Micron Technology (MU) Stock on December 6, 2025: Crucial Exit, AI Memory Supercycle and 2026

Dateline: December 6, 2025

Micron Technology stock has turned into one of 2025’s flagship AI trades. After a brief wobble this week on news that the company is abandoning its long‑running Crucial consumer brand, the shares have snapped back as Wall Street doubled down on the idea of an “AI memory supercycle.” TechStock²+1

Below is a comprehensive look at Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) as of December 6, 2025, pulling together the latest news, forecasts and analyst commentary that matter for investors watching the stock on Google News and Discover.

Micron stock snapshot: price, performance and valuation

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, Micron shares finished at $237.22, up about 4.7% on the day after bouncing from Thursday’s sell‑off. The previous close was $226.65, so the Crucial headline-driven dip has already been largely retraced. ^[1]

Key trading and valuation metrics:

Last close: $237.22
Day range (Dec 5): $226.69–$240.57
52‑week range: $61.54–$260.58
Market cap: about $267 billion
Trailing P/E: ~31x
Dividend yield: ~0.19% ^[2]

Different data providers peg Micron’s year‑to‑date gain in a band of roughly 170–180%, reflecting an enormous rerating as investors price in AI‑driven demand for DRAM and high‑bandwidth memory (HBM). A recent Zacks note highlighted a 178% YTD surge, arguing that strong financial performance, AI momentum and still‑reasonable valuation multiples are keeping the bull case alive. ^[3]

Despite the rally, several quant and screening tools still describe Micron as trading at a moderate valuation versus its growth outlook: forward P/E estimates in the low‑ to mid‑teens and profitability metrics (operating and net margins) that now sit well above the sector median. TechStock²+1

The headline shock: Micron exits Crucial to chase AI demand

The biggest new story around Micron this week is its decision to shut down the Crucial consumer business, the brand under which it has sold PC and gaming memory and SSDs for nearly three decades.

On December 3, 2025, the company announced it will stop selling Crucial‑branded consumer products through global retailers, e‑tailers and distributors, while continuing to ship through the consumer channel until the end of fiscal Q2 2026 (February 2026). Warranty support and service for existing Crucial products will remain in place, and Micron‑branded enterprise products will still be sold to commercial channel customers worldwide. ^[4]

Chief business officer Sumit Sadana framed the decision as a direct response to AI‑driven demand:

(Paraphrased) AI growth in data centers is putting intense pressure on memory and storage supply, so exiting Crucial allows Micron to redirect capacity toward larger, faster‑growing strategic customers in AI and enterprise markets. ^[5]

Market reaction

The announcement initially spooked investors. On December 4, Micron fell about 3.2% to roughly $226.65, marking a third straight down day. ^[6]
Coverage from Reuters and Barron’s stressed that Crucial is a small contributor to Micron’s overall revenue and profit base and that the move is fundamentally about reallocating scarce high‑end fab capacity toward HBM and data‑center DRAM. ^[7]

By Friday, sentiment had clearly shifted. A wave of analyst commentary framed the Crucial exit as bullish for margins and mix, and the stock rallied back above $237.

DRAM, HBM and a global shortage: why the exit matters

Micron’s Crucial decision doesn’t happen in a vacuum—it’s directly tied to an emerging global shortage in advanced memory:

Reuters reports that Micron’s HBM revenue reached nearly $2 billion in the August quarter, underscoring how quickly this product line has scaled. ^[8]
S&P Global Ratings estimates that HBM accounted for roughly 15% of Micron’s total fiscal 2025 revenue, while premium products (including HBM and high‑end DRAM) made up about 35%. ^[9]
The data‑center segment now represents around 56% of Micron’s revenue, up from about one‑third in previous cycles—a sign of how deeply AI has reshaped the business mix. ^[10]

At the same time, memory pricing is inflecting sharply higher:

TrendForce data cited by Barron’s and TipRanks suggests conventional DRAM contract prices are set to jump 18–23% in Q4 2025, partly because HBM production is eating into wafer capacity for standard memory products. ^[11]

Seen through this lens, Crucial is a low‑priority outlet for increasingly scarce bits. Shuttering the consumer channel frees up capacity that can be sold into tighter, higher‑margin AI and enterprise markets, which is exactly what Micron wants to maximise during an AI‑driven upcycle.

Financial momentum: record FY 2025 and bullish Q1 FY 2026 guidance

Micron heads into this strategic pivot with unusually strong fundamentals.

Record fiscal 2025

For the fiscal year ended August 28, 2025, Micron reported:

Revenue: about $37.4 billion, nearly 50% higher than fiscal 2024. ^[12]
Fiscal Q4 2025 revenue:$11.32 billion, up 46% year‑on‑year and 22% sequentially. ^[13]
Non‑GAAP gross margin in Q4: around 45.7%, versus mid‑30s a year earlier, with management targeting just above 50% for the following quarter. ^[14]
EPS: various providers show trailing EPS around $7.5–7.6, moving from near‑break‑even just two years ago. ^[15]

S&P’s review notes that AI demand has elevated Micron’s EBITDA and cash flow, and that the company’s balance sheet is robust: adjusted net leverage sits at roughly 0.2x, well below S&P’s 1x upgrade trigger. ^[16]

Q1 FY 2026 guidance: margins cracking 50%

Guidance for the current quarter (Micron’s Q1 FY 2026, covering the quarter ended November 2025) has been a major driver of analyst upgrades:

Revenue guidance: about $12.5 billion ± $0.3 billion
Non‑GAAP EPS guidance: roughly $3.75 ± $0.15
Non‑GAAP gross margin guidance:~50.5–52.5%, a level the company hasn’t seen in years. ^[17]

Micron is scheduled to report these Q1 results and host its earnings call on December 17, 2025, which is widely viewed as the next major catalyst for the stock. ^[18]

AI memory supercycle and the $9.6 billion Japan bet

Much of the current Micron narrative revolves around the idea that we’re in a multi‑year AI memory supercycle, rather than a short‑lived upswing.

HBM and data‑center mix

According to S&P’s analysis:

Data‑center products now make up about 56% of Micron’s revenue, versus roughly one‑third in prior peaks.
HBM is about 15% of total sales, and “premium” products (HBM plus high‑end DRAM) contribute roughly 35% of revenue. ^[19]

This shift has two important implications:

Pricing power – AI workloads require enormous memory bandwidth, making HBM and advanced DRAM less discretionary and more “mission‑critical” for hyperscale customers.
Longer cycle – AI infrastructure build‑outs (cloud, training clusters, inference data centers) tend to be multi‑year projects, aligning well with the lengthy lead times for new fabs.

$9.6 billion Hiroshima HBM plant

To lock in its position, Micron is undertaking a huge capital project in Japan:

The company plans to invest 1.5 trillion yen (about $9.6 billion) to build a new HBM‑focused memory plant in Hiroshima, according to Nikkei and Reuters reports. ^[20]
Construction is expected to begin in May 2026, with shipments around 2028.
Japan’s government may provide up to 500 billion yen in subsidies as part of a broader push to revive its domestic semiconductor industry and attract foreign investment. ^[21]
Industry analysis suggests Micron currently holds roughly 21% of the global HBM market, compared with about 64% for SK Hynix, leaving meaningful room to grow share if the Hiroshima fab ramps successfully. ^[22]

The long timelines here actually support the bull case: new HBM capacity will take years to come online, which could keep supply constrained and margins elevated well into the late 2020s if AI demand continues to scale. ^[23]

S&P turns positive: credit outlook and capex ramp

On November 26, 2025, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Micron’s credit from “stable” to “positive”, while affirming a BBB‑ rating:

S&P specifically cited AI‑driven growth in HBM and data‑center demand, noting that Micron’s scale and profitability have improved significantly.
The agency highlighted fiscal Q4 revenue of $11.3 billion, 46% year‑over‑year growth, and management’s plan to push gross margins above 50% in the coming quarter. ^[24]
S&P estimates net leverage at just 0.2x and notes that Micron plans to ramp net capex to over $18 billion in fiscal 2026, up from roughly $13.8 billion in 2025, with most of that going into DRAM and HBM capacity. ^[25]

S&P also flagged HBM4 timelines as a topic of market rumor and said management has pushed back against suggestions of design missteps, reiterating that the roadmap is still on track for shipments beginning in Micron’s fiscal Q2 2026. ^[26]

What Wall Street is saying: ratings, earnings forecasts and price targets

Consensus ratings: broadly bullish

Across major data providers:

MarketBeat tracks about 35 analysts and assigns Micron a “Buy” consensus rating, with an average 12‑month price target around $221–222, implying mid‑single‑digit downside from current levels. ^[27]
TipRanks shows 29 analysts rating MU a “Strong Buy”, with an average target of about $233.32 (essentially flat versus the recent $234 area), and a range from $170 to $338. ^[28]
StockAnalysis.com aggregates around 30 Wall Street forecasts and also lands on a “Buy” consensus, but with a slightly lower average target near $206, implying more noticeable downside from today’s price. ^[29]

In other words, rating language is bullish, but average price targets are now close to—or even below—the current quote, reflecting how far the shares have already run.

Earnings and revenue forecasts

StockAnalysis’ aggregated forecasts highlight just how aggressively Wall Street expects Micron’s earnings power to ramp: ^[30]

Revenue
- FY 2025 (actual): $37.38B
- FY 2026 (forecast): $56.3B
- FY 2027 (forecast): $65.45B
EPS (often on a non‑GAAP basis)
- FY 2025: ~$7.59
- FY 2026: ~$17.57
- FY 2027: ~$20.67

That implies EPS growth of roughly 130% in 2026 and about 18% in 2027, with forward P/E multiples dropping into the low‑teens if those numbers are met. ^[31]

Zacks’ coverage similarly emphasizes that its consensus earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 imply triple‑digit growth followed by solid double digits, and assigns Micron both a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) near 1.3, between “Strong Buy” and “Buy.” ^[32]

Big price‑target moves

Several high‑profile brokers have raised their price targets in recent weeks:

Mizuho: Maintains an “Outperform” rating and recently increased its target from $265 to $270, citing higher DRAM pricing, rising margins and strong AI demand. The bank models $56B in revenue and $17.89 EPS in 2026, rising to about $66.1B and $21.69 EPS in 2027. ^[33]
Morgan Stanley: Reiterated an “Overweight” view and boosted its target to a street‑high $338, framing Micron as a central winner from the AI memory supercycle. ^[34]
Wolfe Research: Lifted its target to $300, explicitly tying the call to Micron’s HBM positioning and the structural tightness in high‑end memory supply. ^[35]
UBS and Rosenblatt: Have pushed targets into the $275–$300 zone while keeping bullish ratings. ^[36]
Goldman Sachs: Remains more cautious, maintaining a “Neutral” rating even as it raised its target into the low‑$200s (around $205), pointing to strong fundamentals but a valuation that already prices in a lot of good news. ^[37]

Alternative takes: Trefis and quant models

Trefis offers a slightly different lens:

A December 5 article titled “Micron Technology Stock To $295?” argues that Micron scores “Very Strong” on growth and profitability and has a strong balance sheet, with debt around $15B versus a market cap near $245B, implying a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 6–7% and a cash‑to‑assets ratio above 12%. ^[38]
At the same time, Trefis describes Micron’s downturn resilience as “very weak”, highlighting that the stock historically suffers outsized drawdowns relative to the S&P 500 in recessions. ^[39]

Various short‑term quant services (such as CoinCodex, as summarized in recent coverage) see modest near‑term upside from current levels, but those models are statistical rather than fundamental and are generally treated as short‑horizon trading signals rather than long‑term valuation anchors. TechStock²

Upcoming catalysts: December 17 earnings and policy support

From here, several events could move Micron stock over the next few weeks and quarters:

Q1 FY 2026 earnings (Dec 17, 2025)
- Investors will focus on whether Micron can meet or beat its $12.5B revenue and mid‑$3 EPS guidance, and whether gross‑margin guidance stays above 50%.
- Commentary on HBM capacity, ASPs and qualification with key AI customers (including GPU vendors and hyperscalers) will be scrutinized. ^[40]
Capital‑spending and fab updates
- Micron’s Boise, Idaho, and Clay, New York projects, which are supported by U.S. CHIPS Act incentives, will be watched for schedule and budget updates, as they underpin capacity plans later in the decade. ^[41]
- Further details on the Hiroshima HBM fab in Japan (funding milestones, exact product mix, and timing) could reinforce or challenge the supercycle narrative. ^[42]
Pricing data for DRAM and NAND
- TrendForce and other researchers have already flagged sharp Q4 price increases; any sign that contract prices are rising faster—or slower—than expected will flow quickly into Micron models. ^[43]
Policy and geopolitics
- Export controls on advanced chips, ongoing U.S.–China tech tensions and subsidy decisions in the U.S., Japan and Europe all have the potential to reshape competitive positioning and returns on Micron’s megaprojects. ^[44]

Key risks: cycles, capex and AI concentration

Even the most optimistic research notes this week emphasize that Micron is not a risk‑free AI trade. Recurring themes include: TechStock²+2Trefis+2

Cyclical risk
- Memory has always been cyclical. If AI capex pauses or if the industry overbuilds HBM capacity, pricing could correct sharply, dragging down margins and earnings.
Customer concentration and AI dependency
- A growing share of Micron’s revenue now depends on a relatively small set of hyperscalers, GPU vendors and cloud platforms. A delay in major AI product cycles or a shift in vendor preferences could hit demand.
Execution and capex burden
- Multi‑billion‑dollar fabs in the U.S. and Japan are complex. Cost overruns, yield issues or delays could erode returns on Micron’s planned $18B+ fiscal‑2026 capex budget. ^[45]
Regulatory and geopolitical risk
- Memory chips and AI hardware are increasingly in the crosshairs of export controls and industrial policy. Changes in U.S. or allied rules could affect where Micron can ship its highest‑end products.
Valuation and expectations
- After a ~170–180% move this year, expectations are very high. As several commentators note, that can amplify volatility around even small disappointments—whether on margins, pricing, or the pace of AI deployments. ^[46]

Bottom line: how Micron stock looks on December 6, 2025

Putting it all together, Micron Technology stock today sits at the intersection of:

Exceptional recent execution, with record FY 2025 revenue, rapidly expanding margins and a strong balance sheet. ^[47]
A strategic pivot away from lower‑margin consumer products (Crucial) toward AI‑centric HBM and data‑center DRAM, reinforced by a $9.6B HBM fab project in Japan. ^[48]
Analyst enthusiasm that is real—but increasingly reflected in the price, with average 12‑month targets clustered around the current share level even as high‑end targets reach into the $300–$338 range. ^[49]

For investors who believe the AI build‑out will stay capacity‑constrained for several years, Micron remains a core way to express that view in public markets. For more conservative investors, the mix of cyclical risk, heavy capex and elevated expectations might argue for waiting on better entry points or using position‑sizing and diversification to manage volatility.

As always, this article is for information and news purposes only, not personal investment advice. Any decision to buy, hold or sell Micron stock should take into account your own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and ideally be discussed with a qualified financial adviser.