Cisco Systems stock snapshot (December 6, 2025)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trading at $77.97 as of the latest session, putting the stock just below its all‑time closing high of $78.39 set on November 19, 2025. [1]
According to Macrotrends data, the 52‑week high sits at $80.06, only a few percent above today’s price, underscoring how close CSCO is to its historical peak. [2]
On a year‑to‑date basis, Cisco shares are up about 31.7% in 2025 (through the close on December 5), a strong rebound after several more muted years. [3]
Cisco continues to deliver a mix of income and growth:
- Dividend: A quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share has been declared for payment on January 21, 2026. At the current share price, this equates to a dividend yield of ~2.1%. [4]
- Capital returns: The company returned $3.6 billion to shareholders in its most recent quarter, via dividends and share buybacks. [5]
Against this backdrop, Cisco’s AI‑driven networking momentum and its integration of Splunk are central to the latest bull case for CSCO stock.
Earnings momentum: Q1 FY 2026 beats and raised guidance
Cisco’s fiscal 2026 is off to a strong start.
Q1 FY 2026 highlights
For the quarter ended October 25, 2025 (Q1 FY 2026), Cisco reported: [6]
- Revenue: $14.9 billion, up 8% year over year
- GAAP EPS: $0.72, up 6% YoY
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.00, up 10% YoY, above the high end of guidance
- Product revenue: up 10%
- Services revenue: up 2%
- Product orders: up 13% YoY, with double‑digit growth in Networking orders for the fifth consecutive quarter
- AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers: about $1.3 billion in Q1 alone [7]
Operationally, Cisco continues to run with high profitability, posting:
- GAAP gross margin: 65.5%
- Non‑GAAP gross margin: 68.1%
- Non‑GAAP operating margin: 34.4% [8]
From a cash and balance‑sheet perspective, Cisco reported: [9]
- Operating cash flow: $3.2 billion for the quarter
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO): $42.9 billion, up 7%
- Deferred revenue: $28.0 billion, up 2%
The company also continues to aggressively reduce share count and support the stock price:
- Share repurchases in Q1: ~29 million shares for $2.0 billion at an average price of $68.28
- Total capital returned in Q1: $3.6 billion (dividends + buybacks)
- Remaining buyback authorization:$12.2 billion with no termination date [10]
Full‑year FY 2026 guidance raised
Cisco raised its full‑year FY 2026 outlook, driven largely by the AI‑driven data center build‑out and a major campus networking refresh cycle: [11]
- Revenue guidance:
- New: $60.2 – $61.0 billion
- Prior: $59.0 – $60.0 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS guidance:
- New: $4.08 – $4.14
- Prior: $4.00 – $4.06
- Q2 FY 2026 guidance: Revenue of $15.0 – $15.2 billion, non‑GAAP EPS of $1.01 – $1.03 [12]
Reuters notes that Cisco expects about $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, after securing more than $2 billion in AI orders for fiscal 2025 and building a pipeline exceeding $2 billion for high‑performance networking products across sovereign, neo‑cloud and enterprise customers. [13]
This combination of double‑digit AI order growth, expanding margins and raised guidance is the backbone of the latest bullish narrative around CSCO.
Strategic growth engines: AI networking, Splunk and edge platforms
Splunk acquisition: building a software and data powerhouse
Cisco closed its approximately $28 billion acquisition of Splunk on March 18, 2024, paying $157 per share in cash. [14]
Key strategic points from Cisco’s own description of the deal:
- The combined company aims to deliver real‑time, unified visibility across an organization’s entire digital footprint, blending networking, security and observability data.
- Cisco becomes one of the largest software companies globally, not just a hardware vendor.
- The company expects the deal to be cash‑flow positive (ex‑certain items) and non‑GAAP gross‑margin accretive in FY 2025, and non‑GAAP EPS accretive in FY 2026. [15]
The Splunk integration strengthens Cisco’s push into recurring software, security operations centers, and full‑stack observability — all higher‑margin, subscription‑heavy businesses that support more resilient revenue and potentially higher valuation multiples.
AI infrastructure and “Unified Edge”
Cisco is positioning itself squarely as an AI infrastructure enabler. On its earnings call and in coverage from Reuters, the company highlighted: [16]
- $1.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscale customers in Q1 FY 2026.
- A target of $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY 2026.
- More than $2 billion in AI‑related orders in FY 2025 and a pipeline above $2 billion for high‑performance networking products.
Cisco also launched “Cisco Unified Edge”, a new platform designed to run AI workloads closer to where data is generated — such as retail stores, factory floors and healthcare facilities — enabling lower latency and improved privacy compared with sending everything to centralized clouds. [17]
Put simply, Cisco wants to capture AI investment not only in hyperscale data centers, but also across campuses, branch offices and edge locations.
Networking refresh & marquee wins
Cisco’s Q1 FY 2026 results reflect a multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar campus networking refresh, with: [18]
- Networking revenue up 15% year over year
- All campus categories (switching, routing, wireless, IoT) showing accelerated orders
- Next‑generation products ramping faster than previous cycles
Recent announcements support this narrative:
- A multi‑year partnership with Madison Square Garden Entertainment naming Cisco an official partner and supplier of advanced network infrastructure for the iconic New York venue, including Catalyst switches, Nexus 9000 data center switches and security via Cisco Identity Services Engine. [19]
These deals validate Cisco’s ability to win large, high‑profile deployments that can later expand into software, security and observability upsell.
Thought leadership in AI and digital well‑being
On December 4, 2025, Cisco released joint research with the OECD showing stark geographical and generational divides in AI adoption and digital well‑being. [20]
Key findings:
- Emerging economies such as India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa are leading in generative AI adoption, particularly among younger adults.
- Under‑35s are far more likely to use and trust AI, while older adults remain less engaged and more uncertain.
- High recreational screen time is associated with lower well‑being, especially among youth in emerging markets.
While this research doesn’t directly move earnings in the short term, it reinforces Cisco’s branding around responsible AI, digital inclusion and skills development, themes that can support long‑term customer relationships and public‑sector wins.
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street sentiment for CSCO stock
Consensus rating: Moderate Buy, mild upside
According to MarketBeat’s compilation of 26 Wall Street analysts over the last 12 months: [21]
- Consensus rating:Moderate Buy
- 17 Buy ratings
- 9 Hold ratings
- 0 Sell ratings
- Average 12‑month price target:$84.14
- Target range:
- High: $100.00
- Low: $63.00
- This implies roughly 7.9% upside from the current price around $77.97.
A separate analysis from Fintel, reported via Nasdaq, puts the average one‑year price target at $85.79, up 10.29% from the prior estimate, with targets ranging from $63.12 to $105.00 per share and implying nearly 10% upside from a recent close around $78. [22]
Recent upgrades and high‑profile targets
Following the Q1 FY 2026 beat and guidance raise, multiple banks and brokers lifted their targets: [23]
- UBS: Upgraded CSCO from Hold to Buy, raising its target to $88 per share — at one point the highest on the Street.
- Bank of America: Increased target to $95 (from $85).
- Rosenblatt & Melius: Lifted targets to $100 per share.
- KeyBanc: Raised target from $77 to $87, citing strength in networking demand. [24]
- Morgan Stanley: Moved its target to $82 (from $77).
A broader survey by Benzinga still shows a somewhat more conservative picture, with a consensus target of $70.09 based on 25 analysts, a high of $87 and a low of $50; however, this data includes older ratings and predates some of the most recent upgrades. [25]
Overall, the Street view is that:
- Cisco is not a hyper‑growth AI stock, but
- The AI infrastructure cycle, Splunk synergies and robust capital returns justify a premium to its own historical multiples and modest further upside from current levels.
Fundamentals and valuation snapshot
Earnings trends
Based on FullRatio data: [26]
- 2025 EPS (fiscal year completed July 2025): $2.56, up slightly from $2.55 in 2024.
- Trailing twelve‑month EPS (TTM): about $2.60.
- Q1 FY 2026 EPS: $0.72 GAAP, with year‑over‑year growth of ~6%.
Longer‑term EPS growth has been modest:
- EPS growth last 12 months (quarterly YoY): ~5.9%
- 3‑year average EPS growth: around ‑3.3%
- 5‑year average EPS growth: around ‑0.7% [27]
In other words, Cisco is transitioning from a low‑growth legacy networking giant into a moderate‑growth hybrid of hardware and software — with AI and Splunk acting as potential accelerators.
Valuation multiples
The recent “bull case” analysis citing Yahoo Finance data pegged Cisco at roughly: [28]
- Trailing P/E: about 29x
- Forward P/E: around 18–19x
Those figures line up with:
- TTM EPS around $2.6 and price near $78 → trailing P/E just below 30x. [29]
- FY 2026 non‑GAAP EPS guidance mid‑point around $4.11 → forward P/E in the high teens. [30]
For a mature Dow component with a ~2% dividend yield and mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit earnings growth, that valuation is not cheap, but it is not extreme relative to AI‑exposed infrastructure and security peers.
Institutional ownership and buyback support
Institutional investors remain heavily involved in CSCO:
- A recent MarketBeat report notes that Nkcfo LLC increased its Cisco position by 36.4%, owning 165,050 shares, and making CSCO its 6th largest holding at about 4.8% of its portfolio. [31]
- Fintel data, summarized by Nasdaq, shows 4,943 funds or institutions reporting positions in Cisco, with an average portfolio weight of 0.63% and a put/call ratio of 0.70, which is often interpreted as a bullish options signal. [32]
On the corporate side, Trefis estimates that Cisco repurchased about $5.995 billion of its own stock in fiscal 2025, following $5.787 billion in 2024 and $4.293 billion in 2023, with approximately $14.2 billion remaining under its repurchase program as of July 26, 2025. [33]
Combined with a sizeable dividend and a strong balance sheet, this buyback activity provides a meaningful support bid under the stock, particularly during market pullbacks.
Key risks to the Cisco bull case
Despite the upbeat narrative and AI tailwinds, investors should stay aware of several risks:
- AI spending cyclicality
- The current guidance assumes sustained heavy AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprises. A slowdown or shift in AI architectures could soften demand for high‑end networking gear and edge platforms. [34]
- Integration and execution risk with Splunk
- Management expects the Splunk deal to be EPS accretive on a non‑GAAP basis in FY 2026, but large software integrations are complex. Cultural integration, product roadmap alignment and cross‑selling execution will be critical. [35]
- Mixed performance in Security and Collaboration
- While Networking revenue is growing healthily, Cisco’s Q1 FY 2026 results showed Security revenue down 2% and Collaboration revenue down 3% year over year, hinting at competitive and product‑cycle pressures in certain segments. [36]
- Valuation risk near all‑time highs
- With CSCO trading near record levels and well above its long‑term historical averages, negative surprises in AI orders, macro conditions or regulatory developments could lead to multiple compression.
- Macro and rate environment
- Large networking and data center projects are capital‑intensive. A sharp deterioration in macro conditions or a reversal in interest‑rate expectations could delay customer deployments.
What to watch next
Investors tracking Cisco Systems stock in the coming weeks and months may focus on:
- Cisco’s 2025 Virtual Annual Meeting of Stockholders on December 16, 2025, where management may provide additional color on strategy, capital allocation and Splunk synergies. [37]
- Updates on AI orders and pipeline in subsequent quarters — especially whether AI infrastructure revenue continues on track toward the ~$3 billion FY 2026 target. [38]
- Product announcements and customer wins around Cisco Unified Edge, full‑stack observability and security, which will determine how effectively Cisco monetizes the Splunk deal and its AI positioning.
- Dividend and buyback trends, including whether the Board increases the dividend from the current $0.41 per share per quarter as earnings grow. [39]
Bottom line: Cisco Systems (CSCO) as of December 6, 2025
As of early December 2025, Cisco Systems stock sits near all‑time highs, supported by:
- Strong Q1 FY 2026 results and raised full‑year guidance
- A clear AI infrastructure narrative, spanning hyperscale data centers, campus networks and edge deployments
- The strategic and financial potential of the Splunk acquisition
- Consistent dividends and large‑scale buybacks
- Broad institutional ownership and a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with mid‑to‑high single‑digit percentage upside over the next 12 months
At the same time, the valuation already reflects a good portion of these positives, and investors must weigh integration risks, mixed performance in some software segments, and the possibility that AI infrastructure spending normalizes.
For long‑term investors comfortable with blue‑chip tech and AI‑adjacent infrastructure, CSCO currently offers a blend of income, resilience and measured growth. However, as always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. You should consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance and time horizon, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
References
1. www.macrotrends.net, 2. www.macrotrends.net, 3. www.slickcharts.com, 4. investor.cisco.com, 5. investor.cisco.com, 6. investor.cisco.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. investor.cisco.com, 10. investor.cisco.com, 11. investor.cisco.com, 12. investor.cisco.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investor.cisco.com, 15. investor.cisco.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investor.cisco.com, 19. www.itpro.com, 20. investor.cisco.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.benzinga.com, 26. fullratio.com, 27. fullratio.com, 28. finviz.com, 29. fullratio.com, 30. investor.cisco.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.trefis.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. investor.cisco.com, 36. investor.cisco.com, 37. investor.cisco.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. investor.cisco.com
