Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is back in the spotlight as 2025 winds down. The stock is trading around $202 per share on December 5, 2025, roughly mid‑range between its 52‑week low near $129 and high around $243, and up about 14% year to date. [1]
After a bruising few years marked by safety crises, a 2024 machinists’ strike and persistent production problems, investors are suddenly asking again: Is Boeing stock a buy, hold, or sell going into 2026? [2]
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts, and analysis on Boeing stock as of December 5, 2025, including the Spirit AeroSystems deal, delivery targets, 737 MAX certification progress and Wall Street price targets.
Key Takeaways for Boeing (BA) Investors
- Share price & performance: BA trades near $202, up roughly 14% in 2025 but still well below its 52‑week high near $243, reflecting both recovery and lingering skepticism. [3]
- Big guidance shift: Boeing’s CFO now expects positive free cash flow in 2026 after an expected ~$2 billion outflow in 2025, driven by higher 737 and 787 deliveries and better defense margins. [4]
- Spirit AeroSystems acquisition cleared with conditions: The FTC has approved Boeing’s $8.3 billion Spirit deal, but requires significant divestitures to Airbus and a Malaysian buyer to preserve competition. [5]
- Delivery crunch in December: Boeing delivered about 53 jets in October and an estimated 44 in November, leaving the company needing roughly 63 deliveries in December to hit Wall Street’s Q4 target of 160 jets. [6]
- Orders pipeline remains strong: Boeing has booked 782 net orders year‑to‑date, including a wave of 737 MAX and 777X orders at the Dubai Airshow 2025, where Emirates ordered 65 additional 777‑9s and flydubai signed an MoU for up to 150 737 MAX jets. [7]
- Analyst outlook is bullish: Most Wall Street firms rate BA “Moderate” to “Strong Buy” with 12‑month price targets clustered around $235–$250, implying roughly 18–23% upside from current levels. [8]
Boeing Stock Today: Price, Range and Volatility
Market data show Boeing changing hands near $202 on December 5, 2025, with an intraday range roughly between $200 and $203, a market capitalization around $153–154 billion, and a 52‑week range of $128.88–$242.69. [9]
Price‑performance statistics for the past year highlight how volatile the recovery has been:
- 1‑month: Up just over 2%, with a sharp rally in early December offsetting a weak November. [10]
- 3‑month: Down about 12%, reflecting worries about deliveries, labor disruptions and ongoing safety overhangs. [11]
- Year‑to‑date: Up roughly 14%, even after a period when the stock had at one point been down around 30% for the year before rebounding. [12]
Boeing’s beta sits around 1.17, meaning the stock tends to be more volatile than the broader market—a key consideration for risk‑sensitive investors. [13]
Cash Flow Pivot: CFO Signals 2026 Turning Point
The biggest catalyst in recent days was Boeing’s updated outlook from CFO Jay Malave at a UBS conference on December 2:
- Boeing expects a roughly $2 billion cash outflow in 2025, as it continues to work through production and quality issues. [14]
- Management now guides to positive free cash flow in 2026, in the “low single‑digit billions”, supported by higher deliveries of 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliners and improved performance in the defense and space unit. [15]
- Longer term, Boeing is still targeting around $10 billion in annual free cash flow once production is normalized and major exceptional costs fade. [16]
The market liked what it heard. Following Malave’s remarks, Boeing shares jumped 8–10% in a single session, leading the S&P 500 higher and contributing to a broader risk‑on move amid optimism about upcoming Fed rate cuts. [17]
At the same time, Malave reiterated that Boeing is not close to launching a new commercial aircraft program, a message echoed in industry coverage that described any clean‑sheet jet as still “a ways out.” [18] Instead, the company is focused on stabilizing existing programs, improving quality and paying down debt.
Spirit AeroSystems Deal: Strategic Fix or Added Risk?
Another major story shaping Boeing’s investment case this week is the Federal Trade Commission’s conditional approval of Boeing’s acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems.
What the deal looks like
- Boeing is reacquiring Spirit in an all‑stock transaction valued at $4.7 billion, assuming roughly $4 billion of Spirit debt for a total deal value around $8.3 billion. [19]
- Spirit, spun off from Boeing in 2005, is a key supplier of 737 and 787 fuselages and other aerostructures for Boeing, and also supplies major components for Airbus A350 and A220 jets. [20]
Spirit has struggled with financial losses and quality issues, which have fed directly into production delays for both Boeing and Airbus. [21] By bringing much of Spirit back in‑house, Boeing hopes to gain tighter control over its most critical bottleneck.
FTC conditions and competitive implications
The FTC is allowing the merger only with significant divestitures designed to protect competition in both commercial and military aircraft:
- Boeing must divest Spirit units that primarily supply Airbus to Airbus itself. [22]
- Spirit’s Subang, Malaysia facility will be sold to Composites Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM). [23]
- Boeing and Spirit must continue supplying aerostructures and services to competing defense contractors, under oversight from regulatory monitors representing both the FTC and the U.S. Department of Defense. [24]
Airbus will receive $439 million in cash compensation as part of the broader transaction to offset losses from taking over some loss‑making operations, notably the Belfast plant. [25]
Boeing says it expects the deal to close by the end of 2025, which means Spirit’s integration and the associated divestitures will be a central theme for BA stock throughout 2026. [26]
Investor angle:
If Boeing executes well, the Spirit acquisition could reduce production disruptions and improve quality, supporting delivery growth and cash generation. But Spirit’s historical quality problems—and the complexity of satisfying global regulators while splitting the company with Airbus—also add execution and integration risk.
Deliveries, Backlog and the December Crunch
For an aircraft manufacturer, deliveries are destiny—they drive revenue, profit and cash flow.
Year‑to‑date deliveries and backlog
- Boeing delivered 53 jets in October 2025, bringing year‑to‑date deliveries to 493 aircraft, with 39 737 MAX planes delivered in October alone. [27]
- Forecasts suggest Boeing delivered about 44 jets in November, implying a slower month than 2024 and 2023. [28]
- Boeing’s order backlog stands at roughly 5,911 aircraft, with 782 net new orders booked in 2025 through October, including a near‑record 320 orders for the 787 Dreamliner. [29]
Q4 expectations and “mammoth December” risk
According to recent analysis, Boeing would need to deliver about 63 aircraft in December to hit Wall Street’s Q4 target of 160 jets. That would require matching its near‑record December 2023 delivery performance of 67 aircraft. [30]
The pressure is intense:
- November’s 44 deliveries lag prior years, reflecting ongoing quality checks, supply‑chain issues and lingering disruptions from the 2024 machinists’ strike and 737 MAX investigations. [31]
- Investors know that missed delivery targets often translate straight into weaker cash flow and earnings, so December performance will be closely watched.
Dubai Airshow 2025: Big Orders, Tough Competition
The Dubai Airshow 2025 (November 17–21) turned into a major showcase for Boeing’s long‑term order book, even as Airbus claimed some headline‑grabbing wins.
Wins for Boeing
- Emirates placed a $38 billion order for 65 Boeing 777‑9s, cementing its status as the largest customer for Boeing’s next‑generation widebody. [32]
- flydubai signed an MoU for 75 737 MAX jets with options for another 75, for a potential total of 150 aircraft. [33]
- Ethiopian Airlines and Air Senegal firmed orders for additional 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, contributing to well over 150 Boeing commitments at the show, according to airshow summaries. [34]
Emirates’ leadership reiterated confidence in the 777X program, even as certification has been repeatedly delayed, and signaled support for a potential larger 777X variant in future. [35]
Airbus fights back
Boeing’s wins were tempered by a major Airbus coup:
- flydubai ordered 150 Airbus A321neo jets, marking a significant shift for a carrier that has historically operated an all‑Boeing narrowbody fleet. [36]
The takeaway: Boeing strengthened its widebody and 737 MAX order pipeline, but narrowbody competition with Airbus remains fierce, especially in the workhorse single‑aisle market where the A321neo has been winning share.
737 MAX 7 and MAX 10: Certification Still a Key Overhang
Boeing’s 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants remain uncertified, and the market is watching closely for progress.
- Boeing has recently completed a redesign of the 737 MAX’s engine inlet anti‑ice system, a critical fix after earlier safety concerns, and is working with the FAA on a certification test plan—an important step toward first deliveries of the MAX 7 and MAX 10. [37]
- Airlines such as WestJet have publicly noted progress on MAX 10 certification, planning new non‑U.S. routes around the aircraft’s capabilities, which implies growing confidence that regulators will eventually sign off. [38]
Delays in certifying these variants have real commercial consequences: they affect Boeing’s ability to compete head‑to‑head with the Airbus A321neo on range and capacity, and they limit flexibility for airlines that structured their growth plans around the MAX 10 in particular.
Financials: Still in the Red, but Trend Improving
Despite the share price rebound, Boeing’s financial statements still show the scars of recent crises:
- Over the last 12 months, Boeing generated about $80.8 billion in revenue, but posted a net loss of roughly $10.2 billion, equal to EPS of –$13.51. [39]
- The stock trades with no meaningful trailing P/E because earnings are negative; valuation is instead based on forward earnings and cash flow expectations. [40]
- Boeing is scheduled to report its full‑year 2025 results around February 4, 2026, a key event that will either reinforce or undermine the new 2026 cash‑flow narrative. [41]
The company is also carrying substantial debt, built up during the 737 MAX grounding, the pandemic and the 2024 machinists’ strike, making the path to consistent positive free cash flow especially important for equity holders. [42]
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets for BA Stock
Wall Street remains broadly optimistic about Boeing’s medium‑term upside, even while acknowledging near‑term execution risks.
Recent surveys and data compilations show that:
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average price target of about $232, implying moderate upside from current levels. [43]
- StockAnalysis reports a “Strong Buy” view from 18 analysts, with an average 12‑month target around $239.56, or roughly 19% upside. [44]
- TipRanks aggregates 16 analysts with an average target around $249, a high target of $285 and a low target of $150; the consensus rating is also “Strong Buy”, suggesting expected upside of about 23%. [45]
- MarketWatch/Barron’s data show an average target near $247.57 from about 28 analysts, with an “Overweight” average recommendation and expectations of narrower losses in 2025 (EPS around –$7.47). [46]
Overall, analysts envision mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage upside over the next 12 months, assuming Boeing executes on its delivery ramp, closes the Spirit acquisition smoothly and avoids further major safety or regulatory setbacks.
What Smart Money and Derivatives Are Saying
Latest filings indicate that several institutional investors continue to add to Boeing positions:
- Hedge fund Alpha Wave Global LP disclosed a new stake in Boeing in a recent filing. [47]
- Baird Financial Group has also increased its holdings, according to separate disclosures. [48]
On the derivatives side, options‑flow trackers recently flagged large put option sweeps in BA expiring in early 2026, suggesting that some traders are hedging downside risk or speculating on volatility, even as the share price rebounds. [49]
This combination—institutional accumulation plus active hedging—fits with a classic “high‑beta recovery story” profile: investors see upside but are far from complacent about execution risk.
Key Risks to the Boeing Recovery Story
Even with improving sentiment, Boeing remains a high‑risk turnaround:
- Execution and quality risk
Ongoing quality issues, especially around 737 fuselage production and 787 manufacturing, could trigger further delivery delays, cost overruns or regulatory interventions. The Spirit integration adds another layer of execution risk. [50] - Certification and safety risk
Any additional setbacks in 737 MAX 7/10 certification or new safety incidents would directly hit investor confidence and could lead to renewed regulatory scrutiny. [51] - Macro and rate risk
Airline demand is robust today, but aircraft orders are cyclical. A sharper‑than‑expected slowdown or a reversal in rate‑cut expectations could pressure both airlines and lessors, leading to deferred deliveries or softer new orders. [52] - Competition from Airbus
Airbus’ strong order book, recent 150‑jet win at flydubai, and better recent financial performance (including a 45% YTD gain in its stock despite cutting its own delivery target) underscore intense competitive pressure. [53] - Balance sheet and leverage
With a still‑leveraged balance sheet and ongoing losses, Boeing has less room for error than before the 737 MAX crisis and pandemic downturn.
Is Boeing Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Now?
As of December 5, 2025, Boeing stock sits at the crossroads of risk and opportunity:
- Bullish case:
Supporters point to a huge backlog, rising deliveries, strong widebody and 737 MAX demand (especially after the Dubai Airshow), the potential for positive free cash flow in 2026, and double‑digit upside implied by consensus analyst targets. [54] - Bearish case:
Skeptics emphasize ongoing losses, lingering safety overhangs, integration challenges at Spirit, and the very real risk that Boeing misses its ambitious delivery and cash‑flow targets, especially given recent shortfalls in November deliveries. [55]
For now, Wall Street consensus leans constructively bullish, but the path is narrow: execution in 2026 will likely determine whether BA graduates from turnaround story to sustained cash‑flow machine—or slips back into stop‑start recovery mode.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs before making any decision about Boeing stock.
References
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