Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is ending the week trading just below fresh record highs, powered by a wave of bullish analyst calls, heavy institutional buying, and new strategic wins in global chip manufacturing. As of late trading on December 5, 2025, AMAT is changing hands around $268 per share, down slightly on the day but still close to its all‑time high after a powerful multi‑week rally. [1]
Below is a detailed look at today’s news, the latest forecasts, and the most recent analyses shaping the outlook for Applied Materials stock.
AMAT Stock Today: Price, Performance and Key Metrics
- Latest price: Around $268.17 as of late afternoon on December 5, 2025.
- Recent high: AMAT has been trading near a record closing high in the low‑$270s; a Dow Jones / Morningstar “Data Talk” note today highlighted the stock’s push toward another all‑time close. [2]
- 52‑week range: Roughly $123.74 – $272.76, meaning the stock has more than doubled from its 1‑year low. [3]
- Market cap & valuation: Market capitalization sits around $214 billion, with a trailing P/E near 31 and a PEG ratio around 2.7–2.8, putting AMAT firmly in “high‑quality growth at a premium price” territory. [4]
- Momentum: StockInvest.us notes that AMAT has risen in 9 of the last 10 sessions, gaining about 14–15% over the past two weeks and closing yesterday at $269.44, its ninth straight up day. [5]
Year‑to‑date, AMAT is up over 60%, and earlier this week set a new 52‑week high around $265–270, according to StockStory’s December 2 recap, which also points out that a $1,000 investment five years ago would now be worth about $3,115. [6]
In short, the stock is on a tear, with price action and valuations both signaling that the market is pricing in a very bullish semiconductor and AI cycle.
Fresh Headlines on December 5, 2025
1. Institutional Investors Keep Buying: Amundi & Mirabella Boost Stakes
Two new SEC‑filing‑driven stories out today show more large investors crowding into AMAT:
- Amundi increased its stake in Applied Materials by 2.8% in Q2, to about 7.87 million shares, now worth roughly $1.49 billion and representing about 0.98% of the company. [7]
- Mirabella Financial Services LLP lifted its holdings by 42.9% to 34,546 shares, worth about $6.33 million. [8]
Both MarketBeat pieces note that institutional investors and hedge funds now own roughly 80.6% of the stock, underscoring AMAT’s status as a core institutional holding in the AI and semiconductor equipment trade. [9]
These articles also highlight continued insider selling:
- Over the last 90 days, insiders sold about 8,600 shares worth just over $2 million, including sales by SVP Teri A. Little and CAO Adam Sanders. [10]
The insider sales are modest relative to institutional buying and total float, but they do show that some executives are locking in gains after a big run‑up.
2. India Strategic Win: AMAT to Help Modernise the Country’s Oldest Chip Fab
Today’s biggest strategic headline comes from India:
- An alliance of Tata Electronics, Cyient, and Applied Materials has been awarded a major mandate to modernise India’s oldest semiconductor fabrication facility, the Semiconductor Laboratory (SCL) in Mohali. [11]
Key points from the December 5 report:
- SCL currently produces 180‑nm chips and needs extensive upgrades to stay relevant globally.
- The alliance will revamp legacy production lines, deploy more advanced process technologies, and prepare the fab for future commercial operations. [12]
- Applied Materials is expected to contribute its process equipment expertise, while Tata and Cyient handle manufacturing workflows, systems engineering and operational restructuring.
- The project is part of India’s broader Semiconductor Mission aimed at reducing reliance on imported chips and building a domestic talent pipeline. [13]
For AMAT, this is not yet a needle‑moving revenue event on its own, but it strengthens its strategic footprint in India, a country pushing hard to become a global semiconductor hub.
3. AMAT Flagged as a Top Manufacturing Stock to Watch
MarketBeat has published and updated multiple screens this week that repeatedly highlight AMAT:
- A “Promising Manufacturing Stocks Worth Watching – December 3rd” piece, updated December 5, lists Applied Materials alongside Taiwan Semiconductor, Johnson Controls, Phillips 66 and Stellantis as five manufacturing names with the highest recent dollar trading volume. [14]
- A similar “Top Manufacturing Stocks to Follow Now – December 4th” screen again highlights TSM and AMAT as key ways to gain exposure to the semiconductor manufacturing chain. [15]
These articles emphasize that manufacturing (and especially semiconductor equipment) stocks are cyclical and capital‑intensive, highly sensitive to economic growth, commodity prices, supply‑chain dynamics and capital expenditure cycles. [16]
TD Cowen, KeyBanc, UBS and Others: Wall Street Turns Even More Bullish
A major driver of this week’s rally has been a cluster of analyst upgrades and target hikes:
TD Cowen: Price Target Raised to $315
On December 4, TD Cowen raised its price target on AMAT from $260 to $315 and reiterated a “Buy” rating. [17]
From Cowen’s and related coverage:
- The new target implies around mid‑teens upside from recent prices near $268–269. [18]
- The firm calls AMAT one of its top picks for 2026, citing:
- Roughly half of AMAT’s semi portfolio tied to DRAM (outside China) and leading‑edge foundry. [19]
- Forecast 17% growth in non‑China DRAM wafer fab equipment in 2026 and mid‑teens growth in leading‑edge foundry WFE in the back half of 2026. [20]
- Multiple DRAM “greenfield” projects from customers like Samsung and Micron as key tailwinds. [21]
Cowen’s report also revisits the latest quarter:
- Q4 EPS: About $2.17, beating consensus around $2.11.
- Revenue: Roughly $6.8 billion, slightly ahead of expectations and down about 3.5% year‑over‑year. [22]
- Guidance: Q1 FY 2026 EPS guided to about $1.98–$2.38, implying continued healthy profitability even as the industry digests prior cycle capacity. [23]
KeyBanc, UBS and Morgan Stanley: AI‑Driven Demand in Focus
Earlier this week, KeyBanc and Morgan Stanley raised their price targets, while UBS upgraded the stock, helping trigger a big move on December 2:
- According to StockStory, AMAT shares jumped about 4.4% on December 2 after:
- KeyBanc raised its target to $285 from $240 and kept an Overweight rating, citing long‑term AI demand drivers.
- UBS upgraded AMAT from Neutral to Buy with a $285 target, pointing to a solid outlook for wafer fab equipment used in memory chip production.
- Morgan Stanley increased its target from $252 to $273, also maintaining an Overweight stance. [24]
From StockAnalysis’s live forecast page, we also see:
- KeyBanc’s latest target: $240 → $285 (Buy).
- UBS: $250 → $285, with an upgrade to Strong Buy. [25]
These upgrades cluster around a narrative that AI and high‑performance computing capex will keep WFE demand strong into 2026–2027, even as legacy and China‑related spending softens.
Consensus Forecasts: Strong Growth, but Targets Lag the Share Price
Analyst Rating and Price Targets
Different aggregators show a similar but nuanced picture:
- MarketBeat data (as of this week):
- 20 Buy ratings and 14 Holds, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus.
- Average 12‑month target around $230–235 per share, still below the current price, even after Cowen’s new $315 target. [26]
- StockAnalysis.com forecasts:
- 27 analysts cover AMAT, with a consensus “Buy” rating.
- Average price target:$226.67, implying about 15% downside from current levels.
- Target range:$165 (low) to $300 (high). [27]
In other words, most analysts still like the business, but the stock’s recent rally has outrun many formal price targets, leaving the average Wall Street forecast below where the stock trades today.
Revenue and EPS Growth Outlook
StockAnalysis also aggregates Street forecasts for top‑line and bottom‑line growth: [28]
- Revenue this fiscal year (FY 2025): expected around $29.4 billion, up about 3.7% from roughly $28.4 billion.
- Revenue next year (FY 2026): forecast to climb to $33.1 billion, about 12.5% growth.
- EPS this year: seen rising from about $8.66 to $9.68 (+11.8%).
- EPS next year: projected to reach $11.58, another ~19.6% increase.
These forecasts align with the idea that AI‑related demand and memory/foundry capex will accelerate in calendar 2026, supporting double‑digit earnings growth.
Technical and Short‑Term Trading Views
While fundamental analysts focus on multi‑year growth, short‑term trading services offer their own take:
- StockInvest.us classifies AMAT as a “Hold / Accumulate” at current levels, despite strong technical buy signals:
- Notes 9 consecutive up days, +14.6% over two weeks, and a close at $269.44 on December 4.
- Flags RSI(14) around 78, indicating an extremely overbought condition in the near term.
- Sees nearby support around $265–266, with deeper volume support in the $226–210 range.
- Projects a potential intraday trading range for December 5 between roughly $264.6 and $274.3, based on recent volatility. [29]
The service concludes that AMAT “holds several positive signals” but should be viewed as a hold rather than an outright fresh buy at these extended levels, while waiting for a clearer setup. [30]
Fundamental Quality: Why Bulls Love Applied Materials
Several recent analyses emphasize just how strong a franchise Applied Materials has become:
GuruFocus: GF Score 94/100
A November 28 GuruFocus report assigns AMAT a GF Score of 94 out of 100, which it interprets as signifying “highest outperformance potential” based on backtested factor models. [31]
Key takeaways:
- Financial strength: 8/10, with interest coverage over 30x and a high Altman Z‑score (~9.6), signaling very low financial distress risk.
- Profitability: 10/10, with operating margin close to 30% and gross margins approaching 49%, both improving over the last five years. [32]
- Growth: 10/10, with estimated 3‑year revenue growth ~6% and EBITDA growth ~9–16% depending on horizon. [33]
GuruFocus also underscores AMAT’s leading market position in wafer‑fab equipment, especially in deposition tools, and its blue‑chip customer list (TSMC, Intel, Samsung and others). [34]
Business Mix and AI Tailwinds
Across MarketBeat, GuruFocus and StockAnalysis coverage, a consistent narrative emerges: [35]
- Applied Materials operates through three key segments:
- Semiconductor Systems – leading‑edge equipment for chip fabrication.
- Applied Global Services – high‑margin services and spares tied to its huge installed base.
- Display and Adjacent Markets – tools for displays and related applications.
- The installed base and service contracts give AMAT recurring, less cyclical revenue, partially smoothing the capital‑intensive equipment cycle.
- AI data centers, high‑bandwidth memory and advanced foundry nodes are expected to drive higher wafer‑fab equipment spending in 2026 and beyond.
This combination of dominant technology position, recurring service revenue and AI‑driven demand is central to the bullish long‑term thesis.
The Bear Case: Valuation, China Risk and Cycle Sensitivity
Despite the enthusiasm, not everyone believes AMAT is a bargain at today’s price.
1. Valuation: DCF and Technical Models Flag Overvaluation
A recent Simply Wall St article asks bluntly whether AMAT has “run too far” after its roughly 62% 2025 surge: [36]
- Their discounted cash flow model estimates fair value around $157.50 per share, implying the stock could be roughly 68.5% overvalued versus current levels.
- They project free cash flow rising from about $6.4 billion today to roughly $10.3 billion by 2030, but still see today’s price as baking in very optimistic assumptions. [37]
- On a P/E basis, they note AMAT trades around 30x earnings, slightly below the broader semiconductor industry average near 36x but slightly above their fair‑value P/E estimate of about 29.7x. Their conclusion: overvalued, but not wildly out of line with high‑quality peers. [38]
StockInvest’s technical model, meanwhile, recognizes strong upside momentum but warns that the overbought RSI and stretched run of up days raise near‑term risk, leading it to a “hold / accumulate” stance rather than a strong buy. [39]
2. China and Export Controls
A mid‑November Reuters piece highlights a critical macro risk: U.S. export controls on advanced chipmaking gear to China. [40]
Key points from management commentary:
- Applied Materials expects spending on chipmaking equipment in China to fall in 2026 due to tighter U.S. rules that limit its ability to serve certain Chinese customers.
- The company previously warned of about a $600 million hit to fiscal 2026 revenue from these restrictions. [41]
- China’s share of AMAT’s revenue has already fallen from nearly 40% to the “mid‑20%” range, as some business shifts to foreign rivals who are not subject to the same constraints. [42]
Management and analysts generally expect AI‑driven memory and data center demand to more than offset the China drag over time, but this remains a key policy and geopolitical risk.
3. Classic Cyclicality
Finally, both MarketBeat’s manufacturing screens and StockStory’s volatility commentary reinforce that AMAT remains a cyclical, high‑beta stock: [43]
- The stock has had at least 17 daily moves greater than 5% over the past year. [44]
- Equipment demand ultimately depends on customers’ capex budgets, which can change quickly if global growth slows, interest rates move unexpectedly, or AI spending expectations reset.
Dividend, Balance Sheet and Capital Returns
AMAT also offers a modest income component and strong balance sheet:
- Dividend: The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.46 per share, with recent payments in March, June, September and a scheduled payout on December 11, 2025. [45]
- At current prices near $268–270, that’s a sub‑1% forward yield—small, but growing over time.
- Leverage & liquidity: AMAT runs with a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.32 and strong liquidity ratios (current ~2.6, quick ~1.9), giving it ample flexibility for buybacks, dividends and R&D even through a downturn. [46]
What to Watch Next for Applied Materials Stock
For investors tracking AMAT after today’s headlines, a few key catalysts and data points stand out:
- Next earnings report and FY 2026 guidance
- The market will scrutinize how management updates its $6.85B (+/‑ $0.5B) revenue outlook and EPS guidance in the context of AI demand and export controls. [47]
- WFE spending signals from major customers
- Capex plans from TSMC, Samsung, Micron, Intel and others will be crucial in validating TD Cowen’s thesis of accelerating WFE growth in 2026. [48]
- Updates on India and other strategic projects
- Progress on the SCL Mohali modernization in India could hint at AMAT’s growing role in new geographies and government‑backed fabs. [49]
- Regulatory developments around China exports
- Any new U.S. restrictions—or relief—could change estimates for 2026–2027 revenue, given the current expected $600M hit from existing rules. [50]
- Valuation vs. growth trade‑off
- With the stock trading above most published price targets but well below TD Cowen’s $315 bull case, investors will be watching whether earnings revisions catch up to the stock or the price consolidates after a huge 2025 rally. [51]
Bottom Line
As of December 5, 2025, Applied Materials stock sits near record highs with:
- Strong institutional buying (Amundi, Mirabella, Norges Bank and others). [52]
- A bullish analyst backdrop, capped by TD Cowen’s new $315 price target and multiple upgrades from KeyBanc, UBS and other firms. [53]
- A powerful AI‑driven growth story, backed by double‑digit revenue and EPS forecasts into 2026. [54]
At the same time, DCF models and technical indicators warn that the stock is richly valued and overbought, while China export controls remain a meaningful overhang. [55]
For long‑term followers of AMAT and the semiconductor equipment sector, today’s news flow confirms that Applied Materials is squarely at the center of the AI and manufacturing cycle—but also that expectations are very high. As always, anyone considering the stock should weigh these opportunities and risks in light of their own time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio needs. This article is informational only and not investment advice.
References
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