AMD vs Intel Stock in 2025: Which Chip Giant Looks Better for the AI Boom?

Updated: December 5, 2025 – Not financial advice; for information and education only.

Key takeaways

• Both stocks have ripped higher in 2025, with AMD up roughly ~95–100% and Intel up ~90% or more year to date as investors pile into AI hardware.  ^[1]
• AMD is the pure AI-growth play: huge data-center ambitions, a deep Instinct GPU roadmap (MI300 → MI308 → MI400) and a bold $100B data-center revenue target within five years – but also a very rich valuation.  ^[2]
• Intel is a complex turnaround + foundry story: big government and strategic backing, a revived CPU and AI accelerator push (Gaudi 3), and a risky bet that its 18A manufacturing node can win major customers.  ^[3]
• Wall Street broadly likes AMD and is cautious on Intel: AMD carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus with 12‑month targets in the high‑$270s; Intel’s average target sits well below the current price and comes with a “Hold” skew.  ^[4]
• The trade-off is clear: AMD offers faster growth but premium pricing and execution risk; Intel offers turnaround potential and foundry optionality but carries manufacturing, capital intensity, and competitive risk.

AMD vs Intel stock: where things stand now

As of the close on December 5, 2025:

• AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) trades around $218 per share, giving it a market cap near $355 billion.  ^[5]
• Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) trades around $41–42 per share with a market cap just under $200 billion.  ^[6]

In other words, AMD is now the larger company by market value – a reversal of history that underlines how aggressively investors are pricing in its AI future.

2025 performance snapshot

• AMD: Up roughly 96–97% year to date, boosted by accelerating AI GPU demand and a big reset of long-term targets at its November analyst day.  ^[7]
• Intel: Up around 90%+ in 2025 after a brutal 2024, as new CEO Lip‑Bu Tan’s cost cuts, government backing and AI/foundry roadmap have reignited optimism.  ^[8]

Both stocks have already delivered “multi‑bagger” type gains off their lows, which makes the obvious investor question: is there still upside from here – and if so, which one looks more compelling?

Let’s break it down.

AMD stock: high-octane AI growth with a rich valuation

AI data center is now the core story

AMD has fully morphed from a PC/console chipmaker into a top‑tier AI compute vendor:

• In AMD’s data-center segment, which houses its EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI GPUs, revenue in the September quarter rose about 22% to $4.3 billion, beating expectations.  ^[9]
• Total Q3 2025 revenue hit roughly $9.2 billion, up over 30% year over year, with non‑GAAP EPS beating estimates and strong growth in client and gaming chips as well.  ^[10]

Management’s outlook has turned decidedly bold:

• At its 2025 analyst day, AMD projected that its data center chip revenue could reach $100 billion annually within five years, implying extremely rapid growth from today’s levels.  ^[11]
• The company guided for ~35% annual growth across the business and ~60% growth in the data center segment over the next 3–5 years, with earnings potentially rising to around $20 per share by 2030 (vs a 2025 profit estimate under $3).  ^[12]

That’s essentially AMD pitching itself as the number‑two AI platform behind Nvidia, and a serious challenger in AI GPUs and systems.

Product roadmap: MI300 now, MI308/MI400 and Helios next

AMD’s AI hardware roadmap is central to why the stock commands such a premium:

• Instinct MI300 series (MI300X/MI325/MI355): High‑end AI GPUs targeting training and inference workloads, now ramping in the data center. AMD’s own ROCm benchmarks show competitive throughput across popular AI models on these chips.  ^[13]
• MI308 for China: AMD has secured licenses to sell modified AI chips into China and is prepared to pay a 15% U.S. export tax on shipments of its MI308 accelerators – highlighting both the demand and the geopolitics around AI silicon.  ^[14]
• MI400 and Helios (2026): AMD plans a next‑gen MI400 GPU line and a Helios rack‑scale AI system, combining GPUs, CPUs and networking in an Nvidia‑style integrated platform. The Helios architecture has already landed its first big OEM win with HPE, which plans to ship Helios‑based racks starting in 2026 with up to 72 next‑gen Instinct GPUs per rack.  ^[15]

Independent benchmarks still often show Nvidia’s H100/H200 ahead on out‑of‑the‑box training performance, but MI300X can be competitive on memory capacity and price, and AMD is rapidly improving its software stack.  ^[16]

What Wall Street thinks about AMD right now

Analysts are generally bullish – though not unanimously so:

• Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” with a heavily skewed Buy/Hold mix and essentially no Sell ratings recorded in recent months.  ^[17]
• 12‑month price targets:
  • MarketBeat lists an average target around $278–279, with a high near $380 and a low around $140, implying roughly 25–30% upside from the low‑$200s.  ^[18]
  • Individual analysts have been nudging targets higher; one recent update set a new target at $290, about 35%above a ~$215 share price at the time.  ^[19]
• Street revenue outlook: Barron’s and other outlets cite consensus 2025 revenue around the mid‑$30 billions, with growth north of 30% expected again in 2026–2027 as AI hardware ramps.  ^[20]

So the Street clearly believes AMD’s AI growth story – at least for now.

The catch: valuation and execution risk

AMD is priced like a company that must deliver on those lofty targets:

• The stock trades at triple‑digit trailing P/E (around or above 100), with forward P/E estimates in the high‑20s to low‑30s depending on whose numbers you use – levels many analysts describe as “premium” even for a fast‑growing AI name.  ^[21]
• On a price‑to‑sales basis, AMD fetches well over 10x current revenue, far above traditional semiconductor-cycle norms.  ^[22]

That leads to several key risks:

1. AI demand normalization: If the AI hardware “supercycle” turns out to be more cyclical than super, or customers start to over‑optimize GPU spend, AMD’s growth trajectory could undershoot its own targets.
2. Nvidia and custom silicon competition: Nvidia still owns the majority of AI GPU market share, and hyperscalers are expanding their own ASIC (custom chip) efforts. AMD has to win share in a field where incumbents already have deep software ecosystems.  ^[23]
3. Regulatory & geopolitical risk: Export controls to China and the new 15% tax on certain AI exports add friction and uncertainty to a key growth region.  ^[24]
4. High expectations baked in: At ~100x earnings, any slip in execution – a delayed product, softer demand, or margin squeeze – could trigger outsized share-price volatility, as some recent post‑earnings pullbacks already demonstrated.  ^[25]

Bottom line on AMD: It’s the cleaner AI growth story with massive ambitions – but also the one where very good results need to stay “very good” just to justify the current price.

Intel stock: a high-stakes turnaround and foundry bet

If AMD is about pure growth, Intel is about reinvention.

Financial recovery: Q3 numbers show real progress

After years of manufacturing missteps and profit compression, Intel’s 2025 results are finally showing traction:

• Q3 2025 revenue came in around $13.7 billion, up about 3% year over year.  ^[26]
• Adjusted EPS jumped to $0.23 vs Wall Street estimates near $0.01, as aggressive cost cuts and better execution pushed gross margins back to ~40%, beating expectations in the mid‑30s.  ^[27]
• Intel guided for Q4 revenue of $12.8–13.8 billion, in line with consensus, and plans to keep capital expenditure near $27 billion in 2025 as it pushes ahead with its foundry build‑out.  ^[28]

The company has also:

• Taken a major investment from the U.S. government (an unusual multi‑billion‑dollar equity stake), plus billions from Nvidia and SoftBank and others, to help fund its factory expansion and R&D.  ^[29]
• Cut its workforce by over 20% and sold down stakes in non‑core businesses like Altera to simplify the story and free up cash.  ^[30]

All of this has helped Intel stock rebound sharply, with 2025 gains of around 90–120% depending on the exact measurement date – a remarkable comeback after losing about 60% in 2024.  ^[31]

The 18A foundry gamble

The centerpiece of Intel’s long‑term thesis is its foundry strategy:

• Intel 18A, its next‑generation manufacturing node featuring RibbonFET transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery, is slated for mass production in 2025. The company pitches 18A as competitive with, or better than, TSMC’s upcoming 2nm process.  ^[32]
• Intel has been hosting “Foundry Direct Connect” events to show off a growing pipeline of design wins and partnerships, positioning itself as a geopolitically attractive Western alternative to TSMC for leading‑edge manufacturing.  ^[33]

There are also rumors of potential mega‑customers:

• Speculation has intensified that Apple could tap Intel for some future chip manufacturing, helping diversify away from TSMC. Intel’s stock has spiked on days when these rumors resurface, although neither company has confirmed anything.  ^[34]

The opportunity is clear: if Intel succeeds, it becomes one of only two or three viable global foundries at the bleeding edge, with a mix of internal and external customers.

But so are the risks:

• Intel has a long history of over‑promising on its process roadmap, and 18A has already faced reports of yield challenges.  ^[35]
• Foundry is a capital‑intensive, low‑margin business until scale is achieved; Intel is effectively walking a tightrope between investing enough to compete and not blowing up its balance sheet.

Intel in AI: Gaudi 3 and CPU leverage

On the AI front, Intel is attacking the opportunity from several angles:

• Gaudi 3 AI accelerators are now rolling out through partners like Dell and IBM Cloud, with Intel and third‑party benchmarks positioning Gaudi 3 as competitive with Nvidia’s H100 on performance, but at a notably lower total system cost and power draw.  ^[36]
• Official Intel price‑to‑performance data suggests an 8‑accelerator Gaudi 3 system can cost roughly half of an H100‑based system while delivering similar or better inference throughput on large language models – a compelling pitch for enterprises sensitive to total cost of ownership.  ^[37]
• Intel is also reviving its GPU and CPU lines for AI‑centric workloads – from discrete Arc GPUs to server CPUs optimized for AI‑adjacent tasks – and benefits from the fact that most AI clusters still need a lot of high‑end x86 CPUs alongside GPUs.  ^[38]

Still, Intel’s AI business is much smaller than Nvidia’s and, at least in the accelerator market, smaller than AMD’s current trajectory. Its success in AI hinges on convincing major customers that a “good‑enough but cheaper” Gaudi platform plus Intel CPUs and potentially Intel Foundry manufacturing is worth betting on.

How analysts view Intel

Wall Street is far more divided – and in some cases outright skeptical – on Intel:

• Consensus rating: Generally “Hold”, with only a small minority of analysts recommending “Buy.”  ^[39]
• Average 12‑month targets:
  • MarketBeat shows an average Intel target around $34–35, implying mid‑teens downside from the current low‑$40s share price; the range stretches from $20 on the low end to about $52 on the high end.  ^[40]
• Some commentaries warn that after a 70–100% run‑up in 2025, “the easy money is over,” even if the turnaround ultimately succeeds.  ^[41]

Valuation is trickier to read than AMD’s because Intel’s earnings are still depressed:

• Various data providers put Intel’s forward P/E in the mid‑double‑digits (around the 50s), which looks expensive relative to its current growth – but much less so if the turnaround fully takes hold.  ^[42]

Bottom line on Intel: It’s a high‑beta turnaround + foundry + AI story. If Intel does execute on 18A, wins big customers, and grows Gaudi into a mainstream alternative to Nvidia and AMD in AI, today’s price could look cheap in hindsight. If not, the stock’s 2025 rally leaves it exposed to disappointment.

AMD vs Intel stock: side‑by‑side for the AI decade

Here’s how the two look when you compare the core themes investors care about:

1. Growth and end markets

• AMD
  • Targeting $100B in annual data center revenue within five years, with 60% CAGR in that segment.  ^[43]
  • Strong momentum in AI GPUs, CPUs, and console/PC chips.
  • Deeper exposure to hyperscale AI build‑outs, plus strategic deals like the one with OpenAI.  ^[44]
• Intel
  • Modest near‑term revenue growth (low single digits) but large potential upside if foundry and AI accelerators scale.  ^[45]
  • More diversified across PCs, data centers, networking, and foundry, but historically hampered by execution issues.

Edge: AMD on visible growth; Intel on “option value” if the turnaround works.

2. Profitability and margins

• AMD enjoys mid‑50s adjusted gross margins today and has raised its medium‑term gross‑margin target to 55–58%, betting that AI chips and systems will be structurally high‑margin.  ^[46]
• Intel’s gross margin has clawed back to ~40% but remains well below past levels and AMD’s current profile, with foundry investment still a drag.  ^[47]

Edge: AMD on current margins and margin visibility.

3. Balance sheet and capital intensity

• AMD is asset‑light relative to Intel and does not operate its own fabs, which keeps capex more manageable and supports free cash flow, albeit with dependence on foundry partners like TSMC.  ^[48]
• Intel is in the middle of a historic capex surge, spending tens of billions on fabs in the U.S. and Europe. Subsidies help, but the balance sheet is doing heavy lifting, and the risk of over‑capacity if demand or customer wins disappoint is real.  ^[49]

Edge: AMD on capital efficiency; Intel on long‑term strategic assets if its bet pays off.

4. Valuation vs risk

Very roughly:

• AMD
  • Trailing P/E: ~100+
  • Forward P/E: high‑20s / low‑30s depending on estimates
  • Price‑to‑sales: >10x
  • Analyst stance: Moderate Buy, price targets above current level.  ^[50]
• Intel
  • Trailing P/E: distorted by low earnings; some datasets show extreme figures.
  • Forward P/E: mid‑double‑digits (around the 50s).  ^[51]
  • Analyst stance: Hold, with average price targets below the current share price.  ^[52]

So:

• AMD looks like a “priced for perfection” AI winner.
• Intel looks more like a “show me” turnaround that has perhaps run a bit ahead of fundamentals.

Which stock “wins” depends on what kind of investor you are

This is not personal investment advice – just a framework you can adapt to your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

AMD might better fit investors who:

• Want pure AI/data‑center exposure rather than a broad semiconductor basket.
• Believe GPU demand will stay structurally strong for years, not just a one‑off bubble.
• Are comfortable with high multiples and volatility in exchange for the chance at outsized growth.
• Expect AMD’s MI300/MI400 + Helios platform to gain share vs Nvidia and become a de facto standard at multiple cloud providers.

Intel might better fit investors who:

• Like turnaround and contrarian stories where sentiment has improved but is still cautious.
• Believe Intel can finally execute on its process roadmap and become a competitive, geopolitically favored foundry alongside TSMC.  ^[53]
• Think Gaudi 3 (and successors) can carve out a value‑oriented AI niche – a cheaper, open alternative to Nvidia’s and AMD’s platforms.  ^[54]
• Are willing to ride out multi‑year volatility and heavy capex in exchange for potential long‑term upside.

Or… it doesn’t have to be either/or

For many investors, the more realistic approach might be:

• Owning both stocks in smaller weights, expressing a view that AI compute and chips in general will compound over time, while avoiding the need to pick a single “winner”.
• Or using a broader semiconductor ETF plus a modest overweight in whichever name aligns best with your risk profile.

Again, what’s appropriate depends on your personal situation – something only you (or a qualified advisor) can judge.

Questions to ask yourself before buying AMD or Intel

Before you hit the buy button on either stock, it can help to write down your answers to a few hard questions:

1. Time horizon:
   Are you investing for 3–12 months, or 5–10 years? AMD’s and Intel’s narratives both stretch well into the 2030s.
2. Tolerance for drawdowns:
   After ~100% runs in a year, can you emotionally handle a 30–50% pullback without panic‑selling?
3. Your AI macro view:
   Do you believe the AI boom is a bubble, a supercycle, or something in between? That answer should heavily influence how comfortable you are with AMD’s and Intel’s valuations.
4. Conviction in each company’s edge:
   • For AMD, do you believe its AI GPU hardware + open ecosystem can consistently win share vs Nvidia and maintain pricing power?
   • For Intel, do you believe it can deliver 18A on time, win major foundry customers, and scale Gaudi – all while funding colossal capex?
5. Portfolio concentration:
   How much of your overall portfolio do you want in single‑name, high‑volatility semiconductor stocks vs diversified funds?

If you can’t clearly answer those questions, it may be worth taking smaller positions or focusing on broader vehicles (sector ETFs, index funds) until your conviction is higher.

The bottom line

• AMD: A dominant AI‑growth story with ambitious long‑term targets, strong margins, and enthusiastic Wall Street support – but priced for excellence, not mediocrity.
• Intel: A complex, government‑backed turnaround trying to reinvent itself as a leading‑edge foundry and credible AI alternative, with a lot already riding on future execution.

From a stock‑picking perspective, 2025 has already rewarded investors who believed in both stories. The next phase is less about whether AI is big – that seems settled – and more about who executes better, who controls costs, and who builds the stickier ecosystem.

Whichever path you choose, make sure your decision fits your risk tolerance, time horizon, and overall portfolio – and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser if you need personalized guidance.

References

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