Published: December 6, 2025
Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) has become one of 2025’s most talked‑about AI infrastructure stocks. The share price has exploded as the company signed multi‑billion‑dollar AI data‑center leases and lined up massive project financing — but it’s also burning cash and loading up on debt to get there.
Here’s a detailed look at the latest Applied Digital stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 6, 2025, and what it could mean for investors watching APLD.
APLD Stock Snapshot: Price, Performance and Volatility
Applied Digital closed on December 5, 2025 at $31.22 per share, with after‑hours trading around $30.85. The stock’s 52‑week range runs from $3.31 to $40.20, meaning shares have traded at roughly 12x their one‑year low. [1]
Key current stats:
- Share price (Dec 5 close): $31.22
- Market cap: about $8.9 billion [2]
- 52‑week range: $3.31 – $40.20
- Beta: ~7.1 (extremely high volatility) [3]
- Trailing‑12‑month revenue: ~$173.6 million
- Trailing‑12‑month net loss: about –$247.9 million [4]
According to MarketBeat, APLD started 2025 near $7.64, meaning the stock is up roughly 300% year‑to‑date. [5] That kind of move puts APLD firmly in “momentum rocket” territory — and also raises the stakes if sentiment turns.
The Core Story: $16 Billion in Long‑Term AI Data Center Leases
The reason APLD is on so many watchlists is simple: long‑dated AI infrastructure contracts.
Polaris Forge 1: 400 MW fully leased to CoreWeave
In Ellendale, North Dakota, Applied Digital’s Polaris Forge 1 “AI Factory” campus is designed for 400 MW of critical IT load. All of that capacity is now fully leased to CoreWeave, a fast‑growing “neocloud” AI infrastructure provider, under ~15‑year agreements. [6]
Management estimates that the CoreWeave leases at Polaris Forge 1 represent about $11 billion in anticipated lease revenue over their term. [7]
Polaris Forge 2: New $5 Billion AI factory lease
On October 22, 2025, APLD announced a $5 billion AI factory lease with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler at its Polaris Forge 2 campus near Harwood, North Dakota. [8]
Key details:
- Capacity: 200 MW of critical IT load in the initial lease
- Term: roughly 15 years
- Use: purpose‑built to support the hyperscaler’s AI and high‑performance compute workloads
- Expansion option: the tenant holds a first right of refusal on another 800 MW, covering the campus’s full 1 GW expansion potential. [9]
With Polaris Forge 1 and 2 combined, APLD now has 600 MW of capacity leased to two of the world’s largest hyperscalers and roughly $16 billion in contracted lease revenue over 15 years. [10]
This contracted backlog is central to the bull case: it provides multi‑year visibility into potential cash flows if the projects are delivered on time and on budget.
Latest Company News (Late November – Early December 2025)
1. First 100 MW building fully energized at Polaris Forge 1
On October 27, Applied Digital announced “Ready for Service” (RFS) for the first 50 MW phase of its initial 100 MW building at Polaris Forge 1, serving CoreWeave. [11]
On November 24, the company followed up with Phase II RFS, bringing the entire 100 MW building online. [12]
An independent report from DataCenterDynamics on December 1 confirmed that this 100 MW building — built in two 50 MW phases — is now operational, and reiterated that the broader Polaris Forge 1 campus is slated for 400 MW and fully committed to CoreWeave under long‑term contracts. [13]
Why it matters:
- RFS milestones mark the shift from construction to revenue‑generating lease payments, not just one‑time installation revenue.
- They also demonstrate execution speed, which is a major theme in both company messaging and third‑party analysis.
2. $25 Million strategic investment in Corintis (chip‑level liquid cooling)
On December 2, APLD announced it had led a $25 million funding round for Corintis, a Swiss startup specialising in advanced direct‑to‑chip liquid cooling. [14]
The company highlights Corintis’s micro‑fluidic technology as a way to:
- Push higher power densities for AI GPUs
- Cut cooling energy and water usage significantly versus legacy methods
- Integrate tightly with Applied Digital’s own waterless, closed‑loop cooling designs
A same‑day summary from Kavout and subsequent Seeking Alpha commentary frame this as a strategic move to secure differentiated cooling tech in a world where AI data centers are bumping up against power, heat and sustainability constraints. [15]
3. Massive project financing: Macquarie partnership and high‑yield notes
Applied Digital is financing its AI “factory” buildout with a mix of preferred equity and project‑level debt:
- A $5.0 billion perpetual preferred equity facility with Macquarie Asset Management
- Senior secured notes tied to specific Ellendale data‑center assets
On October 9, alongside fiscal Q1 results, APLD disclosed it had drawn $112.5 million from the Macquarie preferred facility for Polaris Forge 1, plus $50 million in equipment financing for Polaris Forge 2. [16]
On November 12, the company said it expects to receive another $787.5 million in equity funding from Macquarie by the end of November, also to accelerate the North Dakota buildout. [17]
Then, in mid‑November:
- November 10: APLD announced a proposed $2.35 billion senior secured notes offering due 2030 to fund the Ellendale ELN‑02 and ELN‑03 data centers, repay a prior credit facility and fund a debt‑service reserve. [18]
- November 13: The company priced the notes at 9.25%, issued at 97% of face value, with the same use of proceeds. [19]
These financings are huge relative to APLD’s size and are central to both the bull case (scale, non‑dilutive project capital) and bear case (heavy leverage at high interest rates).
Earnings and Fundamentals: Rapid Growth, Ongoing Losses
Fiscal Q1 2026 results (quarter ended August 31, 2025)
In its fiscal Q1 2026 release, Applied Digital reported: [20]
- Revenue: $64.2 million, up 84% year‑over‑year
- Net loss attributable to common shareholders:–$27.8 million (vs. prior‑year net income)
- Adjusted net loss: $7.6 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: approximately $0.5 million
Segment detail:
- Data Center Hosting (legacy crypto/HPC hosting):
- Q1 revenue of $37.9 million, up 9% YoY, with its Jamestown (106 MW) and Ellendale ELN‑01 (180 MW) facilities fully utilized. [21]
- HPC Hosting / AI factory fit‑out:
- Around $26.3 million of revenue from tenant fit‑out services for Polaris Forge 1, which the company emphasises are one‑time and lower‑margin but signal progress on its AI build. [22]
From StockAnalysis, trailing‑12‑month numbers add more context:
- Revenue (TTM): ~$173.6 million
- Net income (TTM): approximately –$247.9 million [23]
Applied Digital had around $114.1 million in cash and equivalents and $687.3 million in debt as of August 31, 2025 — not counting hundreds of millions more raised via the Macquarie facility and senior notes after quarter‑end. [24]
Management has laid out an ambitious target:
- About $500 million annualised NOI once Polaris Forge 1 is fully operational
- A path toward $1 billion in NOI within five years if Polaris Forge 2 is fully leased and built out, potentially enabling a transition to an AI‑focused data‑center REIT over time. [25]
Those figures, however, are forward‑looking ambitions rather than current performance.
How Wall Street Sees APLD: Ratings and Price Targets
Analysts are broadly bullish on APLD — but their price targets vary sharply, reflecting uncertainty about execution and valuation.
Consensus ratings
- StockAnalysis: 11 analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus. [26]
- Public.com: analysts skew heavily positive, with 70% “Strong Buy” and 30% “Buy”, no “Sell” ratings. [27]
- TradingView: 12 analysts over the last three months; overall rating “Strong Buy.” [28]
Price targets
Different platforms show different averages, in part because they’re drawing from overlapping but not identical analyst sets and dates:
- StockAnalysis / MarketBeat‑style data: average 12‑month target $29.36, implying ~6% downside versus the $31.22 close. [29]
- TradingView: 10‑analyst 1‑year price target of $42.90, with a range of $37 to $56 — roughly 37% upside from current levels. [30]
- TipRanks: reports an average target around $42–43, with high estimates near $56 and low near $35, and frames this as ~45% upside from recent prices. [31]
- Public.com: lists an average target of about $31, essentially in line with today’s price. [32]
In other words, some analyst sets still see APLD as undervalued; others think it’s fully priced or slightly overvalued after the 2025 rally.
Fundamental forecasts
- Next quarter (consensus):
- Longer‑term projections:
- Simply Wall St’s narrative points to potential 2028 revenue of about $755.7 million and earnings of $102.2 million, implying extremely fast compounding (roughly 74% revenue growth per year) from current levels. [35]
Simply Wall St also highlights a wide range of fair‑value estimates, with community valuations stretching from roughly $3.68 to $43.70 per share, underscoring how polarising the stock is. [36]
Short‑term technical models are more cautious: Intellectia’s AI‑driven forecast as of early December expects APLD to drift about 1–2% lower over the next month, calling for a modest near‑term pullback after the recent surge. [37]
What Recent Research Is Saying About Applied Digital
Trefis: “A $9 billion bet on the AI buildout”
A December 5 Trefis note describes Applied Digital as a $9 billion market‑cap pure‑play on AI data centers, emphasising that its facilities are designed from the ground up for GPU‑heavy workloads, with liquid cooling, medium‑voltage power architectures and partnerships with OEMs like ABB to boost efficiency. [38]
Trefis highlights:
- Polaris Forge 2 as a $3 billion campus, ~280 MW, expected online around 2027
- A multi‑gigawatt development pipeline and long‑term leases with hyperscalers
- Consensus revenue growth of roughly 38% in 2026 and 85% in 2027, off a low base
But it also flags capital intensity, competition and valuation as key risks: billions of dollars are being spent ahead of cash inflows, and competitors like Equinix and other AI‑focused operators are racing for similar deals. [39]
Zacks: Strong AI thesis, Hold‑rated due to valuation and execution risk
In several recent pieces, Zacks frames APLD as a purpose‑built AI infrastructure provider:
- Its closed‑loop, direct‑to‑chip liquid cooling and PUE around 1.18 with near‑zero water usage are presented as clear technical differentiators. [40]
- The 4 GW+ active pipeline and the shift from crypto‑driven hosting to long‑term AI leases are highlighted as structural upgrades to the business. [41]
At the same time, Zacks notes that:
- APLD trades at a forward price‑to‑sales multiple around 16x, versus less than 9x for the broader sector, and carries a “Value Score” of F. [42]
- The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting worries about leverage, capital intensity and the need to flawlessly execute a very aggressive buildout. [43]
Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool: Liquid cooling and “sleeping giant” narratives
Recent Seeking Alpha articles argue that Applied Digital is “showing all the right signs” with its liquid‑cooling investments, pointing to the Corintis funding round and the now fully energised first 100 MW building as evidence that APLD is methodically building differentiated infrastructure rather than generic capacity. [44]
Multiple Motley Fool pieces over the last two weeks frame APLD as:
- A “sleeping data‑center giant” tied to $16 billion in AI leases
- A stock that could still have significant upside despite being up more than 300% in 2025, if those leases convert into high‑margin, recurring cash flow over the next several years. [45]
Simply Wall St: Huge upside, big dilution and execution risks
Simply Wall St’s analysis is notably balanced:
- It highlights the extraordinary long‑term return potential if management hits its growth and margin targets.
- But recent updates flag “shareholder dilution” as a major new risk, with several insiders — including the chairman and independent directors — exercising options and selling millions of dollars’ worth of stock in 2025. [46]
- Its models have also pushed back breakeven forecasts to 2027–2028, reflecting rising costs and heavy capex before lease income fully ramps. [47]
24/7 Wall St.: Tenant profitable, landlord burning cash
A widely shared 24/7 Wall St. piece (syndicated via Yahoo Finance) contrasts CoreWeave’s move into profitability with Applied Digital’s continuing cash burn as it builds data centers, underscoring a key dynamic: APLD is effectively the landlord, taking on the capital burden so its hyperscale tenants can rent AI‑ready power capacity rather than own everything themselves. [48]
That framing neatly captures the central question for investors: will APLD’s long‑term contracted revenue ultimately more than compensate for the near‑term losses and leverage it’s taking on today?
Bull Case: Why Optimists Like Applied Digital Stock
Supporters of APLD generally point to five main themes:
- Exploding AI infrastructure demand
AI workloads are pushing traditional data centers to their limits. Analysts expect global AI‑related capex by hyperscalers to reach hundreds of billions of dollars in 2025–2026, with much of that requiring GPU‑optimized, liquid‑cooled facilities — the niche Applied Digital is targeting. [49] - Locked‑in, multi‑year revenue
With about 600 MW contracted across Polaris Forge 1 and 2 and around $16 billion in total lease value, APLD’s future top line is more visible than that of most small‑cap tech names, assuming it delivers on construction. [50] - Technical edge via liquid cooling and climate advantage
The company’s design targets PUE of 1.18 with near‑zero water consumption by combining closed‑loop liquid cooling with the naturally cool North Dakota climate — potentially giving tenants lower total cost of ownership for AI training clusters. [51] - Non‑recourse project financing (in theory)
Much of the new capital is being raised at the project level (e.g., APLD Compute senior notes, Macquarie preferred equity), which, if structured as advertised, could limit corporate‑level recourse while allowing APLD to recycle equity into new developments. [52] - Small cap in a huge market
Trefis and others note that an $8–9 billion market‑cap company with multi‑gigawatt ambitions is tiny relative to the size of the AI data‑center opportunity, leaving room for significant upside if execution and financing cooperate. [53]
Bear Case: Why Skeptics Remain Cautious
Skeptics focus on a different set of issues:
- Heavy leverage and expensive debt
- APLD is pricing $2.35 billion of notes at 9.25%, on top of prior bank debt and billions in preferred equity commitments. [54]
- Interest costs will be substantial, and any construction delays or cost overruns could squeeze cash flow.
- Ongoing losses and cash burn
- Valuation risk after a 300%+ rally With the stock up roughly 3x year‑to‑date and trading at a high teens forward price‑to‑sales multiple, even bullish forecasts leave less room for error. Zacks calls out APLD’s valuation as stretched versus the broader sector. [57]
- Customer concentration A very large portion of APLD’s revenue and pipeline is tied to a small number of tenants, chiefly CoreWeave and one unnamed hyperscaler. Any renegotiation, delay or operational issue with these customers could have outsized impact. [58]
- Execution and regulatory risks Building multi‑gigawatt campuses involves:
- Coordinating grid interconnections
- Managing local community and environmental concerns
- Navigating evolving AI, energy and data‑center regulation
- Potential dilution Simply Wall St has flagged shareholder dilution as a key risk, noting insider stock sales and a history of equity issuance as the company funds its expansion. [60]
Given these factors, some analysts label APLD a high‑beta, high‑risk AI infrastructure trade rather than a core long‑term holding for conservative investors.
Key Catalysts to Watch Next
If you’re tracking Applied Digital stock into 2026, these upcoming events and milestones are likely to matter most:
- Next earnings report – January 13, 2026
- Consensus expects Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue in the mid‑$70M–$80M range and a narrower loss than last year. [61]
- Investors will watch how quickly lease revenue ramps as the first 100 MW at Polaris Forge 1 moves from fit‑out to steady‑state rent.
- Progress at Polaris Forge 1 and 2
- Additional RFS milestones at the Ellendale campus (400 MW total)
- Construction updates from Polaris Forge 2, where 200 MW is leased but not yet online
- Financing developments
- Confirmation of Macquarie draws and use of proceeds
- Final closing and deployment of the 9.25% senior notes
- Any new equity raises or changes in the capital structure
- Customer and contract news
- Possible expansion of capacity with existing hyperscalers
- Any new anchor tenant announcements or pipeline conversions from APLD’s reported multi‑GW backlog [62]
- Macro and sector sentiment APLD trades with a very high beta, meaning AI sector rotations, GPU‑supply headlines, interest‑rate moves and investor risk appetite can move the stock as much as company‑specific news.
Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction Bet on AI Data Center Infrastructure
Applied Digital has rapidly reinvented itself from a crypto‑hosting operator into an AI data‑center specialist with long‑term hyperscale leases, a differentiated cooling story and a multi‑billion‑dollar project pipeline. [63]
At the same time, it is:
- Highly leveraged
- Still unprofitable on a GAAP basis
- Priced at rich multiples after a 300%+ rally in 2025
Analyst research and media coverage reflect this duality. Some see significant upside if APLD executes, fills out its gigawatt‑scale campuses and matures into a cash‑rich infrastructure platform; others emphasise valuation, leverage and execution risk, treating the stock more as a speculative AI‑infrastructure trade than a defensive holding. [64]
If you’re considering Applied Digital stock, it’s important to:
- Match any position size to your risk tolerance and time horizon
- Focus on cash‑flow trajectory, leverage and project milestones, not just headline contract values
- Remember that no single article or forecast is a guarantee — outcomes depend heavily on execution and market conditions
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. ir.applieddigital.com, 7. ir.applieddigital.com, 8. ir.applieddigital.com, 9. ir.applieddigital.com, 10. ir.applieddigital.com, 11. ir.applieddigital.com, 12. ir.applieddigital.com, 13. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 14. ir.applieddigital.com, 15. www.kavout.com, 16. ir.applieddigital.com, 17. ir.applieddigital.com, 18. ir.applieddigital.com, 19. ir.applieddigital.com, 20. ir.applieddigital.com, 21. ir.applieddigital.com, 22. ir.applieddigital.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. ir.applieddigital.com, 25. ir.applieddigital.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. public.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. public.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. simplywall.st, 36. simplywall.st, 37. intellectia.ai, 38. www.trefis.com, 39. www.trefis.com, 40. www.nasdaq.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. www.nasdaq.com, 43. finviz.com, 44. www.kavout.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. simplywall.st, 47. simplywall.st, 48. finance.yahoo.com, 49. www.trefis.com, 50. ir.applieddigital.com, 51. www.nasdaq.com, 52. ir.applieddigital.com, 53. www.trefis.com, 54. ir.applieddigital.com, 55. ir.applieddigital.com, 56. finance.yahoo.com, 57. www.marketbeat.com, 58. ir.applieddigital.com, 59. ir.applieddigital.com, 60. simplywall.st, 61. www.nasdaq.com, 62. www.nasdaq.com, 63. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 64. www.trefis.com
