US Stock Market Today: 10 Things to Know Before the Opening Bell on December 5, 2025

U.S. stock futures are modestly higher Friday morning, with Wall Street laser‑focused on a delayed inflation report that could shape the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year and set the tone into 2026. Here’s everything to watch before the US stock market opens today, December 5, 2025.

1. Stock futures signal a cautiously positive open

As of early pre‑market trading:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up around 0.1%
• S&P 500 futures are higher by roughly 0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.3–0.4%  ^[1]

The major indices ended Thursday’s session little changed after a choppy day, but all three remain close to record territory. The Dow and S&P 500 are within about 1% of all‑time highs, while the Nasdaq is roughly 2% below its record.  ^[2]

The tone is “risk‑on but careful”: investors are willing to keep bidding up equities, but no one wants to make a huge directional bet just hours before a pivotal inflation print.

2. Today’s star: a delayed PCE inflation report

The main event is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Unusually, the data are being released more than a month late because a 43‑day U.S. government shutdown froze official statistics, creating a backlog.  ^[3]

Key expectations:

• Headline PCE (September):
  • Annual pace seen around 2.8–2.9% year over year, slightly above or in line with August’s 2.7–2.9% range  ^[4]
  • Monthly gain expected around 0.2–0.3%
• Core PCE (ex‑food and energy):
  • Forecast roughly +0.2% month‑on‑month, +2.8–2.9% year‑on‑year, essentially flat vs. August  ^[5]

Release timing:

• 9:00 a.m. CT / 10:00 a.m. ET – Personal Income & Outlays (including PCE)  ^[6]

Because this PCE print is the first major official macro data since the shutdown, and comes days before the Fed meets, it has outsized importance. If inflation looks stickier than forecast, it could dent expectations for aggressive rate cuts in 2026—even if next week’s cut is still likely.  ^[7]

3. Fed rate cut almost fully priced in—but the meeting looks contentious

Markets are overwhelmingly betting on another 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut next week:

• Fed funds futures put the odds of a cut at about 85–90%  ^[8]
• Traders also expect at least one more quarter‑point cut by mid‑2026  ^[9]

However, this is shaping up to be one of the Fed’s most contentious meetings in years:

• Up to five of the 12 voting members have publicly signaled discomfort with further cuts, citing persistent price pressures and a still‑resilient labor market.  ^[10]
• “Secondary” labor indicators—like weekly jobless claims, which recently fell to about 191,000, a three‑year low—show little sign of a sharp slowdown.  ^[11]

Bottom line: A cut next week is likely, but the path for 2026 is wide open. A hotter‑than‑expected PCE reading could lower the odds of subsequent cuts and push Treasury yields higher, pressuring high‑valuation growth stocks.

4. Bonds, dollar, gold and crypto: macro backdrop into the open

The cross‑asset backdrop heading into the bell looks like this:

• Treasury yields
  • 10‑year Treasury yield: ~4.11%
  • 2‑year yield: ~3.53–3.54%  ^[12]
  • Treasuries are on track for their worst week since June, as traders rotate back into risk assets and brace for fresh inflation data.  ^[13]
• U.S. dollar
  • The dollar index is hovering around 99, down roughly 0.5% on the week as markets lean into the Fed‑cut narrative.  ^[14]
  • The yen has firmed as the Bank of Japan signals it may hike rates later this month, pushing 10‑year Japanese government bond yields to their highest since 2007.  ^[15]
• Commodities
  • Gold is trading around $4,220–4,250 per ounce, up about 0.3–0.4% on the day.  ^[16]
  • U.S. crude (WTI) sits near $59.6–59.7 per barrel, roughly flat on the session and slightly higher on the week.  ^[17]
  • Copper has hit a record high, lifting European mining shares and reinforcing the “global reflation” narrative.  ^[18]
• Crypto
  • Bitcoin trades near $91,000–$91,200, down a couple of percent from recent highs above $92,000 and well below its record above $125,000.  ^[19]

For equity traders, firm copper and gold plus a softer dollar are broadly supportive, but higher yields and lofty valuations keep risks balanced.

5. Global markets overnight: mixed Asia, firmer Europe

Overnight trading sets a cautiously optimistic tone:

• Europe
  • The Stoxx 600 is up around 0.3%, on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, led by mining and industrial stocks that benefit from strong copper prices and optimism about Fed easing.  ^[20]
• Asia
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 1.0–1.3%, as weak household‑spending data and rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike weighed on stocks and lifted local bond yields.  ^[21]
  • Chinese equities (Shanghai Composite) gained roughly 0.7%, helped by optimism around domestic chipmakers and signs of policy support.  ^[22]
  • Broader Asia ex‑Japan benchmarks are modestly higher on the week, aided by governance reforms and renewed domestic flows into equities.  ^[23]

Global risk appetite is therefore constructive but selective: investors are leaning into pro‑growth trades, while keeping an eye on rate‑sensitive spots like Japan and U.S. tech.

6. Mega‑deal headline: Netflix’s $72 billion Warner Bros Discovery acquisition

The biggest corporate story of the morning is in media and streaming:

• Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s TV and film studios and streaming division (including HBO and HBO Max) in a $72 billion cash‑and‑stock deal, valuing Warner Bros at $27.75 per share.  ^[24]
• The combined entity would control major franchises such as Game of Thrones, Harry Potter and DC Comics, dramatically reshaping the Hollywood and streaming landscape.  ^[25]

Market reaction pre‑open:

• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) shares are up around 3% in pre‑market trading.  ^[26]
• Netflix (NFLX) is down roughly 1–2%, as investors weigh integration risk, regulatory scrutiny and the sheer size of the transaction.  ^[27]

Why it matters today:

• The deal may dominate market sentiment in communication‑services and media stocks at the open.
• It could pressure streaming competitors (like Disney and Paramount) as investors reassess who has enough scale and IP to compete.
• Regulators in the U.S. and Europe are expected to scrutinize the transaction heavily, which could keep volatility elevated in these names over the coming months.  ^[28]

7. Other key pre‑market movers to watch

Beyond Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery, several high‑profile stocks are on the move before the bell:

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – Earnings pop

• Ulta beat third‑quarter earnings expectations and raised full‑year guidance for sales and margins.  ^[29]
• The stock is up about 5–7% pre‑market, putting it on track to open above its prior record closing high around $567.  ^[30]

Takeaway: Beauty remains one of the few categories where consumers are still spending aggressively, and Ulta’s results reinforce that story.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – AI optimism vs. near‑term guidance

• HPE reported Q4 revenue of about $9.68 billion, up 14% year‑on‑year but below estimates near $9.94 billion. Adjusted EPS beat forecasts.  ^[31]
• The company issued softer‑than‑expected guidance for the current quarter, citing a temporary lull in AI server revenue as customers shift orders into the second half of the fiscal year.  ^[32]
• Shares are down roughly 9–10% pre‑market.  ^[33]

Takeaway: HPE’s results highlight how AI infrastructure demand can be lumpy, which is a theme investors may watch across the broader hardware and cloud complex.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) – Big stock offering

• SoFi announced a public offering of 54.5 million shares at $27.50 each, raising about $1.5 billion.  ^[34]
• The stock is down more than 7% in pre‑market trading, as investors price in dilution.  ^[35]

Oklo (OKLO) – Nuclear micro‑reactor play under pressure

• Nuclear technology firm Oklo has entered an equity distribution agreement allowing it to sell up to $1.5 billion in common stock.  ^[36]
• Shares fell about 6–8% in extended trading and remain under pressure heading toward the open.  ^[37]

Ulta, Rubrik, HPE, SoFi cluster in pre‑market mover lists

A broader pre‑market screen shows:

• Rubrik (RBRK) up over 19% on strong Q3 results and upbeat revenue guidance.
• Ulta Beauty up more than 5% on its beat‑and‑raise quarter.
• HPE down over 9%, and SoFi down more than 7%, both reacting to guidance and capital‑raising news.  ^[38]

These names are likely to feature heavily in early‑session volume and intraday trading setups.

Symbotic (SYM) – SoftBank trims stake

Not to be overlooked:

• Symbotic, a warehouse‑automation and robotics company, launched a 10‑million‑share offering, with 6.5 million shares sold by the company and 3.5 million by a SoftBank affiliate, in a deal of roughly $550 million.  ^[39]
• The stock tumbled in after‑hours and is trading lower ahead of the open, as investors respond to dilution and SoftBank’s decision to pare its stake.

Takeaway: The market is punishing equity offerings, especially after a strong year‑to‑date rally, which is relevant for any growth company considering fresh issuance.

8. Technical picture: S&P 500 near record, small caps catch up, Dow Theory turns bullish

From a market‑structure standpoint, today’s session starts with:

• The S&P 500 having closed within about 0.5–1% of a record high, supported by expectations of rate cuts and resilient earnings.  ^[40]
• The index is on track for its second straight weekly gain, following earlier November volatility.  ^[41]

Rotation signals:

• The Russell 2000 small‑cap index outperformed on Thursday, jumping about 1.2% and benefiting from the prospect of lower rates.  ^[42]
• That rotation into domestically focused small caps is a classic late‑cycle “breadth improvement” sign, where more parts of the market participate in the rally.

Dow Theory angle:

• A century‑old Dow Theory signal is drawing attention: the Dow Jones Transportation Average has been on a powerful multi‑day winning streak, rising alongside the industrials.  ^[43]
• Under Dow Theory, bull markets are more durable when both industrial and transportation averages confirm each other by moving higher together, suggesting the current rally may have room to run.

Caveat: At the same time, some analysts warn that stretched valuations and “ugly” technicals earlier in November leave the market vulnerable to a 10% correction if macro data or Fed messaging disappoint.  ^[44]

9. Today’s U.S. data calendar at a glance (all times ET)

Here are the key releases traders will be watching:

• 10:00 a.m. – Personal Income & Outlays (September)
  • Includes headline and core PCE, plus personal income and spending
  • Forecasts:
    • Core PCE: +0.2% m/m, +2.8–2.9% y/y
    • Personal income: +0.3% m/m
    • Personal spending: +0.3% m/m  ^[45]
• 10:00 a.m. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary, December)
  • Expected around 52.0, up slightly from 51.0 in November.  ^[46]
• 3:00 p.m. – Consumer Credit (October)
  • Consensus: +$11.8 billion, down from $13.1 billion previously.  ^[47]

In the background, investors are also digesting:

• Weekly jobless claims, which unexpectedly dropped to 191,000, underlining ongoing labor‑market resilience.  ^[48]
• Ongoing commentary from Fed officials ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where the statement, dot plot and press conference may matter more than the cut itself.

10. What it all means for traders and investors today

Putting it together, here’s how today’s setup looks:

1. Macro narrative:
   • The market is pricing a soft‑landing story: inflation gently gliding toward target, growth slowing but not collapsing, and the Fed trimming rates cautiously. PCE data today is a major test of that narrative.
2. Risk balance:
   • Upside scenario: PCE comes in at or slightly below expectations, reinforcing the case for a December cut and further easing in 2026. Yields ease, the dollar softens, and the S&P 500 could challenge or break its record high.
   • Downside scenario: A hotter print or hawkish Fed headlines shift the focus back to sticky inflation and policy uncertainty, potentially sparking a pullback—especially in long‑duration growth stocks and richly valued AI names.
3. Where volatility may cluster:
   • Media & streaming: Netflix, Warner Bros Discovery, and peers as the market digests the $72B mega‑deal.  ^[49]
   • Rate‑sensitive names: Small caps, financials, and unprofitable growth stocks, given their dependence on lower funding costs.  ^[50]
   • Earnings & offerings: Ulta, HPE, Rubrik, SoFi, Oklo, Symbotic and other pre‑market movers are likely to see outsized intraday swings as investors re‑price their stories.  ^[51]
4. Time zones matter:
   • Because PCE hits 30 minutes after the opening bell, you could see two phases of trading:
     • A “position‑squaring” open, driven by overnight news and flows.
     • A data‑driven re‑pricing once PCE and sentiment numbers cross the wires.

Final word

The U.S. stock market heads into Friday’s open with futures gently higher, the S&P 500 just shy of a record, and a rare Dow Theory confirmation from transports—but also with a crucial inflation print and a divided Fed looming just ahead.

For short‑term traders, today is all about timing around the PCE release and the Netflix–Warner Bros megadeal headlines. For longer‑term investors, the bigger questions are whether inflation truly remains on a 2–3% path and whether Fed cuts can extend the bull market without reigniting price pressures.

As always, this overview is for information only and not investment advice—but it should give you a clear roadmap of what to watch before the bell rings.

References

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