Intel Stock (INTC) on December 6, 2025: Nvidia Stake, Apple Foundry Rumors and Wall Street Forecasts

Intel has gone from unfashionable legacy chipmaker to one of 2025’s wildest AI bets. After a huge rally fueled by Nvidia’s $5 billion equity stake, government backing and fresh Apple foundry rumors, the stock has swung violently in early December — leaving investors debating whether INTC is a turnaround opportunity or a crowded, overvalued trade.

As of Saturday, December 6, 2025, Intel stock trades around $41.41 per share, near the top of its 12‑month range between roughly $17.67 and $44.02. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the very latest news, forecasts and analysis around Intel Corporation stock.

1. Intel stock today: price action and fresh volatility

Sharp pullback after record highs

This week captured Intel’s new reality: big gains and big air pockets.

On Thursday, December 4, Intel fell about 7.5%, closing near $40.50, after dropping as much as 8.3% intraday, as traders took profits following a record high the previous day. ^[2]
The sell‑off came as reports confirmed Intel will keep its Networking and Communications (NEX) unit instead of selling or spinning it off, disappointing investors who were hoping for a sharper focus on core businesses. ^[3]

On Friday, December 5, the stock rebounded, climbing about 3.6% to $41.96, helped by upbeat commentary on AI demand, foundry progress and a new $208 million expansion in Malaysia aimed at boosting packaging and test capacity. ^[4]

Over the last year, some coverage estimates Intel shares have more than doubled (around +100%), making it one of the strongest recoveries among large U.S. chipmakers. ^[5]

Intel by the numbers (early December 2025)

Recent snapshots from analyst and market data services show: ^[6]

Share price: ~$41–42
Market cap: ≈ $198 billion
12‑month range: ~$17.67 – $44.02
Forward P/E: extremely high relative to 2025 earnings (because current EPS is still depressed)
Analyst consensus rating: overall “Hold/Reduce”, with a bias toward neutral to cautious views

MarketBeat notes a P/E ratio above 4,000 on trailing earnings, which is less about mania and more a reflection of how thin current profits still are after several loss‑making quarters. ^[7]

2. Big money behind Intel: U.S. government, Nvidia and SoftBank

A semi‑nationalized champion?

Intel’s balance sheet and strategic position were transformed this year by a series of extraordinary deals:

The U.S. government agreed to take roughly a 10% equity stake in Intel as part of an effort to create a domestic “national champion” for advanced chips. The stake, worth several billions of dollars, came alongside CHIPS‑style subsidies and was framed as a move to secure AI and defense‑critical semiconductor capacity on U.S. soil. ^[8]
SoftBank added about $2 billion of its own capital, further shoring up Intel’s funding. ^[9]

These steps have significantly improved Intel’s cash position and given management more runway to fund its aggressive manufacturing build‑out and restructuring program, according to CFO Dave Zinsner. ^[10]

Nvidia’s $5 billion stake: lifeline or Trojan horse?

The headline catalyst in 2025 was Nvidia’s decision to invest $5 billion in Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, making Nvidia one of Intel’s largest shareholders with roughly a 4% stake once new shares are issued. ^[11]

Key points of the Nvidia‑Intel pact:

Nvidia buys $5 billion of Intel stock, joining the U.S. government and SoftBank as major backers. ^[12]
Intel will design custom data‑center CPUs that Nvidia will package with its AI GPUs, linked by proprietary high‑speed interconnects – potentially letting Intel earn a slice of each high‑end Nvidia AI server sold. ^[13]
Intel will also develop x86 PC SoCs integrating Nvidia RTX GPU chiplets, aimed at the coming wave of AI‑enhanced PCs. ^[14]

The news initially sent Intel stock up more than 20% in a single session in September, helping push major U.S. indices to record highs. ^[15]

For bulls, this is a validation that Intel’s technology and manufacturing still matter in the AI era. For bears, it’s a sign that Intel needed outside sponsors to stay relevant — and that the capital comes with expectations and strategic constraints.

3. Apple foundry rumors and the 18A / 14A technology story

A possible Apple comeback in 2027

The most explosive “optional upside” narrative for Intel in early December is the possibility that Apple could return as a customer — not for x86 CPUs, but as a foundry client:

Supply‑chain analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo and multiple tech outlets report that Apple has taken Intel’s 18A/18AP design kit, signed an NDA and is evaluating Intel’s process for its lowest‑end M‑series chips. ^[16]
If Intel hits performance and yield milestones, volume production of low‑end M‑series Mac and iPad SoCs could begin around 2027, covering perhaps 15–20 million chips per year. ^[17]
Several reports go further, suggesting Intel could eventually fab non‑Pro iPhone SoCs on its future 14A node by 2028, extending the partnership beyond Macs. ^[18]

Nothing is signed yet; Apple’s internal work remains contingent on Intel delivering final 18A/18AP tools and stable yields by 2026. Tom’s Hardware notes that 2027 is the earliest realistic date for a mainstream Apple product to ship on Intel 18A. ^[19]

Panther Lake and AI PCs on 18A

On Intel’s own roadmap, the company recently unveiled Panther Lake, its next‑generation Core Ultra Series 3 client CPU family and the first product built on 18A, which Intel calls the most advanced logic process ever developed in the U.S. ^[20]

Panther Lake is positioned as a flagship “AI PC” platform, and Intel has repeatedly talked about shipping tens of millions of AI‑capable PCs in the next few years as it tries to reclaim PC leadership from AMD and ARM‑based competitors.

14A: the node “everything hinges on”

At the same time, industry analyst Patrick Moorhead has publicly described Intel’s upcoming 14A node as “the real deal,” arguing that:

18A is already in production and set to underpin Panther Lake,
14A builds directly on that work and could solidify Intel’s return to process leadership if it wins big external customers. ^[21]

PC Gamer reports that Intel’s CEO Lip‑Bu Tan has warned that if Intel can’t secure a significant external customer and meet key milestones for 14A, the company may pause or even cancel 14A and some manufacturing expansion projects. ^[22]

In other words: the foundry and process roadmap is high‑stakes, binary and customer‑driven.

4. Q3 2025 earnings: solid beat, cautious guide

Intel’s Q3 2025 results, reported on October 23, marked a clear operational improvement:

Revenue: $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year and above the top of guidance. ^[23]
GAAP net income: $4.1 billion vs a $16.6 billion loss a year earlier. ^[24]
Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.23 vs a loss of $0.46 the prior year. ^[25]
Non‑GAAP gross margin: ~40%, significantly above prior‑year levels and ahead of consensus estimates around the mid‑30s. ^[26]

The earnings beat drove Intel stock up more than 7% the following day. ^[27]

However, the Q4 2025 outlook cooled some enthusiasm:

Q4 revenue guidance:$12.8–13.8 billion, slightly below the market’s prior expectations. ^[28]
Non‑GAAP EPS guidance: about $0.08, also a touch under consensus. ^[29]

Analysts now expect full‑year 2025 EPS around –$0.11, a big improvement from last year’s –$0.46, but still negative on a GAAP‑adjusted basis. ^[30]

The message from many professional commentators: execution is finally improving, but the turnaround is still fragile.

5. Foundry reality check: huge ambition, tiny external revenue

Intel’s strategy hinges on transforming itself into a world‑class foundry that can compete with TSMC and Samsung. The reality in 2025:

Intel’s combined foundry operations generated roughly $4.2 billion of revenue and a $2.3 billion operating loss in Q3 2025, an improvement from a $5.8 billion loss a year earlier. ^[31]
Industry analysis suggests that external foundry revenue (non‑Intel customers) is only around $120 million for 2025, roughly 1,000× smaller than TSMC’s foundry sales, underscoring how early Intel still is in this business. ^[32]

At the same time, reports highlight growing interest from major tech companies – Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom and potentially Apple – in Intel’s future 18A and 14A nodes, particularly for U.S.‑based, subsidy‑backed production. ^[33]

Government policy is now intertwined with Intel’s foundry trajectory. Some analyses note that under a White House agreement, Intel is effectively contractually bound to maintain foundry capacity for at least five years, backed by subsidies and penalties to ensure domestic resilience. ^[34]

Bottom line: Intel Foundry has meaningful political and strategic support, but the economics remain deeply negative and highly dependent on landing — and keeping — anchor customers.

6. NEX decision and governance tensions

Keeping NEX in‑house

On December 3, Intel confirmed it will retain its Networking and Communications (NEX) unit after exploring a potential sale or spin‑off earlier in the year. ^[35]

Management argues that keeping NEX “in‑house” should enable tighter integration between silicon, software and systems across AI, data‑center and edge products. ^[36]
The market reaction was negative: Intel became the worst‑performing S&P 500 stock on Thursday, dropping nearly 8%, as investors had hoped for more aggressive pruning of non‑core assets. ^[37]

The NEX decision reinforces that Intel is still committed to a broad, integrated platform strategy, rather than slimming down to a pure‑play foundry or CPU designer.

Former directors vs. current strategy

Governance remains a subplot:

A group of former Intel board members has publicly called for a new CEO, a new board and a spin‑off of Intel’s manufacturing assets, arguing that the company should separate its design and foundry businesses more cleanly. ^[38]
Their critique follows political pressure as well: Reuters recently highlighted how President Trump labeled new CEO Lip‑Bu Tan “conflicted” over his perceived China ties before later backing the U.S. government’s equity deal with Intel. ^[39]

While these moves have not yet forced any structural change, they underscore how political and activist scrutiny now surrounds every strategic decision Intel makes.

7. How Wall Street values Intel now: consensus “Hold,” downside targets

Price targets cluster below today’s price

Multiple forecast aggregators paint a consistent picture: most analysts see limited upside and some downside from current levels.

Recent 12‑month target snapshots:

MarketBeat:
- Average target $34.84
- Range $20–52
- Implies about –16% downside from ~$41.41
- Overall consensus: “Reduce” / cautious Hold. ^[40]
TipRanks:
- Average target $36.07
- Range $20–52
- Around –11% downside from roughly $40.50
- Breakdown: 3 Buy, 25 Hold, 6 Sell. ^[41]
StockAnalysis:
- Average target $31.98, about –22.8% below the current price. ^[42]
Public.com:
- 24 analysts, consensus “Hold” and a target around $32.02. ^[43]

In other words, most Wall Street models assume Intel shares are ahead of fundamentals after the 2025 rally.

Recent rating moves: more skepticism than enthusiasm

Selected changes this autumn:

HSBC downgraded Intel from Hold to “Reduce”, even as it raised its price target from $21.25 to $24, citing an “overdone” re‑rating and roughly 34% downside risk from recent levels. ^[44]
Citi analyst Christopher Danely maintained a “Sell” rating with a $29 price target, expressing concern about foundry economics and competitive pressure. ^[45]
MarketBeat’s compilation of broker commentary shows only a small minority of Buy ratings, with many more Hold and Sell/Reduce calls, and a consensus target anchored in the mid‑30s. ^[46]

At the same time, there are more optimistic voices. Some trading‑oriented and technical analyses float targets near $47 on the assumption that AI enthusiasm, Nvidia partnership momentum and potential Apple deals can support another leg up. ^[47]

The split between cautious fundamental analysts and momentum‑focused traders is central to Intel’s current risk/reward profile.

8. Bull vs. bear case for Intel stock

The bull case: AI leverage and strategic positioning

Supporters of the stock argue that Intel is finally set up for a multi‑year comeback:

AI everywhere, with Nvidia as a partner not just a rival
The Nvidia deal puts Intel inside some of the world’s most valuable AI compute platforms — from data‑center servers to AI PCs — without needing to win a head‑to‑head GPU war first. ^[48]
Apple and other foundry wins as potential game‑changers
Even a limited Apple M‑series contract would provide a powerful external validation of Intel’s 18A/14A nodes and open doors to other “West‑friendly” chip customers eager to diversify away from TSMC. ^[49]
Operational improvement is visible in the numbers
Q3 2025 showed revenue growth, a swing back to profitability and gross margins back near 40%, after years of erosion. Intel has also slashed operating expenses and capex targets as part of an aggressive restructuring. ^[50]
Political and financial backing reduces existential risk
With the U.S. government, Nvidia and SoftBank all on the cap table, Intel arguably has one of the strongest “support networks” in the industry. That backing might help sustain heavy foundry losses until the ecosystem matures. ^[51]
Valuation vs. long‑term potential
Some value‑oriented commentators still see Intel as a high‑risk but potentially underappreciated asset: if foundry margins normalize and AI‑centric products ramp, today’s revenue multiple could look modest in hindsight. ^[52]

The bear case: execution, competition and stretched near‑term valuation

Skeptics counter with several points:

Foundry economics are still ugly
Intel’s foundry business remains deeply loss‑making, with limited external revenue and a scale gap vs. TSMC that one analyst recently described as “peanuts” by comparison. Break‑even may not arrive until 2027 or later, and even that assumes successful node ramps and customer wins. ^[53]
Competition in AI and CPUs remains fierce
Nvidia still dominates high‑end AI accelerators; AMD is strong in server and client CPUs; and TSMC continues to lead on manufacturing. Intel’s Gaudi and Xeon platforms must prove they can win share in a market already crowded with powerful incumbents. ^[54]
Valuation vs. current earnings looks stretched
One recent analysis noted that at around $40–41 per share, Intel trades at more than 100× estimated 2025 earnings and roughly 3× sales, a far cry from the bargain multiples seen at the start of the year. ^[55]
Governance and strategic risk are elevated
Government ownership, activist pressure from former directors, and the need to balance political goals with shareholder value all increase the risk of sub‑optimal decisions or sudden shifts in strategy. ^[56]
Analyst skepticism is broad‑based
With consensus targets below the current share price and a preponderance of Hold/Reduce/Sell ratings, many professionals see more downside than upside from here — especially if any of the marquee deals (Nvidia partnership, prospective Apple contract) stumble. ^[57]

9. Key catalysts to watch after December 6, 2025

For traders and long‑term investors alike, several upcoming milestones are likely to move Intel stock:

Q4 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance
- Confirmation that demand “outpacing supply” continues into 2026.
- Any change to foundry breakeven timelines or capex plans. ^[58]
Regulatory approval and closing of the Nvidia stake
- Timing and any conditions attached to the $5 billion investment. ^[59]
Formalization (or not) of an Apple foundry deal
- Official announcements, tape‑out timelines and volume commitments will matter far more than rumors. ^[60]
Updates on 18A and 14A ramp
- Early Panther Lake benchmarks.
- Any commentary from marquee customers about node quality and yields. ^[61]
Further portfolio decisions (like NEX)
- Additional divestitures or spin‑offs could re‑ignite the value‑unlock narrative — or signal stress, depending on context. ^[62]

10. What this means for investors

Intel is no longer a sleepy value stock. It’s a complex, politically sensitive turnaround play at the heart of U.S. industrial policy and the AI infrastructure boom.

Short‑term, the stock is highly news‑driven and volatile, as December’s 7–8% daily swings show. ^[63]
Medium‑term, the story hinges on execution: delivering 18A and 14A on time, converting today’s partnerships and rumors (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and others) into profitable, recurring foundry and product revenue. ^[64]
Long‑term, if Intel truly re‑establishes process leadership and builds a viable foundry, today’s valuation could prove justified or even attractive. If not, the stock could drift back toward the mid‑30s or lower, as many analyst models currently suggest. ^[65]

For anyone considering Intel stock, it’s crucial to align position size and time horizon with this high‑risk, high‑variance profile — and to monitor news on Nvidia, Apple, government policy and foundry execution very closely.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

References

Intel Stock (INTC) on December 6, 2025: Nvidia Stake, Apple Foundry Rumors and Wall Street Forecasts