Moderna (MRNA) Stock Jumps on New Vaccine Safety Data – Latest News, Forecast & Analysis for December 5, 2025

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) closed today as one of the more talked‑about healthcare names on Wall Street, with the stock rebounding sharply after a bruising year of falling COVID-19 vaccine sales, pipeline setbacks, and rising regulatory risk.

Today’s move comes as investors digest a huge, real‑world French study supporting the long‑term safety and effectiveness of mRNA COVID vaccines, fresh details of a $1.5 billion loan deal, and updated guidance pointing to a slow path back toward growth and eventual profitability. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into where Moderna stock stands right now, what’s driving today’s rally, and how analysts and management see 2026–2028 shaping up.

Moderna Stock Today: Price, Performance and Volatility

• Last price (Dec 5, 2025): about $27–28 per share, up roughly 6–9% intraday on today’s news, according to real‑time quote and market‑mover reports. ^[2]
• Year-to-date performance:down ~34–35% in 2025, badly lagging the broader market. ^[3]
• 52‑week range: roughly $22–23 (low) to $48–49 (high), so even after today’s bounce the stock trades around 40% below its 52‑week peak. ^[4]
• Volatility: one analysis notes over 50 trading days with >5–6% daily moves over the past three years, underscoring just how jumpy this name is. ^[5]

In other words: today’s pop is meaningful, but it’s happening inside a long downtrend from the pandemic highs, when Moderna briefly traded near $500 per share. ^[6]

Why MRNA Is Jumping on December 5, 2025

1. Massive French Study Backs Long‑Term Safety and Benefit

The immediate catalyst for today’s rally is a nationwide French study covering roughly 28 million people, which looked at multi‑year outcomes for adults who received mRNA COVID vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer). ^[7]

According to a StockStory summary syndicated by the Chronicle‑Journal:

• Vaccinated individuals had about a 75% lower risk of dying from COVID‑19 compared with unvaccinated people.
• They also saw roughly a 25% lower risk of death from any cause, suggesting the vaccines did not increase overall mortality and may be associated with better long‑term outcomes in this population. ^[8]

The underlying research, published in JAMA Network Open, found significantly reduced non‑COVID mortality risks for both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over a four‑year follow‑up. ^[9]

Market reaction:

• Mid‑afternoon, Moderna shares were up about 6.4%, according to the StockStory piece. ^[10]
• A separate market wrap from Investopedia later noted Moderna finished the session up close to 9%, making it one of the bigger gainers in the S&P 500. ^[11]

For investors, this is important because:

• It directly counters narratives that mRNA vaccines may have large long‑term safety issues.
• It reinforces the value of Moderna’s core COVID franchise, even as annual booster demand declines.
• It strengthens Moderna’s argument that mRNA is a viable, scalable platform for other vaccines and therapeutics.

2. Short‑Term Technical Tailwind

An intraday technical analysis from AInvest noted:

• Today’s move pushed MRNA back above key short‑term moving averages and off its 52‑week lows.
• However, longer‑term indicators (like MACD and longer moving averages) still paint a “short‑term bullish, long‑term cautious” picture. ^[12]

Traders see room for further upside if the stock can hold above resistance around the high‑$20s, but the broader trend remains down.

The Dark Cloud: FDA Memo and Tighter Vaccine Rules

Today’s good news lands just days after a brutal regulatory scare.

Earlier this week, multiple outlets reported on an internal memo from Vinay Prasad, the recently appointed head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER). The memo:

• Cited internal analyses suggesting at least 10 child deaths between 2021–2024 may have been caused by myocarditis following COVID vaccination. ^[13]
• Called for stricter vaccine approval standards, including less reliance on small immunogenicity studies for label expansions and more robust outcome data. ^[14]

The market reaction was swift:

• Moderna shares fell roughly 7% on the day, with other vaccine names (BioNTech, Novavax, Pfizer) also dropping. ^[15]

Analysts at William Blair and others warned that:

• Longer and more demanding trials could raise costs and delay approvals for new vaccines, just as Moderna is trying to broaden its respiratory and latent virus portfolio. ^[16]

This regulatory overhang hasn’t gone away. Today’s French data is positive for the science and public perception, but:

• If the FDA follows through with stricter requirements, Moderna could face more expensive, slower pathways to market for new vaccines – exactly the products it’s counting on to replace fading COVID revenues.

Fundamentals in 2025: Covid Hangover, But Cost Cuts Are Working

Q3 2025: Big Beat on a Smaller Business

Moderna’s Q3 2025 results, reported in early November, show a company still shrinking versus the pandemic boom – but managing that decline better than feared. ^[17]

Key numbers:

• Revenue: ~$1.02 billion, down about 45% year‑over‑year, but above Wall Street estimates around $0.9 billion.
• EPS:–$0.51 per share, a much smaller loss than the roughly –$2.00 that analysts expected.
• Net loss: about $200 million.
• Cash & investments: around $6.6 billion at quarter‑end, down from $7.5 billion at Q2 but still a hefty cash pile. ^[18]

Management also tightened full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.6–2.0 billion, with:

• U.S. revenue: $1.0–1.3 billion (mostly COVID shots).
• International: $0.6–0.7 billion. ^[19]

Aggressive Cost Cutting

Moderna has pivoted aggressively from “pandemic build‑out” to leaner operations:

• Combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A fell about 34–35% year‑over‑year in Q3. ^[20]
• The company now expects 2025 cash operating costs to drop to around $4.6 billion, roughly 50% lower than in 2023. ^[21]

That’s a huge shift for a company that once spent like a mega‑cap during the vaccine rush. The cost cuts allowed Moderna to:

• Beat earnings expectations,
• Raise its year‑end 2025 cash guidance to $6.5–7.0 billion – later bumped higher again after the new loan (more on that below). ^[22]

Q2 2025 Shows How Deep the Reset Is

To appreciate the scale of the reset, remember that Q2 2025 revenue:

• Was just $142 million, down ~41% from the same quarter in 2024, with a net loss of roughly $0.8 billion. ^[23]

The COVID boom is long over; Moderna is rebuilding from a much smaller revenue base.

Pipeline Update: From Pandemic Hero to Seasonal Franchise and Beyond

Moderna’s entire equity story now rests on its pipeline: turning a shrinking COVID business into a multi‑product vaccine and therapeutics franchise.

Seasonal Respiratory Vaccines

At its November Analyst Day, Moderna laid out a three‑year plan built around a “large seasonal vaccine franchise” for at‑risk populations. ^[24]

Key programs:

• Spikevax® (mRNA‑1273) – Original COVID vaccine
  • Approved in about 40 countries. ^[25]
• mNEXSPIKE® (mRNA‑1283) – Next‑generation COVID vaccine
  • Approved in the U.S. and Canada, with filings for approvals in Australia, EU, Japan and Taiwan targeting 2026. ^[26]
• mRESVIA® (mRNA‑1345) – RSV vaccine
  • Approved in 40 countries for adults 60+ and in 31 countries for adults 18–59 at increased risk. ^[27]
• mRNA‑1010 – Flu vaccine
  • In Phase 3 with regulatory submissions planned in the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia by January 2026. ^[28]
• mRNA‑1083 – Flu + COVID combination vaccine
  • Under review by the European Medicines Agency and filed in Canada.
  • The company is awaiting further guidance from the U.S. FDA after prior delays. ^[29]
• mRNA‑1403 – Norovirus vaccine
  • A Phase 3 trial aiming to enroll ~25,000 adults has struggled to accrue enough cases; it now needs a second Northern Hemisphere season (2025–26) after earlier moving to the Southern Hemisphere and even facing a temporary FDA hold over a Guillain‑Barré case. ^[30]

Collectively, Moderna expects to expand this seasonal franchise from three to as many as six approved products by 2028, including a first‑to‑market flu/COVID combo and a Norovirus vaccine. ^[31]

Oncology: Personalized Cancer Vaccines

The most important long‑term growth driver may be oncology, especially intismeran autogene (mRNA‑4157), developed with Merck:

• There are eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials running across multiple tumor types, including melanoma, non‑small cell lung cancer, bladder, and renal cell carcinoma. ^[32]
• Reuters notes Moderna and Merck could bring a late‑stage individualized cancer vaccine to market as early as 2027, with detailed Phase 3 data expected in 2026 if timelines hold. ^[33]

Moderna is also advancing:

• mRNA‑4359, a cancer antigen therapy targeting both tumor cells and immunosuppressive cells (Phase 1/2). ^[34]

Rare Diseases

Two rare‑disease programs are being positioned as registrational:

• mRNA‑3927 for propionic acidemia has reached target enrollment in a registrational study. ^[35]
• mRNA‑3705 for methylmalonic acidemia has been selected for the FDA’s START program, with a registrational trial expected to begin in 2026. ^[36]

CMV Failure and Pipeline Pruning

Not all the news has been good:

• In late October, Moderna announced that its CMV vaccine mRNA‑1647 failed its Phase 3 trial, with efficacy of just 6–23%, far below the company’s target. It is ending the congenital CMV program for now. ^[37]
• At Analyst Day, Moderna also said it is discontinuing late‑stage programs for:
  • HSV (mRNA‑1608)
  • Varicella‑Zoster virus (mRNA‑1468)
  • GSD1a (mRNA‑3745) ^[38]

Management insists these cuts do not change 2025 guidance or the 2028 break‑even goal, but they clearly trim some of the long‑term optionality investors were hoping for.

Balance Sheet, Ares Loan and U.S. Manufacturing Build‑Out

$1.5 Billion Term Loan from Ares

On November 20, Moderna announced a five‑year, $1.5 billion term loan facility from Ares Management Credit Funds:

• $600 million was drawn upfront.
• $400 million is available via delayed‑draw term loans through 2027.
• Another $500 million is available through 2028, contingent on achieving late‑stage regulatory milestones. ^[39]

Key points:

• The loan is non‑dilutive (no new shares issued) but adds leverage and comes with weekly minimum liquidity covenants, according to Simply Wall St’s breakdown. ^[40]
• Moderna raised its projected 2025 year‑end cash balance to $7.1–7.6 billion, up from $6.5–7.0 billion previously, directly tied to the initial draw. ^[41]

Analysts and commentators see this as:

• Breathing room to continue funding late‑stage trials and potential post‑marketing commitments even if COVID and RSV sales remain lumpy. ^[42]
• A sign that Moderna does not want to issue equity at current depressed valuations but is willing to accept higher debt costs to preserve flexibility.

$140 Million Norwood Expansion

Separately, Moderna is investing over $140 million to add fill‑finish manufacturing at its Norwood, Massachusetts facility, completing a U.S. end‑to‑end mRNA production network. ^[43]

The project:

• Is expected to complete by mid‑2027,
• Should improve control over supply, and
• Is part of a broader strategy to exit contract manufacturers and rely on company‑owned facilities in the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia. ^[44]

What Wall Street Is Saying: Ratings, Targets and Big Money Flows

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

There’s a remarkable spread in how different sources see Moderna:

• MarketBeat (as of Dec 4) shows:
  • Consensus rating: “Reduce”
  • Average price target: about $29.46, only modestly above the current share price
  • Breakdown: 2 Buys, 12 Holds, 5 Sells. ^[45]
• Barchart’s October analysis reports:
  • Consensus “Hold” based on 24 analysts
  • Average 12‑month target:$42.50, implying ~50–60% upside
  • High estimate:$198, suggesting some extremely bullish outliers who still see blockbuster potential if the pipeline succeeds. ^[46]
• Simply Wall St pegs a fair value around $37–38 per share, about 40–50% above current levels, based on forecasts of roughly $3.5 billion in revenue and close to $500 million in earnings by 2028 if management delivers. ^[47]

In short: the consensus stance is cautious, but not hopeless. Many analysts see upside from here, but only if Moderna executes on its pipeline and cost reductions.

Institutional Flows: Norges Bank Steps In

On December 4, MarketBeat reported that Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund):

• Bought about 3.44 million shares of Moderna in Q2,
• A position worth ~$95 million, equating to roughly 0.88% of the company. ^[48]

Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively hold over 75% of the float, signaling that big money hasn’t abandoned the name, even if sentiment is cautious. ^[49]

Bull vs. Bear Case for Moderna Stock in Late 2025

The Bull Case

Bulls argue that:

1. The platform works.
   The new French data reinforces that mRNA vaccines can deliver large, durable reductions in COVID mortality without increasing overall death risk, bolstering confidence in the underlying technology. ^[50]
2. A real seasonal business is emerging.
   With COVID and RSV vaccines already on the market and flu/flu‑COVID combo shots on deck, Moderna could build a multi‑billion‑dollar seasonal respiratory franchise by late this decade. ^[51]
3. Oncology and rare diseases are big optionality.
   If intismeran (mRNA‑4157) and other cancer/rare‑disease programs deliver strong Phase 3 data, Moderna could transition from a one‑product COVID story to a diversified, higher‑margin therapeutics company. ^[52]
4. Cost discipline + cash + Ares loan buy time.
   With > $7 billion expected in year‑end cash and investments and cost cuts accelerating, management has several years of runway to make this transition without needing to sell equity at current prices. ^[53]
5. Valuation is already washed out.
   The stock is:
   • Down ~35% year‑to‑date,
   • More than 80% below its all‑time high,
   • Trading at levels where even modest success in the pipeline could justify substantial upside, according to more optimistic models. ^[54]

The Bear Case

Bears focus on:

1. Revenue cliff and dependence on a shrinking market.
   COVID booster uptake is declining; Q2 revenue was just $142 million, and even Q3’s $1 billion was far below pandemic levels. Moderna remains heavily reliant on COVID, and RSV uptake has been weaker than hoped. ^[55]
2. Regulatory risk just went up.
   The FDA memo and talk of tighter approval standards could slow and complicate the journey for every new vaccine, increasing costs and delaying cash flows. ^[56]
3. Pipeline setbacks are real.
   CMV failure and the discontinuation of multiple late‑stage programs (HSV, VZV, GSD1a) show that not every mRNA program will work, and some high‑value markets are now off the table, at least for the near term. ^[57]
4. Debt adds another layer of risk.
   The $1.5 billion loan is helpful in the short run but introduces interest costs and covenants at a time when cash flows are negative and guidance depends on unproven future products. ^[58]
5. Analysts are lukewarm.
   The “Reduce/Hold” consensus and relatively modest average price targets suggest Wall Street isn’t convinced yet that Moderna can fully grow into its post‑COVID ambitions. ^[59]

Moderna Stock Forecast: 2026–2028 Scenarios

Moderna’s own guidance and external models outline a high‑uncertainty but potentially high‑reward path:

• Management targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, driven by:
  • Long‑term supply partnerships in the UK, Canada and Australia,
  • Increased demand for mNEXSPIKE and the rollout of additional respiratory vaccines. ^[60]
• Cost plans:
  • Cash costs of roughly $4.2 billion in 2026,
  • $3.5–3.9 billion in 2027,
  • Cash break‑even targeted by 2028. ^[61]
• Simply Wall St’s base case sees ~$3.5 billion in revenue and nearly $0.5 billion in earnings by 2028, implying a fair value in the high‑$30s per share. ^[62]

But that’s just one path. Realistically:

• Upside scenario:
  • Flu, flu‑COVID combo, RSV, norovirus and COVID boosters together generate multi‑billion seasonal revenue,
  • At least one oncology program (like mRNA‑4157) becomes a commercial success by 2027–2028,
  • Regulatory tightening is manageable.
    In this case, the more bullish price targets (above $70–$100) start to look less fanciful over a multi‑year horizon.
• Downside scenario:
  • Booster uptake keeps falling, RSV and flu underperform,
  • Regulatory changes slow approvals,
  • Oncology data disappoints or competition dominates.
    Under that scenario, Moderna could remain cash‑burning and highly volatile, and the new debt load might start to feel heavier.

Given the wide spread in analyst and modelled fair values, Moderna is clearly a high‑risk, high‑uncertainty stock – and the market is pricing in a lot of execution risk.

Takeaways for Investors

• Today’s spike is driven by science: a massive French study offering strong real‑world reassurance on the long‑term safety and effectiveness of Moderna’s vaccines. That’s a big win for the platform.
• The overhang is macro and regulatory: tighter FDA scrutiny and falling COVID demand are structural challenges that no single data release can erase.
• The next 2–3 years are about execution: bringing flu, combo, RSV and norovirus vaccines to market at scale, while pushing personalized cancer and rare‑disease programs through late‑stage trials.
• Valuation reflects both fear and optionality: the stock looks cheap versus pandemic highs and some long‑term fair‑value models, but that discount is there for a reason.

If you’re considering Moderna, it’s worth treating it as a speculative biotech position, sizing it accordingly, and assuming very bumpy volatility along the way. This article is for information and news purposes only and is not financial or medical advice—speak with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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