Abidjan / London – 5 December 2025
Cocoa, the backbone of Ivory Coast’s economy and the key ingredient in the world’s chocolate, is in the middle of a sharp and confusing reversal.
After two years of historic shortages and record prices, the world’s top cocoa exporter now finds its ports jammed with beans, exporters short of cash and global market signals pointing to a small surplus. The sudden swing is battering farmers’ incomes, testing the country’s regulators and raising big questions for chocolate makers heading into 2026. [1]
A Port Glut in Abidjan and San Pedro
At the heart of the crisis are the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro, where thousands of trucks loaded with cocoa have queued in recent weeks.
Reports citing port and trade data indicate that weekly arrivals have topped 100,000 tons for at least three consecutive weeks, well above typical volumes for early December. [2]
According to analysis compiled by Red94, roughly 718,000 tons of cocoa have been delivered to ports since the new 2025/26 marketing year began on 1 October, underscoring strong harvest flows despite the turmoil. [3]
Yet a significant share of these beans remains unsold or undelivered onward because:
- International cocoa prices have fallen about 40–45% in 2025, from peaks near $9,000 per metric ton in January to around $5,500 per ton in early December. [4]
- Local exporters are suffering a severe cash crunch, struggling to secure the working capital needed to buy beans at the regulated farmgate price and finance shipment. [5]
Bloomberg reporting, cited by several market commentaries, describes a “temporary glut” at Ivorian ports as farmers rush to sell into a falling market while buyers pull back due to tighter credit and concerns that prices could drop even further. [6]
Key numbers at a glance (as of 5 December 2025)
- Port arrivals (recent weeks): 100,000+ tons per week in Abidjan and San Pedro
- Deliveries since 1 October: ~718,451 tons to ports for the 2025/26 season [7]
- Current futures price: about $5,500 per ton, down ~40% from January highs [8]
- Year‑over‑year price change: roughly –42–43% versus December 2024 levels [9]
Cash Crunch and Delayed Payments Hit Exporters and Farmers
The port congestion is as much a financial crisis as a logistical one.
Local exporters typically rely on bank credit lines and pre‑financing from international buyers. With prices tumbling and volatility still high, many of those facilities have been scaled back or repriced, leaving traders without the liquidity to purchase beans and move them quickly out of the ports. [10]
That has created a vicious circle:
- Exporters lack working capital, so they buy fewer beans.
- Trucks keep arriving at the ports, where beans wait longer in storage.
- Farmers and intermediaries are forced either to accept discounts or wait weeks to be paid.
- Port congestion worsens, raising the risk of quality losses from prolonged storage in humid conditions.
According to Africa Business Insight, citing the head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), early-season backlogs at exporters’ factories earlier this autumn created a misleading impression of oversupply, which slowed purchases and helped push prices paid to farmers below the official guaranteed level. In October and November, some farmers reportedly accepted around 2,500 CFA francs per kilogram, below the mandated 2,800 CFA farmgate price. [11]
For smallholder growers—many already living below the poverty line—those discounts are brutal. Earlier research has found that a large share of cocoa families in Ivory Coast and Ghana survive on incomes below $1 a day, and the current shock risks expanding rural poverty and child labour pressures if not contained. [12]
CCC Caps Transport Permits to Ease the Port Logjam
To regain control of the situation, the Coffee and Cocoa Council has moved aggressively.
In measures announced this week and detailed by both Africa Business Insight and market analysts:
- CCC has tightened the issuance of transport permits for cocoa trucks heading to Abidjan and San Pedro.
- Under the new rules, factories may only receive as many trucks per day as they can physically unload. As CCC boss Yves Brahima Koné put it, if a factory can handle 16 trucks in a day, only 16 will be authorised. [13]
- The aim is to prevent queues of trucks sitting idle at factories and ports, smooth daily flows and reduce the likelihood of beans spoiling in transit or in open-air holding areas.
Koné says the restrictions have already reduced waiting times and improved market efficiency as the peak harvest month of December gets underway. [14]
At the same time, CCC is trying to protect farmers’ incomes. By metering arrivals and discouraging distressed selling, the regulator hopes to keep farmgate prices anchored around the official 2,800 CFA/kg—even as international futures remain under pressure. [15]
Shrinking Output Adds Another Layer of Risk
Despite the current glut at ports, CCC projects that Ivory Coast’s cocoa output will fall to around 1.3 million tons, down sharply from about 1.7 million tons three years ago. Reversing that decline, Koné has warned, will require years of investment in trees, inputs and infrastructure. [16]
The paradox is striking:
- Near‑term congestion and weak prices suggest plenty of cocoa.
- Medium‑term production trends look fragile, raising concerns that today’s crisis could sow the seeds of tomorrow’s shortage if farmers abandon the crop or cut back on maintenance.
From Record Deficit to Surprise Surplus: What ICCO Now Sees
The domestic turmoil in Ivory Coast is unfolding just as the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) signals a turning point for the global market.
In its latest quarterly bulletin and market reports:
- ICCO now expects a global surplus of about 49,000 tons in 2024/25, the first surplus after several years of steep deficits. [17]
- That surplus is far smaller than the 142,000‑ton surplus ICCO initially projected in February, but it still marks a clear shift away from the extreme tightness of 2023/24, when the deficit was nearly 494,000 tons, the largest in more than six decades. [18]
- Global cocoa production is now estimated at 4.69 million tons, up about 7.4–7.6% from the previous season, as West African weather improved and non‑traditional producers such as Ecuador expanded output. [19]
- At the same time, global grindings have fallen around 4.3% year‑on‑year, signalling a demand slowdown as high cocoa costs filter through to chocolate prices and margins. [20]
Market analysis by Barchart/Nasdaq underscores just how soft demand has become:
- Asian Q3 2025 grindings dropped about 17% year‑on‑year to their lowest level in nine years.
- European grindings fell nearly 5%, also hitting a decade low for the third quarter.
- Data from Circana show North American chocolate candy volumes down more than 21% in the 13 weeks to early September versus a year earlier. [21]
In other words, supply has recovered faster than demand, flipping the market from fear of shortages to concern about excess, and putting sustained downward pressure on prices—even as structural issues in West Africa remain unresolved.
Nigeria, EU Rules and the Wider Supply Picture
Ivory Coast is not alone in shaping the cocoa balance.
Nigeria’s output is set to shrink
Nigeria, the world’s fifth‑largest cocoa producer, is expected to see production fall by about 11% in 2025/26 to 305,000 tons, according to that country’s Cocoa Association. [22]
This decline could partially offset the recovery elsewhere, especially if weather turns less favourable or disease pressures re‑emerge in West Africa.
EU deforestation rules temporarily delayed
Another key piece of the puzzle is regulation. The European Union’s deforestation regulation (EUDR)—which aims to restrict imports of commodities linked to deforestation, including cocoa—has been delayed by one year, keeping short‑term supply into Europe relatively unconstrained. [23]
The delay gives Ivory Coast and other producers a bit more breathing room on compliance, but it also means no immediate structural reduction in export capacity to the EU, reinforcing the near‑term surplus narrative.
How the Crisis Feeds Through the Chocolate Supply Chain
For multinational chocolate makers and confectionery brands, the 2025 cocoa rollercoaster has been double-edged:
- In early 2025, record prices squeezed margins, prompting retail price hikes and product “shrinkflation” in many markets. [24]
- As prices have collapsed, one might expect immediate relief. Instead, demand data show cautious purchasing and weaker volumes as consumers grapple with broader cost‑of‑living pressures and companies work down existing inventories. [25]
From a supply‑chain perspective, the Ivory Coast port logjam introduces extra risks:
- Quality deterioration – Beans stuck for weeks in humid coastal conditions risk mold, infestation and quality downgrades, raising costs for processors or leading to outright rejection of shipments. [26]
- Schedule disruptions – Chocolate factories in Europe and Asia plan grinding and production around expected delivery windows. Any delay can force them to adjust throughput or draw down strategic stocks.
- Price uncertainty – Buyers wary of further downside may hold off on large purchases, reinforcing the liquidity squeeze for exporters and deepening volatility.
The result is a fragile equilibrium: plenty of cocoa in the short run, but with enough stress on farmers, traders and logistics that future supply risks are actually increasing.
What Comes Next? Scenarios for 2026
With the 2025/26 main crop advancing and the dry Harmattan season approaching, traders and policy‑makers are now focused on a few critical variables. [27]
1. Weather and the Harmattan
The intensity of the Harmattan winds over the next few months will be crucial:
- Mild, well‑timed dryness could support good bean quality and maintain the production rebound.
- Severe or prolonged dryness could stress trees, cut yields and reverse the nascent surplus, especially given aging plantations and under‑investment in inputs.
ADM Investor Services notes that despite today’s strong arrivals, the approach of the dry season means production is likely to slow later in the crop year, making weather a decisive factor for the second half of 2025/26. [28]
2. Credit conditions for exporters
If local banks and international trading houses are willing to re‑extend working capital, the port congestion could ease relatively quickly as beans are moved into export channels at lower—but stable—price levels.
If, however, lenders remain cautious, smaller exporters could fail or be forced to consolidate, potentially reducing future competition and leaving farmers with fewer buyers.
3. Policy responses in Ivory Coast and Ghana
Both Ivory Coast and Ghana have used administrative pricing and regulation to protect farmers during past crises. Options now under discussion or implied by recent measures include:
- Maintaining relatively high farmgate prices despite lower futures, at the cost of squeezing exporter margins. [29]
- Adjusting export differentials and quality standards to attract buyers while still supporting producer incomes.
- Accelerating investment in replanting, disease‑resistant varieties and traceability systems, particularly with the EU’s EUDR still looming after the temporary delay.
4. Demand recovery in key consuming regions
The ICCO and market analysts caution that demand is the wild card. If global growth stabilises and consumers return to discretionary purchases, the current surplus could narrow more quickly than expected. If not, lower prices may linger, further straining producer countries. [30]
Why This Matters Beyond Commodity Markets
For Ivory Coast, cocoa represents about 40% of export revenues and a major share of rural employment, so a prolonged downturn would reverberate through everything from fiscal balances to social stability. [31]
For the rest of the world:
- Chocolate prices may not immediately mirror the fall in bean prices, but if the glut persists into 2026, consumers could ultimately see more promotions and fewer price hikes.
- Sustainability initiatives—replanting, living‑income programs, deforestation‑free certification—could be at risk if governments and companies divert funds to emergency support or if farmer incomes fall too low to justify adopting new practices.
- Financial markets may see renewed volatility in soft commodities, with cocoa joining coffee and sugar as key indicators of how climate, geopolitics and regulation are reshaping food systems.
Bottom Line
As of 5 December 2025, the Ivory Coast cocoa story is one of contradictions:
- Ports overflowing with beans, yet long‑term output under threat.
- A newly minted global surplus, yet deepening distress among farmers and exporters.
- Cheaper cocoa on paper, but uncertain relief for chocolate makers and consumers.
How regulators handle the port restrictions, how quickly credit flows return, and whether weather and demand cooperate will determine whether this moment becomes a short‑lived dislocation—or the opening chapter of a more profound restructuring of the global cocoa economy.
References
1. www.ecofinagency.com, 2. www.red94.net, 3. www.red94.net, 4. www.red94.net, 5. www.red94.net, 6. www.bloomberg.com, 7. www.red94.net, 8. www.red94.net, 9. www.red94.net, 10. www.red94.net, 11. africabusinessinsight.com, 12. www.icco.org, 13. africabusinessinsight.com, 14. africabusinessinsight.com, 15. africabusinessinsight.com, 16. africabusinessinsight.com, 17. www.ecofinagency.com, 18. www.ecofinagency.com, 19. www.ecofinagency.com, 20. www.ecofinagency.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.barchart.com, 23. www.barchart.com, 24. www.ecofinagency.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.red94.net, 27. www.admis.com, 28. www.admis.com, 29. africabusinessinsight.com, 30. www.ecofinagency.com, 31. www.icco.org
