Published: December 5, 2025 – Ticker: NYSE: VSCO
Victoria’s Secret & Co. stock is back in the spotlight. On Friday, December 5, 2025, VSCO shares jumped almost 18% to around $49 after the lingerie retailer delivered third‑quarter results and guidance that comfortably beat Wall Street expectations. [1]
The company posted 9% year‑over‑year revenue growth, sharply narrowed losses and expanded margins as it pulled back on steep discounting and leaned more on full‑price sales. At the same time, Victoria’s Secret raised its full‑year 2025 outlook for sales, operating income and earnings per share, signalling growing confidence in its multi‑year “Path to Potential” turnaround plan. [2]
Yet even after this stronger‑than‑expected quarter, most published Wall Street price targets still sit well below today’s share price, raising a key question for investors: has VSCO already priced in the recovery, or is there still room for upside if the turnaround sticks? [3]
VSCO stock today: big move on heavy volume
As of Friday’s close, Victoria’s Secret & Co. finished near $49 per share; MarketBeat shows a $49.01 close, up 17.89% on the day, with a modest pullback in after‑hours trading. [4]
Trading activity spiked as well. Data compiled by StockTitan indicates volume of about 4.3 million shares, roughly 1.8 times the stock’s 20‑day average of 2.34 million—evidence that Friday’s rally drew in fresh money as well as short‑covering. [5]
The move caps a dramatic swing in sentiment over 2025. Back in late August, Bloomberg reporting via FashionNetwork noted that VSCO shares were down about 45% year‑to‑date even as management raised its outlook, and activist investors were pushing for changes to the board and strategy. [6] Following a stronger Q2 and now a standout Q3, Investopedia calculates that the stock is up about 13% for the year after Friday’s jump—an impressive reversal in a few months. [7]
Q3 2025 results: revenue growth, comps and margins
For the quarter ended November 1, 2025, Victoria’s Secret generated net sales of $1.472 billion, a 9% increase versus $1.347 billion a year earlier and ahead of its own guidance range of $1.39–$1.42 billion. [8]
Total comparable sales rose 8% year over year. Investopedia notes that comparable store sales increased about 5%, and when direct‑to‑consumer sales are included, the total comp figure matches the 8% reported by the company. [9]
By segment and geography:
- North America sales grew about 5.4% to $778 million. [10]
- International revenue surged 33.5% to roughly $264.8 million. [11]
- Direct‑to‑consumer sales climbed 4.3% to about $428.5 million, helped by higher full‑price selling. [12]
On the bottom line, the company still reported a loss—but a much smaller one. Reported net loss was $37 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared with a $56 million loss ($0.71 per share) in Q3 2024. On an adjusted basis, the net loss narrowed to $22 million, or $0.27 per share, better than guidance that had called for a significantly wider deficit. [13]
Operating performance also improved sharply. VSCO recorded an operating loss of $19 million, compared with a $47 million operating loss a year ago. Adjusted operating income was essentially breakeven at $0 million, far better than management’s previous forecast for a $35–55 million adjusted operating loss and an improvement on last year’s $28 million adjusted operating loss. [14]
Critically, profitability metrics moved in the right direction. Management highlighted a 170‑basis‑point expansion in adjusted gross margin, driven primarily by fewer promotions and more full‑price sales. [15]
Guidance raised: stronger outlook for holiday and full‑year 2025
With Q3 coming in ahead of expectations and early Q4 trends described as “solid,” Victoria’s Secret raised its full‑year 2025 guidance across all major metrics. [16]
New full‑year 2025 outlook
- Net sales: $6.45–$6.48 billion (up from $6.33–$6.41 billion). [17]
- Adjusted operating income: $350–$375 million (previously $270–$320 million). [18]
- Adjusted EPS: $2.40–$2.65 (up from $1.80–$2.20). [19]
For the holiday‑heavy fourth quarter, the company is guiding to:
- Q4 net sales: $2.17–$2.20 billion vs. $2.106 billion in Q4 2024. [20]
- Q4 adjusted operating income: $265–$290 million. [21]
- Q4 adjusted EPS: $2.20–$2.45. [22]
Tariffs remain a meaningful earnings headwind, but management now expects about $90 million of net tariff impact in 2025, slightly better than the prior estimate of $100 million. [23]
Finimize summarised the market reaction bluntly: better‑than‑expected earnings plus a brighter full‑year outlook surprised analysts and sent VSCO shares higher even before the opening bell. [24]
Inside the turnaround: “Path to Potential,” brand reboot and beauty strength
Friday’s rally is part of a broader story that began before 2025. In late 2023, Victoria’s Secret unveiled its “Path to Potential” strategic plan, centred on strengthening its core intimates business, sharpening its brand positioning, improving product and go‑to‑market execution, enhancing the customer experience and accelerating global growth. [25]
Even as fundamentals began to improve in 2025, investor pressure remained intense. A Bloomberg piece in August (via FashionNetwork) pointed out that activist investors were pushing for changes to the board and strategy while the stock was still down roughly 45% year‑to‑date, despite the company raising its revenue outlook to as much as $6.41 billion at the time. [26]
StockTitan’s chronology of company events shows that Q2 2025 results beat guidance and prompted the first guidance increase, and now Q3 has repeated that pattern—beating both internal and external expectations and triggering another guidance uplift. [27]
On the brand side, management has pivoted back toward Victoria’s Secret’s “sexy” heritage, while trying to modernize its message. Barron’s describes the “Path to Potential” playbook as emphasizing a return to more overtly sensual marketing, disciplined pricing with fewer markdowns, and increased international expansion. [28]
The most visible expression of that shift was an October 15 fashion show that resurrected the brand’s famous runway “angels.” According to reporting in the New York Post, the show functioned as a powerful customer‑acquisition event, helped drive a 9.2% quarterly sales increase to roughly $1.5 billion, and contributed to a stock surge of more than 15%. The article notes that high‑income customers continued to buy even after bra prices were raised by $5–$10, suggesting that at least some shoppers are willing to pay up for the brand. [29]
At the same time, the company has attempted to broaden its appeal. The October show and recent campaigns featured a wider mix of athletes, plus‑size models and different ages, and management has refocused on rebuilding momentum at Pink, its teen‑oriented brand. [30]
Beauty has also become a bright spot. MarketWatch recently highlighted that beauty products remain one of the few categories where consumers are still spending freely, and noted that Victoria’s Secret’s beauty division contributed meaningfully to the Q3 beat and to the decision to lift full‑year guidance, alongside strong results at sector peer Ulta Beauty. [31]
What Wall Street expects from VSCO stock
Despite the strong quarter, Wall Street’s overall view on VSCO is cautious rather than euphoric.
MarketBeat data shows that 14 analysts covering Victoria’s Secret currently assign the stock a “Hold” consensus rating, split between 6 “Buy,” 6 “Hold” and 2 “Sell” recommendations. [32]
On valuation, MarketBeat’s average 12‑month price target stands at $39.09, implying about 20% downside from the latest ~$49 share price. The range of published targets is wide, from a low of $17 to a high of $60. [33]
Other forecast aggregators tell a similar story:
- Investing.com reports a “Neutral” consensus from 9 analysts, with an average target around $36.3 and a range of $17–50. [34]
- ValueInvesting.io and Fintel both cite an average 12‑month target near $31.8, based on roughly 15–16 analyst estimates, with an overall “Hold” rating and implied downside of roughly 25–30% from current levels. [35]
- Public.com shows 11 analysts with a consensus “Hold” and a 2025 price prediction around $31.36. [36]
- QuiverQuant, which aggregates analyst targets and alternative data, notes that 10 analysts have issued targets over the last six months with a median price target of $27 per share. [37]
At the same time, sentiment is clearly improving at some firms. StockAnalysis.com’s rating log shows a series of recent upgrades: JP Morgan moved VSCO from “Hold” to “Buy” and lifted its target from $34 to $60; UBS upgraded from “Hold” to “Strong Buy” with a target in the mid‑$40s; while Telsey Advisory Group and Goldman Sachs have raised their targets and, in Goldman’s case, shifted from “Strong Sell” to “Hold.” [38]
Taken together, the various forecasts suggest that while analysts are becoming more constructive on the fundamentals, the average price target across services still clusters in the low‑ to mid‑$30s—well below the current ~$49 share price. That implies that, for now, many models view VSCO as fully valued or ahead of fundamentals.
Earnings and revenue forecasts: modest growth, gradual margin rebuild
Ahead of the Q3 report, consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis projected that Victoria’s Secret would generate about $6.52 billion in revenue this fiscal year, rising to roughly $6.71 billion next year—low‑ to mid‑single‑digit growth. Analysts were modelling EPS of roughly $2.15 this year and $2.23 next year. [39]
The company’s own updated guidance is more optimistic: adjusted EPS of $2.40–2.65 on net sales of $6.45–$6.48 billion in 2025. If management delivers on those targets, sell‑side models will likely need to move higher. [40]
Looking further out, the same StockAnalysis data shows consensus expectations for gradual improvement: revenue edging into the high‑$6‑billion range by 2027–2028 and EPS growing in the mid‑single‑digit range annually, with 12 analysts contributing to those estimates. [41]
Valuation check: Has the VSCO rally gone too far?
Using the midpoint of Victoria’s Secret’s updated adjusted EPS guidance (roughly $2.53 per share), a share price around $49 implies a forward price‑to‑earnings ratio of about 19–20× based on management’s own targets.
Analyst Rich Smith at The Motley Fool approached the numbers more conservatively. Adjusting for the company’s expected $90 million tariff headwind—which he spreads across roughly 80 million shares—he estimates that Victoria’s Secret might earn around $1.28 per share in 2025 after tariffs. At current prices, that works out to a P/E closer to 38×, which he characterizes as expensive for a retailer growing revenue around 9% a year. [42]
On a sales basis, valuation looks more modest. With a recent share price near $49 and an estimated share count around 80 million, VSCO’s market capitalization sits near $4 billion. Against management’s sales outlook in the mid‑$6‑billion range, the stock trades at roughly 0.6× expected 2025 revenue—toward the lower end of many specialty retail names, particularly those still in turnaround mode. [43]
Ultimately, whether VSCO now looks cheap or expensive depends on investors’ conviction in the turnaround. If margins continue to expand, tariffs ease over time and international growth stays strong, today’s multiples could prove reasonable. If growth slows or the company is forced back into heavy discounting, the current valuation could leave little margin for error.
Key risks for Victoria’s Secret & Co. investors
1. Execution and brand risk
The company is threading a cultural needle. It is leaning back into a more overtly sensual brand image—highlighted by the return of its fashion show and “angels”—while trying to present a more inclusive, modern message. Missteps could alienate core customers or reignite reputational controversy at a time when consumer sentiment shifts quickly online. [44]
2. Tariffs and supply‑chain pressures
Even after trimming its estimate, Victoria’s Secret still expects about $90 million of net tariff impact this fiscal year, a sizable drag on earnings. Any escalation in trade tensions, new tariffs or supply‑chain disruptions could pressure margins again. [45]
3. Macro and competitive environment
Victoria’s Secret operates in discretionary categories—intimates, apparel and beauty—that are sensitive to consumer confidence and employment. MarketWatch’s broader retail coverage suggests that beauty remains resilient, but apparel demand can cool quickly if the economy weakens. At the same time, the company faces intense competition from mass retailers, digitally native brands and newer entrants positioned around comfort or body inclusivity. [46]
4. Governance and activism
Earlier this year, the board responded to a letter from investor BBRC pushing for governance and strategy changes, underlining ongoing shareholder pressure. While activism can catalyze positive change, it can also create uncertainty around management’s long‑term roadmap. [47]
5. Analyst scepticism
Even as several firms upgrade their ratings, the average analyst price target remains well below today’s share price across multiple data providers. That doesn’t prevent further gains if execution continues to surprise, but it does mean the stock no longer enjoys the valuation discount it had when sentiment was deeply negative. [48]
What to watch next
Investors following VSCO over the coming quarters will likely focus on a few key indicators:
- Comparable sales and traffic: Sustained high‑single‑digit comp growth with stable or rising margins would strengthen the bull case that the refreshed brand positioning is resonating.
- Gross margin and promotional intensity: Friday’s results showed what reduced discounting can do for profitability; the question is whether the company can maintain that discipline if demand softens. [49]
- International expansion: With international revenue up more than 30% in Q3, global growth is a critical pillar of the long‑term story. Investors will watch whether that momentum can continue without sacrificing margins. [50]
- Analyst estimate revisions: As analysts update their models for the new guidance, changes in earnings estimates and price targets will offer clues about how durable Wall Street believes the turnaround really is.
Bottom line
Victoria’s Secret & Co. just delivered one of its strongest quarters since becoming an independent public company. Q3 sales, margins and guidance all beat expectations, and the market rewarded the stock with a double‑digit percentage gain. The “Path to Potential” strategy—fewer markdowns, a sharpened brand message and a push into international and beauty—is, for now, translating into tangible financial progress. [51]
At the same time, the easy money in the stock may have already been made. VSCO now trades at roughly 19–20× the midpoint of management’s adjusted EPS guidance and well above the average analyst price target. The debate for investors has shifted from “Will the turnaround work?” to “How much of it is already in the share price?”
Anyone considering VSCO should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio diversification, and should conduct independent research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
References
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