Nasdaq Today, December 6, 2025: Tech-Led Rally Caps Strong Week as 2026 Rate-Cut and AI Bets Drive Forecasts

New York – December 6, 2025.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq is ending the week on a quietly bullish note. On Friday, December 5, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,578.13, up 72.99 points (+0.31%), while the Nasdaq-100 finished at 25,692.05, up 0.43%. ^[1] For the week, the Composite gained about 0.9% and is now up roughly 22.1% year-to-date, giving growth and technology investors plenty to cheer as 2025 winds down. ^[2]

Below is a structured look at the latest Nasdaq news, forecasts, and analysis as of December 6, 2025, suitable for Google News and Discover readers.

Key Takeaways for Nasdaq Investors

Indexes on the rise:
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,578.13 (+0.31% on Friday, +0.91% this week, +22.1% YTD). ^[3]
- Nasdaq-100: 25,692.05 (+0.43% on Friday), remaining near the record territory it reached earlier in 2025. ^[4]
Macro tailwind: A long-delayed inflation report showed core PCE at ~2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month for September, keeping inflation on a gentle downtrend and bolstering expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. ^[5]
Sentiment stabilising: U.S. consumer sentiment improved to 53.3 in early December from 51.0 in November, easing inflation worries but still reflecting a cautious public mood. ^[6]
Tech still in the driver’s seat: AI, cloud, and semiconductor names continue to lead Nasdaq gains, with mega-cap tech and AI-linked stocks attracting strong ETF inflows despite ongoing bubble concerns. ^[7]
Mixed 2026 outlook:
- Some strategists see moderate, fundamentals-driven gains from the Nasdaq-100 next year. ^[8]
- Others warn of potential downside of around 10–15% from current levels based on quantitative models. ^[9]
- A few high-profile voices highlight a non-trivial risk of an AI-fuelled stock-market bubble by 2026. ^[10]
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) stock: The exchange operator’s own shares closed Friday at $90.22, essentially flat on the day, after reporting Q3 2025 net revenue of about $1.3 billion, up 11% year-on-year. ^[11]

1. Nasdaq Today: How the Indexes Closed

Daily, Weekly and Year-to-Date Performance

The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday’s U.S. trading session at 23,578.13, advancing 0.31% and outpacing the Dow Jones and S&P 500, which rose about 0.22% and 0.19%, respectively. ^[12]

Over the full week:

Nasdaq Composite: +0.9%
S&P 500: +0.3%
Dow Jones: +0.5%
Russell 2000: +0.8%

Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is leading major U.S. indexes with a gain of roughly 22.1%, underscoring how central growth and technology names remain to the 2025 bull market. ^[13]

The Nasdaq-100, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, closed around 25,692.05, up 0.43% on Friday. ^[14] After setting multiple record highs in mid‑2025, the index remains close to those peaks, supported by AI infrastructure, cloud platforms, and chipmakers. ^[15]

Sector and Stock Highlights

Friday’s move was broad-based but tech-tilted:

Software & AI: Names like Palantir and other AI software plays outperformed many chip stocks, as markets rotated into software platforms that monetise AI rather than just hardware. ^[16]
Consumer & retail: Ulta Beauty surged more than 13% after raising its outlook, helping lift consumer discretionary sentiment and supporting broader indexes that include Nasdaq-listed retail names. ^[17]
Media & streaming: Netflix traded lower amid a blockbuster $80+ billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery assets, a transaction that dominated Friday’s corporate headlines and will reshape the streaming landscape for several Nasdaq- and NYSE‑listed media stocks. ^[18]

Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, dipped on the day, highlighting that mega-cap tech and AI bellwethers are still doing much of the heavy lifting for Nasdaq‑linked benchmarks. ^[19]

2. Macro Drivers: Inflation, Fed Cuts and Consumer Sentiment

Cooling but Sticky Inflation

Friday’s rally across Nasdaq and the broader U.S. market was driven largely by inflation data investors had been waiting on for weeks:

The core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) for September 2025 showed prices rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below recent readings and broadly in line with forecasts. ^[20]

This combination of gradually cooling inflation and still-positive growth has strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts beginning in 2026, according to multiple market commentators and strategists. ^[21]

Consumer Sentiment: Better, But Still Gloomy

At the same time, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 53.3 in early December from 51.0 in November, beating expectations but remaining well below levels seen at the start of the year. ^[22]

For Nasdaq investors, that mix matters:

Improving inflation expectations (1‑year expectations easing to about 4.1%) reduce the risk of further aggressive tightening. ^[23]
Still‑weak confidence and high tariffs keep a lid on runaway demand and corporate pricing power, which can weigh on cyclical and smaller-cap growth stocks that often populate the broader Nasdaq universe. ^[24]

In short, the macro backdrop currently looks “Goldilocks‑ish” for big Nasdaq names: not hot enough to force the Fed to tighten again, not cold enough to threaten earnings in 2025–26. ^[25]

3. What’s New Around Nasdaq: Crypto, Listings and Micro‑Cap Risk

Nasdaq’s Big Bitcoin Options Gambit

Beyond index levels, Nasdaq the exchange is making waves in derivatives:

A recent filing seeks to quadruple the options position and exercise limits on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from 250,000 to 1,000,000 contracts, effectively putting it in the same liquidity league as major equity index ETFs. ^[26]
Nasdaq argues that Bitcoin markets are now deep enough for higher limits without destabilising price discovery, while the SEC has opened a comment window to weigh market-growth benefits against manipulation risks. ^[27]

For Nasdaq‑linked investors, this move underlines how the exchange is leaning into crypto as a mainstream asset class, potentially boosting derivatives volumes and trading‑related revenue if the proposal is approved.

Crackdown on Tiny, Volatile IPOs

Another major story on December 6 is regulatory scrutiny of some of the smallest companies listed on Nasdaq:

Over the past 18 months, more than 230 micro‑cap IPOs under $15 million have listed on Nasdaq, most of them from China, Hong Kong and Singapore — far outnumbering similar deals on the NYSE. ^[28]
Many of these stocks saw extreme post‑IPO volatility and sharp crashes, prompting the SEC and FINRA to investigate potential pump‑and‑dump schemes and trading manipulation. ^[29]
Nasdaq has already proposed tighter listing standards, including higher minimum offering sizes (e.g., $25 million for companies primarily operating in China), in an effort to curb abuses while preserving access to capital. ^[30]

This is important context for Nasdaq investors: while these micro‑cap names are tiny in index‑weight terms, headline risk and regulatory changes can still influence Nasdaq’s brand, revenue mix, and perceived market integrity.

4. 2026 Forecasts: Where Could the Nasdaq Go Next?

No one knows exactly where Nasdaq will trade in 2026, but fresh research and analysis released in recent days offers a useful map of plausible scenarios.

4.1 Fundamental Strategists: “Moderately Bullish, More Cautious”

A widely discussed Seeking Alpha note, “My Outlook for the Market in 2026: An Optimistic But Cautious Stance,” argues that: ^[31]

U.S. equities — particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100 — remain “structural long-term plays”.
After strong gains in 2025, they expect mid‑single‑digit percentage returns in 2026, driven by roughly 10% earnings growth, partly offset by a mild valuation (P/E) compression.
The Nasdaq‑100, packed with cash‑rich, high‑margin tech names, is seen as a core building block for long‑term portfolios, but not immune to bouts of volatility or multiple shrinkage if rates fall more slowly than expected.

In short, this camp sees positive but more “normal” returns for Nasdaq in 2026, rather than another blistering rally.

4.2 Morgan Stanley: “Underappreciated Bull Market” and AI Capex

Morgan Stanley’s 2026 U.S. Outlook describes a “growth‑positive 2026” and argues that investors may be underestimating the durability of the current bull market, supported by: ^[32]

Steady (if unspectacular) U.S. GDP growth alongside global growth around 3%.
A powerful AI‑driven capital‑expenditure cycle, benefitting cloud providers, chipmakers and software platforms — all heavyweights inside Nasdaq‑linked indexes.
The prospect of Fed rate cuts over the next 12–18 months, easing financial conditions without triggering a hard landing.

While not giving an explicit Nasdaq target, this view implies that large‑cap tech and AI ecosystems could continue to outperform, especially if earnings broaden beyond the current “AI leaders”.

4.3 Bubble Watch: Evercore’s 2026 Scenario

Not everyone is relaxed. Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel has floated a 25% probability that the S&P 500 could surge toward 9,000 by 2026, driven by a classic bubble dynamic tied to AI and ultra‑easy financial conditions. ^[33]

His base case is more modest (around 7,750 on the S&P 500 by late 2026), but the upside scenario underscores a key risk for Nasdaq investors:

If AI euphoria accelerates further, Nasdaq could rally far beyond current valuation norms — but that would likely set the stage for a violent correction later in the decade.

4.4 Quant Models: Possible 10–15% Downside

On the other side of the spectrum, a machine‑learning‑based forecast from Meyka sees the Nasdaq‑100 at roughly 22,400 in 2026, about 12–13% below current levels. ^[34]

That model is based primarily on technical and statistical patterns rather than macro narratives, and it serves as a reminder that:

Mean reversion after several years of strong tech outperformance is a real possibility.
Even in a benign macro environment, valuation compression alone could drag index returns lower.

4.5 Technical View: Short-Term Pullback, Long-Term Uptrend

From a chartist’s angle, analysts at VT Markets note that the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq‑100, appears to be nearing the end of a short-term bullish cycle, with momentum indicators stretched. They suggest that a pullback could “entice buyers” rather than signal a trend reversal. ^[35]

In practical terms:

Short term (weeks): A 3–7% dip in Nasdaq‑100 would be unsurprising after the recent run.
Medium term (2026): As long as earnings estimates hold and the Fed begins cutting rates, pullbacks are more likely to be viewed as buying opportunities than exits.

5. Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ): How the Exchange’s Own Stock Looks

While most headlines focus on the indexes, Nasdaq, Inc. — the company behind the exchange and several major benchmarks — is itself a Nasdaq-listed stock (ticker: NDAQ).

Recent Performance

According to recent price history:

NDAQ closed on December 5, 2025 at $90.22, down a negligible 0.08% on the day but up from around $88 at the start of the week, reflecting moderate strength as markets recovered from autumn volatility. ^[36]

Earnings and Business Mix

On October 21, Nasdaq reported Q3 2025 net revenue of about $1.3 billion, an increase of roughly 11% versus a year earlier, as data, index, and anti‑financial‑crime technology businesses continued to grow. ^[37]

Combined with recent moves to:

Tighten listing standards and clamp down on suspicious micro‑cap activity, ^[38]
Expand into Bitcoin ETF options and other derivatives, ^[39]

Nasdaq, Inc. is clearly positioning itself as a diversified market‑infrastructure and data company, not just a stock exchange — a thesis many long‑term NDAQ shareholders favour.

6. What This Means for Investors Watching Nasdaq

Important: The following is general market commentary and not personal investment advice.

Given the latest data and forecasts, a few practical themes emerge for investors focused on Nasdaq‑linked assets (indexes, ETFs like QQQ, or tech-heavy portfolios):

Expect more “two‑way” volatility.
With the Nasdaq up more than 22% year-to-date and near prior highs, pullbacks of 5–10% would be normal, not exceptional, especially if economic data or Fed communications surprise markets. ^[40]
Earnings breadth is key in 2026.
Many strategists emphasise that broader EPS growth beyond the AI megacaps will be crucial for sustaining the bull run without creating a bubble. ^[41]
Watch the policy mix — tariffs and rates.
High tariffs and lingering inflation uncertainty still hang over consumer sentiment and some trade‑sensitive Nasdaq components, even as markets price in future rate cuts. ^[42]
Quality and balance sheets matter.
Across many 2026 outlooks, there’s a common thread: companies with strong balance sheets, recurring revenue and pricing power — traits common among top Nasdaq‑100 constituents — are better positioned if growth slows or volatility spikes. ^[43]

For most long‑term investors, the core decision is not “all‑in or all‑out” of Nasdaq, but how much of their equity allocation they want tilted toward growth and technology versus more defensive or value‑oriented sectors.

7. Quick FAQ: Nasdaq on December 6, 2025

Q1: Is the Nasdaq in a bubble right now?
Not clearly. Valuations are elevated versus long-term averages, and some analysts warn of a potential AI‑driven bubble by 2026, but sentiment and leverage are not yet at classic mania levels. ^[44]

Q2: Are analysts generally bullish or bearish on Nasdaq for 2026?
Forecasts are mixed but skew modestly positive: many strategists expect moderate, fundamentals‑driven gains, while models like Meyka’s see low‑double‑digit downside, and a minority warn of a possible bubble scenario. ^[45]

Q3: How did Nasdaq perform this week and this year so far?
This week (ending Friday, December 5), the Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.9%, and it is up roughly 22.1% year-to-date, leading other major U.S. equity benchmarks.