Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Today: Prediction Markets Push, Crypto Volatility and Wall Street Targets

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) remains one of 2025’s most closely watched stocks, sitting at the crossroads of retail trading, crypto, and the fast‑emerging prediction‑markets business.

As of midday on December 5, 2025, Robinhood shares were trading around $133, down roughly 3% on the day, giving the company a market capitalization of about $120 billion. Over the past year the stock has swung between roughly $30 and $154, and it still trades at a price-to-earnings multiple in the mid‑50s on trailing 12‑month earnings – a rich valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. ^[1]

Despite a recent pullback, Robinhood is still up well over 200% in 2025, making it one of the standout performers among large U.S. financial technology names. ^[2]

1. December 5 news: fresh analyst support and institutional buying

Needham reiterates Buy with a $145 target

This morning, Needham analyst John Todaro reiterated a Buy rating on Robinhood and maintained a $145 12‑month price target. The call, highlighted by GuruFocus, notes consistent confidence in Robinhood’s market position and future growth prospects, and follows a string of bullish target hikes from other brokers in November. ^[3]

Recent analyst actions cited in that summary include:

Citizens lifting its target to $180 with a “Market Outperform” rating (Nov 7).
Mizuho raising its target to $172 with “Outperform”.
Cantor Fitzgerald increasing its target to $155 with an “Overweight” rating. ^[4]

Together, these calls underline how much Wall Street sentiment has shifted from skepticism to cautious optimism as Robinhood’s profitability ramps.

Zacks: Robinhood as a “Top Finance Stock”

Zacks Investment Research recently added Robinhood to its Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list and called it a “top finance stock” to watch in December. The firm points to: ^[5]

Multiple upward earnings revisions over the last 60 days.
A 2025 consensus EPS estimate around $1.95, up roughly $0.22 over that period.
Expected 2025 earnings growth near 79% and revenue growth of about 51% year over year.

Zacks also notes Robinhood’s strong earnings‑surprise history (average positive surprise above 25%) and recent outperformance versus the broader S&P 500. ^[6]

Institutions keep adding: 13F filings highlight growing stakes

New and updated 13F filings in recent days show a mix of large investors building or increasing positions in HOOD:

M&T Bank Corp disclosed about $4.45 million in Robinhood shares as of the second quarter, according to a December 5 MarketBeat alert. ^[7]
Schroder Investment Management Group reported a position of roughly $49.8 million. ^[8]
Firms such as Pinkerton Wealth, Wealthedge Investment Advisors, Lido Advisors, VestGen Advisors, and others have either initiated new positions or significantly boosted their holdings in the stock in recent quarters. ^[9]

At the same time, some investors – including HSBC and certain pension funds – have trimmed their stakes, reflecting profit‑taking after the stock’s huge multi‑year run. ^[10]

2. Q3 2025 earnings: fundamentals behind the rally

Robinhood’s powerful 2025 share‑price performance has been driven largely by a dramatic turnaround in its financials.

According to the Q3 2025 earnings call transcript: ^[11]

Revenue reached about $1.27–1.30 billion, roughly double the level a year earlier and a new quarterly record.
Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.61, beating the $0.51 consensus estimate by almost 20%.
Net deposits topped $20 billion, another company record.
Incremental adjusted EBITDA margins were reported around 75%, highlighting strong operating leverage.

Following the release, HOOD shares jumped more than 4% in after‑hours trading, as investors reacted to the combination of rapid revenue growth and expanding margins. ^[12]

On the call, CEO Vlad Tenev emphasized three strategic pillars:

Being #1 with active traders,
Maximizing wallet share for the next generation, and
Building a global financial ecosystem.

Management called out record equity and options volumes in Q3 and even stronger numbers in October, plus surging interest in Robinhood’s event contracts / prediction markets and new social‑trading features. ^[13]

Trailing 12‑month data from StockAnalysis show: ^[14]

Revenue (ttm): about $4.2 billion
Net income (ttm): roughly $2.2 billion
EPS (ttm): around $2.39
P/E ratio: near 55x

These figures help explain both the optimism and the valuation debate now surrounding HOOD.

3. Prediction markets and the MIAXdx acquisition: a new growth engine

Arguably the most important strategic development since Q3 has been Robinhood’s aggressive push into prediction markets and derivatives infrastructure.

90% stake in MIAXdx with Susquehanna as partner

On November 25, 2025, Robinhood announced plans to acquire a 90% equity stake in MIAXdx, a CFTC‑licensed derivatives exchange, with Susquehanna International Group joining as co‑investor and day‑one liquidity provider. ^[15]

Key details from InsiderFinance’s summary of the deal: ^[16]

MIAXdx is a subsidiary of Miami International Holdings (MIAX), which will retain a 10% strategic stake.
MIAXdx holds designations as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) and Swap Execution Facility (SEF), giving Robinhood a full CFTC‑regulated exchange and clearing stack.
The partners expect the transaction to close in Q1 2026, with operations starting later in 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.
Management has referenced a ~$100 million annualized revenue run rate tied to current prediction‑market trading levels on the underlying platform.

Robinhood has said more than 1 million customers traded about 9 billion prediction‑market contracts in the product’s first year, making prediction markets its fastest‑growing revenue line. ^[17]

This deal could:

Let Robinhood internalize more of the economics of event contracts and futures trading.
Expand the menu of futures and options on futures available to active traders.
Tighten its integration with professional liquidity providers like Susquehanna.

“YES/NO” and entertainment‑style markets

To showcase this product category, Robinhood is hosting “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO”, a keynote event scheduled for December 16, 2025 at Summit Skywalker Ranch near San Francisco. ^[18]

Coverage of the company’s plans indicates that the YES/NO lineup will include: TechStock²

AI‑driven prediction‑market tools and binary “yes/no” contracts.
Entertainment‑style markets on events like major award shows and high‑profile cultural moments.

Analysts see this as a way to:

Deepen engagement with Robinhood’s core user base.
Create new fee and spread revenue streams beyond traditional stock trading.
Potentially invite greater regulatory scrutiny, especially where prediction markets overlap with gambling rules in the U.S. and abroad.

4. Crypto exposure cuts both ways: the 13% November drop

Robinhood’s business is heavily tied to risk‑on trading behavior, especially in cryptocurrencies and now prediction markets. That has made the stock extremely sensitive to swings in Bitcoin and broader digital‑asset sentiment.

According to a recent article syndicated by Sharewise and based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Robinhood shares fell about 13% in November despite strong Q3 results. ^[19]

The article highlights two main reasons: ^[20]

Reliance on crypto trading volumes – When major cryptocurrencies sold off, trading activity and sentiment around brokerage and crypto‑linked stocks cooled.
Valuation concerns – After a huge run‑up, the stock was trading at a P/E around the low‑50s, leading some investors to question how much of the growth story was already priced in.

Other coverage echoes this pattern. Motley Fool pieces note that: ^[21]

Robinhood is still up roughly 225% year to date, even after the correction.
The company’s model tends to excel in bull markets with heavy trading, but could lag if markets or crypto enter a prolonged slump.

In the last several sessions, HOOD has repeatedly moved in tandem with Bitcoin – dropping sharply when crypto sells off and rebounding when Bitcoin bounces back above key levels like $90,000. ^[22]

For traders, this means HOOD has essentially become a leveraged, operationally profitable play on crypto and speculative trading appetite, not just a plain‑vanilla broker stock.

5. Wall Street forecasts: bullish, but with a wide range

Consensus ratings

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they all tell a similar story: most analysts rate Robinhood a Buy, albeit with wide disagreement on fair value.

MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 23 Wall Street analysts, with:
- 1 Sell
- 7 Hold
- 14 Buy and 1 Strong Buy (roughly).
  The average 12‑month target is about $136.95, implying low‑single‑digit upside from recent prices, with a range from $47 to $180. ^[23]
StockAnalysis also counts 23 analysts, but its compiled average target is lower, around $119.62, which would imply about 10% downside from Friday’s ~$133 price, even though the site labels the overall analyst stance as “Buy.” ^[24]
GuruFocus reports an average target around $151.27 from 20 analysts, with a high of $180 and a low of $86, implying around 10% upside from a reference price near $137. It summarizes the average brokerage recommendation as roughly “Outperform.” ^[25]

At the same time, GuruFocus’ internal GF Value model pegs a one‑year “fair value” near $51, implying the stock trades dramatically above that long‑term valuation metric – a reminder of just how stretched some traditional value measures see HOOD right now. ^[26]

Growth forecasts

Looking beyond the next quarter, analyst models compiled by StockAnalysis (and cited in broader coverage) suggest: TechStock²

Revenue could grow from roughly $2.95 billion in 2024 to about $4.34 billion in 2025 and $5.24 billion in 2026.
EPS is projected to rise from about $1.56 (2024) → $1.89 (2025) → $2.30 (2026).

Those numbers imply:

Robust, though gradually decelerating, top‑line growth.
Continued margin expansion, assuming trading activity and prediction‑market volumes remain strong.

Combined with Zacks’ estimate that 2025 earnings could grow nearly 80% year over year, Robinhood is widely viewed as a high‑growth fintech – but priced to stay that way. ^[27]

6. Policy tailwind: competing for “Trump accounts”

Another storyline investors are watching is how Robinhood might benefit from the U.S. government’s proposed “Trump accounts” program – tax‑advantaged investment accounts seeded with $1,000 for each American newborn between 2025 and 2029. ^[28]

The accounts are designed to track broad stock‑market performance, with funds accessible at adulthood for education, home purchase or starting a business. ^[29]
At a White House “Invest America Council” event in June 2025, Vlad Tenev and other CEOs publicly committed capital and technology support for the initiative. ^[30]

More recently, Yahoo Finance and other outlets reported that Robinhood and JPMorgan Chase are among the firms vying to administer these accounts, which would let them manage records and effectively “onboard” millions of young customers before they turn 18. ^[31]

Benzinga has also reported that Tenev personally assured President Trump that Robinhood would make the Trump accounts “robust and intuitive,” arguing that it’s “super important” for younger generations to become owners of America through equity ownership. ^[32]

If Robinhood wins a meaningful slice of this business, it could create:

A long‑duration pipeline of future retail investors,
Large recurring inflows into low‑cost investment products, and
A powerful brand association with generational wealth‑building.

However, the program remains politically and operationally complex, and final provider selection has not yet been announced.

7. Key risks: regulation, concentration and market dependence

Even bulls acknowledge that Robinhood carries significant risk factors.

1. Regulatory and legal overhang

The company has a long history of regulatory scrutiny, including past settlements with the SEC and FINRA over payment for order flow and best execution practices. ^[33]
Event‑contract and prediction‑markets products sit in a legally sensitive zone. Recent Zacks and Barchart coverage has questioned whether lawsuits and CFTC decisions could slow growth in Robinhood’s event‑contracts business. ^[34]

Any fresh enforcement action, product ban, or change in market‑structure rules could materially impact revenues.

2. Dependence on trading & crypto cycles

Multiple recent articles from outlets like The Motley Fool and Investopedia stress that Robinhood’s fortunes remain closely tied to trading volume, especially in crypto: ^[35]

When markets are calm and volatility is low, casual trading tends to drop, pressuring transaction‑based revenue.
Crypto sell‑offs can trigger sharp declines in HOOD as investors anticipate lower volumes and lower risk appetite.

3. Rich valuation & volatility

With a P/E above 50x trailing earnings and some models seeing downside to the current price, Robinhood is priced like a high‑growth tech stock rather than a traditional broker. ^[36]

That means:

Positive surprises (like Q3’s beat or the MIAXdx deal) can spark outsized rallies.
Negative headlines (regulatory, macro, or crypto) can cause double‑digit drawdowns, as seen in November’s 13% monthly decline. ^[37]

8. What investors are watching next

Looking ahead from December 5, 2025, market participants tracking HOOD will likely focus on:

YES/NO event on December 16
- Product announcements, user‑growth metrics for prediction markets, and any new monetization features. ^[38]
Progress on the MIAXdx acquisition
- Regulatory filings, CFTC feedback and integration plans for Robinhood’s derivatives and event‑contract businesses. ^[39]
Crypto price action
- Bitcoin’s ability to hold recent support levels has already proven decisive for short‑term moves in HOOD. ^[40]
Trump accounts implementation
- Which financial firms are awarded key roles and what technology platforms they use could shape Robinhood’s long‑term growth runway. ^[41]
Next earnings report
- Whether Robinhood can maintain triple‑digit revenue growth and high incremental margins, or whether trading activity begins to normalize, will be central to the valuation debate. ^[42]

9. Bottom line

As of December 5, 2025, Robinhood (HOOD) sits at a fascinating intersection of themes:

A high‑growth, highly profitable fintech that just delivered a blowout Q3. ^[43]
A macro‑sensitive trading platform whose revenues and share price are tightly linked to risk‑on sentiment and crypto markets. ^[44]
An ambitious prediction‑markets and derivatives player in the middle of acquiring a CFTC‑regulated exchange and rolling out new YES/NO products. ^[45]
A potential long‑term beneficiary of government policy initiatives like Trump accounts for newborns. ^[46]

Wall Street’s view is broadly positive – with most analysts recommending Buy or Moderate Buy – but price targets span from deeply bearish to highly bullish, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how sustainable today’s growth and margins will be. ^[47]

For now, Robinhood remains a high‑beta, high‑expectation stock: one that could continue to outperform if prediction markets scale, crypto stays active, and regulatory risks remain contained – but which also carries meaningful downside if any of those pillars wobble.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

References

Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Today: Prediction Markets Push, Crypto Volatility and Wall Street Targets – December 5, 2025 Update