Roku Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) is back in the spotlight. As of December 6, 2025, the streaming-platform specialist is trading around $100 per share, after a roughly 6% jump driven by a fresh analyst upgrade from Guggenheim and renewed optimism around its advertising and platform growth. [1]
That rally caps a strong stretch in 2025: Roku shares are up about 34% year to date but still down nearly 70% over the last five years, underscoring how polarized sentiment remains after the brutal 2022–2023 bear market in growth stocks. [2]
At the same time, Roku has returned to profitability in Q3 2025, guided to further profit in Q4 and into 2026, and attracted a wave of new and higher analyst price targets — even as insiders and some institutional investors continue to trim holdings. [3]
Below is a detailed look at the newest headlines from December 6, 2025, and what they mean for Roku stock’s outlook.
Key takeaways
- Price & performance: Roku closed near $100.09 on December 5, 2025, up about 5.9% on the day and roughly 34% year to date, but still far below its pandemic-era peak. [4]
- Fresh upgrades: Guggenheim lifted its price target to $115 and kept a Buy rating, while Citizens, UBS, Piper Sandler and others have also raised targets in recent weeks. [5]
- Fundamentals improving: Q3 2025 revenue grew 14% year over year to $1.21 billion, with net income of $24.8 million and positive operating income for the first time since 2021, plus guidance for continued profits into Q4 and full-year 2025. [6]
- Mixed signals under the hood: Analysts’ 12‑month price targets cluster around $111–$113, implying low‑teens upside, but valuation models disagree sharply — some see Roku as significantly undervalued, others as modestly overvalued at current levels. [7]
- Heavy insider & institutional activity: Institutions own more than 85% of the float, and insiders have sold nearly half a million shares in the last quarter, even as some hedge funds add aggressively and ARK Invest trims but maintains a large stake. [8]
Roku stock price today and recent performance
MarketBeat’s forecast page and Nasdaq data show Roku closing at $100.09 on December 5, 2025, with after‑hours trading barely higher at $100.11. [9]
News outlets focused on trading action describe:
- A 5.88% one‑day gain, with shares finishing around $100.10 in Friday’s regular session. [10]
- Earlier in the week, Roku trading around $94.54 with a market cap near $13.97 billion, below its 50‑day moving average (~$98.94) but above its 200‑day (~$91.09). [11]
Performance context:
- 1‑week: roughly 3–4% rise, according to recent coverage. [12]
- Year‑to‑date 2025: up about 34.4%, but
- Five‑year: still down roughly 69.7% from prior highs, highlighting how deep the earlier drawdown was. [13]
From a valuation standpoint, several services estimate Roku trading at roughly 3.1–3.3× trailing sales — higher than the U.S. entertainment industry average (around 1.5×), but a discount to some faster‑growing streaming peers that command around 4× sales. [14]
December 6, 2025 headlines: upgrades, rallies and valuation debates
Guggenheim’s price‑target hike fuels the latest surge
A fresh article from StocksToTrade on December 6 notes that Guggenheim lifted its price target on Roku from $110 to $115 while reiterating a Buy rating, citing growth prospects in connected TV (CTV) and new revenue channels. [15]
The same piece highlights:
- Roku’s 5.88% daily jump to about $100.10
- Strong gross margin around 43–44% but
- Continuing negative pre‑tax and net profit margins, reflecting a business still early in its profitability turnaround. [16]
A companion analysis on TimothySykes.com echoes these themes, pointing to:
- A bullish short‑term price trend into the December 1–5 week
- Active trading around support near the mid‑$90s and resistance in the low‑$100s
- The Guggenheim upgrade plus Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions as key catalysts behind the move. [17]
AInvest: “Recovery opportunity” after a 34% YTD rally
Late on December 5, AInvest published a valuation note arguing Roku may still be undervalued despite its big 2025 rebound. According to that analysis: [18]
- Roku stock is up 34.4% in 2025,
- But down 69.7% over five years, and
- A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model pegs fair value around $169 per share, far above the current ~$100 quote.
The report also stresses that this bullish valuation rests on robust assumptions about long‑term streaming demand and advertising budgets, both of which remain heavily debated given competition from giants like Netflix, Amazon, Disney and YouTube.
“Time to buy?” — MarketBeat’s cautious optimism
A December 5 MarketBeat piece titled “Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) Trading 1.7% Higher – Time to Buy?” frames Roku as a high‑beta, improving story rather than a slam‑dunk bargain: [19]
- Shares recently traded near $94.54 with
- 50‑day moving average: $98.94
- 200‑day moving average: $91.09
- Market cap: ~$13.97 billion
- Negative P/E and a beta around 1.98, signaling above‑market volatility.
- Q3 2025 EPS of $0.16 beat the $0.07 consensus on $1.21 billion in revenue (up 14% year on year).
- Analysts still expect full‑year EPS around –0.30, i.e., Roku is barely breakeven on an annual basis.
The article emphasizes that, while the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy”, Roku’s fundamentals remain in transition, with profitability and margin expansion still early‑stage.
Q3 2025: Roku turns the corner on profit and boosts guidance
Roku’s latest earnings report, released October 30, 2025, is central to the current bull narrative.
According to TheWrap’s summary of the quarter: [20]
- Total revenue:
- $1.21 billion, up 14% year over year, roughly in line with Wall Street estimates.
- Net income:
- Swung to a $24.8 million profit, versus a $9.0 million loss a year earlier.
- Operating income:
- Turned positive at $9.5 million, the first positive operating quarter since 2021.
- Segment performance:
- Platform revenue grew 17% to about $1.07 billion, with segment profit climbing to around $547.8 million, powered by streaming‑service distribution and video advertising.
- Devices remained a drag, with revenue down 5% to $146 million and a loss of roughly $22.9 million.
- Engagement:
- Streaming hours reached 36.5 billion for the quarter, up 4.5 billion year on year.
Management’s guidance points to continued profitability:
- For Q4 2025, Roku expects roughly $1.35 billion in revenue and $40 million in net income.
- For full‑year 2025, it projects about $4.69 billion in revenue, $50 million in net income, $2.04 billion in gross profit and around $395 million in adjusted EBITDA. [21]
Investor‑relations summaries add that Roku expects double‑digit platform revenue growth and expanding operating margins into 2026 and beyond, reinforcing the long‑term growth story if execution stays on track. [22]
What Wall Street is saying: upgrades, targets and consensus
Recent high‑profile target hikes
Quiver Quantitative and MarketBeat both highlight a cluster of recent analyst moves: [23]
- Guggenheim (Dec 4, 2025):
- Raised its Roku price target from $110 to $115, rating Buy.
- Citizens JMP (Dec 2, 2025):
- Reiterated “Market Outperform” with a $145 target — currently the Street high.
- UBS (Nov 3, 2025):
- Lifted its target from $95 to $103, rating Neutral.
- Piper Sandler (Nov 3, 2025):
- Upgraded Roku from Neutral to Overweight, boosting its target from $88 to $135.
- Evercore ISI (Oct 31, 2025):
- Raised its target from $100 to $105 with an “In Line” rating.
- J.P. Morgan (Oct 31, 2025):
- Took its target up to $115 while maintaining an Overweight stance.
Finviz, summarizing a related Insider Monkey article, notes that Roku remains a major holding in Cathie Wood’s ARK funds, though ARK trimmed its stake by about 13% in Q3, and that the median Street target implies roughly 19% upside from recent prices. [24]
Consensus: “Moderate Buy” with low‑teens expected upside
MarketBeat’s forecast dashboard, updated through early December, aggregates 27 analyst ratings: [25]
- Rating mix:
- 1 Strong Buy
- 19 Buy
- 6 Hold
- 2 Sell
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target:$113.14
- Range:
- High: $145
- Low: $70
- Implied upside: about 13% from the ~$100 current price.
StockAnalysis, using a slightly different coverage set of 19 analysts, lands at a very similar average target of $111.63, also with a Buy consensus and an implied gain of ~11.5% over the next year. [26]
In other words, Wall Street broadly likes Roku but isn’t expecting a straight‑line moonshot: most forecasts point to moderate upside rather than a parabolic move — although individual targets and models vary widely.
Valuation models disagree sharply
Different valuation frameworks paint divergent pictures:
- DCF / intrinsic value (bullish):
- AInvest’s DCF model estimates fair value around $169 per share, suggesting substantial undervaluation if Roku hits its long‑term growth and margin assumptions. [27]
- Webull’s narrative fair‑value estimate comes in lower, around $110, still above recent quotes but much closer to the Street average. [28]
- Relative valuation (more cautious):
- Alphaspread’s relative‑valuation view puts base‑case value around $75, implying Roku might be overvalued by roughly 20–25% at the mid‑$90s to low‑$100s price range. [29]
- Simply Wall St notes Roku trades on a P/S of about 3.3×, cheaper than some content/streaming peers but more than double the broader industry’s ~1.5×, reflecting both higher growth and higher uncertainty. [30]
For investors, the takeaway is that Roku’s valuation is highly sensitive to growth assumptions around ad spending, user engagement and platform monetization into 2026 and beyond.
Institutional and insider activity: who’s buying, who’s selling?
Institutions: high ownership, active rotation
MarketBeat’s December 6 report on Ardmore Road Asset Management highlights how busy institutional trading has been in Roku: [31]
- Ardmore cut its Roku stake by 52.4% in Q2 2025, selling 275,000 shares and ending the quarter with 250,000 shares, about 0.17% of Roku’s float, worth roughly $22 million.
- Despite that reduction, Roku still represented 1.8% of Ardmore’s portfolio and its 21st‑largest position, suggesting ongoing conviction.
- A range of other asset managers — including DekaBank, Nissay Asset Management, True Vision MN, Stonekeep Investments and Neuberger Berman — modestly increased holdings.
- Overall, about 86% of Roku shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, a typical profile for a mid‑cap growth name.
Quiver Quantitative tracks hedge‑fund flows and reports hundreds of funds have either increased or reduced positions in Roku this year, with some notable moves: large additions from firms like AQR, Two Sigma and D.E. Shaw, and big exits from others such as Baillie Gifford. [32]
Finviz’s aggregation further notes that ARK Investment Management has trimmed its Roku holdings but still holds over 7 million shares, worth more than half a billion dollars, keeping Roku among its top positions. [33]
Insiders: steady selling under trading plans
Insider activity has tilted clearly negative:
- MarketBeat reports that over the last 90 days, Roku insiders have sold about 491,195 shares, worth over $51 million, and now own roughly 13.98% of the company. [34]
- CFO & COO Dan Jedda sold 3,000 shares at an average price of about $99.09 in mid‑November, reducing his holdings by around 3–4% to ~77,400 shares. [35]
- VP & Chief Accounting Officer Matthew C. Banks sold 731 shares at $95.64 on December 1, 2025, for about $69,900, and now holds roughly 6,554 shares; Investing.com notes this sale occurred under a pre‑arranged 10b5‑1 plan. [36]
Quiver Quant’s insider‑trading dashboard shows 77 open‑market insider sales and zero insider purchases over the last six months, largely from senior executives including the CEO and presidents of key business units. [37]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble — executives are often compensated heavily in stock and diversify for personal reasons — but the one‑sided flow is something more risk‑averse investors will keep an eye on.
Strategy check: Roku’s growth drivers heading into 2026
The Q3 earnings coverage and Roku’s own commentary highlight several strategic pillars behind the bull case:
- Platform‑first, ad‑heavy business model
- Platform revenue (ads, subscription sharing, and content distribution) now accounts for the vast majority of gross profit and grew 17% year over year in Q3 2025. [38]
- Roku emphasizes that video advertising on its platform is growing faster than the broader U.S. streaming and digital ad markets, leveraging its scale in ad‑supported TV. [39]
- Deepening engagement via The Roku Channel & originals
- Nearly 90% of The Roku Channel engagement now comes from the Roku experience itself, particularly the home‑screen content row. [40]
- In Q3, Roku expanded its free, ad‑supported TV (FAST) lineup with channels tied to popular series such as The First 48 and Shark Tank, and reported that original series like Solo Traveling with Tracee Ellis Ross became top‑viewed unscripted content on the platform. [41]
- New products and monetization levers
- Roku is testing a major home‑screen update slated for broader rollout in 2026 and sees “significant untapped opportunity” in low‑cost, ad‑free streaming offerings like its new owned‑and‑operated “Howdy” service. [42]
- The company continues to push into international advertising partnerships, such as a recent exclusive ad deal with Warner Bros. Discovery in Mexico, and promotes itself as an “essential partner” in whatever industry consolidation may come. [43]
- Holiday promotions and upcoming investor visibility
- December 6 coverage from StocksToTrade and TimothySykes.com underscores aggressive Black Friday and Cyber Monday price cuts on Roku hardware and subscriptions, aimed at boosting device adoption and funneling more households into its ad‑monetized ecosystem. [44]
- On December 5, Roku announced that CFO & COO Dan Jedda will present at the 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference in London on December 10, giving management another platform to update investors on strategy and 2026 priorities. [45]
Taken together, these moves are intended to solidify Roku’s position as a leading CTV operating system and ad platform, rather than just a hardware manufacturer.
Roku stock forecast for 2026: bull, base and bear narratives
While no forecast is certain, the latest data support three broad narratives that investors are debating.
Bull case: Profitable CTV leader with accelerating platform growth
The bullish argument, reflected in targets from Citibank, Citizens, Piper Sandler and Guggenheim, boils down to this: [46]
- Platform revenue grows mid‑teens to high‑teens annually through 2026, as Piper Sandler’s analyst highlighted, driven by ad spending migrating from linear TV to streaming and Roku’s leading share in U.S. connected TV. [47]
- Operating leverage turns sustained: Q3’s profit is not a one‑off, and margins continue to expand as ad revenue scales faster than operating expenses. [48]
- Hardware remains strategically important but shrinks as a percentage of revenue, keeping the focus on higher‑margin platform economics.
- In that scenario, the Street‑high $145 target or even AInvest’s $169 DCF value could prove realistic over a multi‑year horizon, especially if Roku also sparks re‑rating by delivering several quarters of clean, profitable growth. [49]
Base case: Moderate upside with volatility
The consensus “Moderate Buy” and average targets around $111–$113 effectively describe a base case: [50]
- Revenue continues growing in the low‑ to mid‑teens annually.
- Roku stays modestly profitable, with net margins still thin but improving.
- Macro headwinds in advertising and fierce competition from big‑tech platforms limit multiple expansion; investors are willing to award a P/S around 3×, not the double‑digit multiples of Roku’s pre‑2022 peak. [51]
- Total return over the next 12–18 months is in the low‑teens percentage range, with plenty of swings along the way.
Bear case: Margin progress stalls and ad growth disappoints
More cautious models — including Alphaspread’s relative valuation and some neutral or sell‑rated analysts — focus on risks: [52]
- Roku’s P/S multiple remains above industry averages, making it vulnerable if growth slows or advertising budgets weaken.
- Hardware losses persist or widen, forcing Roku to spend heavily just to keep device and TV share, crimping margins.
- Larger rivals bundle content, hardware and advertising in ways that pressure Roku’s revenue share and pricing power.
- In that scenario, shares could drift back toward the $70–$80 range — roughly where some relative‑value models place fair value — especially if macro conditions deteriorate or Roku misses guidance. [53]
Key risks to watch
Regardless of your stance, several risk factors are front and center in recent coverage and filings:
- Ad‑market cyclicality – Roku is deeply tied to advertising budgets, which can tighten quickly in economic slowdowns. Recent optimism partly reflects hopes for lower interest rates and a healthier ad cycle into 2026; if that doesn’t materialize, multiples could compress. [54]
- Competition from tech giants – Roku competes with Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung, LG, Apple TV and smart‑TV OEM platforms, many of which can subsidize hardware or ads with profits from other segments. That raises questions about Roku’s long‑term bargaining power with content partners and advertisers. [55]
- Insider selling & governance – The heavy skew toward insider sales (77 sales, zero open‑market buys in six months) will worry some investors, even if most transactions are under 10b5‑1 plans. Boards and management will need to keep demonstrating alignment via execution and clear capital‑allocation priorities (like buybacks). [56]
- Hardware economics – Persistent losses in the devices segment underscore how much Roku depends on monetization after the initial device sale. If engagement or ad monetization were to plateau, devices could become an unsustainable drag. [57]
Bottom line: How to think about Roku stock after the December 6 rally
As of December 6, 2025, Roku sits at an interesting crossroads:
- The company has returned to profit, raised guidance, and is signaling confidence in double‑digit platform growth and rising margins into 2026. [58]
- Analysts are broadly constructive, with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and average targets suggesting modest upside from current levels, plus a few notably bullish outliers. [59]
- Valuation models range from deeply bullish (DCF‑style fair values well above $150) to cautious (relative models near $75), reflecting genuine uncertainty about how big and profitable Roku’s platform can become. [60]
- Insider and institutional trading show active repositioning on both sides: hedge funds adding, ARK trimming but staying long, and executives steadily selling stock into strength. [61]
For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility, Roku now represents a leveraged bet on the continued shift from linear TV advertising to streaming, backed by improving profitability but still‑elevated competitive and execution risks.
For more conservative investors, the stock’s history of sharp drawdowns, heavy insider selling, and valuation spread might argue for patience — waiting for either a better entry point or more proof that current momentum can translate into durable, high‑margin cash flows.
Either way, Roku is likely to remain a headline name in 2026, especially around its February Q4 earnings and the December 10 Nasdaq Investor Conference appearance, where management will have a chance to reinforce — or reset — the current bullish narrative. [62]
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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