Australian Stock Market Weekly Wrap: ASX 200 Edges Higher Amid ASX Outage, Strong GDP and Rate-Hike Jitters (1

Australia’s sharemarket has just finished a choppy first week of December with modest gains, shrugging off a major ASX outage, mixed sector moves and a fresh dose of macroeconomic data that has traders reassessing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) path for 2026.

From Monday’s glitch‑marred session to Friday’s AI‑powered rally in data‑centre and lithium names, the S&P/ASX 200 spent most of the week grinding sideways near record territory rather than breaking decisively higher.

Key takeaways for 1–6 December 2025

ASX 200 fractionally higher for the week: The index recovered from Monday’s 0.6% slide to finish around 8,634.6 on Friday, a small net rise and roughly 5% higher over the past year. ^[1]
Monday’s major ASX outage spooked investors: A breakdown in the exchange’s announcements platform forced trading halts in about 80 stocks and renewed scrutiny of ASX’s long‑running technology overhaul. ^[2]
Q3 GDP beat trend but stoked rate fears: September‑quarter GDP rose 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y, the fastest annual pace in two years, prompting economists to warn the next RBA move is more likely up than down. ^[3]
Inflation still too high for comfort: October CPI is running at 3.8% y/y with trimmed mean at 3.3%, keeping markets convinced rate cuts are off the table and 2026 hikes increasingly likely. ^[4]
Resources and “AI infrastructure” the big winners: Lithium, copper and gold miners rallied on commodity strength and bullish demand forecasts, while data‑centre operator NextDC jumped on a new partnership with OpenAI. ^[5]
Index reshuffle looms: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&P/ASX indices effective 22 December, including additions such as Aussie Broadband and NexGen Energy and removals including Inghams and IPH from the ASX 200. ^[6]

ASX 200: Modest weekly rise after a rough Monday

The S&P/ASX 200 began December on the back foot.

Monday 1 December:
- The benchmark fell 0.6% to about 8,565, with selling concentrated in high‑valuation sectors such as technology, health care, communication services and financials. ^[7]
- Energy, basic materials and utilities were the only sectors to show meaningful resilience, helped by firmer oil and commodity prices. ^[8]
Tuesday 2 December:
- The market stabilised, with the ASX 200 closing around 8,579.7, up 0.17% as investors cautiously bought back into energy and materials. ^[9]
- Tech shares, however, remained under pressure, leaving the index only part‑way through repairing Monday’s damage. ^[10]
Wednesday 3 December:
- On the day Q3 GDP data landed, the index added 0.18% to 8,595.2. Utilities and energy names led gains while the Australian dollar edged above 65 US cents and bond yields swung around on shifting rate expectations. ^[11]
Thursday 4 December:
- Markets digested the GDP print alongside hotter household‑spending data and rising bond yields. The ASX 200 finished up 0.3% at 8,618. ^[12]
- Analysts noted that, over the last year, the index is up roughly 5–6% but still about 5% below its October record high, underscoring how little margin for error is left in valuations. ^[13]
Friday 5 December:
- The final trading day of the week saw the ASX 200 rise another 0.2% to 8,634.6 on a mixed Wall Street lead, capping what AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver described as a pause after November’s strong rebound. ^[14]

Depending on whether you measure from last Friday’s close or Monday’s sell‑off low, the index put on somewhere between 0.2% and about 0.8% over the week – a tentative advance rather than a breakout rally. ^[15]

The glitch that rocked Monday: ASX outage back in the spotlight

The biggest micro‑story of the week was not a stock or a data point, but the exchange itself.

Shortly before the Monday open, the ASX announcements platform suffered a major outage, preventing companies from releasing price‑sensitive news. Around 80 stocks were placed into trading halts, and a backlog of disclosures persisted even after the system was partially restored later in the session. ^[16]

Key details:

The disruption was linked to a software deployment for a security upgrade, not a cyber‑attack, according to ASX. ^[17]
Core trading and settlement remained functional, but investor confidence took a hit, amplifying the market’s risk‑off tone and contributing to Monday’s broad sell‑off. ^[18]
The incident reignited concerns over ASX’s long‑running technology overhaul. Reuters highlighted that regulators are already probing the exchange after a string of system failures, including the high‑profile CHESS settlement outage in late 2024 and earlier enforcement action by ASIC. ^[19]

Market participants described the latest episode as “embarrassing” given how much work the ASX has promised to do to restore trust in its infrastructure. ^[20]

For investors, the operational risk story is two‑fold:

Short‑term execution risk – trading halts on incomplete information make it harder to price risk and can exacerbate volatility in affected names.
Long‑term valuation risk – a perception that Australia’s main exchange is unreliable could eventually impact market depth, listing decisions or the cost of capital.

While these are not reasons to panic, they are increasingly part of the background risk calculus for institutional and retail investors alike.

Macro backdrop: strong GDP, sticky inflation and 2026 rate‑hike fears

GDP: slower headline, stronger under the hood

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that September‑quarter GDP grew 0.4%, leaving annual growth at 2.1%, the fastest pace in two years and slightly above the RBA’s estimate of trend. ^[21]

Growth was driven mainly by private investment and household consumption, while inventories and net trade subtracted from the headline number. ^[22]
GDP per capita was flat for the quarter, highlighting ongoing pressure on living standards despite the aggregate expansion. ^[23]

KPMG’s chief economist characterised the economy as having shifted from “second to third gear” – improving, but still far from full throttle. ^[24]

Inflation and spending: not what doves wanted to see

The GDP release arrived on top of already‑unhelpful inflation news:

October CPI rose 3.8% over the year, up from 3.6% in September. The trimmed‑mean measure watched by the RBA ticked up to 3.3% y/y, keeping underlying inflation comfortably above the 2–3% target band. ^[25]
Monthly household‑spending data showed annual growth accelerating to 5.6% in October, the strongest pace since 2023, with discretionary spending up sharply. ^[26]

Bond markets reacted swiftly. On Thursday, Australian 10‑year yields climbed to around 4.69%, with 3‑year yields above 4.0%, and traders fully priced in an RBA rate hike by September 2026. ^[27]

RBA outlook: 3.60% now, 2026 hikes later?

The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60% following the early‑November meeting, and economists expect the Bank to hold again at its final 2025 decision on 9 December. ^[28]

However:

Financial markets have pivoted from pricing future cuts to being “certain” of rate hikes in 2026, according to recent analysis. ^[29]
Commentators at AMP and elsewhere argue that while the labour market is softening, persistent inflation and robust spending mean the RBA can’t credibly signal easing yet. ^[30]

For equity investors, that leaves the ASX in a familiar bind:

Good growth is bad news for rates, and
High valuations make the market more sensitive to any hint that rates will stay higher for longer.

This tension was visible mid‑week as the market initially rallied on the GDP beat, only to fade as traders focused on the implications for future policy.

Sector moves: resources, lithium and AI infrastructure out‑front

Resources and lithium: demand stories back in favour

Resources were one of the bright spots of the week:

Copper and diversified miners benefited from rising metal prices and optimism around global infrastructure and energy‑transition spending. Capstone Copper, for example, surged around 8% on Thursday. ^[31]
Lithium stocks rallied strongly as brokers upgraded medium‑term demand forecasts. IGO gained about 7%, Mineral Resources rose roughly 4–5% and Liontown climbed close to 5% over the week. ^[32]
Gold miners also edged higher as bullion pushed to a six‑week high, with Newmont’s local listing up nearly 3%. ^[33]

Big diversified miners were more mixed:

BHP added roughly 0.8%,
Rio Tinto slipped around 1.5% after its 2026 production guidance underwhelmed some analysts.

Overall, resources helped to prop up the index, offsetting weakness in more rate‑sensitive sectors.

Banks: firmer but under a policy cloud

The major banks managed modest gains:

Westpac, NAB and CBA all advanced between roughly 0.7% and 1.1% over the week, with ANZ little changed.
Regional lender Bendigo Bank even climbed around 2.5% despite news that police had made arrests in a money‑laundering investigation linked to one of its branches.

Higher bond yields and the prospect of future rate hikes are a double‑edged sword for the sector:

They can boost net interest margins,
But they also raise the risk of loan arrears among heavily indebted households, particularly the cohort of first‑home buyers who entered the market during 2025’s earlier rate cuts.

Tech and AI: enthusiasm with bubble warnings

Technology shares saw mixed fortunes:

NextDC was the standout, jumping intraday by more than 10% on Friday after announcing a “sovereign AI infrastructure” partnership with OpenAI to build a next‑generation AI campus and large‑scale GPU supercluster in Western Sydney. The stock ended the day about 3% higher as some early gains were pared.
Broader tech indices lagged the market on Monday’s risk‑off session and never fully recovered, as concerns about lofty valuations and a potential global AI bubble remained in focus.

Economists repeatedly flagged that AI‑linked stocks look stretched, even as they continue to benefit from strong capital expenditure cycles in data centres and cloud infrastructure.

Index reshuffle ahead: S&P/ASX 200 changes to watch

Late in the week, S&P Dow Jones Indices released its December 2025 quarterly rebalance for the S&P/ASX series, effective before the open on 22 December 2025.

According to summary data:

Inghams Group and IPH Limited are among the companies set to exit the S&P/ASX 200,
While names such as Aussie Broadband and NexGen Energy are slated for inclusion.
At the large‑cap end, Amcor (AMC) will be removed from the S&P/ASX 50, reflecting shifts in market capitalisation and liquidity rankings.

Rebalances matter because they typically:

Drive forced buying and selling by index funds and ETFs,
Can impact short‑term price action in affected stocks, and
Gradually reshape the sector mix of key indices, influencing how macro shocks feed through to the broader market.

With these changes landing just days before Christmas, liquidity and execution will be key watch‑points for traders.

What it means for investors heading into next week

Here’s how the first week of December sets up the Australian market for the days ahead:

Rates and macro dominate the narrative
- The RBA is almost certain to hold at 3.60% on 9 December, but the combination of stronger GDP, firm inflation and robust spending means any dovish shift in guidance is unlikely.
- Markets will also be watching the US Federal Reserve closely, with a December rate cut all but priced in – a move that could weaken the US dollar and support risk assets globally.
Equity valuations look full, not cheap
- The ASX 200 is only a few percentage points below its record high, yet earnings expectations are still catching up with higher financing costs and slower global growth.
- Strategists warn that concerns about “AI bubble” dynamics and stretched multiples leave the market vulnerable to any disappointment, particularly in tech and high‑growth names.
Resources remain a key swing factor
- If metal and energy prices stay supported, resource stocks could continue to offset rate‑sensitive weaknesselsewhere in the index.
- But any reversal in commodity prices – especially in copper, lithium or iron ore – would quickly translate into headline index pressure.
Operational risk at the ASX won’t disappear overnight
- This week’s outage has ensured that exchange reliability will remain on the radar for regulators, institutional investors and listed companies.
- While it’s unlikely to drive an immediate de‑rating of the overall market, repeated missteps could, over time, influence where capital chooses to list and trade.

Bottom line

The Australian stock market’s first week of December 2025 was more about digestion than direction.

Investors had to juggle:

A very public reminder that the ASX’s own plumbing still needs work,
Stronger‑than‑expected economic growth and spending,
Stubborn inflation that keeps 2026 rate‑hike risks alive, and
Ongoing questions about whether AI and growth‑stock valuations have run too far, too fast.

Yet despite all that, the S&P/ASX 200 finished slightly higher, helped by resilient resources, a bounce in lithium and gold, and renewed enthusiasm for data‑centre infrastructure via the NextDC–OpenAI partnership.

For now, the path of least resistance still looks sideways to gently higher, but with volatility never far away. The decisive catalysts from here are likely to be:

The RBA decision and guidance on 9 December,
The US Fed’s meeting shortly after, and
How markets digest the late‑December index rebalance into year‑end.

As always, this wrap is informational, not personal advice. Anyone making investment decisions should consider their own objectives and, if needed, speak with a licensed adviser.