MercadoLibre Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) is back in focus as of December 6, 2025, with a mix of powerful growth numbers, fresh funding, and heavy institutional interest – all against a backdrop of short‑term share price volatility and margin pressure.
As of Friday’s session, MercadoLibre shares were trading around $2,066, roughly 3–4% lower on the day, giving the company a market value of about $105 billion and putting it near the lower half of its 52‑week range between roughly $1,646 and $2,645. [1]
Below is a breakdown of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis on MercadoLibre stock up to December 6, 2025.
1. Where MercadoLibre Stock Stands Today
Recent performance has been choppy:
- As of the close on November 28, 2025, MELI was around $2,082, up about 22% year to date but down ~9% over the last month and roughly 16% over the last three months, leaving the stock only slightly higher than a year ago and well below its 52‑week high near $2,645. TechStock²
- On December 6, MarketBeat reports the stock opening at $2,066.42, down about 3.4%, with a P/E ratio of ~50, a PEG ratio of about 1.5, and beta around 1.4 – indicating a richly‑valued, growth‑oriented and volatile name. [2]
In other words, the business is executing strongly, but the stock has cooled from earlier highs as investors digest earnings, margins, and the broader macro backdrop.
2. Fresh Headlines Since Late November: Bonds, Big Buyers and Record Shopping
Amundi’s $399 Million Position Boosts Institutional Vote of Confidence
On December 6, Amundi, one of Europe’s largest asset managers, disclosed it had increased its stake in MercadoLibre by 40.6%, purchasing 46,586 additional shares. That brings its total holding to 161,339 shares, worth about $398.8 million and representing roughly 0.32% of the company. [3]
The same MarketBeat update notes that institutional investors collectively own over 87% of MercadoLibre’s stock, underlining that this is very much a “big money” name. [4]
$750 Million Bond Deal After Investment-Grade Upgrade
On December 4, MercadoLibre announced it had successfully issued USD 750 million of senior unsecured notes due 2033 with a 4.900% coupon. [5]
Key details from the Business Wire release:
- The offering is the first bond since MercadoLibre achieved investment‑grade status (BBB‑ from both S&P and Fitch). [6]
- The issue was 3.6x oversubscribed, with demand from more than 150 institutional investors, signaling strong credit market appetite. [7]
- Proceeds will go toward general corporate purposes, effectively bolstering liquidity and funding further expansion of its e‑commerce and fintech ecosystem. [8]
Simply Wall St notes that this new fixed‑rate bond adds “fresh fuel” to MercadoLibre’s growth story, giving more clarity on how the company intends to fund logistics, payments and credit expansion across Latin America. [9]
Record El Buen Fin Sales Highlight Operational Strength
In early December, TradingView’s StockStory reported that MELI shares jumped about 4.1% intraday after the company revealed record sales volumes during Mexico’s El Buen Fin shopping event. [10]
Highlights from that report:
- At peak, MercadoLibre processed more than 3,000 purchases per minute. [11]
- The company delivered around half of all orders in less than 24 hours, underscoring the maturity of its logistics network. [12]
- Mercado Pago, its payments arm, helped drive demand with expanded credit lines and interest‑free installment options. [13]
This shopping‑event performance directly supports the story investors hear each quarter: logistics and fintech are now powerful, reinforcing pillars of MELI’s growth engine.
“Up 7,400% All Time”: Long‑Term Bulls Still Loud
A December 3 article syndicated via Finviz points out that MercadoLibre has returned roughly 7,400% since its 2007 IPO, vastly outperforming the S&P 500, and argues that despite this staggering history, it may still not be too late for long‑term investors. [14]
That piece leans heavily on:
- 35% year‑over‑year GMV growth in Q3 on a currency‑neutral basis. [15]
- A fast‑growing fintech super‑app, where total payment volume rose 54% and monthly active users climbed 29% in the latest quarter. [16]
The tone from this camp: MELI is already a generational winner – and still has a long runway.
3. Q3 2025: Explosive Growth, Margin Trade‑Offs
MercadoLibre’s third‑quarter 2025 numbers, released on October 29, form the backbone of current analysis.
Revenue and Segment Performance
According to Zacks/Nasdaq and Mexico Business News:
- Net revenue & financial income: about $7.4 billion, up ~39–40% year over year (roughly 49% growth in FX‑neutral terms), marking the 27th consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth. [17]
- Commerce segment revenue: around $4.17 billion, up 33% YoY. [18]
- Fintech revenue (Mercado Pago): about $3.24 billion, up 49% YoY. [19]
Operational metrics are equally robust:
- Items sold: up 39.3% YoY to ~635 million units. [20]
- Unique buyers: up 26% YoY to about 76.8 million. [21]
- Fintech MAUs: ~72 million, up 29% YoY. [22]
- Assets under management: up 89% YoY to about $15.1 billion. [23]
- Credit portfolio: about $11 billion, up ~83% YoY, with management emphasizing stable delinquency rates. [24]
Regionally, Brazil and Mexico continue to lead:
- In Brazil and Mexico, GMV growth was around 34–35% in constant currency, with items sold up ~42%. [25]
- Argentina still delivered 44% FX‑neutral GMV growth despite macro stress. [26]
Profitability: Earnings Miss, But Still Positive Trajectory
Despite the booming top line, earnings underwhelmed consensus, which has weighed on the share price over recent months:
- EPS: Q3 earnings of $8.32 per share, missing the Zacks consensus by about 11.8%, though still up ~6% YoY. [27]
- Operating income: about $724 million, up 30% YoY, but with operating margin slipping modestly as the company plows money into free shipping, credit expansion, marketing and new categories. [28]
- Net income: roughly $421 million (net margin around 5.7%), hurt by FX losses and a higher effective tax rate – especially from Argentina’s hyperinflation accounting treatment. [29]
MercadoLibre’s own shareholder letter acknowledges that aggressive investments — particularly in Brazil’s free‑shipping threshold, 1P (first‑party) inventory, social commerce and credit — are compressing margins in the near term, but argues these moves are essential to:
- Expand addressable markets
- Strengthen competitive moats
- Lay the groundwork for larger long‑term profitability as scale improves [30]
This pattern was visible earlier in Q2 2025, when Reuters reported a profit miss as lower shipping thresholds in Brazil boosted revenue but dragged margins, pushing EBIT margin down from 14.3% to 12.2% year over year. [31]
4. Analyst Forecasts: Consensus Sees 30–45% Upside
Across multiple data providers, the picture is strikingly consistent: Wall Street remains broadly bullish on MELI.
12‑Month Price Targets
- StockAnalysis:
- 18 analysts
- Average 12‑month target:$2,874
- Implied upside: about 39% from the current ~$2,066 price
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Target range: $2,650 to $3,500. [32]
- TradingView analyst consensus:
- Price target: $2,865.50
- Range: $2,500–$3,500
- Overall rating over the past 3 months: Strong Buy based on 28 analyst opinions. [33]
- TickerNerd:
- 26 Wall Street analysts
- Median target:$2,842.50
- Range: $2,190–$3,500
- Implied upside: around 37–38% from ~ $2,066
- Ratings breakdown: 23 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, overall “Strong Buy” (9.2/10). [34]
- MarketBeat (via the December 6 Amundi piece):
- Average price target: $2,848.82
- Analyst mix: 1 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 3 Hold
- They summarize this as a “Moderate Buy” rating. [35]
- Quiver Quantitative:
- 11 recent analysts
- Median target: about $2,800
- Recent price objectives include $2,600–3,500 from firms such as Scotiabank, Barclays, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. [36]
Short‑Term and 2026 Projections
- StockScan (MELI forecast):
- Near‑term (next 30 days) average target: $2,697.97, implying ~30.6% upside from $2,066.42.
- 12‑month average target: $3,033.03, or about 46.8% above today’s price, with a 2026 average forecast around $3,033, range $2,526.98–3,539.07. [37]
Put simply: most major analyst sources cluster around 30–45% expected upside over the coming 12–18 months, with no major sell calls currently visible in the aggregate data. Of course, these are projections, not guarantees, and can change quickly if macro conditions or company fundamentals shift.
5. What Big Money Is Doing: Hedge Funds, Asset Managers and Congress
Beyond Amundi’s latest move, several data points highlight how institutional capital is handling MELI:
- Hedge Funds & Institutions:
- Coronation Fund Managers:
- A November Motley Fool filing‑coverage note (403‑restricted but visible in search snippets) highlighted Coronation Fund Managers’ purchase of roughly 34,000 shares (~$66 million) in Q3 2025, another vote of confidence from a long‑term emerging‑markets specialist. [40]
- Congressional Trading:
- Quiver also flags that U.S. members of Congress have bought MELI three times in the past six months, with no reported sales, although dollar amounts remain relatively modest. [41]
- Hedge Fund Shuffle, But Bullish Tone Intact:
- A November 29 TS2.Tech wrap‑up noted that while some hedge funds have trimmed positions and others have added, Wall Street commentary remains broadly positive, emphasizing that the “growth story is intact” even as margins come under pressure. TechStock²+1
The big picture: institutional ownership is high, flows are active, and recent disclosures skew more toward accumulation than abandonment.
6. Growth Engines: E‑Commerce, Fintech and Ads
E‑Commerce: Logistics and Free Shipping as a Moat
From Q3 disclosures and the Mexico Business News breakdown:
- MercadoLibre has expanded fulfillment capacity by roughly 41% year over year, enabling faster deliveries and lower shipping costs across its key markets. [42]
- Brazil, its largest market, saw constant‑currency GMV up 34% and items sold up 42% in Q3, with the biggest quarterly addition of new buyers in company history after it lowered the free‑shipping threshold. [43]
- Mexico and Argentina show similar momentum, with items sold up around 34–42% and GMV growth in the mid‑30s to mid‑40s percentages. [44]
The strategy is clear: subsidize shipping and speed to grab market share, even if that dents margins in the near term.
Fintech: Mercado Pago as a “Regional Neobank”
Fintech is now arguably just as important as e‑commerce:
- 72 million monthly active users, +29% YoY. [45]
- Total payment volume up 54% YoY, as per Motley Fool coverage. [46]
- Credit portfolio up 83% to $11 billion, with improving credit quality and stable delinquency rates according to management. [47]
- Launch of credit cards in Argentina, where over 60% of adults lack a credit card, positioning Mercado Pago as a financial inclusion play as well as a profit center. [48]
These numbers underpin the narrative that MercadoLibre is not only “the Amazon of Latin America” but also one of the region’s most important emerging banking and payments platforms.
Advertising & Ecosystem Effects
- Mercado Ads, the company’s advertising arm, grew revenue 63% in constant currency and 56% in USD in Q3, driven by better search, plus strong growth in display and video as new partnerships with Roku and HBO broaden its premium inventory. [49]
- The broader ecosystem now supports about 9.5 million SMEs and entrepreneurs, contributing meaningful slices of GDP in markets such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. [50]
In June 2025, TIME named MercadoLibre one of the “TIME100 Most Influential Companies”, recognizing its role in shaping commerce and financial inclusion across Latin America. [51]
7. Key Risks: Competition, Margins and Macro
Despite the bullish numbers and forecasts, analysts and investors are watching several risks closely:
- Intense Competition
- MercadoLibre faces increasing competition from Amazon in Brazil and from Chinese fast‑fashion and marketplace players like Shein and Temu, which are aggressively targeting Latin America with low prices and fast shipping. [52]
- These rivals can force higher marketing spend and lower take rates, especially in price‑sensitive categories like fashion and general merchandise.
- Margin Pressure from “Growth First” Strategy
- Free‑shipping thresholds, logistics scaling, and credit expansion have already pushed EBIT margins lower in Q2 and kept Q3 margins below where they might otherwise be. [53]
- If macro conditions worsen or competition intensifies, MercadoLibre may need to invest even more, delaying any re‑expansion in margins.
- Credit and FX Risk
- The credit portfolio is growing quickly. While delinquency metrics are currently stable, a downturn could raise default rates and provisioning needs. [54]
- Heavy exposure to Argentina and other volatile economies means FX swings and inflation can cause translation losses and higher effective tax rates, as flagged in the Q3 shareholder letter. [55]
- Valuation Risk
- With the stock trading around 50x trailing earnings and a PEG near 1.5, the bar for future performance remains high. [56]
- Any slowdown in revenue growth, deterioration in credit quality, or macro shock could compress the multiple and undercut the upside implied by current price targets.
8. What to Watch Next
For investors tracking MELI into 2026, key catalysts include:
- Q4 2025 results:
- Evidence that Q3’s strong GMV and payments growth continued through the holiday season, and whether margin pressure stabilizes.
- Early results from the 2033 notes issuance:
- How management deploys the $750 million in new capital, and whether leverage stays within comfortable bounds. [57]
- Credit trends in Mercado Pago:
- Delinquencies, net interest margin, and any signs of stress as the loan book scales. [58]
- Competitive dynamics in Brazil and Mexico:
- Pricing, shipping, and promotion intensity relative to Amazon, Shein, Temu and local players. [59]
- Updated analyst targets and ratings:
- Whether Wall Street maintains its “Strong Buy” consensus and 30–45% upside projections as new data comes in. [60]
Bottom Line: High‑Growth Compounder With Volatile Sentiment
As of December 6, 2025, MercadoLibre stock sits at a crossroads:
- Fundamentals remain extremely strong: high‑30s to 40% revenue growth, rapidly expanding fintech and advertising businesses, and deepening logistics moats across Latin America. [61]
- Capital markets confidence is evident in the oversubscribed investment‑grade bond deal and sustained institutional buying from firms like Amundi and Coronation. [62]
- Valuation and margins are the main sticking points, with the stock well off its highs as investors weigh near‑term profitability against long‑term market dominance. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
For now, the consensus among analysts is that MELI remains a high‑quality, high‑growth compounder with significant upside potential, but also with above‑average risk tied to competition, macro volatility and execution on its aggressive investment program.
As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering investing in MercadoLibre should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification needs, and consult a qualified financial advisor before making decisions.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. simplywall.st, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. finviz.com, 15. finviz.com, 16. finviz.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. mexicobusiness.news, 29. mexicobusiness.news, 30. investor.mercadolibre.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. tickernerd.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.quiverquant.com, 37. stockscan.io, 38. www.quiverquant.com, 39. www.quiverquant.com, 40. www.fool.com, 41. www.quiverquant.com, 42. mexicobusiness.news, 43. mexicobusiness.news, 44. mexicobusiness.news, 45. www.nasdaq.com, 46. finviz.com, 47. www.nasdaq.com, 48. mexicobusiness.news, 49. mexicobusiness.news, 50. mexicobusiness.news, 51. investor.mercadolibre.com, 52. seekingalpha.com, 53. www.reuters.com, 54. www.nasdaq.com, 55. investor.mercadolibre.com, 56. www.marketbeat.com, 57. www.businesswire.com, 58. www.nasdaq.com, 59. www.reuters.com, 60. stockanalysis.com, 61. www.nasdaq.com, 62. www.businesswire.com
