage
Bullish case
From the latest research notes and newsflow, the bullish narrative looks roughly like this:
- “Growth at scale” is real: Samsara is sustaining high‑20s revenue growth at a more than $1.6 billion annualized run‑rate while turning GAAP profitable and expanding margins. [34]
- Large‑customer momentum: Record additions of $100k+ and $1m+ ARR customers suggest the platform is resonating with enterprise and public‑sector buyers. [35]
- Product flywheel: New AI features (Automated Coaching, Worker Safety, expanded navigation and routing tools) deepen the moat and increase switching costs. [36]
- Structural tailwinds: Safety, fuel efficiency, compliance and sustainability pressures are not going away; connected operations look like a secular theme, not a fad. [37]
- Analyst support: Multiple major banks (Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore) now sit at $50 targets with Buy/Outperform ratings, typically implying mid‑teens to low‑20s upside from current levels. [38]
Bearish (or cautious) case
On the other side, more cautious analysts and investors point to:
- Valuation risk: A forward P/E in the 80s and mid‑teens price‑to‑sales ratio leave little room for error if growth slows or macro conditions worsen. [39]
- Guidance vs expectations: While Q4 and FY26 guidance is above consensus, it does not dramatically outpace expectations, which may explain the modest stock reaction despite record numbers. [40]
- Competitive landscape: Fleet telematics, video safety and asset tracking are crowded segments with both legacy players and newer entrants; sustaining high margins may require continuous innovation and sales execution.
- Insider selling: Heavy selling by founders can be read as a sign that insiders see better risk‑reward in diversification at current prices, even though they still own a substantial stake. [41]
Bottom line: what December 5, 2025 newsflow means for Samsara (IOT) stock
As of December 5, 2025, the story around Samsara stock looks like this:
- The business fundamentals are strong: ~30% growth, first GAAP profit, expanding margins and powerful large‑customer and AI tailwinds. [42]
- Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, with price targets clustered in the mid‑ to high‑$40s and several high‑profile firms now at $50. However, some aggregators still call the stock a “Hold”, reflecting valuation concerns. [43]
- Institutions are accumulating shares aggressively, while insiders are selling, creating a nuanced picture of conviction and risk management. [44]
- The stock itself is still below its 2025 highs and modestly down for the year, suggesting that much of the exuberant multiple has already been wrung out—but the valuation is still rich compared with many other mid‑cap software names. [45]
For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with premium valuations and the volatility that comes with them, today’s newsflow reinforces Samsara as a high‑growth, high‑quality IoT and software platform with a long runway and growing proof of operating leverage. More value‑focused or risk‑averse investors may reasonably conclude that, even after the correction, IOT remains priced for very strong execution.
As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering Samsara stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio diversification, and when in doubt, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.samsara.com, 29. www.samsara.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.businesswire.com, 35. www.businesswire.com, 36. www.samsara.com, 37. www.samsara.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. www.barrons.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.businesswire.com, 43. www.investing.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.barrons.com
