Spotify Stock (SPOT) in December 2025: Earnings Beat, Co‑CEOs, Price Hikes and What Comes Next

Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) is ending 2025 as one of the most closely watched growth stories in global media and tech. As of the close on 5 December 2025, Spotify stock trades around $564 per share, valuing the streaming giant at roughly $116 billion.

After a blockbuster third quarter, a major leadership transition and fresh subscription price hikes, investors are asking a simple question: where does Spotify stock go from here?

Spotify stock today: price, range and basic valuation

Latest price (5 Dec 2025): about $564.
52‑week range: roughly $443 to $784, putting shares well below their recent peak despite a strong multi‑year run. ^[1]
Market cap: about $116 billion.

On a trailing basis, Spotify changes hands at an earnings multiple in the high‑80s, with a PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth) around 1.8, according to MarketBeat’s latest snapshot. ^[2] Forward metrics are more modest: consensus estimates compiled by StockAnalysis imply a forward P/E near 39 on 2026 earnings. ^[3]

In simple terms, Wall Street is already pricing Spotify as a profitable, durable platform – not a speculative turnaround.

Q3 2025: profit surge and user milestones

Spotify’s latest earnings report, covering the third quarter of 2025, is the foundation for today’s bull case.

According to the company’s own release and subsequent coverage:

Monthly Active Users (MAUs):713 million, up 11% year‑on‑year, beating guidance. ^[4]
Premium subscribers:281 million, up 12% year‑on‑year and +5 million versus the prior quarter. ^[5]
Total revenue:€4.27 billion (about $5.0 billion), up 7% year‑on‑year, or 12% on a constant‑currency basis. ^[6]
Gross margin:31.6%, modestly higher than a year ago and ahead of guidance. ^[7]
Operating income:€582 million, with an operating margin around 13.6%. ^[8]
Net income: roughly €899 million, almost three times the profit in the same quarter of 2024, and well above analyst expectations. ^[9]
Free cash flow: about €806 million for the quarter, lifting Spotify’s last‑twelve‑months FCF to roughly €2.9 billion. ^[10]

MarketWatch, Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal all highlighted Q3 as a turning point: profits surged thanks to a combination of earlier price increases, disciplined costs and a wider product set that now spans high‑quality audio, AI‑powered recommendations, audiobooks and enhanced playlist tools. ^[11]

Yet the market reaction was mixed. On the day of the release, SPOT traded lower despite the beat, as investors focused on weaker‑than‑expected guidance and a still‑soft advertising business. ^[12]

The weak spot: ad‑supported business still lags

The key blemish in an otherwise strong quarter is advertising:

Ad‑supported revenue was €446 million, down 6% year‑on‑year in reported terms and flat on a constant‑currency basis. ^[13]
Ad‑supported gross margin actually improved sharply to 18.4%, but absolute revenue disappointed, coming in well below some analyst models. ^[14]

Management and external analysts broadly agree on the cause. Spotify is shifting its ad business from direct sales to more automated, programmatic channels. That transition is compressing growth in the near term:

A detailed post‑earnings breakdown from Tikr noted that ad revenue missed estimates by a wide margin and that management does not expect a real acceleration until the second half of 2026. ^[15]
Music Business Worldwide and eMarketer similarly describe advertising as the “weak spot” in otherwise solid earnings, even as executives insist the structural changes will pay off over time. ^[16]

New analysis on Seeking Alpha goes further, arguing that persistent ad under‑performance undermines the long‑term investment case and rating the stock a Sell despite recent margin gains. ^[17]

For investors, the takeaway is clear: Spotify is currently a subscription‑driven story with an ad option that may not fully kick in for another 18–24 months.

Leadership shake‑up: Daniel Ek steps back, co‑CEOs step in

Beyond the numbers, Spotify is about to change the way it is run.

On 30 September 2025, the company announced that founder and long‑time CEO Daniel Ek will become Executive Chairman on 1 January 2026. Day‑to‑day control will pass to Gustav Söderström (currently co‑President and Chief Product & Technology Officer) and Alex Norström (co‑President and Chief Business Officer), who will serve as co‑CEOs. ^[18]

Ek says the move simply formalizes a structure that has been in place since 2023, with Norström and Söderström already driving most strategic execution. As executive chairman, he plans to focus on capital allocation and long‑term strategy, in what he describes as a more hands‑on, “European‑style” role. ^[19]

An Extraordinary General Meeting on 10 December 2025 will vote on adding Norström and Söderström to the board, effective 1 January. ^[20]

Reactions have been mixed:

Reuters notes that Ek leaves the CEO chair “on a high note,” with the stock having climbed more than seven‑fold since 2023 as profitability improved. ^[21]
Morningstar and other research shops see the CEO transition as neutral to long‑term fundamentals, arguing Spotify’s strategy is already set and execution is in familiar hands. ^[22]
Some governance commentators worry that having an executive chairman plus two CEOs could blur accountability. ^[23]

Nevertheless, the market has largely digested the news: the stock dipped on the announcement but recovered as Q3 results and renewed buy ratings came through. ^[24]

Price hikes: fuel for margins in 2026

If advertising is the weak link, pricing power is Spotify’s current weapon of choice.

Global increases already underway

In August 2025, Spotify detailed “upcoming changes” to Premium prices across much of South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and Asia‑Pacific, citing the need to keep investing in product and content. ^[25]

U.S. price rise coming in early 2026

Multiple reports now say the next domino is the United States:

The Financial Times, summarized by TechCrunch and 9to5Mac, reports Spotify is planning to raise U.S. Premium prices in the first quarter of 2026, likely from $11.99 to around $12.99 per month for the individual plan. ^[26]
TechCrunch notes this would be Spotify’s first U.S. price increase since July 2024 and that major record labels have been lobbying hard for higher streaming prices. ^[27]

Investment banks see these hikes as a key margin lever:

Deutsche Bank recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $775 price target, arguing that a standard $1 monthly price increase in the U.S. could lift Spotify’s 2026 revenue by ~2% and operating income by about 5% versus current forecasts. More aggressive pricing scenarios could drive operating income more than 20% above 2025 levels, the bank estimates. ^[28]

In other words, Spotify has meaningful pricing power left, especially in mature markets – and analysts are building that into their 2026–27 models.

What Wall Street is saying: mostly bullish, pockets of caution

Consensus ratings and targets

Across the Street, sentiment on SPOT is broadly positive:

MarketBeat tracks 33 analysts who have rated Spotify in the past year; the stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus with 24 Buys and 9 Holds. The average 12‑month price target is about $759, implying roughly 35% upside from recent levels, with targets spanning from $545 to $900. ^[29]
StockAnalysis likewise characterizes the average rating as “Buy” and shows similar target ranges, supported by data from Benzinga and Finnhub. ^[30]

Recent individual calls include:

Deutsche Bank: Buy, $775 target. ^[31]
Benchmark: Strong Buy, target raised to $860. ^[32]
Guggenheim: Strong Buy, trimming target from $850 to $800. ^[33]
Barclays: Buy, target cut slightly to $700. ^[34]
Cantor Fitzgerald: Hold, target lifted to $675.
Rosenblatt: Hold, target reduced to $670. ^[35]

Nordic research firm Inderes, meanwhile, maintains a “Reduce” rating with a $645 target, pointing to high valuation despite improved execution. ^[36]

Fundamental forecasts

Analyst models compiled by StockAnalysis project: ^[37]

2025 revenue: about €17.5 billion, up ~12% year‑on‑year.
2026 revenue: roughly €20.1 billion, implying mid‑teens growth.
2025 EPS: about €7.33 (up ~33%).
2026 EPS:€12.51, implying over 70% earnings growth as margins expand.

Those expectations assume continued user growth, incremental price increases and a gradual recovery of the ad business.

Technical and quantitative views: more cautious

Not all models are bullish:

Technical analysis service StockInvest.us currently labels SPOT a “Sell candidate”, noting that the stock sits in the lower part of a wide, falling short‑term trend and is oversold on RSI. Their model projects a 19% decline over the next three months, with a 90%‑probability range between about $447 and $498. ^[38]
TipRanks’ AI‑driven “Spark” score calls the stock Neutral, citing excellent fundamentals but “bearish momentum” and rich valuation. ^[39]

So while fundamental analysts mostly see more upside, quantitative and chart‑driven systems are flashing warning lights about near‑term downside risk.

Big money ownership: founders and institutions

Spotify’s shareholder base is dominated by its founders and large asset managers:

Founder Daniel Ek owns about 14.3% of outstanding shares; co‑founder Martin Lorentzon holds roughly 9.8%. ^[40]
As of mid‑2025, institutional investors controlled approximately 66% of shares, with BlackRock, Baillie Gifford and Morgan Stanley among the largest holders. ^[41]
A new filing highlighted by MarketBeat on 5 December shows Brown Advisory boosting its SPOT position by more than 900% in Q2, now holding 362,853 shares worth around $278 million, or about 0.18% of the company. Institutional and hedge‑fund ownership is now estimated at over 84%. ^[42]

High founder ownership plus heavy institutional participation is typically read as a long‑term alignment positive, but it can also amplify volatility when large funds rebalance or macro sentiment shifts.

Guidance: Q4 2025 and early 2026

For Q4 2025, Spotify is guiding to: ^[43]

745 million MAUs (net adds of ~32 million).
289 million premium subscribers (net adds of ~8 million).
€4.5 billion in revenue – slightly below consensus, partly due to FX headwinds and conservative ad assumptions.
Operating income of €620 million and gross margin around 32.9%, both ahead of many prior models.

The next earnings report is currently expected in early February 2026. ^[44]

Key risks to the Spotify story

Investors considering Spotify stock now are effectively betting that the company can keep widening its moat in streaming while unlocking more monetization. The main risks:

Advertising turnaround takes longer than expected
Management itself doesn’t expect meaningful ad acceleration until the second half of 2026. If macro conditions weaken or the shift to programmatic hits roadblocks, that timeline could slip, muting one of Spotify’s most important profit levers. ^[45]
Competition from Apple, YouTube and Amazon
Rival platforms are aggressively bundling music with video, cloud and Prime‑style perks. Reuters notes that Spotify remains the usage leader but still faces persistent margin pressure as artists and labels push for higher payouts. ^[46]
Execution risk under a new co‑CEO structure
Co‑CEO models can work, but they also risk blurred accountability. Analysts are watching closely to see how Norström and Söderström divide responsibilities and respond to external shocks once Ek moves upstairs. ^[47]
Valuation and volatility
Even after the recent pullback from its highs, SPOT still trades at premium multiples. If growth stumbles or rates rise again, high‑multiple names like Spotify often see outsized price swings – something that technical services are already flagging. ^[48]

The bottom line: Spotify stock’s 2026 setup

Put it all together, and the Spotify investment narrative heading into 2026 looks like this:

Fundamentals: user and subscriber growth remain strong; profitability has inflected with multi‑billion‑euro free cash flow; margins are trending up. ^[49]
Strategy: the platform is broadening beyond music into podcasts, audiobooks and richer social features, with AI tools increasingly central to engagement and discovery. ^[50]
Catalysts: upcoming U.S. and global price hikes, potential ad recovery from 2026, and a fresh leadership structure designed to sustain execution at scale. ^[51]
Counter‑points: ads are still a drag, short‑term technicals are weak, and the stock’s valuation leaves little room for major missteps. ^[52]

For long‑term investors who believe Spotify can eventually turn a large share of its 700‑plus million users into more lucrative, multi‑product relationships, analysts’ 2026–27 forecasts suggest there is still upside from here. For shorter‑term traders, however, the combination of rich multiples, soft ad trends and a technically fragile chart argue for caution.

Either way, Spotify remains one of the defining stocks to watch in global streaming and digital audio as 2026 approaches.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should do their own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.