SpaceX is back in the financial headlines in a big way. According to multiple reports on 5 December 2025, Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company is preparing a new secondary share sale that could value the firm at as much as $800 billion, while telling investors it is now targeting an initial public offering (IPO) in the second half of 2026. [1]
If those numbers hold, SpaceX would not only cement its dominance in the commercial space sector — it would likely become the most valuable privately held company in the world, leapfrogging even AI powerhouse OpenAI. [2]
Below is a deep dive into what’s been reported so far, how it compares with SpaceX’s fundamentals, and what the latest news might mean for investors watching the countdown to a potential 2026 IPO.
Key Takeaways
- Secondary share sale at eye‑popping valuation: SpaceX is kicking off a new tender offer for insider shares that could value the company at up to $800 billion, double a recent $400 billion round. [3]
- Valuation range still in flux: Bloomberg‑linked reporting suggests one scenario where insider shares are priced around $300 each, implying a valuation closer to $560 billion, underscoring that final terms are not yet locked in. [4]
- Late‑2026 IPO targeted: SpaceX has told investors and banks it plans to pursue a public listing in the second half of 2026, potentially for the entire company including Starlink. [5]
- Most valuable private company: At an $800 billion figure, SpaceX would surpass OpenAI, which was valued around $500 billion following a major deal with Microsoft earlier in 2025. [6]
- Fundamentals remain strong: Independent estimates suggest SpaceX generated about $14.2 billion in revenue in 2024, with Starlink already the largest and fastest‑growing part of the business. [7]
A Secondary Share Sale That Could Value SpaceX at $800 Billion
The latest move is not a traditional fundraising round, but another secondary share sale — a mechanism SpaceX has repeatedly used to give employees and early investors liquidity while staying private.
According to The Wall Street Journal, SpaceX’s chief financial officer Bret Johnsen recently briefed investors on a new tender offer that would value the company at around $800 billion, roughly doubling the $400 billion valuation from a recent secondary sale earlier this year. [8]
A Reuters summary of the WSJ reporting notes that:
- The transaction is focused on existing shareholders selling stock, rather than SpaceX issuing new shares to raise fresh primary capital.
- The headline valuation would place SpaceX ahead of OpenAI as the world’s most valuable private company. [9]
Separate coverage drawing on Bloomberg’s reporting adds nuance: one preliminary scenario reportedly under discussion would price insider shares at around $300 apiece, which would imply a valuation closer to $560 billion, not $800 billion. [10]
In other words, the final valuation will depend on the agreed price and share count when the tender formally launches. The $800 billion headline looks increasingly like an upper‑bound target designed to test investor appetite in a heated market.
How Today’s Valuation Compares With SpaceX’s Recent History
To understand how dramatic an $800 billion figure would be, it’s worth looking at SpaceX’s valuation trajectory over the last three years:
- January 2023: SpaceX raised about $750 million in primary funding at a $137 billion valuation. [11]
- Mid‑2024: A tender offer valued the company at roughly $210 billion, with shares around $112. [12]
- December 2024: A secondary share sale at $185 per share pushed the valuation to about $350 billion, including a $500 million stock buyback by the company itself. [13]
- Summer 2025: Another secondary sale valued SpaceX near $400 billion, according to private‑market analysis and media reporting. [14]
- December 2025: The new tender offer is pitched at up to $800 billion, with some scenarios pointing nearer $560 billion based on a ~$300 share price. [15]
Independent data provider Sacra estimates that SpaceX generated $14.2 billion in revenue in 2024, growing 63% year‑over‑year, with Starlink contributing about $7.7 billion and roughly 58% of total revenue. [16]
Even using those 2024 numbers, an $800 billion valuation would equate to more than 56x trailing revenue; a $560 billion outcome still implies around 40x. That is rich even by the standards of high‑growth frontier tech, suggesting investors are pricing in:
- Massive future cash flows from a global broadband monopoly‑like Starlink footprint.
- The option value of Starship, lunar missions, in‑space manufacturing and direct‑to‑phone connectivity. [17]
For context, private‑market platform Forge Global currently pegs a derived “Forge Price” for SpaceX shares around $263 per share as of early December 2025, implying that any tender priced near $300 would represent only a modest premium to recent secondary trading. [18]
What SpaceX Told Investors: IPO Targeted for the Second Half of 2026
Alongside the tender, the other big headline on 5 December 2025 is SpaceX’s IPO timeline.
According to The Information, relayed and confirmed by Reuters and several financial outlets, SpaceX has told investors and representatives of financial institutions that it plans to pursue an IPO in the second half of 2026. [19]
Key elements from these reports:
- The company is considering a public listing of the entire business, including Starlink, rather than spinning off the satellite internet division separately. [20]
- This would mark a shift from Elon Musk’s earlier comments that Starlink would only list once its revenue was “smooth and predictable”, with some analysts previously expecting a Starlink‑first IPO. [21]
- SpaceX has not yet filed an S‑1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — the formal document required for a U.S. IPO. As blockchain‑focused coverage points out, the S‑1 would be the real “go” signal traders are waiting for. [22]
Some coverage, particularly from crypto and trading communities, still frames the late‑2026 IPO as a rumor rather than an official commitment, noting that the company has not made a public announcement and retains flexibility to adjust timing. [23]
Forecasts: From Market Skepticism to “Outrageous Predictions” of a Trillion‑Dollar IPO
The new 2026 guidance arrives against a backdrop of wildly different expectations about when — and at what price — SpaceX will go public.
Earlier in 2025: Low Odds for a Near‑Term IPO
As recently as August 2025, prediction‑market data tracked by QuiverQuant suggested only about a 9% implied probability that SpaceX would confirm an IPO before 1 January 2026. [24]
Forbes coverage in late November 2025 likewise highlighted that no IPO had been announced and that most investors’ only realistic exposure remained through funds that hold SpaceX shares privately, rather than any public ticker. [25]
Saxo’s “Outrageous Predictions”: SpaceX Lists at $1 Trillion+
At the other end of the spectrum, Saxo Bank’s recently released “Outrageous Predictions 2026” — a series of explicitly low‑probability, high‑impact scenarios — imagines a world where a SpaceX IPO in 2026 launches at a valuation above $1 trillion, sparking a boom in an “extraterrestrial economy” built around space‑based manufacturing and lunar real estate. [26]
Saxo is clear these are thought experiments, not base‑case forecasts, but they illustrate how investors are starting to think about the second‑order effects of SpaceX going public:
- New capital flowing into space infrastructure, lunar missions, and microgravity biotech,
- A potential repricing of the entire commercial space sector, from Blue Origin to Rocket Lab. [27]
Trading and Crypto Cross‑Currents
Beyond equities, crypto and derivatives traders are already gaming out what a SpaceX IPO might mean:
- Blockchain.News notes that rumors of a late‑2026 IPO have historically driven spikes in trading interest for assets linked to Elon Musk, especially Dogecoin (DOGE) and Tesla (TSLA). [28]
- Past Musk‑related headlines have coincided with double‑digit percentage moves in DOGE trading volumes, and some traders are positioning for similar “headline beta” if SpaceX formally files for an IPO. [29]
Does the Valuation Make Sense? The Bull Case
For the bullish camp, the latest numbers simply reflect how far ahead SpaceX now is across multiple markets.
1. Starlink’s Scale and Growth
Sacra’s dataset paints an aggressive growth picture for Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet arm:
- Revenue of about $7.7 billion in 2024, representing 83% year‑over‑year growth.
- Roughly 4.6 million subscribers in 2024, growing to 8.5 million subscribers by September 2025.
- Starlink projected to contribute around 70% of total SpaceX revenue in 2025. [30]
With direct‑to‑cell partnerships (like the EchoStar spectrum deal and expanded T‑Mobile service) and airline roll‑outs underway, bulls argue that Starlink is on a glide path from a capital‑intensive project to a cash machine with telecom‑like margins. [31]
2. A Near‑Monopoly on Low‑Cost Launch
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets have reset expectations on launch cadence and price:
- Over 300 launches with more than 260 successful re‑flights, and mission costs dramatically below incumbents thanks to reusability and vertical integration. [32]
- An estimated 5–10x cost advantage per ton to orbit relative to traditional providers. [33]
This dominance feeds a powerful flywheel: launch revenue funds Starlink deployment and Starship development, which in turn unlocks new categories like on‑orbit manufacturing, complex lunar logistics and potentially even “data centers in space”.
3. Government & Defense Tailwinds
SpaceX has become a critical national‑security contractor for the United States:
- Sacra reports that in November 2025, SpaceX was lined up for a $2 billion Pentagon satellite contract under the Golden Dome program, with potential for hundreds of satellites dedicated to moving‑target tracking. [34]
- The company already handles a large share of NASA and Department of Defense launches, giving it revenue visibility and political leverage that few startups enjoy. [35]
4. The “Datacenter in Space” Narrative
An influential November 2025 note from IPO Club argues that markets may still be undervaluing SpaceX’s role as the only integrated platform capable of building an “orbital compute layer”:
- Starlink’s laser‑linked satellite network,
- Starship’s heavy‑lift capacity,
- And global low‑latency interconnects together form the backbone for edge computing in orbit. [36]
In this framing, SpaceX is not just a rocket or broadband company — it is the physical infrastructure for AI and cloud in space, analogous to owning the early hyperscale data‑center build‑out on Earth.
From that perspective, bulls argue that even a 40–56x trailing revenue multiple might prove cheap if the company successfully monetizes this stack and maintains its technological lead into the 2030s.
The Bear Case: Execution Risk, Governance, and IPO Uncertainty
Critics and cautious investors see a different picture — one where the risk profile is rising just as the valuation explodes.
1. Execution Risk at Massive Scale
Starlink remains massively capital intensive:
- Tens of billions have already been invested in launching and refreshing the constellation;
- Direct‑to‑phone services and global regulatory approvals add layers of complexity and cost. [37]
If subscriber growth slows, ARPU drops, or regulatory pushback grows in key markets, the business could fall short of the cash‑flow assumptions baked into today’s valuations.
2. Governance and Key‑Man Risk
SpaceX is deeply tied to Elon Musk, whose leadership style and public behavior have already attracted controversy at Tesla and X (formerly Twitter).
Public‑market investors may demand:
- Stronger independent oversight,
- Clearer conflict‑of‑interest safeguards between Musk’s various companies,
- And more traditional corporate governance than the private company currently operates with.
Any perception that governance falls short could weigh on the stock post‑IPO, regardless of growth.
3. IPO Timing Still Not Guaranteed
While SpaceX has reportedly told investors it is targeting late 2026, the company has not:
- Filed an S‑1,
- Set a formal listing venue,
- Or indicated whether it would pursue a direct listing, traditional IPO, or another structure. [38]
Analysts note that market conditions, interest‑rate expectations, and geopolitical risk could all prompt delays. And SpaceX has the luxury of staying private longer thanks to its ability to fund operations through customer cash flow and private markets.
What Does This Mean for Investors Today?
For now, nothing changes for retail investors: SpaceX remains a private company without a ticker, and access is largely limited to:
- Private‑market platforms,
- Funds and venture vehicles that hold SpaceX shares,
- Or indirect exposure via suppliers, partners and customers. [39]
However, the 5 December 2025 news does change the narrative and expectations in several ways:
- Valuation signaling: By floating an $800 billion tender, SpaceX is effectively testing the upper bound of what investors will pay ahead of an IPO. If demand is strong even near that level, it strengthens the case for a premium public‑market debut. [40]
- IPO clock starts ticking: Once a company explicitly tells institutional investors it is aiming for a late‑2026 IPO, bankers, regulators and large funds begin planning around that timeframe — even if it later slips.
- Sector repricing: Competitors like Blue Origin, Rocket Lab and other launch providers may see their own private and public valuations revisited in light of SpaceX’s new benchmark and the implied value of space infrastructure. [41]
- Cross‑asset spillovers: From Dogecoin traders to AI and defense investors, SpaceX’s move is likely to reverberate across multiple markets, especially once any S‑1 filing makes the IPO process official. [42]
Quick FAQ: SpaceX Valuation and 2026 IPO
Is SpaceX really worth $800 billion now?
Not yet — that figure is a target valuation for a new secondary share sale. Final pricing could imply anything from around $560 billion to $800 billion, depending on the per‑share price investors accept. [43]
When is the SpaceX IPO?
SpaceX has told investors it is aiming for an IPO in the second half of 2026, but no formal filing has been made. Until an S‑1 appears, the date should be treated as guidance, not a guarantee. [44]
Will Starlink be spun out or included in the IPO?
Current reporting suggests SpaceX is considering listing the entire company, including Starlink, rather than spinning it off. That’s a shift from earlier speculation that Starlink might IPO first. [45]
How can I invest in SpaceX before the IPO?
For most investors, the only avenues today are private funds and secondary‑market platforms that occasionally offer SpaceX shares — typically limited to accredited or institutional investors and subject to strict liquidity constraints. [46]
Could a SpaceX IPO be valued above $1 trillion?
Some speculative forecasts, such as Saxo Bank’s “Outrageous Predictions 2026,” imagine a trillion‑dollar‑plus IPO, but these are explicitly framed as low‑probability thought experiments, not official forecasts. [47]
As of early December 2025, one thing is clear: SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company — it is the central asset in the emerging space economy. Whether the market ultimately endorses an $800 billion or even $1 trillion‑plus valuation will depend on how convincingly it can turn that ambition into durable, cash‑generating businesses over the next few years.
References
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